Health Coronavirus 2020 / Worldwide (Stats live update in OP)

[Chief]

This is PART 1 of this thread.

PART 2 can be found here:

Health - Coronavirus 2020 / Worldwide (Stats live update in OP) Part 2

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/pages/covid-stats-australia/

www.bigfooty.com

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[Purple Suit]

Becoming concerned about the increasing evidence of community transmission in Victoria

In some good news though, Victoria has 291 recoveries (+43 from yesterday).

Recoveries across the country are now at 354. The recovery numbers from most websites are out of date.

If you're recovered, can you still receive a fine for breaking social distancing laws even though you're immune?

 

[Deliverance]

If you're recovered, can you still receive a fine for breaking social distancing laws even though you're immune?

Are we sure about immunity yet?

 

[dumb]

If you're recovered, can you still receive a fine for breaking social distancing laws even though you're immune?

you could still transmit as an intermediary. immunity is a bit of an unknown at this point. it would be great if it was the case.
and if it was the case, they should be working in hospitals.

 

[Forward Press]

Are we sure about immunity yet?

Fairly sure you would be, as testing negative to the virus after it's over indicates your immune system has successfully killed it off and any new virus infections would be dealt with quickly by the new antibodies in your system.

I know that Germany is researching it closely and considering redeploying people with a certificate of immunity into high-risk fields eg front line health care.

 

[Caesar]

the data I posted is not misleading. It would only be misleading if testing principles have changed since 24/3, but seeing as they haven't the variables remain the same.

It is misleading because you are displaying daily cases as a function of the sum of the preceding days, when the patient cohort that was tested today is fundamentally different in terms of size & composition to the cohort tested yesterday - let alone a week ago.

Feel free to post up any data you deem as more relevant, the only way to get a more accurate representation is to take the daily % increase in total active cases, but I can't find the relevant stats to do so. if someone could do that or link me to somewhere that has these statistics specifically ill do it

There was a very good graph on ABC News Breakfast this morning that showed the changes in diagnosis day-by-day, broken down by source of transmission. It is not a complete picture for the reasons mentioned above, but it is better than using a single figure. It shows more clearly the decline in overseas acquired cases (attributable to the closing of the borders) juxtaposed against community spread.

I would really strongly discourage you from using black and white phrases like "most relevant statistic" and "the numbers don't lie". Ultimately all figures need careful interpretation and none on their own provide a really complete view of a situation.

 

[NonPhixion]

But it was basically impossible to maintain exponential growth given our testing rules as there number of people returning from overseas approached zero.

The data also shows that there is no exponential increase in COMMUNITY acquired cases.
I have worked this out for NSW as there are no longer any stats for VIC for some reason.
This is the % increase in total Unknown & known local cases:
24/3 - 10.5%
25/3 - 1.6%
26/3 - 23.6%
27/3 - 36.8%
28/3 - 14.9%
29/3 - 14.8%
30/3 - 8.2%

Ok so the evidence isn't as strong but it still supports the contention that there is no exponential growth, using the largest sample size of NSW.

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

where you getting your numbers from? I often check roylabs stats live stream on the tube

Just checked out roylabs on YouTube and it states we have 358 recoveries.

Generally, I add up the numbers myself. Victoria, Western Australia, ACT's health bodies actively release recovery numbers, whereas the other states and territory do not so I rely upon a combination of health websites, websites such as Worldometers and newspapers.

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-update-victoria-31-march-2020 = Victoria (291 recoveries)

https://ww2.health.wa.gov.au/Articles/A_E/Coronavirus/COVID19-statistics = Western Australia (41 recoveries)

https://www.covid19.act.gov.au/ = Australian Capital Territory (3 recoveries).

https://covid-19.wileam.com/#/AUS = New South Wales (4 recoveries), Queensland (8 recoveries), South Australia (5 recoveries), Tasmania (3 recoveries), Northern Territory (0 recoveries)

291 + 41 + 3 + 4 + 8 + 5 + 3 = 355 recoveries

I'm trying to identify how they got 358, so I'll keep checking.

 

[NonPhixion]

It is misleading because you are displaying daily cases as a function of the sum of the preceding days, when the patient cohort that was tested today is fundamentally different in terms of size & composition to the cohort tested yesterday - let alone a week ago.


There was a very good graph on ABC News Breakfast this morning that showed the changes in diagnosis day-by-day, broken down by source of transmission. It is not a complete picture for the reasons mentioned above, but it is better than using a single figure. It shows more clearly the decline in overseas acquired cases (attributable to the closing of the borders) juxtaposed against community spread.

I would really strongly discourage you from using black and white phrases like "most relevant statistic" and "the numbers don't lie". Ultimately all figures need careful interpretation and none on their own provide a really complete view of a situation.

do you have any statistics that refute my contention that there is currently no sign of exponential growth

 

[SaltPeter]

the data I posted is not misleading. It would only be misleading if testing principles have changed since 24/3, but seeing as they haven't the variables remain the same.
Feel free to post up any data you deem as more relevant, the only way to get a more accurate representation is to take the daily % increase in total active cases, but I can't find the relevant stats to do so. if someone could do that or link me to somewhere that has these statistics specifically ill do it

11,844,681 Coronavirus cases in Australia - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in Australia

www.covidlive.com.au

This gets updated regularly. Some states report later than others

 

[Billy ray]

ineresting looking at flights coming adn going across australia

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24

The world’s most popular flight tracker. Track planes in real-time on our flight tracker map and get up-to-date flight status & airport information.

www.flightradar24.com

austrian air is one - must be a charter, didnt think they flew to oz
plus qatar and singapore still flying in

click on larger icones. ones coming from thailand, malaysia still

virgin flight going perth to christmas island too

 

[Caesar]

do you have any statistics that refute my contention that there is currently no sign of exponential growth

There is no way to know the rate of community transmissions until we start properly testing for it.

All I am saying is to be a little more careful about the data you put together and the conclusions you draw from it. A small amount of statistical knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

If you're recovered, can you still receive a fine for breaking social distancing laws even though you're immune?

I have no idea.

If I had to guess, you probably could be subject to a fine as we're not 100% certain that a previous sufferer cannot be reinfected again.

 

[NonPhixion]

There is no way to know the rate of community transmissions until we start properly testing for it.

All I am saying is to be a little more careful about the data you put together and the conclusions you draw from it. A small amount of statistical knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

All im trying to do is prevent the spread of unnecessary paranoia in people, particularly those that believe this will get out of control. Thank you to the poster above ^ for linking that, although I wish I had that before i manually worked it all out. Anyway I don't even know what im arguing about anymore

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

After just 6 yesterday, 33 tested positive including 6 luggage handlers at the airport. I thought we had been doing well but that new cluster is a concern. You'd hope that everyone at the airport, especially passengers, are complying with self-quarantine.

 

[Scotland]

The testing regime is constrained by number of available tests. If we could test all 25m people then we could have an accurate picture of who has it and from there could work out how it is spreading. But we can't, so we test select people who display symptoms and extrapolate from there. 4,500 isn't the true picture here, but then 160,000 isn't the true picture in the US either. I'd still rather be us than them. Whether you have it or don't, if you need hospital care you will be admitted to hospital. That's the main stat to really keep a close eye on. If our hopsitals and ICUs are being overwhelmed then it's a good bet that our numbers are grossly underrepresented.

 

[Richard Cranium]

Had two customers lick cash/loyalty cards today.

Both old campaigners who shouldn’t be out. They don’t give a toss.

Umm... why?

 

[troybe]

The first bar in Victoria to be fined for flouting the new social distancing rules has been fined $10K. The name of the venue: China Bar. The irony is delicious.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

COVID-19 health information | SA Health

Health information about coronavirus disease (COVID-19) for South Australians. Find COVID-19 testing clinics and read the latest health updates and advice on COVID-19.

www.sa.gov.au

Good site on COVID stats including method of transition. Only 3 confirmed cases of community transition in SA and they would've been in the Barossa (one who is critically ill acquired it from there).

 

[maryjames]

Passed a very elderly couple going for a walk yesterday - i reckon they would have been 85+ years of age. Gave them a wide berth, reckon they would fall over from the common flu let alone the corona flu

Same went for a run and this old guy gave me the rocky fist pump. Was funny but I wide berthed him.

 

[PP34]

Umm... why?

Why did they do it or why are they out?

 

[Biggie]

Another Covid-19 job loss victim here - got let go today.

Already had all me loans on hold as I felt something was coming.

Have clicked the box for Newstart and Super access through My Gov. Awaiting the call.

What a time to be alive eh?

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

Another Covid-19 job loss victim here - got let go today.

Already had all me loans on hold as I felt something was coming.

Have clicked the box for Newstart and Super access through My Gov. Awaiting the call.

What a time to be alive eh?

Sorry to hear that mate

 

[PP34]

They WHAT??

******* hell. Sleep deprivation has led to me missing a part of that sentence. They licked their fingers and touched those items as some people usually do to check cash is separated or to get a card out of their wallet.

Still disgusting and can’t believe people would do this in the middle of a pandemic.

 

[Yidaki]

Gesh people keep bitching about this forced hotel quarantine. Honestly, drink a cup of concrete and harden the * up. Apparently the conditions are "inhumane".

 

[Gameova_]

Another Covid-19 job loss victim here - got let go today.

Already had all me loans on hold as I felt something was coming.

Have clicked the box for Newstart and Super access through My Gov. Awaiting the call.

What a time to be alive eh?

Things were better when big poppa was breathing.