Prediction Do you believe the AFL will ever be the same again?

[jatz14]

A new administration for the sport and a new national league would be formed. Hopefully in that circumstance the two bodies would be separate.
The AFL running the sport has proven hopelessly myopic when it comes to every other level of the game.

If things got so bad it ended the league, the debris would be vastly insufficient to resurrect a national comp. Best you could hope for would be state leagues, and probably semi pro at that, and the years where a sport could prosper at that level only are decades past. If conditions are good enough that you could form a pro national league under different administration, then the AFL will not die anyway.

If the AFL dies, the much repeated boast from Soccer fans that they will take over will finally have a chance to come true. Soccer will be hurt by this, but most of the A league was done, they will be in a position to recover faster, and fans will have foreign leagues to follow and national teams to support.

Footy will have state league teams teams that are a shadow of their former selves.

That situation would be terminal imop.

As a side note, changing the administration would be like a struggling club with the best coach they could get, sacking him and hiring someone else, and thinking this will make things better. It sill not. Gil has done a decent job imop, and AFL still remains the best run sport in Australia, that being the case, wholesale changes to admin are more likely to make it worse than better.

 

[Capriati]

Gil McLachlan Says All 18 Teams Will Survive The Coronavirus Crisis

On the Saturday Rub

www.triplem.com.au

Well that is bad news for all the non Victorian Vultutes who want some Melbourne bases clubs to fold, merge or relocate.

The AFL is not like the NBA, where there is only two foundation clubs/franchises still playing in their original cities (The Boston Celtics and The New York Knicks)

Of course Gil would say that. He is on his way to the bank to get a 500 million dollar loan.

18 clubs survive if the 18 clubs collectively decide that they want 18 clubs to survive.

All 18 clubs are safe for 2020. Who knows what could happen beyond that.

Once the loan is secured and AFL starts distributing the liquidity packages to clubs, in lieu of the monthly distributions, we will see how kumbaya, we are one, all the clubs are. We have already seen Sydney come out and make a case for reinstating COLA during the hiatus to support swans players.

If West Coast, Collingwood and Richmond (and to a lesser extent, Adelaide/Sydney) feel they are getting the short straw we may see some fractures and disagreements about how the competition moves forward.

Once those cracks appear, vulnerable clubs should start being worried.... Looking at you St Kilda/North Melbourne.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Neither of them failed.

They are both back right at the top now. (Albeit Man City have been banned from European competitions for the next couple years...)

For the short term they did.
I would say Manchester United alone would be worth more than all the AFL clubs put together.

 

[Minidisc MD]

Amazing how many people are almost gleeful at clubs dying or being relegated, especially Melbourne.

you'd have to be a bit ****ed in the head to want the oldest professional sports team in the world, that we're privileged to have in our parochial game, that has had so many unique characters and war history and ups and downs, to become semi-professional or worse: merged. no shock it's knob jockey Eagles supporters.

I'm a bit of a sourpuss but I wouldn't even want a club I hate like Essendon to die.

 

[dean33]

Of course Gil would say that. He is on his way to the bank to get a 500 million dollar loan.

18 clubs survive if the 18 clubs collectively decide that they want 18 clubs to survive.

All 18 clubs are safe for 2020. Who knows what could happen beyond that.

Once the loan is secured and AFL starts distributing the liquidity packages to clubs, in lieu of the monthly distributions, we will see how kumbaya, we are one, all the clubs are. We have already seen Sydney come out and make a case for reinstating COLA during the hiatus to support swans players.

If West Coast, Collingwood and Richmond (and to a lesser extent, Adelaide/Sydney) feel they are getting the short straw we may see some fractures and disagreements about how the competition moves forward.

Once those cracks appear, vulnerable clubs should start being worried.... Looking at you St Kilda/North Melbourne.

From what I have heard clubs are working together as a collective like they never have previously. I can’t see them suddenly turning on each other like bogans running towards the toilet paper aisle. I think all clubs will survive however there will have to be casualties most probably in the football department.

 

[dean33]

Amazing how many people are almost gleeful at clubs dying or being relegated, especially Melbourne.

you'd have to be a bit f’ed in the head to want the oldest professional sports team in the world, that we're privileged to have in our parochial game, that has had so many unique characters and war history and ups and downs, to become semi-professional or worse: merged. no shock it's knob jockey Eagles supporters.

I'm a bit of a sourpuss but I wouldn't even want a club I hate like Essendon to die.

Clubs aren’t normal businesses otherwise you’d merge a lot of them as it makes “business” sense. What people forget is the history, tradition and emotion that each club carries with their thousands of supporters. The league will do everything they can to make sure all 18 clubs survive.

 

[Minidisc MD]

Clubs aren’t normal businesses otherwise you’d merge a lot of them as it makes “business” sense. What people forget is the history, tradition and emotion that each club carries with their thousands of supporters. The league will do everything they can to make sure all 18 clubs survive.

People love calling AFL clubs a business when it suits but also footy clubs when it suits. there's no middle ground in that they're a bit of both and unique because of it.

 

[Capriati]

From what I have heard clubs are working together as a collective like they never have previously. I can’t see them suddenly turning on each other like bogans running towards the toilet paper aisle. I think all clubs will survive however there will have to be casualties most probably in the football department.

Like I said, that is while .

Sydney came out today talking about wanting to reinstate COLA for their players:

"The Swans are ready to fight for lower-earning Sydney players to receive more protection for living in Australia’s most expensive city should savage AFL salary cuts push them to the brink."

No Cookies | The Mercury

No Cookies

www.themercury.com.au

Real footy podcast spoke this week that it is really the smaller vulnerable clubs pushing this "we are working together like never before narrative" while behind the scenes bigger clubs have more diverse views and there are differences in opinion at the bigger clubs (listen at 11 minutes 50 seconds).

'Mergers will come back onto the table' - Real Footy Podcast

Caroline Wilson, Jake Niall and Michael Gleeson discuss the long-term impacts of the shutdown on the game, the AFL's dispute with players over pay cuts and why both the league executive and the players need to take bigger cuts, and quickly. Plus, a look back on the round that was, the importance...

omny.fm

Just wait until the AFL uses the 11 herbs and spices recipe to divvy up the 500 million loan and see how some clubs react. That will tell us a lot.

 

[Capriati]

Amazing how many people are almost gleeful at clubs dying or being relegated, especially Melbourne.

you'd have to be a bit f’ed in the head to want the oldest professional sports team in the world, that we're privileged to have in our parochial game, that has had so many unique characters and war history and ups and downs, to become semi-professional or worse: merged. no shock it's knob jockey Eagles supporters.

I'm a bit of a sourpuss but I wouldn't even want a club I hate like Essendon to die.

History doesn't bring in the dollars.

If small Melbourne clubs were able to pay their own bills and pay their own way we wouldn't even be having this conversation. No one is talking about Richmond/Collingwood/Carlton/Essendon/Hawthorn merging or folding. They have been able to thrive in a competitive market in the national era.

Rationalising the competition and getting rid of a couple of Melbourne teams would make the entire competition stronger, contribute to a fairer fixture, and lift the standard of the competition.

Why does wanting that make someone a knob jockey (homophobic slur)?

Don't worry, if a Melbourne club folds, we will make sure they have a great spot in the MCG sports museum to showcase all their history from the state league era.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Haven't got time to read this whole thread so apologies if this has already been raised, but I suspect a number of players will certainly never be the same again.

I fear a number of them will totally go off the rails.

Highly focussed young lads, often very emotionally underdeveloped, coddled, tending to narcissism, in the peak of physical condition, a year of their lifelong dream of senior footy played in front of tens of thousands just snatched from their grasp... the weekly catharsis of physical battle just gone... bored out of their scones with no viable outlet in sight... some of them are really going to fall to bits.

 

[Blackas87]

History doesn't bring in the dollars.

If small Melbourne clubs were able to pay their own bills and pay their own way we wouldn't even be having this conversation. No one is talking about Richmond/Collingwood/Carlton/Essendon/Hawthorn merging or folding. They have been able to thrive in a competitive market in the national era.

Rationalising the competition and getting rid of a couple of Melbourne teams would make the entire competition stronger, contribute to a fairer fixture, and lift the standard of the competition.

Why does wanting that make someone a knob jockey (homophobic slur)?

Don't worry, if a Melbourne club folds, we will make sure they have a great spot in the MCG sports museum to showcase all their history from the state league era.

Those clubs do bring in the dollars. Go have a look at those clubs revenue before AFL distribution. My club generated $35 million.

the smaller clubs have paid off the AFL’s greatest asset.

how would losing these teams make the competition stronger? Just because you say it will doesn’t mean it will. How will it make it stronger?

 

[Capriati]

Those clubs do bring in the dollars. Go have a look at those clubs revenue before AFL distribution. My club generated $35 million.

the smaller clubs have paid off the AFL’s greatest asset.

how would losing these teams make the competition stronger? Just because you say it will doesn’t mean it will. How will it make it stronger?

Here is 2019 revenue after distributions have been deducted. (GWS and Adelaide's numbers weren't available):

Essentially the 4 small Melbourne clubs are ahead of only GCS.

Club $ in millions

West Coast	$91.27​
Richmond	$79.73​
Hawthorn	$64.95​
Collingwood	$61.89​
Essendon	$56.99​
Carlton	$51.74​
Geelong	$47.56​
Brisbane	$36.25​
Port Adelaide	$38.91​
Fremantle	$46.18​
Sydney	$37.98​
Melbourne	$32.27​
St Kilda	$26.04​
Western Bulldogs	$28.29​
North Melbourne	$26.98​
Gold Coast	$15.96​

 

[Red Bull]

Don’t want to see any club perish but if it becomes inevitable, just something to toss around ...

16 team competition.

2 x WA
2 x SA
2 x NSW
2 x QLD
8 x VIC

Victorian teams :

Carlton Blues
Collingwood Magpies
Essendon Bombers
Geelong Cats
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Richmond Tigers
South East Melbourne Saints
Western Bulldogs

North and Melbourne merge to become North Melbourne Kangaroos :
Based at Arden st and playing in the current Melbourne jumper.
North basically retain their name, home base and Kangaroo moniker.
Melbourne finally have a home base and importantly, retain their historical jumper/colours.

Hawthorn and St.Kilda merge to become South East Melbourne (SEM) Saints :
Based at Moorabbin and playing in the current Hawthorn jumper.
St.Kilda retain their home base and Saints moniker.
Hawthorn have their desired new home base without the enormous expense of Dingley and importantly, retain their historical jumper/colours.
St.Kilda representing the south and Hawthorn representing the east have of course previous history at Waverley.

Western Bulldogs represent the west of Melbourne, Geelong speaks for itself and Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond basically have supporter tentacles spread Victoria/Australia wide.

The Fixture :

Each Victorian club plays the other Victorian clubs twice = 14 games.
Each Victorian club plays the “interstate” clubs once = 8 games.
Total = 22 H&A games.

Each “Interstate” club plays the other “interstate” clubs twice = 14 games.
Each “Interstate” club plays the Victorian clubs once = 8 games.
Total = 22 H&A games.

Home games :

Victorian teams :
7 games against other Victorian clubs.
4 games against “interstate” clubs.
Total = 11 home games.
Hosting “interstate” teams template :
Year 1 : WC, ADEL, SYD, BRIS
Year 2 : FREO, PORT, GWS, GC
Hosting 1 club from each state each year on a rotational basis seems fair.

Away games :

Victorian teams :
7 games against other Victorian clubs.
4 games against “interstate” clubs.
Total = 11 away games.
Travelling for “interstate” games template :
Year 1 : FREO, PORT, GWS, GC
Year 2 : WC, ADEL, SYD, BRIS
Travelling to 1 “interstate” club from each state each year on a rotational basis seems fair.

The same H&A game philosophy would of course apply to the “interstate” teams.

Again, don’t want to see any club perish but if change is inevitable, merging within the same state, namely Victoria, seems to make the most sense as the AFL would look to take advantage of any NRL misfortune in the northern states by keeping and bolstering their clubs in that region.

 

[Blackas87]

Here is 2019 revenue after distributions have been deducted. (GWS and Adelaide's numbers weren't available):

Essentially the 4 small Melbourne clubs are ahead of only GCS.

West Coast	$91.27​
Richmond	$79.73​
Hawthorn	$64.95​
Collingwood	$61.89​
Essendon	$56.99​
Carlton	$51.74​
Geelong	$47.56​
Brisbane	$36.25​
Port Adelaide	$38.91​
Fremantle	$46.18​
Sydney	$37.98​
Melbourne	$32.27​
St Kilda	$26.04​
Western Bulldogs	$28.29​
North Melbourne	$26.98​
Gold Coast	$15.96​

The question was how would losing those clubs make the league stronger? Melbourne made $32.27 million without AFL distribution.
The salary cap was $12.75 million 2019

 

[Capriati]

The question was how would losing those clubs make the league stronger? Melbourne made $32.27 million without AFL distribution.
The salary cap was $12.75 million 2019

Given the issues the NRL are having at the moment, having a presence in QLD and NSW with 2 teams each is imperative to the future growth of the game. The time is now to streamline the competition, and invest the AFL's money in clubs that are financially viable and hold strategic importance.

Melbourne also made an operating loss of 1.98 million and is in considerable debt.

The club simply doesn't have a financial model that holds up unless the economy is in good shape. The days of eternal economic growth are behind us.

You don't even have a home base with club admin and facilities in the same spot. They are 25 odd KM apart. Melbourne is going the way of the Ole Roy Boys, the competitions vagrants. Unfortunately history and tradition don't pay the bills in 2020.

 

[north_lad]

I hope they add two more victorian teams to make it an even 20, and every Eagles fan suffers a stroke as a result

 

[Capriati]

I hope they add two more victorian teams to make it an even 20, and every Eagles fan suffers a stroke as a result

Why do you hate us so much?

 

[Blackas87]

Melbourne also made a lost of 1.98 million and is in considerable debt.

Given the issues the NRL are having at the moment, having a presence in QLD and NSW with 2 teams each is imperative to the future growth of the game. The time is now to streamline the competition, and invest the AFL's money in clubs that are financially viable and hold strategic importance.

You don't even have a home base with club admin and facilities in the same spot. They are 25 odd KM apart. Melbourne is going the way of the Ole Roy Boys, the competitions vagrants. Unfortunately history and tradition don't pay the bills in 2020.

So you can’t answer the question?

Melbourne went in debt in 2013 to gain assets worth over $8 million, have paid off about $6.5 million. Their assets out weigh the debt.

is Melbourne’s training base an issue for you and Western Australia?

 

[Capriati]

So you can’t answer the question?

Melbourne went in debt in 2013 to gain assets worth over $8 million, have paid off about $6.5 million. Their assets out weigh the debt.

is Melbourne’s training base an issue for you and Western Australia?

There are simply too many clubs in Victoria. We need to consolidate them and then we can use that money to invest in Non-traditional AFL markets like NSW and QLD. Expanding the game and increasing the size of the pie to increase market share is where we will achieve growth.

For reference Melbourne & North have roughly the same net assets as GWS despite being around for a century longer.

 

[Blackas87]

There are simply too many clubs in Victoria. We need to consolidate them and then we can use that money to invest in Non-traditional AFL markets like NSW and QLD. Expanding the game and increasing the size of the pie to increase market share is where we will achieve growth.

For reference Melbourne & North have roughly the same net assets as GWS despite being around for a century longer.


View attachment 848280

We have already invested in Qld and NSW.

simply too many teams in Victoria? how will losing teams make the league stronger?

 

[Dusty0004]

So you can’t answer the question?

Melbourne went in debt in 2013 to gain assets worth over $8 million, have paid off about $6.5 million. Their assets out weigh the debt.

is Melbourne’s training base an issue for you and Western Australia?

The west aussies think they’re some kind of white night. They’re really sensitive atm

 

[north_lad]

Why do you hate us so much?

I don't particularly

 

[Blackas87]

I don't particularly

He hates Victorians for some reason

 

[greatwhiteshark]

We have already invested in Qld and NSW.

simply too many teams in Victoria? how will losing teams make the league stronger?

I think most people know if we had a 12 team league at the top we would have a much stronger league with much more of the elite talent in those 12 clubs.
But this league didn’t get formed overnight and it was a Victorian league which expanded into a national comp and hence that carried forward all the Vic clubs.
In a different universe all those Vic clubs would not of made it to the national stage but that’s not what the reality is.
I don’t want any clubs to go at any level, I do however want clubs to pay their own way and live within their landscape, the AFL trying to have all clubs in an equal foot is where multi millions of dollars are wasted every year.
If Melbourne can afford 30 people in their football department and Collingwood can afford 70 the I don’t see what the issue is with that. Spend within your means and not try to be a club you are not.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

The west aussies think they’re some kind of white night. They’re really sensitive atm

I don’t know why some of my fellow West Aussies comments they do, we have not a thing to worry about over here. My club the Eagles have no issues moving forward no matter what the lay of the land ends up.