Prediction Do you believe the AFL will ever be the same again?

[Cuzz09]

Yeah. Just say for the greater good and to actually have a comp these players/coaches etc on hubdreds of thousands of dollars will now all receive for the next 5 years $50k.

Players can work other jobs in the mean time. Make it less professional for a while maybe.

Think outside the box.

I reckon fans would love it and would pour into games and from there it flows again. Without losing any teams.

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[juss]

I could see a lot of changes because of this. I'd be surprised if we ever saw all the 2019 variables ever again.

 

[RUNVS]

Yeah. Just say for the greater good and to actually have a comp these players/coaches etc on hubdreds of thousands of dollars will now all receive for the next 5 years $50k.

Players can work other jobs in the mean time. Make it less professional for a while maybe.

Think outside the box.

I reckon fans would love it and would pour into games and from there it flows again. Without losing any teams.

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Not easy for players to work other jobs though at the moment given how bad the jobs market is about to get.

 

[Cuzz09]

Yeah i was just saying if they wanted to/could find extra work it wouldn't be stopped

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[greatwhiteshark]

There is much panic around and for good reason but the game will survive as will the league if common sense prevails.
Things will have to change though short term to get back on track and that all comes back to the clubs and players doing the right things short term for the long term gain.

1) Coaching staff and football departments could easily be gutted by 2/3. Let’s face it how many of us really believe clubs need all these people to coach and maintain a footy team.

2) 30% pay cut to all players and Salary cap floor dropped for 2 seasons to 70%. Clubs can then choose to pay their players on their performance and not simply because they have to no matter how they perform.

3) Negotiate better ground leasing deals for a brief 2-3 year period. The stadiums need footy so I am sure a deal can be done to help the future.

4) Head office (AFL House) to lead the way by cutting its staff by 50% and get rid of its job for the boys program. All good and well when you are making millions but for 2-3 years they can cut right back to the basics and save the game multi millions of dollars a year.

It will take a real sensible together effort b the league and it’s clubs, it will be hard on many clubs but it’s the only way, pretty much return to a semi professional league for a couple of seasons.

The problem will be player greed, League greed, club greed. I am not sure that they could achieve it and if they don’t then the outcome will be as mentioned in many posts above that clubs will fold.

There will be no way forward short term with our clubs and the league as they are and trying to continue as it was, if they try to maintain as is and clubs fold then I will have no sympathy.
Huge costs must be cut to every single department in the Leagues at all levels for it to return healthy down the track.

 

[Sttew]

IMO the AFL will rebound bigger and better. It may take a few seasons. The AFL is simply too important

EDIT: I no longer hold the above view

 

[Cuzz09]

Yeah just go back to 1 coach, 1 runner, playing squad.

That alone could save a few million per club

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[RUNVS]

2) 30% pay cut to all players and Salary cap floor dropped for 2 seasons to 70%. Clubs can then choose to pay their players on their performance and not simply because they have to no matter how they perform.

This should be done anyway as it is ridiculous that Gold Coast need to pay their players almost the same amount that Richmond pay theirs. I mean it gives the clubs at the bottom of the ladder no war chest at all to go after bigger named players.

 

[Ricmel]

I think there is no question that several clubs will fold (unless governments step in and I can't see that happening). They may not be the clubs you think are in danger.

Then hypothetically we are back playing next year (big assumption). The current broadcast rights form just over half of AFL revenue but are dependent on number of games played and other specs. It is locked into end 2022 but likley AFL will not be able to fulfil commitments in 2021 so will be adjusted significantly downward - a couple of the current broadcast partners, Foxtel and Seven will be in their own battle to survive.

The other "half" of the revenue is from AFL sponsors, merchandising, licensing etc. You could expect all of this to be significantly down in the next 3 - 4 years as corporations slash all discretionary spending. At the same time clubs are going to lose significant revenue and so rely on the AFL at a time when AFL is under pressure for revenue and cash flow.

The core issue is going to be the total lack of liquidity/capacity in the market place for the next 3- 4 years at least.

It is going to be a vicious spiral that the AFL, clubs and fans are going to have to negotiate. Club mergers will make sense, particularly in the short term, player and staff payments are going to be savaged and this may see some players - particularly the mid to lower rung players leave the game (like in 70s and 80s when they did not come into the game).

My guess is down to something like 10 - 12 clubs, significant cost cutting and less "coporate" style competition. Unless governments step in.

 

[RUNVS]

I think the AFL would be desperate to keep at least 12 teams, ideally 14 teams. Any less and the game begins to feel less important if that makes sense. I know for instance the A-League is hurt by having so few teams. It just isn't a great look.

 

[_Mike_]

I don’t see this season being played out and cancelled based on what’s going on. The AFL and clubs need to be pragmatic when it comes to determining the future state of the game.

What that future will look like will be a guess however if the AFL found itself in a position of needing to reduce the amount of clubs in order to consolidate its future, now is the time to think of the alternative AFL structure.

 

[RUNVS]

For fans of the clubs who are usually in the firing line for these sort of things how are you feeling right now? Is it more palatable for your club to disappear because of this virus than it was when the AFL were trying to relocate, merge or otherwise end your club since this is in no way the AFL's idea?

 

[james Dean]

Can’t see GWS, Gold Coast surviving, they are living off AFL life support, which probably won’t be there after this.

St K, North, Dogs, Dees and Lions will all be in strife too.

 

[RUNVS]

Can’t see GWS, Gold Coast surviving, they are living off AFL life support, which probably won’t be there after this.

St K, North, Dogs, Dees and Lions will all be in strife too.

Lions are 100%. No way is the AFL giving up their chunk of Queensland.

To me the "safe" clubs are

Hawthorn
Richmond
Carlton
Essendon
Collngwood
Geelong
West Coast
Fremantle
Adelaide
Sydney
Brisbane

I want to put Port Adelaide in there too but it was not so long ago that their finances were awful so I am not sure about their situation. I think the AFL, or whatever rises from the ashes would want two clubs in South Australia though.

 

[basashi]

When things go back to normal they will bounce back very quickly and people will start to forget how serious it all was.

 

[Kwality]

Didn’t the AFL make a $50m surplus last year including all the money they wasted on AFLX, China, India, AFLW, jobs for he boys and an executive which is 50-75% overpaid?

Too big to fail, the Vic Gov will bail them out.

IF you are right will the excesses of yesterday be continued when the taxpayer is funding it?
Well remember the AFL turning a loss because it simply spent more than it earned, it is not immune from reality.

 

[Kwality]

One thing that has made the AFL's finances a little tighter is buying Marvel. I suspect a lot of the AFL's reserve cash went into that purchase, which seemed like a great idea at the time but might be less of a great idea now. Still, it is good to have such an expensive asset.

They borrowed $180 mil at the same time.

 

[Kwality]

When things go back to normal they will bounce back very quickly and people will start to forget how serious it all was.

Where will the bounce back come from?

 

[adammania9]

AFL won’t let any clubs go under but the AFL won’t have the money to make those decisions - somebody else has the money that the AFL will need to borrow and those third parties could have a massive influence on the future of the league if they are in control of how that money is distributed. Some parties might not be interested in having their money loaned to clubs who can’t turn a profit without those AFL handouts which are no longer there (or again, are funded by a third party).

 

[Asifhe Givashe]

AFL won’t let any clubs go under but the AFL won’t have the money to make those decisions - somebody else has the money that the AFL will need to borrow and those third parties could have a massive influence on the future of the league if they are in control of how that money is distributed. Some parties might not be interested in having their money loaned to clubs who can’t turn a profit without those AFL handouts which are no longer there (or again, are funded by a third party).

In that scenario, us smaller clubs who have spent the best part of 20 years dealing with a crippling stadium deal paying off the $1bn asset will come together and sue the AFL for a restriction of trade.
There should be no clubs under any financial stress because of the greedy AFL.
Good times ahead.

 

[Roddy]

If there's any sport/sporting body in Australia that's in a position to pull through this, it's the AFL.

 

[Johnny_Dogg4]

i guess the afl now cant afford to spend that huge amount $$ for their new LOGO

 

[Coach_Required]

IMO the AFL will rebound bigger and better. It may take a few seasons. The AFL is simply too important

The only problem with this is that the AFL rely on corporate sponsorship & TV Rights and right now you only have to take a look at companies stock values to realise that money is about to dry up.

Companies around Australia have had to let go thousands of employees to stay afloat, this has a ripple effect in the economy.

We are a long way back from bouncing back especially if this virus is around for as long as they are suggesting. I hope you are right but I don't see it.

 

[basashi]

Where will the bounce back come from?

From people who want desperately to put it all behind them and get on with things

 

[Kwality]

From people who want desperately to put it all behind them and get on with things

Who will be paying them?