Draft Winners and Losers

[Meteoric Rise]

Winners:
1: Brisbane: cashing in yet again on a flawed AFL system

2: Richmond: but I think they stuffed their mix of picks. Too many key positions when I think the direction of the league is going smaller.

3: Tauru: best key position in the draft and Travaglia. Great rebuilding pieces and Dodson to develop under Marshall.

Losers:
1: North. Sorry but you just don't trade your Future 1 unless you're getting a player like Petracca in your door. Not Matt Whitlock.

2: Laura Kane. She couldn't even pronounce the surnames of the players. She also didn't change the points system despite having a chance to do so immediately. She also had the chance to bring in 2 years of future trading but failed to do so.

3: Newbies who are suddenly annoyed about the unfair F/S and NGA rules. The time to be annoyed was 5-10 years ago. Not now. Sure, the competition isn't fair to the point where flags don't mean much anymore but it's been this case for a very very long time. Unless you've been consistently banging on about it for years like me, coming out now to state your disgust just seems like you've been living under a rock.

2017 flag team ave height 186.4cm
2018 187.9cm
2019 185.7cm
2020 185.5cm
2021 187.1cm
2022 188.5cm
2023 189.0cm
2024 188.2cm

How exactly is the trend moving to smaller teams?

 

[hilly]

It's too ear...

• Lions paid unders for Ashcroft v2 and to a lesser extent Marshall
• Richmond good mix - we all know they had a lot of picks
• Thought Port did well at each pick
• WCE would be happy with Allan at 16
• NM - FOS is a belter. Whitlock is the right type but the cost was excessive and frankly I'd be shocked if this wasn't a top five pick in 2025
• Crows continued their solid exchange period with Draper (SA) who is a can't miss and they paid little for Welsh
• Geelong took four no-names who will probably make the AA squad in 2027
• Swans - see above
• Saints did well to get Said so late
• Jagga could have gone #1
• Coll picks were late, time will tell
• Ess blinked on Kako. Gerreyn is boom or bust
• GWS seemingly took Angove way too early but their talent ID is decent
• Hawks did okay to get Mraz at 35
• Could the Dees have gone with a tall instead of X.Lindsay?

 

[Ancient Tiger]

If anything I think Richmond actually lost the draft. At almost every position they picked the worse of available options.

Pick #1 - I think Jagga Smith was the clear better pick here, Richmond need a 300 game player who will be the core of their side for years, Lalor has more question marks.
Pick #7 - This was ripe to trade up into the top 5 and grab one of Lalor, O'Sullivan, Draper or Langford to partner with Jagga, I don't rate Smilie as being on this level and think he's likely overvalued due to his size. I think they missed the trick by not doing the trade.
Pick #12 - Taj Hotton, rarely does the player who missed their 18s with a serious injury perform at the elite elite level. Joel Selwood might be one of the few examples across the last two decades. I think this selection was a reach.

I must admit I didn't focus too much on the talls this years as I was looking primarily into the midfielders with those players being the target of Carlton's pick #3 but I have serious questions about the talent of key position players who fall to #14, #21 and #23 in a midfield heavy draft. If they were any good they would have been automatic Top #5 options for teams like North and the Saints - I don't know much about them but they scream Matthew Watson, Pat McCarthy and Luke Mitchell to me more than they scream Roughead and Buddy or Curnow and McKay

Big call but I think we'll look back on this draft as one of the worst nights in Richmond's history. The night that could put them at the bottom of the ladder for a decade.

Lmfao.

Jagga had the whole year off to train and maximise his 71kg frame. Lalor had no preseason. We didn’t draft for next year mate, we drafted for 3 to 5 years time. Smilie is already bigger than Cripps. He is agile and a better kick than Cripps. If you can’t imagine how much of a bull he will be with a few preseasons under his belt, you have no imagination at all. Same with Hotton. He was top 5 before his ACL We don’t need him to be a superstar for at least 2 or 3 years. Talent doesn’t just disappear. Plenty of players have done an ACL and have come back without a problem.

 

[Rich01]

Just on this. It's been debated ad nauseam on our board, but we don't just need mids. We needed a mid from that top 7, one that can come in and play day 1 and make a difference. When they went before our pick, why grab any mid, we have a heap on the list already.

What those 1st 3 selections do have is versatility Travaglia at both ends in a Sicily mould, Tauru is able to play midfield, and Barrat , KPP, another who has shown he can play both fwd and back.

we could potentially cover Sinclair, Wilkie and Battle in one draft

Forget versatility.
Play Travaglia off half back for his career for 250 games to great effect.
Tauru should be played as that third forward. His field kicking is a liability in the back half. He’ll be a great foil to king. And settle Barrat in one position whether it’s forward or back.

Address mids by getting LDU next year and the best mid at their first pick.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Brisbane clearly won the draft. Got Aschroft for the price of four hand jobs.

 

[draft_enjoyer]

It's not a stretch to say Richmond need to be the winners and by a long way in this draft. Coming off a two win season and then culling any remaining players with reasonable value - if they have more misses than hits then an already ugly predicament is only going to get a whole lot worse. You'd be crossing everything if you were a Tiggie hoping you picked the right ones.

Why? If we get them all wrong what's the worst that can happen? We'll just get another crack at the elite end of the draft.

No pissfarting around in the middle of the ladder.

 

[draft_enjoyer]

Tigers, brissy and saints are the clear winners for mine.

The saints may not have gotten their elite midfielder, but premierships are won by the types of players that Travaglia and Tauru are. Plus, Dodson was a massive bargain and is probably the best ruckman in the draft.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Why? If we get them all wrong what's the worst that can happen? We'll just get another crack at the elite end of the draft.

No pissfarting around in the middle of the ladder.

Getting them all wrong would be a disaster of epic proportions. You had about 3 drafts worth of good picks and getting those good picks cost you almost all your good players that are worth anything, so getting them all wrong would guarantee a North-like extended stay at the bottom of the ladder.

 

[SC_Power]

Brisbane clearly won the draft. Got Aschroft for the price of four hand jobs.

Nonsense.


Can’t get a HJ that cheap.

 

[draft_enjoyer]

Getting them all wrong would be a disaster of epic proportions. You had about 3 drafts worth of good picks and getting those good picks cost you almost all your good players that are worth anything, so getting them all wrong would guarantee a North-like extended stay at the bottom of the ladder.

The dees had a North like stay at the bottom and they won a flag before most other clubs.

 

[Angus Young]

Forever to be known as Laura Clown.

Laura Token Clown

 

[SC_Power]

7 Richard Tamblings would be some effort.

Coulda turned out like this

#1 key forward, elite shot for goal

#7 inside mid, bursts through tackles

#12 head down, break from stoppage, uncatchable mid

#14 ball magnet, average pace but elite hands

#17 elite marking forward

#23 small forward, full of tricks

#28 half back flanker with silky moves

 

[H00t]

Getting them all wrong would be a disaster of epic proportions. You had about 3 drafts worth of good picks and getting those good picks cost you almost all your good players that are worth anything, so getting them all wrong would guarantee a North-like extended stay at the bottom of the ladder.

Never mind them even being all wrong.

Even if they only turn into role players it still won’t be enough to propel the tigers anywhere.

They need 3-4 players to turn into A graders to be looking to get anywhere.

 

[Arr0w]

Winners: Cal Twomey
Losers: Mick Ablett's botox technician

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Getting them all wrong would be a disaster of epic proportions. You had about 3 drafts worth of good picks and getting those good picks cost you almost all your good players that are worth anything, so getting them all wrong would guarantee a North-like extended stay at the bottom of the ladder.

To get them all go wrong would take some doing. You are talking 8 players with profiles averaging probably 50% chance to play 150+ games. To wipe out on all 8 would be around the same chance as all 8 making it. It would be around 250-1 odds to occur.

More realistically, the concern would be Hotton & Trainor wiping out due to leg & concussion problems. This would significantly limit Richmond's upside from the draft. But it isn't just how many make it, it is how good they are. The last Richmond list build showed that.

2006 Riewoldt, Edwards
2007 Cotchin, Rance
2008 nil
2009 Martin, Astbury, Grimes
2010 nil
2011 Ellis, B
2012 Vlastuin, McIntosh
2013 nil

So in the first 8 years of that list build, the club only produced 10 of its Premiership players through the draft. But when you look at who those players are, there are 6 x AA players + Vlastuin, who most Richmond supporters think should be. There were only 2 x top 5 picks in that lot. I think in that 8 year period, the club had roughly the same amount of rd 1 picks as they will take in 2024, 2025 & 2026 combined. Only this time there are likely to be about 4 x top 5 picks rather than 2. And the club has gone from 1-3 f/t recruiting staff in that period to now 6-8, or whatever AFL standard is.

So in summary the club will have the opportunity to produce as many good & great players as the 8 years listed above, but in just 3 drafts. These players are likely be be supplemented by more players produced from low value picks than during the above period. And if Richmond were to be hitting their straps around 2029-30 it is likely that a good number of players will be in that team who were already on the list in 2023, say Balta, Gibcus, Ross, M Rioli, Mansell, Brown, Campbell & likely 2-3 others from a group of about 10 who look some chance.

They key thing won't necssarily be how many of these new draftees make it. Exactly how good they are will be if anything more important. Which I am sure the club has learned from previous & is why they have recruited slightly riskier unproven types with strong potential upside, rather than the bankable consistent types who might run out of ideas in big finals.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Never mind them even being all wrong.

Even if they only turn into role players it still won’t be enough to propel the tigers anywhere.

They need 3-4 players to turn into A graders to be looking to get anywhere.

This is roughly right, but it isn't 3-4 x A graders from the 2024 draft haul, it is more like 5-6 A Graders from:

• the pre-existing list,(par 1-2) +
• this 2024 draft haul,(par 2) +
• the next 2 drafts(par 1-2) +
• any free agent acquisitions over the next 4-5 years(par 1)

All things being equal, par should be the necessary 5-6 A Graders from those sources - & it is a lot easier to get their primes lined up doing it this way.

 

[bungalow_bill]

The system won yet again.

The best kid in the draft cost 3 picks in the 40s.

 

[Chief]

And we're back.

 

[Freomaniac]

Getting them all wrong would be a disaster of epic proportions. You had about 3 drafts worth of good picks and getting those good picks cost you almost all your good players that are worth anything, so getting them all wrong would guarantee a North-like extended stay at the bottom of the ladder.

true But Ross Lyon has more youth to work with at the saints next season

 

[craffles]

There was some pretty decent moves by Blair Hartley & the recruiting team in constructing the draft hand, it didn't just magically materialise.

Obviously having picks 1(Lalor), 28(Sims) were just the result of dumb luck with injury to get those good picks.

- Pick 23 Harry Armstrong came about because Hartley had the foresight to slide picks back last year & pick up points for this draft with this exact scenario in mind.

- Picks 7(Smillie) 12(Hotton) 14(Faull) 21(Trainor) came about because the list management team let valuable players Rioli, Bolton, Baker know if they wished to depart to certain clubs with suitable trade capital then Richmond was open to it. There are a lot of moving parts in all of that & it would be very easy to make a total mess of it.

- Pick 27, which when added to f2 was traded for Roos f1(likely top 5 pick) was also extracted for Rioli in a deal that saw more carefully accumulated late picks go to the Suns. So you could fairly say Rioli(who will be 28 early season 2025, & is not a marquee player, along with very late junk picks has netted Richmond around 1.6 x top 7 picks with no salary relief. That is a fantastic effort by any list manager to produce that outcome.

- The trade with north could easily have cost more if Hartley had blinked at an earlier point. So that was a very good piece of negotiation.

- topped off with the worthless f4 traded to Suns to get 58 & acquire Alger. This looked a pretty sharp piece of business, that probably owed to some goodwill Hartley had built up with the Suns over time, & good persistence to stay focussed right to the end. Some list managers we have seen would have been off gloating to the media long before this.

There was a hell of a lot to synchronise to get all those deals to line up for Richmond like that, & it required having the foresight & humility to trade out established players, and goodwill with other list managers & the traded players to meet with co-operation. Hartley is an excellent list manager. Our supporters are absolutely rapt with his work, not just in this instance. Also the players recruited seem to have met with universal approval, and given the shocking illness & death of the Head of Recruiting Chris Toce in recent months it seems to have been a job really well done.

I am with you about flippant use of superlatives like "genius" but he is a top class list manager, Richmond are very lucky to have him.

Your list has been absolutely smashed because none of your decent players want to play for the club and you’ve been forced to gamble on kids.

North desperately wanted a KPP and will finish higher than bottom four next year so wanted to cash in and get a year into a player and you got lucky with right place, right time not Hartley “not blinking”.

Fixed it for you. Richmond made the best of a shit situation but the lengths you’ve gone to a spin a positive and intentional narrative are outrageous.

 

[sabso]

Not an expert on anyone’s list but imo Carlton should be happy with effectively a pick 1 after making finals. A poster said the blues have drafted 4 brownlow medalists on paper - of course playing for Carlton gives a player a distinct advantage in that regard.

 

[tropicaltiger]

Forever to be known as Laura Clown.

LauraR & AndrewD remind me of Cybil and Basil Fawlty.

 

[Aristotle Pickett the3rd]

To me the clear winners were Richmond and Port Adelaide.
The clear losers Geelong , Essendon, Carlton and Collingwood.

 

[sleep]

Winners - Cats - Xavier "Iva" Ivisic is the steal of the draft

Losers - Tugs - Another rebuild botched... They drafted 6 Tamblings.
- Hawforn

 

[STPer18]

Why? If we get them all wrong what's the worst that can happen? We'll just get another crack at the elite end of the draft.

No pissfarting around in the middle of the ladder.

You generally only get one crack at the elite end of the draft every 12 months. Everything of value was sold for this draft, unless you've got another Bolton/Rioli/Baker trio hidden away. Thanks to North it'll be a couple of cracks next year but then you're on the drip feed system. The success or failure of the 2024 draft will be the backbone of Richmond's rebuild, that's why I said they need to be the winners more than anyone else.