List Mgmt. Drafting SA kids as a priority.

[Donkey Magoo]

Was going to start a new thread to post the following below but just realised Scorpus had already done something similar HERE.

So, just bumping and tacking on what I was going to post here .....

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Ok, seeing that the idea of only picking SA born/bred draftees at AFL drafts (in order to remove the go-home factor of our in-demand talented players originating from Vic/WA) has cropped again, let's try to imagine what our list would be like today if we had done so over past seasons.

For this exercise, let's look back as far as the 2005 draft as that is the draft in which the earliest non-SA players drafted by AFC and still on the current (2017) AFC list - namely Richie Douglas.

Based on the Sliding Doors analysis below, our list would be different from the current one as follows:

Taylor Walker
Eddie Betts
Sam Jacobs
Rhys Stanley -----> Rory Sloane
Jimmy Toumpas -----> Brad Crouch
Sean Lemmens -----> Matt Crouch]
Cory Gregson -----> Mitch McGovern
Sam Durdin -----> Jake Lever
Christian Howard -----> Daniel Talia
Mitch Clisby -----> Kyle Hartigan
Luke Reynolds -----> Charlie Cameron
Sam Colquhoun -----> Rory Atkins
Levi Greenwood -----> Andy Otten
Lindsay Thomas -----> David Mackay
Cleve Hughes -----> Richard Douglas
Rory Laird
Brodie Smith
Riley Knight
Josh Jenkins
Scott Thompson
Ryan Burton -----> Tom Doedee
Will Hayward -----> Jordan Gallucci
Brad Ebert -----> Wayne Milera
Luke Davis -----> Myles Poholke
Brad Ebert -----> Troy Menzel
Zachary Bates -----> Jake Kelly
noone -----> Hugh Greenwood
noone -----> Alex Keath
Harrison Wigg
Paul Seedsman
Luke Brown
Curtly Hampton
Kyle Cheney
Tom Lynch
Cam Ellis-Yolmen
Willie Rioli -----> Elliot Himmelberg
Sam Draper -----> Matthew Signorello
noone -----> Dean Gore
Josh Glenn -----> Harry Dear
Ben Jarman -----> Ben Davis
Tom Read -----> Reilly O'Brien
Jono Beech
Luke Surman -----> Paul Hunter

We may also have on our list:

Matthew Westhoff
Matthew Broadbent

So looks like CURRENT ACTUAL LIST >>>>>>>>>> ALT DRAFT SA-ONLY LIST

On the other hand, a draft SA-only policy would probably lead us to having very low digit draft picks.

Spoiler: Sliding Doors analysis (long!)

View attachment 389127

At the risk of becoming complete asses, let's make the following assumptions:

[a1] AFC's drafters have same views of player talent as other club's drafters (hence supports assumption [a2]).

[a2] At each AFC pick that was a non-SA player in reality, swap with the next SA player picked by another club at a later pick.
- The non-SA player that AFC picked in reality could well have been be picked by that other club (or another).

[a3] Club draft positions are pretty much as they have been - but let's allow AFC some leeway to be a bit lower in some cases.
- If our SA-only list doesn't seem as strong as thay have actually been, could argure that we would have finished lower over the past seasons.

[a4] Port does not have a draft-SA only policy

[a5] AFC trading in non-SA players is ok.
- Since a player willing to come to Adelaide is ok in our eyes.


So the draft/PSD/rookie changes could have been as follows. (Ignoring rookie promotions, retirements, delistings, or the player types drafted)

2005
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DRAFTED: D.Pfeifer, Cleve Hughes, B.Vince, A.Obst; [PSD]: J.Porplyzia; [R]: B.Sugars, T.Redden, S.Elliott
INSTEAD OF: R.Douglas, A.Bonaddio
MOST SIGNIFICANT: Cleve Hughes <--> R.Douglas

2006
---
DRAFTED: J.Sellar, Chris Schmidt, L.Thomas, N.Gill, B.Campbell; [R]: A.McIntyre, J.Turner, R.Archard, G.Gallman
INSTEAD OF: K.Tippett, D.Mackay
MOST SIGNIFICANT: Chris Schmidt <--> K.Tippett, Lindsay Thomas <--> D.Mackay

2007
---
DRAFTED: B.Ebert, L.Greenwood, M.Westhoff, T.McNamara, T.Walker (nominally SA); [PSD]: S.Welsh; [R]: J.Moss, J.Petrenko
INSTEAD OF: P.Dangerfield, A.Otten, J.Jacky, M.Cook, T.Armstrong; [R]: Ed Curnow, R.Willits, B.Martin
MOST SIGNIFICANT: Patrick Dangerfield <--> Brad Ebert, Levi Greenwood <--> Andy Otten, Matthew Westhoff <--> Jarrhan Jacky, Tom McNamara <--> Myke Cook, ??? <--> Tony Armstrong, Ryan Willits <--> Ed Curnow
TRADED IN: B.Moran, B.Symes

2008
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DRAFTED: P.Davis, M.Broadbent, R.Stanley, R.O'Keeffe, P.Cahill; [R]: A.Varcoe, B.Donnelly (Ireland)
INSTEAD OF: S.McKernan, R.Sloane, T.Lee, W.Young, R.Henderson
MOST SIGNIFICANT: Matthew Broadbent <--> Shaun McKernan, Rhys Stanley <--> Rory Sloane, Rhys O'Keeffe <--> Tom Lee, Paul Cahill <--> Will Young, Adam Varcoe <--> Ricky Henderson
TRADED IN:

2009
---
DRAFTED: C.Howard, J.Bollenhagen, B.Sumner, J.Craig
INSTEAD OF: D.Talia, J.Gunston, S.Shaw; [R]: Luke Thompson, P.Contin, M.Wright, M.Jaensch
MOST SIGNIFICANT: Christian Howard <--> Daniel Talia, Justin Bollenhagen <--> Jack Gunston, Byron Sumner <--> Sam Shaw, Pat Contin <--> Luke Thompson
TRADED IN:

2010
---
DRAFTED: B.Smith, L.Davis; [R]: T.Milera, J.von Bertouch, L.Roach, I.Callinan, S.Martyn
INSTEAD OF: J.Lyons
MOST SIGNIFICANT: Luke Davis <--> Jarryd Lyons
TRADED IN: R.Tambling, S.Jacobs

2011
---
DRAFTED: L.Brown & J.Toumpas (mini-draft), A.Forster, N.Joyce, C.Ellis-Yolmen; [R]: R.Laird, C.Shenton, T.McIntyre
INSTEAD OF: B.Crouch (mini-draft & AFC 2011 pick 10), S.Kerridge; [R]: D.Orval
MOST SIGNIFICANT: Jimmy Toumpas <--> Brad Crouch, Alex Forster <--> Sam Kerridge, Cameron Shenton <--> Dylan Orval
TRADED IN: Tom Lynch (for I.Maric), J.Jenkins (assume we did this trade somehow)
NOTES:
- A messy year to figure out
- would have been unable to trade Jack Gunston for picks 24,46,64 (pick 24 was on-traded for GC's picks 27, 31 and 68)
- AFC retain picks 53, 71
- also unable to trade in L.Johnston (with T.Armstrong)
- AFC probably retains pick 35
- assume AFC somehow picks A.Forster instead of S.Kerridge and somehow ends up with picks 46, 64 (actual, and so no Mitch Grigg drafted)

2012
---
- the Tippet years!
DRAFTED: K.Brand, S.Colquhoun; [R]: M.Clisby, J.Osborn, T.Klaosen
INSTEAD OF: S.Siggins, R.Atkins; [R]: Kyle Hartigan
MOST SIGNIFICANT: Kaiden Brand <--> Sam Siggins, Sam Colquhoun <--> Rory Atkins, Mitch Clisby <--> Kyle Hartigan
TRADED IN:

2013
---
- the Tippet years!
DRAFTED: S.Lemmens, R.Knight; [R]: Luke Reynolds, J.Battersby, Z.Bates, A.Spina
INSTEAD OF: M.Crouch; [R]: C.Cameron, Jake Kelly
MOST SIGNIFICANT: Sean Lemmens <--> Matt Crouch, Luke Reynolds <--> Charlie Cameron, Zachary Bates <--> Jake Kelly
TRADED IN: J.Podsiadly

2014
---
DRAFTED: S.Durdin, H.Wigg, C.Gregson (doubt AFC would have picked C.Daniel), Josh Glenn; [R]: T.Read, K.Ramsey, A.Wilson
INSTEAD OF: J.Lever, M.McGovern, H.Dear, R.O'Brien
MOST SIGNIFICANT: Sam Durdin <--> Jake Lever, Cory Gregson <--> Mitch McGovern, Josh Glenn <--> Harry Dear, Tom Read <--> Reilly O'Brien
TRADED IN: K.Cheney, L.Lowden

2015
---
DRAFTED: R.Burton, Jordan Dawson; [R]: L.Surman, J.Beech,
INSTEAD OF: T.Doedee; [R]: P.Hunter, H.Greenwood, A.Keath
MOST SIGNIFICANT: Ryan Burton <--> Tom Doedee, Luke Surman <--> Paul Hunter, noone <--> Hugh Greenwood, noone <--> Alex Keath
TRADED IN: C.Hampton, P.Seedsman
NOTES:
- could not have traded out P.Dangerfield for pick 9 & 28 (-->W.Milera, T.Menzel) so Brad Ebert <--> Wayne Milera & Troy Menzel
- AFC would have retained pick 51

2016
---
DRAFTED: W.Hayward, W.Rioli; [R]: S.Draper ???, B.Jarman
INSTEAD OF: J.Gallucci, E.Himmelberg, M.Signorello, Ben Davis
MOST SIGNIFICANT: Will Hayward <--> Jordan Gallucci, Willie Rioli <--> Elliot Himmelberg, Sam Draper <--> Matthew Signorello, Ben Jarman <--> Ben Davis
TRADED IN:
NOTES:
- would not have pick 43 (GC trade for J.Lyons) so Luke Davis <--> Myles Poholke
- not sure if AFC should have pick 62 (M.Signorello)

Ripping post mate well done.

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

I don't think anyone thinks only trade in South Aussies.

It's not an exact science anyway. It's not like there's some hard evidence that proves that Lever would have been a better pick than Durdin. It's all opinion, weighted by various factors.

All I'd be asking is that we put a bit more weight behind South Aussie kids and the go home factor.

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

Dangerfield for examples. Alarm bells were blazing in hindsight. Never should have picked him. Didn't want to leave Geelong and had huge family ties to the town and community.

Was a Monty for wanting to go home.

 

[Shaz2012]

Dangerfield for examples. Alarm bells were blazing in hindsight. Never should have picked him. Didn't want to leave Geelong and had huge family ties to the town and community.

Was a Monty for wanting to go home.

Are you serious?

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

Are you serious?

Of course.

 

[Shaz2012]

Of course.

Danger was a massive recruiting success story. The failure was in our ability to trade for him when he left. He is a brownlow medalist and arguably the best player in the league at the moment. If we didn't take him it would have been a massive failure.

 

[ams4crows]

In recent years SA hasn't really produced any elite talent and the ones that went high have been 1st round Duds, Toumpas, Aish, Scharenberg (though not his fault injuries just been bad) Mayes, B.Kennedy

There's been No Danger, Pendulbury Martin, Fyfe, Franklin type players coming out of SA for a decade!

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

Danger was a massive recruiting success story. The failure was in our ability to trade for him when he left. He is a brownlow medalist and arguably the best player in the league at the moment. If we didn't take him it would have been a massive failure.

Brownlow medalist for another team. Will probably win a premiership for that team. Meanwhile, yes, we ****ed up the trade but he left us in that position.

He was a failure. Would rather have had Ebert with us from day 1 to the end of hi career.

Not as good a player, but at least wouldn't have wasted our time developing a premium player for another teams benefit.

 

[marty36]

In recent years SA hasn't really produced any elite talent and the ones that went high have been 1st round Duds, Toumpas, Aish, Scharenberg (though not his fault injuries just been bad) Mayes, B.Kennedy

There's been No Danger, Pendulbury Martin, Fyfe, Franklin type players coming out of SA for a decade!

Burton might be, showing all the signs


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

In recent years SA hasn't really produced any elite talent and the ones that went high have been 1st round Duds, Toumpas, Aish, Scharenberg (though not his fault injuries just been bad) Mayes, B.Kennedy

There's been No Danger, Pendulbury Martin, Fyfe, Franklin type players coming out of SA for a decade!

Add Milera to that list.

 

[ams4crows]

Add Milera to that list.

1st round duds?

 

[GrommoT]

Brownlow medalist for another team. Will probably win a premiership for that team. Meanwhile, yes, we ****** up the trade but he left us in that position.
He was a failure. Would rather have had Ebert with us from day 1 to the end of hi career.
Not as good a player, but at least wouldn't have wasted our time developing a premium player for another teams benefit.

Understand (and sympathise with) your sentiments but we were unlucky with the timing of the Tiprat sanctions. Had we had another 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders over the past 5 years, we could have been like we currently are but also with a Dusty Martin (PD) in our team and challenging.

 

[John Who]

I can understand where the OP is coming from. In today's age and the era of free agency, the top talents have more power in picking and choosing whether to stay, go home, or go somewhere with the biggest money.
In the end, SA teams are at a disadvantage as the go home factor is 2/18 for SA kids, versus if someone was from Victoria, then the go home factor would be 9/18 for Vic kids. Factoring also the salary capping, and SA/WA/NSW/Queensland teams have it much tougher than the Victorian teams.
Basically as the rules currently stand:
- we are much more likely to lose a Vic player as a homesickness factor
- we are likely to pay more to retain a Vic player, after several years of experience and establishing themselves within the team.

So as the point of the OP, we certainly have to pick other avenues in order to remain competitive, and I see focusing more on SA players is one viable option and arguably necessary in the modern era. Note this is not to say we only focus on just picking only SA kids. But more the equation shifting from picking best talent anywhere, to picking best talent but more emphasis on local SA kids.

 

[earlsta]

In recent years SA hasn't really produced any elite talent and the ones that went high have been 1st round Duds, Toumpas, Aish, Scharenberg (though not his fault injuries just been bad) Mayes, B.Kennedy

There's been No Danger, Pendulbury Martin, Fyfe, Franklin type players coming out of SA for a decade!

Izak rankine 2018 afl draft

 

[Rotayjay]

I can understand where the OP is coming from. In today's age and the era of free agency, the top talents have more power in picking and choosing whether to stay, go home, or go somewhere with the biggest money.
In the end, SA teams are at a disadvantage as the go home factor is 2/18 for SA kids, versus if someone was from Victoria, then the go home factor would be 9/18 for Vic kids. Factoring also the salary capping, and SA/WA/NSW/Queensland teams have it much tougher than the Victorian teams.

The NSW and Qld clubs get academies. The SA and WA clubs don't. And therein lies another deck of the shit sandwich we get in this oh-so-free player movement prima donna era.

 

[GrommoT]

So we could of had Cory Gregson and Cleve Hughes! My god what have we done!

Could have given Mods a run for his money.....

​

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

I don't think anyone thinks only trade in South Aussies.

It's not an exact science anyway. It's not like there's some hard evidence that proves that Lever would have been a better pick than Durdin. It's all opinion, weighted by various factors.

All I'd be asking is that we put a bit more weight behind South Aussie kids and the go home factor.

so you would be happy for us to draft Durdin instead of Lever?

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Could have given Mods a run for his money.....

View attachment 389198​

He's so dreamy.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

In addition to this, I think that we should only draft players from the more affluent SA districts, we don't want people with bad backgrounds and as such not of good character playing for our side. It would be enough to make me choke on my Apricot slice.

 

[LC40]

Izak rankine 2018 afl draft

Such a smart balanced footballer.

 

[Sanders]

Dangerfield for examples. Alarm bells were blazing in hindsight. Never should have picked him. Didn't want to leave Geelong and had huge family ties to the town and community.

Was a Monty for wanting to go home.

He gave us many great years service, we would pick him again everyday in hindsight

 

[mattymac]

Would not work as a blanket policy.

But we have to be awake to opportunities like Burton.

Especially considering that was our second first rounder in the draft and we clearly treated it as a speculative pick by picking Doedee, its hard to fathom how we ignored the local option.

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

so you would be happy for us to draft Durdin instead of Lever?

too early to tell. If Durdin doesn't make it, then taking Lever was a good choice.

If Durdin become a solid 150 game player then we should have taken him.

If what we get in return for Lever turns out to be value, that helps.