DT 2011 Forwards Thread

[Wheedus]

hasnt been much talk about buddy

how will he go this seeing hawthorn are very likely to be near the top?

could he like didak be a good upgrade target???

He's a lock for me

 

[Vecto]

So ive got a pick a bit from left field. Levi Greenwood.

Third year player, who is easily in north best team. Averaged 50 in his first year, 71 in the second.

thoughts?

 

[chadleverington]

Great thing for Greenwood is the dual position def/mid. priced at 290kish is a bit of a stick price range. What are you expecting he will average?

 

[borrat]

will o'keefe be as good as this year as he was last year or will he start to decline?

 

[Artax]

ROK was ordinary last year but now he's injury free he's a lock for me.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

ROK was ordinary last year but now he's injury free he's a lock for me.

I wouldnt say ordinary

He was awesome at the start and fell away mainly due to attention and less time in the midfield when Hanneberry, Jack and JPK lifted.

Unsure if he has ever made AA. but he certainly deserves goes down as one of true HFF specialist of the highest order. Unfortunatly Chapman, SJ, Didak have always seemed to be just ahead at the same time.

 

[Artax]

Ordinary by his normal standards, he was a jet the year before & I think he'll be a little undervalued this year.

Yeah he made AA in 06.

 

[Pumbi]

I wouldnt say ordinary

He was awesome at the start and fell away mainly due to attention and less time in the midfield when Hanneberry, Jack and JPK lifted.

Coincided with his almost chronic groin injury.

Another year older, and another year where the Swan's will develop their young brigade of midfielders.

Personally, O'Keefe is third in the pecking order for me in terms of Sydney forwards, therefore meaning there is no chance that I will select him.

I can't see how you could mount a realistic case for him to improve his average.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Coincided with his almost chronic groin injury.

Another year older, and another year where the Swan's will develop their young brigade of midfielders.

Personally, O'Keefe is third in the pecking order for me in terms of Sydney forwards, therefore meaning there is no chance that I will select him.

I can't see how you could mount a realistic case for him to improve his average.

I guess FFC are liking Goodes and Mcglynn.

Well i think you mounted a case yourself, the groin injury that you mentioned coincided with his decline in scoring. Still very durable and a possible 12-14 point value looking at the year before. Swans should continue to improve and attention now moves to Hanneberry and Jack on a more regular basis.

Theres my case.

 

[54Dogs]

What are people's thoughts on Chris Knights? He is relatively cheap and has a fairly big upside considering he has averaged as high as 87.8 (2007) and averaged 83.1 and 84.7 in 2008 and 2009. Do any crows supporters know how he is going in his preseason?

Knights has a quad niggle ATM which is not unusual

 

[Artax]

I'm with you DWD. Will get less attention, play forward and midfield. Marks well, kicks goals, no groin complaints and will be cheaper than he should be. No brainer if you ask me.

 

[Pumbi]

I guess FFC are liking Goodes and Mcglynn.

Well i think you mounted a case yourself, the groin injury that you mentioned coincided with his decline in scoring. Still very durable and a possible 12-14 point value looking at the year before. Swans should continue to improve and attention now moves to Hanneberry and Jack on a more regular basis.

Theres my case.

I am in charge of my team.

Durability can be a double edged sword in some cases, case in point O'Keefe last year. He was deemed fit enough to play each week (I assume through a combination of Sydney's finals ambitions, his pain threshold and importance to side amongst other things) so you really had no choice to persist with him. Why trade out a premium who is playing, right? Blasphemy.

So, you're left with a supposed 90+ player dishing up 60s, with the odd 100 and even a 23 in there. By the time you realise the kid is struggling with injury and the situation isn't going to get any better while he is playing, hes dropped 100k.

In 2009, O'Keefe played the first third of the season in the forward line. He doesn't score at the same premium level when he plays solely forward (90.6 in 2006 was very good at the time). It was a push into a full-time midfield role that caused Ryan to have a mini 'break out'. He escaped opposition attention for the most part probably because he was such an unknown factor as a midfielder.

Come to 2010, O'Keefe continued his role as a permanent midfielder. He began to cop the number 1 tag, which was his first problem. His second? Groins. A bitch of an injury witch can flare up at any stage. You lose your pace, your explosiveness, your ability to run the lines, to break a tackle. His scoring plummeted as Roos began to eased O'Keefe through the last part of the season.

Whats going to change in 2011? For mine, he only becomes viable if he plays full time midfield.

Here is a list of factors I don't like.

1. Historically, his body can't seem to handle a full year in the guts.
2. He is now 31. His body is getting old and its harder to fully shake injuries.
3. Is not even in full training yet.
4. O'Keefe is now consistently a target from the opposition, whether that be a tag or a defender.
5. O'Keefe played as a tagging half-forward for a few games last year. No good for his scoring capabilities.
6. He won't compete with selections around his price if he plays the large majority of the game in the forward line.
7. Jack, Kennedy, Hannebery, McVeigh, Jetta, Goodes, Malceski, McGlynn are all likely to get time in the midfield this year. How much will O'Keefe get even if he is fit?
8. Sydney will make finals in 2011. O'Keefe and Sydney will learn from 2010 that they need to manage him so that he is performing at his optimum come Finals time.
9. Its not advised that you have two players from the same team in the same position, and I prefer Goodes.

 

[54Dogs]

Come to 2010, O'Keefe continued his role as a permanent midfielder. He began to cop the number 1 tag

Agree with most of your post however McVeigh always gets the number one tag at Sydney

 

[Lakey91]

Wouldn't touch ROK with his groin issues and poor (restricted) PS thus far. Perfect upgrade target IMO - should see him start across the HF line early and then drift into the middle as he gets fitter and fitter. In regars to tags, he is strong bodied and has elite endurance so I dont think tags have ever really been that much of an issue for him. As 54dogs said, McVeigh has always been right up there in tagging due to his great disposal (when he gets time and space). 2010 may see Jack and Hanneberry getting more attention, but I think these are more likely to come from secondary tags or just specific matchups than the clint jones type taggers.

 

[Steel Eagles]

I am in charge of my team.

Durability can be a double edged sword in some cases, case in point O'Keefe last year. He was deemed fit enough to play each week (I assume through a combination of Sydney's finals ambitions, his pain threshold and importance to side amongst other things) so you really had no choice to persist with him. Why trade out a premium who is playing, right? Blasphemy.

So, you're left with a supposed 90+ player dishing up 60s, with the odd 100 and even a 23 in there. By the time you realise the kid is struggling with injury and the situation isn't going to get any better while he is playing, hes dropped 100k.

In 2009, O'Keefe played the first third of the season in the forward line. He doesn't score at the same premium level when he plays solely forward (90.6 in 2006 was very good at the time). It was a push into a full-time midfield role that caused Ryan to have a mini 'break out'. He escaped opposition attention for the most part probably because he was such an unknown factor as a midfielder.

Come to 2010, O'Keefe continued his role as a permanent midfielder. He began to cop the number 1 tag, which was his first problem. His second? Groins. A bitch of an injury witch can flare up at any stage. You lose your pace, your explosiveness, your ability to run the lines, to break a tackle. His scoring plummeted as Roos began to eased O'Keefe through the last part of the season.

Whats going to change in 2011? For mine, he only becomes viable if he plays full time midfield.

Here is a list of factors I don't like.

1. Historically, his body can't seem to handle a full year in the guts.
2. He is now 31. His body is getting old and its harder to fully shake injuries.
3. Is not even in full training yet.
4. O'Keefe is now consistently a target from the opposition, whether that be a tag or a defender.
5. O'Keefe played as a tagging half-forward for a few games last year. No good for his scoring capabilities.
6. He won't compete with selections around his price if he plays the large majority of the game in the forward line.
7. Jack, Kennedy, Hannebery, McVeigh, Jetta, Goodes, Malceski, McGlynn are all likely to get time in the midfield this year. How much will O'Keefe get even if he is fit?
8. Sydney will make finals in 2011. O'Keefe and Sydney will learn from 2010 that they need to manage him so that he is performing at his optimum come Finals time.
9. Its not advised that you have two players from the same team in the same position, and I prefer Goodes.

Great post

 

[Hodges]

All class Pumbi.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Sorry Pumbi didnt know you were in charge of your own team, most teams seem to be the same.

But you make some great points, didnt realise he was so old and with him yet to start pre season that isnt a greta sign for an old guy like him. Still will be kept in my mind but youve probably swayed my selection a little.

But i still think he has the ability to score very well from HFF, remember thats pretty much midfield these days, certainly would be if he was playing for collingwood and with the game tending that way.

Great post and swayed my mind

 

[Artax]

Yeah very good post. While I still think he'll have a great year & with Goodes locked in I might go TDL. ROKS dp is still a bonus though

 

[favourites]

Spot on Pumbi and Lakey. If a guy hasn't joined the group by January history suggests he won't return to his best form until late in the season if at all.

DWD no much talk of either of those two on FFC.

One person I'd like to discuss is Jack Riewoldt.

I reckon he has the makings of a player who can reach premium forward status. There has been talk over the preseason that he may move up the group a little more. Surely as guys get a little bigger at Richmond (Griffiths, Vickery ect) they will begin to take some of the pressure of Jack.

I guess the query will always be can he have an equally exceptional season two years running. We saw Franklin struggle to overcome the hype after his 100 goal season, will last year Coleman medalist go the same way.

His numbers produce a pretty high S.D. which points to him being priced at a cheaper price throughout the season, I just hope he doesn't start with a bang and I miss the boat.

At this point in time I've only really locked in N.Riewoldt and Chappy.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Spot on Pumbi and Lakey. If a guy hasn't joined the group by January history suggests he won't return to his best form until late in the season if at all.

DWD no much talk of either of those two on FFC.

One person I'd like to discuss is Jack Riewoldt.

I reckon he has the makings of a player who can reach premium forward status. There has been talk over the preseason that he may move up the group a little more. Surely as guys get a little bigger at Richmond (Griffiths, Vickery ect) they will begin to take some of the pressure of Jack.

I guess the query will always be can he have an equally exceptional season two years running. We saw Franklin struggle to overcome the hype after his 100 goal season, will last year Coleman medalist go the same way.

His numbers produce a pretty high S.D. which points to him being priced at a cheaper price throughout the season, I just hope he doesn't start with a bang and I miss the boat.

At this point in time I've only really locked in N.Riewoldt and Chappy.

ROK could actually start slow and become a good upgrade option looking at his preseason.

As for JOLDT im not a fan at all. He scares me because he kicked so many goals, it would have to be looked at to see if he scored well when he didnt kick goals. I cant see him having a role further up the ground, unsure really what this means, but im taking it as if people think he will play similar to Buddy. He wont but if he plays more similar to Voldt of J.Brown than i guess he could improve with more marks. I still think the tigers will find they need him closer to goal. Griffiths and Vickery last year looked well away from being able to hold down the only deep forward position, they still need a few more years.

Certainly ill be looking at his career and comparing it to the Buddy 100 goal year and B.Hall 09 career and see if his scores coincide with goals.

Yeah really no players are locked away just yet, im going in with a massive open mind.

 

[Cold Hard Cash]

Good post Pumbi and excellent points made on o'keefe. i guess the only other thing to add is this year he is under a new coach.

 

[RustNeverSleeps]

ROK is actually 29 yrs old (30 soon) and according to his tweets is about to commence full training.

He's been incredibly durable over the years and I'm not sure if he is cooked just quite yet.

If he resumes a midfield role then he could be good for a 10+ ppg increase.

I actually don't see much difference between ROK, Goodes (31 yrs old) and Pavlich (29 yrs old) in terms of risk profile and scoring ability. ROK perhaps has a bit more upside this year.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

ROK is actually 29 yrs old (30 soon) and according to his tweets is about to commence full training.

He's been incredibly durabile over the years and I'm not sure if he is cooked just quite yet.

If he resumes a midfield role then he could be good for a 10+ ppg increase.

I actually don't see much difference between ROK, Goodes (31 yrs old) and Pavlich (29 yrs old) in terms of risk profile and scoring ability. ROK perhaps has a bit more upside this year.

Yeah that sounds more right, bloody pumbi giving incorrect facts or data.

I think he is a better pick than Goodes, i wont be touching Goodes this year and probably not Pav. Pav is still required in the midfield. Both are slowing down probably quicker than ROK IMO. ROK is on my shortlist, preseason will determine alot for him.

 

[Steel Eagles]

Yeah that sounds more right, bloody pumbi giving incorrect facts or data.

I think he is a better pick than Goodes, i wont be touching Goodes this year and probably not Pav. Pav is still required in the midfield. Both are slowing down probably quicker than ROK IMO. ROK is on my shortlist, preseason will determine alot for him.

I thought you had been swayed

Have a look at the scores Goodes put up from round 15 onwards last year & tell me if you still think he slowing down quicker than ROK. Agree on Pav

 

[favourites]

Surely goodes end of season form will ensure that he is persisted with in the midfield.

I cant imagine longie was asleep during the last 7 or so rounds. Goodes is the most durable fwd in the comp and if played in his correct position he is just as if not more underpriced than a Rok without a preseason.

Goodes averaged 109 over the last 8 weeks of 2010 And only 94 over the whole season. He has only missed 3 games over 10 seasons and with Sydney looking like being a top 8 side it's hard to see him not improving.