Preview Essendon vs Collingwood- ANZAC Day, MCG [IN: Crameri, Hardingham, Colyer | OUT: Hurley, Pears, Melk]

[eth-dog]

Observations

Essendon: Essendon dealt with the ASADA investigation mid-week again surrounding James Hird, but were very strong in a good performance against St. Kilda with a comfortable 37 point win, Hurley kicking 3 but also having an injury concern over his ankle, and key forward Scott Gumbleton kicking 4 goals for Essendon

Collingwood: Had a good win against Richmond where their gun forward continued his good form, but have an injury concern to Nathan Brown, who has done his groin (please confirm) but were clinical against an opponent who they should account for comfortably, celebrating Dane Swan's 200th game in style.

Previous encounters (past 5 games): Essendon 0-5 Collingwood

Past 4 matches (most recent onwards (cbf looking up Pies NAB Challenge game))

Essendon: W-W-W-W
Collingwood: W-L-W-W

sportsbet odds

Essendon: $2.20
Collingwood: $1.67

Possible sides

Essendon vs Collingwood

B: Toovey - Frost - Macaffer
F: Al Davey - Hille - Crameri
HB: Shaw - Reid - Russell
HF: Howlett - Gumbleton - Zaharakis
C: D Thomas - Swan - Sidebottom
C: Heppell - Watson - Stanton
HF: Elliot - Cloke - Dwyer
HB: Hibberd - Carlisle - Dempsey
F: Sinclair - Lynch - Goldsack
B: Baguley - Hooker - Pears
R: Hudson - Blair - Pendlebury
R: Bellchambers - Goddard - Hocking
I: O'Brien - Fasolo - M Clarke
I: Melksham - Winderlich - Myers
S: J Thomas
S: Colyer



Essendon forward line vs Collingwood defence

It looks to be a battle between two seriously depleted thirds of the ground for either side. Essendon will be missing Hurley and Ryder, their 2 starting key forwards for the first 3 games of the season, through injury and suspension respectively, and Collingwood will be missing captain Nick Maxwell, promising key defender Lachlan Keefe and possibly Nathan Brown through injury. Reid vs Gumbleton looms as an important match-up, as does Toovey vs Crameri, with Crameri having previously done jobs on Harry O'Brien. How Jack Frost stands up against the resting ruckman in Hille or Bellchambers will also be important, giving away significant height and weight to them. Jordan Russell should account for Alwyn Davey after his drop of form against the Saints.

midfield battle (rucks included)

This is the area Essendon should feel on top with the quality of Collingwood outs, and Essendon's relatively full strength group, with the exception of Paddy Ryder, but that's nothing in comparison to players like Jolly, Beams and Ball, and an underdone Dale Thomas. Hocking will probably go to Swan after last year Great Dane won the medal, and we'll also possibly see Heppell and Pendlebury go head-to-head so Heppell can learn literally learn what Essendon fans want him to turn out as. Watson will be a tough match-up for Buckley, with no real hard taggers in their side, except for Marty Clarke who's expected to go to Stanton again after seriously limiting him last game. BJ Goddard will be another tough match-up for the Collingwood coach, he's in good form and has presented problems for Collingwood in the past. The ruck battle clearly favours Essendon with Hille and Hudson around the same level as a ruckman, and Bellchambers being thrice the ruckman than Lynch is.

Collingwood forward line vs Essendon defence

This the gamebreaker in all likelihood. Travis Cloke is hot after kicking 7 against Richmond, and Jake Carlisle has done a number on 3 very good key forwards in T Walker, M Clark and M Pavlich as well as breaking even with St. Kilda champion N Riewoldt. The support battles may be a good spectacle but this battle might decide the game. Hooker should be able to cover for Lynch after a solid start to the season and Fletcher vs Goldsack looms as an important battle for both sides. Jaime Elliott looks like a tough challenge for Mark Baguley, who's confidence will be high after claiming the scalps of Graeme Johncock, Aaron Davey and Steven Milne.

X-Factor player

Essendon's X-Factor for this week is Jake Melksham. After 23 touches against St. Kilda and a solid start to the year, Melksham finally looks settled at AFL level. He's a smart runner, creates space and does a lot of unnoticed things by his critics, and he just keeps on taking things on board from the coach by the looks of it, with his workrate increasing as indicated his tackle count, possession count and just overall look of him

Ben Sinclair is Collingwood's X-Factor in this game. He's a smart footballer, knows where to run from what I've seen, and has been unselfish this year so far. His pressure inside Collingwood's forward 50 is as good as the likes of Walters for Freo, Bruest for Hawthorn and Garlett for Carlton yet never seems to bob up in these arguments.

Key stats for each side

Essendon:

• Skills. 69% DE against St. Kilda under very little pressure, will want to maintain that under high pressure of the biggest H&A game of the AFL
• Opponents rebound 50's. Essendon concede 40 rebound 50's per game. They need to keep it in the forward line
• Marks inside 50. With Lynch and Cloke being their opponents, Essendon need to maintain their good record in this area

Collingwood

• Contested possessions. Essendon are #1 in the AFL for CP differential, and Collingwood need to get on top in this area
• Clearances. Collingwood are bottom 3 in clearance differential in 2013, and that won't cut it against quality sides
• Hitouts. Essendon are 4th in hitout differential, Collingwood 2nd last. Could be a crucial battle for Collingwood

My tip

Massive game, Essendon have lost the last 7 matches against Collingwood and will be keen to break that hoodoo, so I'm going for Essendon by 6 points

 

[yaco55]

Need to contain Pendlebury or Swan. One always gets off the chain. I am not confident that our key forwards wills will leave a big impact. Will need our smalls and mids to kick goals. And lets hope that Cloke is a bit off his game.

 

[jesselift]

for once i'm actually feeling confident going against collingwood (assuming crameri and fletcher plays)

 

[Bombers36]

I hope Crameri or Hurley play but if the dont it opens the door up for Daniher - would be great to see him debut on Anzac day. Hird said there will probably only be a couple of changes so team could look something like;-

OUT: Hurley, Merrett
IN: Daniher, Fletch


Fletch Carlisle Hibberd
Pears Hooker Dempsey
Stanton Watson Heppell
Goddard Gumby Melksham
Zakka Daniher Davey

T.Bell Hocking Howlett

Bench from: Myers Baguley Hille Winderlich


Plenty of talent on our list when you look at whos NOT in that team, and any of these guys could come in and play a role so it makes the selectors job very difficult


Crameri Hurley Merrett
Kavanagh Colyer Hams
Kommer Jetta Ryder
Hardingham NLM Dell'Olio

 

[Halftimehero]

Hoping stew comes in for hurls, fletch in for Pears, and possibly one of kav or trav for merrett.

 

[Halftimehero]

I would be suprised if they debuted Joe on ANZAC day, tough ask for a kid getting thrust into that sort of game first up, Melbourne did it too watts on queens birthday match and look how that turned out. I think hes going to be a superstar but theres no rush and we are winning so let him find his feet for a few more games at VFL level and bring him in when the time is right, in saying that though if crameri isnt right for thursday there might be no other choice.

 

[Halftimehero]

I managed to get a seat for the big game on level 4, whats the deal with the standing bays behind the goals? would it be better to watch from there (if thats allowed) or sit up the top?

 

[Coldacre]

Gumbleton at full forward

 

[eth-dog]

I managed to get a seat for the big game on level 4, whats the deal with the standing bays behind the goals? would it be better to watch from there (if thats allowed) or sit up the top?

up top IMO

 

[DaSawx]

Out: Hurley, Pears, Merrett

In: Fletcher, Crameri, Kavanagh

We're due.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

I reckon Hurley will get up.

Outs: Gumbleton, Pears, Merret, Davey
Ins: Fletcher, Crameri, Jetta, Colyer/Kavanagh

 

[Tassieboy]

First Anzac Day Game. Looking forward to it.

 

[Coldacre]

I reckon Hurley will get up

eh? how's that possible?

 

[bomberswarm2]

eh? how's that possible?

Well some say its a rolled ankle, and he'll be fine. Don't think there's much chance. And the crutches were only so he didn't put any weight on his ankle to try and get him up for Thursday.

 

[simoro1]

eh? how's that possible?

Maybe Hird's playing mind games...

 

[bomberswarm2]

Out: Hurley, Merret
In: Fletcher, Crameri

Gumbleton FF

 

[Ambrosia]

Hurley is a huge out. He just makes our forward line function and would be a great option to switch onto Cloke if he get a hold of Carlisle.

 

[bomberswarm2]

Hurley is a huge out. He just makes our forward line function and would be a great option to switch onto Cloke if he get a hold of Carlisle.

Well actually the second he got injured we piled on the goals, and Gumbleton dominated.
And Fletcher will take Cloke if he gets out of hand.

 

[Old Campaigner]

I reckon if we can beat the pies we're a near certainty for a top 4 finish, if we can't get up we're probably going to have to join the fight for spots 5-8 which will probably only be decided by a game or two, maybe even down to percentage.

 

[George Washington]

Well actually the second he got injured we piled on the goals, and Gumbleton dominated.
And Fletcher will take Cloke if he gets out of hand.

yea nah and yea nah.

As soon as Hurley went off we were much, much worse.

 

[Kong]

yea nah and yea nah.

As soon as Hurley went off we were much, much worse.

Our forward structure went to s**t.

St Kilda literally had three guys on Gumbleton (what a guy) at stages, because all we were doing was kicking it long to him.

Luckily for us he decided to dominate in the air.

 

[pepsi]

Considering Hurley was one of the best 3 players on the ground when he went off, can't say that we were better after he went off.

Collingwood are very good this year (don't let the Hawks game sway your opinion of them) and Cloke is in super form. Is Carlisle the expected match-up for Cloke? That will be one of the most important matchups for the game if so. And with Lynch adding to their hf line and Elliott starting very well, we will have to limit their forward entries and give them little space through the midfield.

 

[monty1104]

Wouldn't mind seeing Daniher play TBH. I reckon if Sheeds was still the coach, Daniher would be a shoe in to make his debut. So far, 10 players have made their debut on ANZAC day. Of those, it's fair to say 4 have had a good career (Lucas, Soloman, T.Cloke and Wellingham) while the jury is still out on Macaffer. Not saying we can read anything into it, just a bit of trivia

Changes for me:
In: Daniher, Crameri, Jetta, Fletcher
Out: Hurley, Pears, Merrett, Hille.

I don't think Hille deserves to be dropped (nor does Merrett really, or Pears), but for team balance, I think it makes sense. Lynch is having to pinch hit in the ruck for now, so I think Gumby/Daniher can do the same and draw level with Lynch, or at least make a contest. We can really stretch them in our forward line this week with Maxwell and Keefe out, and Brown under an injury cloud. That leaves Frost and Reid as genuine talls, against Gumby, Daniher and Crameri. It could force O'Brien back, or Toovey may have to play on Crameri instead of a small.

Jetta's form has been too good to overlook from all reports. I'm sure there are underlying reasons that he hasn't been picked yet, but given the short turnaround, I think his inclusion is worthwhile. Pears is really unlucky to miss, but if Fletch is back, someone has to give way. There is no way it's Carlisle, and Hooker has runs on the board this season.

Hopefully Winderlich can play a full game this week, so I'd be starting Davey/Melksham as the sub.

 

[eth-dog]

Daniher won't play. Crameri for Hurley and Fletcher for Pears is enough IMO, maybe Colyer in as the sub. I like Merrett, but will the pressure be too high?

 

[Ambrosia]

Well actually the second he got injured we piled on the goals, and Gumbleton dominated.
And Fletcher will take Cloke if he gets out of hand.

Are you trying to argue that Hurley isn't a big out?