Opinion Evaluate the Next 6 Weeks

[Snuffaluphagus]

Biggest 6 weeks for this club for over 5 years.

Club has a chance to really prove they are going places, put in an admirable effort and fall just short, or fade into mediocrity and prove all the neighsayers right.

Every week is a big game and there is not an easy match to round out the season, so what's your measurements on success/pass/fail for the rest of the year

For mine
Success: Win 4 of 6 OR make finals. Going 4 of 6 with this run of games to be pretty happy even if some other teams in the running fluke it and win 5 (should be unlikely) and push us out of the 8

Pass: Win 3 of 6 and dont make finals, with one win being WC. Beating WC is not about the rivalry its about finally beating team that we havent beaten in years. it's about getting over a clear mental demon that needs to be exorcised.

Fail: Win 2 of 6. Close to full strength side, everything to play for, 4 home games. 2 or less wins would be pretty heartbreaking

 

[salim malik]

Win the six and get a home final.

 

[theGav56]

I agree with your numbers, but personally don't put more value on beating WC on the slide over Geelong in contention. In fact, I'd go the opposite.

 

[Outshined]

It's almost a strange feeling to still be in contention at this point of the season. Definitely nice having a bit of spark and positivity around the club leading into the final stretch.

Agree with your criteria Snuff. It would be good to put together a few great performances at home even if we ultimately ended up falling short, which is still highly likely given the inconsistencies that come with a young side nearing the end of the season and our track record under pressure. Richmond and West Coast are wounded but you'd bank on them responding at some point so those games are going to be massive. Hopefully the Saints have lost a bit of steam coming into the final round trying to drag themselves back into the 8, although in an ideal world we'd have a spot sewn up by then.

Really though, it's in our hands are we're absolutely good enough to make it if we're at our best. Hopefully we see a big uptick in crowd numbers to give the team a bit more of an edge for the home fixtures.

 

[Ranger245]

A bar graph showing the probabilities of winning exactly 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 games would have the highest bar on 2 wins (with 3 only a slightly lower bar). That of course doesn't mean the team is more likely than not to win 2 games. Just means exactly 2 wins is a higher probability than exactly any other number of wins. So for me 3 or more wins is above par.

 

[Wilksyy]

Success would be winning 3 of the next 6 for mine. Anything over that I will be over the moon.

 

[kingswood71]

Bugger it...win the next 6, pray a few sides lose a few games, grab 4th spot
Seriously though, 3+ is good. We can win all 6 though......
Its there for us. We can do this.
Belief is everything....And goal kicking.

 

[ubiquitous226]

I'd love to make the finals, I think it would be a massive boost for the club and the young guys.
I think it may be a bridge too far after losing to Carlton twice and not getting over the line against Essendon, but it's going to be the expectation next year so they better get used to the pressure.

What I'd most like to see is some progress against teams playing well, even if we don't quite pull off the win.
The Western Bulldogs game was actually quite promising outside of the injuries, even how we responded during the last quarter was a good sign.

Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney I lump together as very tough games, even though we beat Sydney (just) they look like they've recaptured their form.
Richmond and West Coast really depend on what team we're facing, but jeez do I want to beat the Eagles.
We also shouldn't discount the Saints, but we'd really want to be finishing on a positive note regardless of other results.

 

[wild side]

3 would be pass mark, 4 would be over achieving.
But we do play 4 of the last 6 at home, and we have only played 5 at home this year (not including toast's home Derby) after 17 rounds

 

[Sweetback]

We just need to stay injury free and kick straight and we’re right in it

 

[Unique Name]

I'm not convinced we've turned any corners. We've failed our two biggest moments this year (Derby and the last game against Carlton).

However, I love that the next 6 weeks really mean something for the team and I hope we can rise to the challenge. Fingers crossed.

 

[Deathly]

I'm still of the belief that we blew our chance last week. We needed to secure both Ws against Carlton and Hawthorn before this last patch against actual sides. We only win 2 more from here I think.

 

[Madas]

I agree with your numbers, but personally don't put more value on beating WC on the slide over Geelong in contention. In fact, I'd go the opposite.

Agree
But can’t help but think that the Derby win will be massive for their self esteem and supporters confidence.
Win the Derby and watch the members numbers grow at the next home game/s , pushing the players to play better .
Did you see the Eagles players trying to pump up the crowd last night ? They thrive on it , it provides their electricity.

 

[Alfonz]

Nothing would surprise me with Fremantle. Even zero wins is a distinct possibility.

Knowing us, we will win the next 4 and be proclaimed the form team of the competition, and then blow it all against WC and St Kilda and finish 9th.

 

[theGav56]

Agree
But can’t help but think that the Derby win will be massive for their self esteem and supporters confidence.
Win the Derby and watch the members numbers grow at the next home game/s , pushing the players to play better .
Did you see the Eagles players trying to pump up the crowd last night ? They thrive on it , it provides their electricity.

Winning derbies is critical for a serious premiership tilt, and is one of the things that has kept WC in the hunt. For a strong premiership campaign we need home finals. So I get how important they are, but right now it would be huge to take the Cats down.

 

[Fat Nyfe]

Success - Show that we've truly turned a corner. Excuses go out the window and we just start winning games, overcoming whatever injuries/umpiring or other random Dockery luck that hits us. We not only make the finals but take an elim final all the way or win through to the second week and beyond.

Pass - Show that we're capable of competing with the best sides and don't get blown out of the water. Maybe things don't go our way but we either make the finals, or take it down to the wire with a 4-2 or 3-3 finish. If we miss out having played good footy and beaten 2-3 top 8 teams there is enough to work with next year to call this one a pass.

Fail - We never really threaten from here on in, go 2-4 or something like that and play the same way we have in the past vs good teams, getting brushed aside or showing a gulf in class. Basically if anyone is on this board at the end of the year saying "10 wins this season, we've improved!" it's been a fail.

Disaster - Totally s**t the bed and fall apart, don't win a game, get a stack of injuries.

I reckon any of these is a possibility. Fingers crossed.

 

[Quazar]

we're ready

 

[Joose]

A win against Geelong will make up for the Carlton loss.
If we can win this week then we make the finals.
Dare to dream.

 

[Quazar]

Bugger it...win the next 6, pray a few sides lose a few games, grab 4th spot
Seriously though, 3+ is good. We can win all 6 though......
Its there for us. We can do this.
Belief is everything....And goal kicking.

I like the way you butter your crumpets

 

[thefreodockers]

Win the next 10 straight…

 

[Belnakor]

based on the current form there are only really two games where we will start favourites: vs WCE and vs Richmond. Both of those games are danger games. We will start outsiders against Saints, Swans. Probably even for Brisbane/Geelong.

People thinking we will win 4-5 games i think are being a bit unrealistic. Winning 3 would be an excellent result all things considered and if we can retain our percentage that will enable us to make the finals

 

[Mr Cheese]

Got a horrible feeling that we s**t the bed, but I think that's just par for the course following the Dockers:

Geelong - Doable at home with Cameron out, massive midfield battle, Darcy key. Bomb it long and we're screwed. 50/50
Sydney - Depends where we play. Will be a different side than when we last played them and they're in smoking form, however they do lose the clearance battle a lot, so Darcy and the boys should be able to launch us i50. Up to Lobb, Treacy and the smalls to capitalize and not allow them to run out of defense. Probable Loss
Richmond - Horribly out of form and playing at Optus. Should put them away, bad news if we can't. Win
Lions - Tough game, though Lions not in the best form and we're at OPTUS. Fancy us here with Moose back. Probable Win
Eagles - Form means nothing, they'll be up for this especially if it *s us for finals. Time to get the monkey off the back. We lose this, we're too mentally weak for finals. Win
Saints - Away at Marvel, hitting their straps but 5 weeks is an age in football. If we go at them hard I think we take them, but can't sit off them. Worried about our lack of pressure here. Probable Loss

I see 2 wins for sure, 4 I'd say is 50/50, 5-6 highly unlikely. If we're serious this year we have to make finals unless derailed by injury.

 

[PowerToThePurpl]

Gotta beat the best to be the best. The outcome as to whether we do or don't make finals this year will come down to purely whether we deserve it or not, outlined by the next 6 tough weeks.

Not sure if this is posted elsewhere, but I found this very surprising: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...7/news-story/cb57ab6cf3d59fbd5aad1e794724ee2b

Apparently we are currently ranked 5th (behind the top 4) on the premiership pillars ladder (clearances, post-clearance contest numbers, ball movement and defending the opposition’s ball movement) while West Coast are second to last.

I've got a lot of faith in this group and think the belief is growing within the playing group itself.
The consistent games to Pearce and Logue have been absolutely pivotal to the recent success and the young guys have been outstanding. With a near fully healthy list for the majority of a season we'd be snug in the 8 in my opinion.

 

[freo84]

We should just emulate what the good sides do with a bit of tinkering.

Mmm yes a little bit of tinkering will have us playing finals.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Gotta beat the best to be the best. The outcome as to whether we do or don't make finals this year will come down to purely whether we deserve it or not, outlined by the next 6 tough weeks.

Not sure if this is posted elsewhere, but I found this very surprising: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...7/news-story/cb57ab6cf3d59fbd5aad1e794724ee2b

Apparently we are currently ranked 5th (behind the top 4) on the premiership pillars ladder (clearances, post-clearance contest numbers, ball movement and defending the opposition’s ball movement) while West Coast are second to last.

I've got a lot of faith in this group and think the belief is growing within the playing group itself.
The consistent games to Pearce and Logue have been absolutely pivotal to the recent success and the young guys have been outstanding. With a near fully healthy list for the majority of a season we'd be snug in the 8 in my opinion.

I think this sums up perfectly why most are so optimistic on the whole 'feel of the thing'. We have been doing so much right all year and I'd argue there's only been two games we've been poor in playing to "our way' (as JL likes to put it), WC and Carlton. On top of those two games, there has been a quarter in almost every game where we have been average and its cost us all of our games against better teams.

Alternatively, WC have been saved by the most ridiculous forward 50 efficiency that was completely unsustainable as Monday showed.

The guys are close to putting it together, hopefully it happens the next 6 weeks