Rumour GFC 2021 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists... Part II

[Turbocat]

That footage is from a SANFL league prelim final where he was playing in a forward pocket. What don’t you like from that footage?

To be honest he reminds me a bit of GHS... He leans back on his kicks. Id not say he was elite kick as some other I have seen... like the Jr kid.

I think I'd prefer others with our first pick... but to be fair any of the kids from 15-40 will have something about them that needs to be polished.

 

[Turbocat]

Yep...and in the 12 years since that 4 year period...?

For posterity, these are our first round picks since 2009:

2010 - Pick 15 Smedts - Fail

2012 - Pick 16 Thurlow - Fail

2013 - Pick 16 Lang - Fail

2014 - Pick 10 Cockatoo - Fail

2018 - Pick 15 Clark - Pass (can play, just didn't get the best out of him)

2019 - Pick 16 Stephens - Remains to be seen, but has been perennially injured and things aren't looking good thus far

2019 - Pick 19 SDK - Remains to be seen, but things look good thus far and is developing well - will probably end up being a 'Pass'

2020 - Pick 20 Max Holmes - From what I've seen thus far, looks like a gun and will be a 'Pass'

Things seem to have gone better in the last 3-4 years, and that seems to be because we're taking best available rather than someone who we took on projection rather than ability. Thurlow looked very good before he broke his leg, but Smedts, Lang and Cockatoo were definitely fails.

Not to mention guys like Fogarty and Constable in 2017 who we took at 22 and 36, who we saw as 'sliders' and took them...now they're both off our list just 4 years later. As Turbocat mentioned, Taheny is another who falls into this category, but wasn't as painful as we traded up two late picks to get him. Still a bust though.

Not one single figure pick. At some stage ..we should have bitten the bullet and got into the draft earlier..

 

[Shadow89]

Smedts, Thurlow and Lang especially hurt since even on draft night it was clear there were much better options.

Same with Fog in 2017. Thank God TK ended up being so good, otherwise that one could have really hurt.

These are all the players that look like far better picks, that were after our TK pick and before our Constable pick -

Pick 25 Balta
Pick 26 L. Ryan
Pick 27 B. Daniels
Pick 28 S. Taylor
Pick 29 Spargo
Pick 30 T. De Koning
Pick 31 Fritsch
Pick 33 T. McCartin

That's a hell of a list. Not to mention it still baffles me that we took Constable over our Falcons captain in Worpel...again on projection rather than ability.

Imagine if our draft had ended up being:

Pick 22: T De Koning/S. Taylor
Pick 24: T. Kelly
Pick 36: Worpel
Pick 57: Miers

Would have been all time, but not to be...

 

[catempire]

Smedts, Thurlow and Lang especially hurt since even on draft night it was clear there were much better options.

Who was your pick ahead of Lang at the time?

 

[Shadow89]

What a shocking record that is.

2014 is the only one I'll give a sort of 'mulligan' to, as that whole first round was absolute garbage, bar 5 or 6 players absolute top shelf players.

Petracca, Oliver, De Goey - all Top 5, are stars. Then you have P. McCartin and J. Pickett as two fails in the Top 5. Then only D. Moore, Lever, Duggan, Weller, Langford and Heeney as success stories from the first round.

For poaterity this is the 1st round of that draft:

Pick 1: P. McCartin - Fail
Pick 2: Petracca - Pass
Pick 3: Oliver - Pass
Pick 4: J. Pickett - Fail
Pick 5: De Goey - Pass
Pick 6: Marchbank - Fail
Pick 7: Ahern - Fail
Pick 8: P. Wright - Fail (hasn't delivered what a Pick 8 should and has been injured/dropped a lot during his career)
Pick 9: D. Moore - Pass
Pick 10: Cockatoo - Fail
Pick 11: Duggan - Pass
Pick 12: C. Ellis - Fail
Pick 13: Weller - Pass
Pick 14: Lever - Pass
Pick 15: J. Garlett - Fail
Pick 16: S. Durdin - Fail
Pick 17: K. Langford - Pass
Pick 18: Heeney - Pass
Pick 19: Boekhorst - Fail
Pick 20: Laverde (constantly injured and can't find a spot to settle in) - Fail
Pick 21 H. Goddard: - Fail

***********************

12/21 1st round picks being busts (more than half), 7 years on, shows just how much of a trainwreck this draft was.

We could have picked Duggan, Lever or Weller instead of Cockatoo, but the other 7 would all have been fails too. That draft is just a write off in my mind, as nearly every club bar Melbourne and Collingwood got screwed by it (Heeney was academy so he was always going to Sydney).

 

[Shooooltzey]

Yep...and in the 12 years since that 4 year period...?

For posterity, these are our first round picks since 2009:

2010 - Pick 15 Smedts - Fail

2012 - Pick 16 Thurlow - Fail

2013 - Pick 16 Lang - Fail

2014 - Pick 10 Cockatoo - Fail

2018 - Pick 15 Clark - Pass (can play, just didn't get the best out of him)

2019 - Pick 16 Stephens - Remains to be seen, but has been perennially injured and things aren't looking good thus far

2019 - Pick 19 SDK - Remains to be seen, but things look good thus far and is developing well - will probably end up being a 'Pass'

2020 - Pick 20 Max Holmes - From what I've seen thus far, looks like a gun and will be a 'Pass'

Things seem to have gone better in the last 3-4 years, and that seems to be because we're taking best available rather than someone who we took on projection rather than ability. Thurlow looked very good before he broke his leg, but Smedts, Lang and Cockatoo were definitely fails.

Not to mention guys like Fogarty and Constable in 2017 who we took at 22 and 36, who we saw as 'sliders' and took them...now they're both off our list just 4 years later. As Turbocat mentioned, Taheny is another who falls into this category, but wasn't as painful as we traded up two late picks to get him. Still a bust though.

I don't understand you're point. We were talking about draft sliders yet you bring up guys like smedts, thurlow and lang who were draft bolters which are the exact opposite thing. And plus when I brought up murley we would be using our last second round pick not a first rounder. It is fine to use pick 34 on a high upside player who showed a lot of ability in his bottom age year. You don't need to nail every pick in the draft. Plus murley's injuries this year won't increase the chance of him getting injured in the future as they aren't soft tissue injuries.

On stephen's, you say he is perennially injured yet he has only had 1 injury and it wasn't his fault it took this long to recover. After his injury very late in the pre season the medicos said it would heal naturally without surgery. However by about round 14 he wasn't progressing through his rehab properly so it was decided he did need surgery meaning that he wasted like 3 months of time. I'm pretty sure he has recovered now so he will get a full preseason.

 

[BORIS332]

Who was your pick ahead of Lang at the time?

Dunstan, Acres, Crouch all had good carnivals. None of them have really taken off, but maybe they would have in a better environment.

 

[BORIS332]

Same with Fog in 2017. Thank God TK ended up being so good, otherwise that one could have really hurt.

These are all the players that look like far better picks, that were after our TK pick and before our Constable pick -

Pick 25 Balta
Pick 26 L. Ryan
Pick 27 B. Daniels
Pick 28 S. Taylor
Pick 29 Spargo
Pick 30 T. De Koning
Pick 31 Fritsch
Pick 33 T. McCartin

That's a hell of a list. Not to mention it still baffles me that we took Constable over our Falcons captain in Worpel...again on projection rather than ability.

Imagine if our draft had ended up being:

Pick 22: T De Koning/S. Taylor
Pick 24: T. Kelly
Pick 36: Worpel
Pick 57: Miers

Would have been all time, but not to be...

To be fair, at the time I thought Fogarty was a great pick.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

My personal opinion is that Geelong have been crying out for a dominant ruckman for a long time. Ottens was recruited to the club and so was Barnes. King was probably our best developed ruckman in the last 30 years. If Conway is considered the best ruckman in the draft pool and he is a local, I reckon we will pick him. I know the quote from the club is all about midfielders but they could fill the other spots with them.

22 - Conway
30, 32 and 34 mids.

I think its more likely we take a ruck next year because its a better talls crop but also helps spread out the ages of our ruck group and 12 months from now we will have a better idea how our current rucks are tracking but conway looks a decent prospect and i wouldnt be unhappy if we took him.

 

[Vdubs]

Yep...and in the 12 years since that 4 year period...?

For posterity, these are our first round picks since 2009:

2010 - Pick 15 Smedts - Fail

2012 - Pick 16 Thurlow - Fail

2013 - Pick 16 Lang - Fail

2014 - Pick 10 Cockatoo - Fail

2018 - Pick 15 Clark - Pass (can play, just didn't get the best out of him)

2019 - Pick 16 Stephens - Remains to be seen, but has been perennially injured and things aren't looking good thus far

2019 - Pick 19 SDK - Remains to be seen, but things look good thus far and is developing well - will probably end up being a 'Pass'

2020 - Pick 20 Max Holmes - From what I've seen thus far, looks like a gun and will be a 'Pass'

Things seem to have gone better in the last 3-4 years, and that seems to be because we're taking best available rather than someone who we took on projection rather than ability. Thurlow looked very good before he broke his leg, but Smedts, Lang and Cockatoo were definitely fails.

Not to mention guys like Fogarty and Constable in 2017 who we took at 22 and 36, who we saw as 'sliders' and took them...now they're both off our list just 4 years later. As Turbocat mentioned, Taheny is another who falls into this category, but wasn't as painful as we traded up two late picks to get him. Still a bust though.

But of those, who were the sliders we got because they were injured? That is the point. I just can't recall.

 

[foodles05]

One who I really like in this category is Cooper Murley. Had an outstanding bottom age year last year but battled collarbone and ankle injuries this year (not soft tissue injuries which is a good thing). Could've easily been top 15 without the injuries so could be a high value pick on draft night. His playstyle reminds me of someone like Zac Butters or Errol Gulden. I watched a video where he got interviewed and seemed like a really good kid. His humbleness and maturity really stood out for his age.

Here is a link to his draft profile if you want to know more.

draftcentral.com.au

This domain may be for sale!

afl.draftcentral.com.au

Yeah he's a lovely kid who I thought really highly of prior to this year but there were some question marks about how contested he is and whether he can survive in the midfield at the next level due to size and outside game preference. I didn't watch him play the reserves games this year against men where the questions were mainly raised about his hardness so difficult to tell. His is very very damaging with ball in hand though and has elite agility and speed. Just don't know but love the kid so would be happy with a late pick/rookie I guess.

 

[foodles05]

I just feel that Wells will take what’s best on offer , you’d hope he keeps his word about focussing on needs only but we all know it’s folly trying to predict what he will do

All teams take best player 1-15 and most with their first round full stop. Its the subsequent rounds where they look to select more for list needs.

 

[catempire]

Dunstan, Acres, Crouch all had good carnivals. None of them have really taken off, but maybe they would have in a better environment.

Maybe.

 

[Shadow89]

I disagree. It isn

I don't understand you're point. We were talking about draft sliders yet you bring up guys like smedts, thurlow and lang who were draft bolters which are the exact opposite thing. And plus when I brought up murley we would be using our last second round pick not a first rounder. It is fine to use pick 34 on a high upside player who showed a lot of ability in his bottom age year. You don't need to nail every pick in the draft. Plus murley's injuries this year won't increase the chance of him getting injured in the future as they aren't soft tissue injuries.

On stephen's, you say he is perennially injured yet he has only had 1 injury and it wasn't his fault it took this long to recover. After his injury very late in the pre season the medicos said it would heal naturally without surgery. However by about round 14 he wasn't progressing through his rehab properly so it was decided he did need surgery meaning that he wasted like 3 months of time. I'm pretty sure he has recovered now so he will get a full preseason.

Don't get immediately combative just because you disagree, it derails any meaningful convo.

Stephens broke his leg in his senior draft year too...prior to that he was touted as a possible Top 10 pick.

On his ankle, he actually re-injured it more than once...and hasn't got on the park more than a handful of times in the last 3 years (his senior year and two years in our system). We could have taken Dev Robertson instead, who was a far safer bet and had no injury history, yet we again took the guy we perceived as being better due to his prior ranking - similar to Murley.

My point on Thurlow, Lang and Smedts, is that internally we rated them differently based on projection - the same rings true for sliders or bolters...because we're the ones who ultimately ended up making them become either of those things when we draft them and rate them above others.

Also one last point, I stated 'I like him' (referring to Murley) and just said that we've been burnt too many times by using picks on projected talent from underage level, that's curtailed due to injury. Given his range is around the 25-40 mark on most phantoms, it wasn't clear which pick you meant for us to take him with.

Regardless, I'd still rather take a player who actually has more than just his underage year to go on, and is physically sound. Given how many times we've been burnt by going against this philosophy, I don't think that's such an outlandish point of view.

 

[Shadow89]

But of those, who were the sliders we got because they were injured? That is the point. I just can't recall.

Smedts was definitely one, but he was more of a 'bolter.' We still took him way ahead of where others had him - based on prior projection.

Cockatoo we thought of as one of the best in the draft, and we traded up with the pure intention of getting him - on ability, despite knowing his injury woes pre-draft. He could be considered a 'slider' in that sense.

Stephens is another, as stated by Wells himself on draft night. That remains to be seen what happens there, but not good signs thus far.

 

[Shadow89]

To be fair, at the time I thought Fogarty was a great pick.

Same here, until I saw his kicking when he lined up for us against Hawthorn...oof that was not a pretty sight

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Roberts came 2nd at the SA combine for the 2km. I can’t see him sliding. Would love him to, though.

I do rate senior form over junior form so given roberts is good in that area id happily take him. Inside mids can tend to slide but id be surprised if he isnt taken before 22.

 

[foodles05]

Same here, until I saw his kicking when he lined up for us against Hawthorn...oof that was not a pretty sight

I'm hot on this. I reckon it's almost impossible to name a player (apart from an irishman) who came into the comp with a really suspect kicking action (not result but technique) and his club then fixed him a made him a decent kick. Ordinary kicks with reasonable technique get fixed but the fundamentally flawed ones never do and yet clubs keep going to the well??? Strange

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Not one single figure pick. At some stage ..we should have bitten the bullet and got into the draft earlier..

Its very hard to do that when you consistently make top 8 and you dont have players with the trade currency to get you into the top 10.

 

[David the Cat]

The highlights of Robert's were..well...underwhelming I have to say...

If that's the best they can come up with I'd pass on him....

 

[foodles05]

I do rate senior form over junior form so given roberts is good in that area id happily take him. Inside mids can tend to slide but id be surprised if he isnt taken before 22.

Not sure what he ran for the 2k at the combine but I reckon it was around 6:30 and thats below what he could run fully fit. I reckon he would be sub 6:20 if fit and that's in the good bracket for AFL mids so it's not like he is constable or anything. If he get's to 22 and we don't take him I will be very frustrated!

 

[Shadow89]

Not sure what he ran for the 2k at the combine but I reckon it was around 6:30 and thats below what he could run fully fit. I reckon he would be sub 6:20 if fit and that's in the good bracket for AFL mids so it's not like he is constable or anything. If he get's to 22 and we don't take him I will be very frustrated!

He's one I could definitely see sliding into the 30's, but his is a case that is very polarizing IMO. You either think he's a first rounder or he's a pick in the 30's, - there's no in-between, haha

 

[geelong_crazy26]

sounds like knevitt might be bolting into the second half of the first round off the back of good draft combine testing.... will shit alot of people off here

 

[foodles05]

The highlights of Robert's were..well...underwhelming I have to say...

If that's the best they can come up with I'd pass on him....

He's not a highlights man he is an average speed inside mid who can go forward and kick bags. Apart from being a great mark and kick (which matty has him covered in the kicking stakes) Bartel's draft package was pretty ordinary too. That's what you get from average paced inside mids. Don't get seduced by packages it's the consistent level of performance that matters

 

[Shadow89]

sounds like knevitt might be bolting into the second half of the first round off the back of good draft combine testing.... will sh*t alot of people off here

I'm over it tbh. Be happy if we get him, but I'm actually now leaning more towards someone who's got pace and an elite kick - like Tom Brown, Zac Taylor or Sam Butler - instead of a big Cripps like inside mid who can drift forward.

Probably better if he does go early IMO, as it means that someone else will drop to us.