Analysis Have clubs gone too early on RFA's?

[4tune8]

Looking at this years trades (and considering we got Lynch for SFA via RFA) I reckon clubs have shot themselves in the foot by going too early on next years RFA's.

Costs................

Wingard: Ryan Burton (Hawthorn), #15, #35 & its Future fourth round selection (on traded from W.Bulldogs) to Port Adelaide for Chad Wingard and its Future third round Selection

Shiel: Dylan Shiel (GWS) and its Future 2nd to Essendon for #9 and Future 1st

Neale: Lachie Neale and #30 (on traded from Port Adelaide) to the Brisbane Lions for #6 (on traded from Port Adelaide), #19 (on traded from the Gold Coast Suns) and #55 (on traded from Geelong).

May: Steven May and Kade Kolodjashnij (Gold Coast) to Melbourne for #6 (on traded from Fremantle).

I know some of the above trades had other cost/benefits associated with them, but I was always taught to be patient with negotiations and things would fall in place or they weren't meant to happen.

Thoughts?

 

[Coach_Required]

No, because they have the player they were after and don't have to go through that whole bidding war process again.

 

[4tune8]

No, because they have the player they were after and don't have to go through that whole bidding war process again.

Ok, but there's no 'bidding war' with RFA's, just a threat to match.....same as Lynch

 

[Coach_Required]

Ok, but there's no 'bidding war' with RFA's, just a threat to match.....same as Lynch

No but we still had to convince Lynch we were a better fit than Collingwood & Hawthorn plus they would have offered him a deal money wise.

 

[4tune8]

No but we still had to convince Lynch we were a better fit than Collingwood & Hawthorn plus they would have offered him a deal money wise.

Yep, understood. But May was the only one who didn't really nominate a club. The others did and therefore could have got to those clubs next year for no cost.

 

[tigerz18]

Looking at this years trades (and considering we got Lynch for SFA via RFA) I reckon clubs have shot themselves in the foot by going too early on next years RFA's.

Costs................

Wingard: Ryan Burton (Hawthorn), #15, #35 & its Future fourth round selection (on traded from W.Bulldogs) to Port Adelaide for Chad Wingard and its Future third round Selection

Shiel: Dylan Shiel (GWS) and its Future 2nd to Essendon for #9 and Future 1st

Neale: Lachie Neale and #30 (on traded from Port Adelaide) to the Brisbane Lions for #6 (on traded from Port Adelaide), #19 (on traded from the Gold Coast Suns) and #55 (on traded from Geelong).

May: Steven May and Kade Kolodjashnij (Gold Coast) to Melbourne for #6 (on traded from Fremantle).

I know some of the above trades had other cost/benefits associated with them, but I was always taught to be patient with negotiations and things would fall in place or they weren't meant to happen.

Thoughts?

in all honesty, if all those players came out of contract at end of 2019, they'd all be at collingwood or carlton in 2020.

RFA increase trading - next year, all those players are RFA, so their club could match any bid, and then force a trade anyway, which would be lower than they could get now, or they leave for free.

trading a year out from FA gives the selling club more leverage. Clubs want guns, they need to pay overs, or risk them re-signing, or going to another club. plus all those players wanted out now, they weren't just put on the trade table, they wanted to leave this year

 

[Mr Magic]

Looking at this years trades (and considering we got Lynch for SFA via RFA) I reckon clubs have shot themselves in the foot by going too early on next years RFA's.

Costs................

Wingard: Ryan Burton (Hawthorn), #15, #35 & its Future fourth round selection (on traded from W.Bulldogs) to Port Adelaide for Chad Wingard and its Future third round Selection

Shiel: Dylan Shiel (GWS) and its Future 2nd to Essendon for #9 and Future 1st

Neale: Lachie Neale and #30 (on traded from Port Adelaide) to the Brisbane Lions for #6 (on traded from Port Adelaide), #19 (on traded from the Gold Coast Suns) and #55 (on traded from Geelong).

May: Steven May and Kade Kolodjashnij (Gold Coast) to Melbourne for #6 (on traded from Fremantle).

I know some of the above trades had other cost/benefits associated with them, but I was always taught to be patient with negotiations and things would fall in place or they weren't meant to happen.

Thoughts?

yes, although I do not think KK cost much anyway

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

I hope we keep going down the FA route.
Cost us nothing in picks.

 

[Mr Magic]

Looking at this years trades (and considering we got Lynch for SFA via RFA) I reckon clubs have shot themselves in the foot by going too early on next years RFA's.

Costs................

Wingard: Ryan Burton (Hawthorn), #15, #35 & its Future fourth round selection (on traded from W.Bulldogs) to Port Adelaide for Chad Wingard and its Future third round Selection

Shiel: Dylan Shiel (GWS) and its Future 2nd to Essendon for #9 and Future 1st

Neale: Lachie Neale and #30 (on traded from Port Adelaide) to the Brisbane Lions for #6 (on traded from Port Adelaide), #19 (on traded from the Gold Coast Suns) and #55 (on traded from Geelong).

May: Steven May and Kade Kolodjashnij (Gold Coast) to Melbourne for #6 (on traded from Fremantle).

I know some of the above trades had other cost/benefits associated with them, but I was always taught to be patient with negotiations and things would fall in place or they weren't meant to happen.

Thoughts?

Interesting to see how many FA left in 2019? Might mean picks don't get pushed back as greatly

 

[Wacko23Jacko]

Think the FA system will start to have some big changes on the structuring of teams in general.

Unfortunately for GWS and GC I have a feeling we are going to develop a bit of a “feeder club” system like you see in club football overseas.

All these players are being traded for picks.. as has been the case for a few years now - but we are starting to see the next wave of kids (some who were picks from previous trades) being sold for more picks. Going to be hard for those clubs to build structure and identity with so much production line player management.

Clubs would be smart to start targeting players from their home state and doing more rigorous interviewing and screening potential draftees to get a judge on their future prospects are the club.

 

[RunningBounce]

It's been an interesting trade period.

I can see the OP's point. Maybe clubs did over-pay to save the risk of missing out on a RFA next season.

Maybe it was worth it.

Maybe no-one knows, until we have hindsight. Draft picks are very speculative. May and Kolodjashnij for #6 is a great example. If #6 turns into Dustin Martin, the Goldies made out like bandits. If #6 turns into Jordan Gysberts, GoDees made out like bandits. Very dependent on the player development system at a given club, too.

Maybe a player is worth whatever the buyer is prepared to pay and it's as simple as that. The market isn't big enough for traditional supply / demand economics to work.

But May was the only one who didn't really nominate a club. The others did and therefore could have got to those clubs next year for no cost.

This is the bit that I've found particularly interesting - players nominating a club. Other than Tim Kelly, did a single player who nominated a preferred destination miss out?

What's going on here? Did Shiel really prefer Essendon? Or did Shiel just want out and GWS told him where a trade was most likely to be completed? Or some dance that is something in between?

Sure, there's players like Hogan who have a legitimate reason to "prefer" one club, but I find it hard to believe that Wingard, Shiel, Scully, McGovern, Adams, Neale, Dahlhaus, Polec, Hannebery etc, ALL believe in their heart of hearts that the club they nominated was their dream come true.

 

[tunksy]

No. Not if it gives them a crack at a flag. (In Melbournes case)

Greatly improves them (neale) and shows they can land players.

Shiel came at a high price but is a gun. Will improve the bombers no doubt.