List Mgmt. We Have A Bright Future

[_RT_]

We're turning over a fair amount but that's not what I'd call rebuilding. A rebuild is aggressive, it entails a degree of risk, it requires calculation and some brutal honesty. Above all, it's a direction you take and you don't deviate.

After 2020 we did nothing (I'm not so disappointed by this as we were off a flag and why not go again).

For the 2021 season:

IN - Mansell, Ryan, Parker, Colina, M.Rioli

OUT - Higgins, Rance, Turner, Markov, English

After 2021 we looked like we we're on the rebuild road:

IN - Tarrant, Gibcus, Brown, Sonsie, Banks, Clarke, Bauer

OUT - Naish, Astbury, Houli, Coleman-Jones, Chol, Garthwaite, Eggmolesse-Smith

After 2022 we clearly abandoned a proper rebuild and decided we might contend next season:

IN - Taranto, Hopper, Coulthard, Bradtke, Campbell, Young, Green, Smith, Tresize

OUT - Edwards, Caddy, Lambert, Collier-Dawkins, Martyn, Aarts, Stack, Parker*, Castagna

Net result since 2020:

Traded out: Higgins, Markov, Coleman-Jones, Chol.

Traded in: Tarrant, Taranto, Hopper.

Brought in via the national draft: Gibcus (9),
Brown (17), Sonsie (28), Banks (29), Clarke (30), Ryan (40), Smith (49), M.Rioli (51 f/s), Green (55).

Lost to retirement: Rance, Astbury, Houli, Edwards, Caddy, Lambert, Castagna.

This year we have zero first round picks. The overall picture is we're not going the top up road and we're not hitting the draft in a sustained way. One top 10 pick and two top 20 picks since the last premiership is not going to get you a core for a future flag. Sure, you can get lucky and find future A graders at lower picks but that's a lottery. The draft in general is a lottery and when you're trying to find elite talent at picks 28, 29, 30, 40, 49 and 55 you're usually pushing s**t up a hill.

The tough times are inevitable. The best way to navigate them surely is to prepare and be one step ahead. For us that meant not letting veterans stick on too long and trading for better picks. I'm not saying we should've traded Dusty or Bolton in 2021 (an example of something drastic), just that we should've been proactive and stayed the course after the good start in 2021 (Gibcus, Brown).

I can't believe the delusion level of some people. On other topics I'm reading about Ryan being a good prospect lol. We had it good for a lot of years and I think that's skewed a lot of people's ability to judge things objectively.

Ps. Half of our premiership winning players (14 of 28 in total) were pick 29 or better in the national draft:

Cotchin (2), Martin (3), Caddy (7), Prestia (9), Vlastuin (9), Lynch (11), Riewoldt (13), Ellis (15), D.Rioli (15), Rance (18), Grigg (19), Balta (25), Edwards (26), Bolton (29).

Doing a proper rebuild doesn't necessarily mean bottoming out and having kids being forced to work things out for themselves with no real leadership or experience to guide them.

Over the last 2 seasons we've had the following players who started 2022 with under 30 games be rewarded with opportunities:

Ross (63)
Mansell(32)
Ralphsmith(32)
M.Rioli(27)
Miller(25)
Young(19)
Cumberland(18) Gibcus(18 in 2022)
Dow(17)
Clarke(16)
Ryan(15)
Sonsie(10)
Banks(6)
Coulthard(4)
Bauer(4)
Brown(1)
Trezise(1)
Nyoun(1)

That's 18 players who have either started their careers or continued their development, in some cases established themselves in the 22, in years where we were challenging for the 8.

With a new coach coming in and the change in focus that the last game of the year seemed to suggest, there is every chance that we will become even more youth focused from round 1 2024. The bonus is that we can surround those 18 players, plus those that have yet to debut or even join the club, with a wealth of premiership winning experience, even if we lose a couple this off season to trades/delistings we should still be able to field a team where the core of the side is based around experience players like: Martin Prestia Lynch Broad Vlastuin Nankervis Short Soldo Hopper D.Rioli Baker Taranto Bolton & Balta with the likes of Grimes McIntosh Graham & Pickett as depth for when the kids don't quite perform at the level we're needing them to.

Geelong went from winning their 3rd premiership in 2011 to winning a 4th in 2022 with only 1 year out of the 8, 2015 where they finished 10th. They did it in a different way to us as they continually topped up with mature aged players, whereas we've embraced the draft even while we were winning the flags in 2017-2020 years. Not all those draftees have panned out as we'd hoped but we kept going back to the well and kept bringing in more kids and it was only really last year where we spent up big to bring in 2 targeted players to boost an area where we needed bolstering as it was a clear weakness. Now while people will say but we still lack our next generation KPF, I believe that the plan has always been to do what we did when we got Lynch in that we'll target a proven performer once Lynch departs, in the meantime the aim will be to get one of Bauer Bradtke or Ryan to become a solid number 2 option and get them established while Lynch is still here.

IMO we're following a proven formula that worked for us as we built the previous premiership lists, draft for talent, trade/free agency for needs and the rebuild has been happening since the end of the 2021 season.

 

[PaulBulluss]

Is there actually a relevant correlation between having a run of low finishes and then winning flags when the resultant top 6 draft picks mature over the next 8-10 seasons?

I used the word relevant there due to this being the free agency era.

I think it is best to get the best team you can on the park and compete as hard as you can every year. Otherwise your young players are coming into a difficult culture. No doubt you have to box a bit clever late season when you have your first round pick available and you realise a while out that you are not going to contend seriously. This gives you the odd top 10 pick. I think if the club develops a losing culture or lacks on-field leadership it takes longer to fire once you have a talented list that is mature enough to contend. It has taken Carlton 2 years really. It took us 4 from when we emerged from the depths to when we could actually contend.

If we were to look at samples of teams finishing 18th 17th 16th 15th on one hand and say 14th 13th 12th 11th on the other hand. And then projected forward say 8-12 seasons and look at the finishing positions of the teams in those 2 samples. Which sample do you think would have the better results?

Or like you say compare teams finishing 14-16 with those finishing 10-12. What would you actually expect to see from those teams in terms of their performance 8-12 years after those finishes?

I'm not sure. Looking at premiership teams between 2003-2022, it seems to me that most have had a bottom-out in the preceding 8-12 year window.

In that 8-12 year window before our first premiership:

*ladder position at end of h/a season
*(p) - premiers

2017 - Premiers
××××
2009 - 16th (wooden spoon)
2008 - 9th
2007 - 15th
2006 - 9th
2005 - 12th

Melbourne, premiers in 2021, had a similar pattern.

2021 - Premiers
××××
2013 - 17th
2012 - 16th
2011 - 13th
2010 - 12th
2009 - 16th (wooden spoon)

Geelong doesn't follow this trend but we know they've been topping up essentially since their 2011 premiership. Before their 2007 flag they had a few bottom four finishes, albeit not strictly in that 8-12 year window:

2007 - Premiers
××××
[2003 - 12th]
[2002 - 9th]
[2001 - 12th]
[2000 - 5th]
1999 - 11th
1998 - 12th
1997- 2nd
1996 - 7th
1995 - 2nd

Clearly, Geelong is an example of when you get almost everything right in the draft over a 2-3 year period (plus a great couple of father sons).

West Coast is interesting. They somehow managed to squeeze a premiership and a wooden spoon into the window. Also a second last finish.

2018 - Premiers
××××
2010 - 16th
2009 - 11th
2008 - 15th
2007 - 3rd
2006 - 1st (p)

The Bulldogs, like Richmond, Melbourne and the Eagles, got a wooden spoon in that 8-12 year window. Also a couple of bottom four finishes.

2016 - Premiers
××××
2008 - 3rd
2007 - 13th
2005 - 8th
2004 - 14th
2003 - 16th (wooden spoon)

Hawthorn pinched the flag in 2007, but if we look at them it's a similar story. No wooden spoon but two second last finishes.

2007 - Premiers
××××
1999 - 9th
1998 - 13th
1997 - 15th
1996 - 8th
1995 - 15th

The window before the first of their triple premiership run included a second last finish and another bottom four finish.

2013 - Premiers
××××
2005 - 14th
2004 - 15th
2003 - 9th
2002 - 10th
2001 - 6th

Collingwood's last premiership follows a familiar pattern. A wooden spoon and three bottom four finishes in total.

2010 - Premiers
××××
2002 - 4th
2001 - 9th
2000 - 15th
1999 - 16th
1998 - 14th

Sydney sort of bucks the trend. The window before their last flag doesn't look so bad. Like Geelong, prefer the top up and are generally looked after by the AFL.

2012 - Premiers
××××
2004 - 6th
2003 - 4th
2002 - 11th
2001 - 7th
2000 - 10th

Brisbane's probably not relevant as they got their success mostly on the back of the merger. But still, two wooden spoons and only one finish out of the bottom four.

2001 - Premiers
××××
1993 - 13th
1992 - 14th
1991 - 15th
1990 - 14th
1989 - 10th

The 18 team league makes it hard to get elite talent without high picks. And it's only going to get harder with the Tassie team coming in. Granted, free agency goes a small way to balancing it out but it's still not enough. Geelong finally won a flag after topping up for a decade while Sydney is a bit of an anomaly. Generally though, for sustained success (multiple premierships) I think full, aggressive rebuilds are the best way to go. Bottoming out might hurt the bank balance for a while but if you control it and have a good plan it should end in a big reward.

 

[The Mighty]

We're turning over a fair amount but that's not what I'd call rebuilding. A rebuild is aggressive, it entails a degree of risk, it requires calculation and some brutal honesty. Above all, it's a direction you take and you don't deviate.

After 2020 we did nothing (I'm not so disappointed by this as we were off a flag and why not go again).

For the 2021 season:

IN - Mansell, Ryan, Parker, Colina, M.Rioli

OUT - Higgins, Rance, Turner, Markov, English

After 2021 we looked like we we're on the rebuild road:

IN - Tarrant, Gibcus, Brown, Sonsie, Banks, Clarke, Bauer

OUT - Naish, Astbury, Houli, Coleman-Jones, Chol, Garthwaite, Eggmolesse-Smith

After 2022 we clearly abandoned a proper rebuild and decided we might contend next season:

IN - Taranto, Hopper, Coulthard, Bradtke, Campbell, Young, Green, Smith, Tresize

OUT - Edwards, Caddy, Lambert, Collier-Dawkins, Martyn, Aarts, Stack, Parker*, Castagna

Net result since 2020:

Traded out: Higgins, Markov, Coleman-Jones, Chol.

Traded in: Tarrant, Taranto, Hopper.

Brought in via the national draft: Gibcus (9),
Brown (17), Sonsie (28), Banks (29), Clarke (30), Ryan (40), Smith (49), M.Rioli (51 f/s), Green (55).

Lost to retirement: Rance, Astbury, Houli, Edwards, Caddy, Lambert, Castagna.

This year we have zero first round picks. The overall picture is we're not going the top up road and we're not hitting the draft in a sustained way. One top 10 pick and two top 20 picks since the last premiership is not going to get you a core for a future flag. Sure, you can get lucky and find future A graders at lower picks but that's a lottery. The draft in general is a lottery and when you're trying to find elite talent at picks 28, 29, 30, 40, 49 and 55 you're usually pushing s**t up a hill.

The tough times are inevitable. The best way to navigate them surely is to prepare and be one step ahead. For us that meant not letting veterans stick on too long and trading for better picks. I'm not saying we should've traded Dusty or Bolton in 2021 (an example of something drastic), just that we should've been proactive and stayed the course after the good start in 2021 (Gibcus, Brown).

I can't believe the delusion level of some people. On other topics I'm reading about Ryan being a good prospect lol. We had it good for a lot of years and I think that's skewed a lot of people's ability to judge things objectively.

Ps. Half of our premiership winning players (14 of 28 in total) were pick 29 or better in the national draft:

Cotchin (2), Martin (3), Caddy (7), Prestia (9), Vlastuin (9), Lynch (11), Riewoldt (13), Ellis (15), D.Rioli (15), Rance (18), Grigg (19), Balta (25), Edwards (26), Bolton (29).

It was all over when we delisted Derek The Egg

 

[TiggerMan22]

Yep. It's clear the finals run in 2022 was a trap the decision makers fell into. Adding two quality mids for possibly the last tilt, plus they could argue TT and JH are still young enough to make medium term contributions.

Just reeks of no vision or direction. You can't half rebuild, you can't start and then change your mind. This is the most unbalanced (age and positions) list we've had in 30 years.

Again, I realise these things aren't so easy when you're winning flags/at the top for 4-5 years but you sort of have to always have one eye on the future.

I can take fans being sentimental and emotional but these guys running things shouldn't be. They're paid to make good, logical decisions.

Yes you can. This is outdated thinking that you always have to be rebuilding or contending. You can do both at the same time.

Full list clear out rebuilds don't really exist anymore except for some desperate cases like North.

 

[beema limapep]

 

[panatha1908]

We took our draft picks which means we have a youngish team now, rebuilt really with the addition of hopper and tarranto. Next year we have to play most to see who has it and who doesn't, and then as those who have it approach 50 games we place around them more draftees. I'm quite excited, the champs we're the champs but they had slowed down, this new team has loads of pace. Should be fun!!

When looking at finishes some clubs had father son picks in different positions like the dogs who got ugle hogan and Darcy despite finishing near the top.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I'm not sure. Looking at premiership teams between 2003-2022, it seems to me that most have had a bottom-out in the preceding 8-12 year window.

In that 8-12 year window before our first premiership:

*ladder position at end of h/a season
*(p) - premiers

2017 - Premiers
××××
2009 - 16th (wooden spoon)
2008 - 9th
2007 - 15th
2006 - 9th
2005 - 12th

Melbourne, premiers in 2021, had a similar pattern.

2021 - Premiers
××××
2013 - 17th
2012 - 16th
2011 - 13th
2010 - 12th
2009 - 16th (wooden spoon)

Geelong doesn't follow this trend but we know they've been topping up essentially since their 2011 premiership. Before their 2007 flag they had a few bottom four finishes, albeit not strictly in that 8-12 year window:

2007 - Premiers
××××
[2003 - 12th]
[2002 - 9th]
[2001 - 12th]
[2000 - 5th]
1999 - 11th
1998 - 12th
1997- 2nd
1996 - 7th
1995 - 2nd

Clearly, Geelong is an example of when you get almost everything right in the draft over a 2-3 year period (plus a great couple of father sons).

West Coast is interesting. They somehow managed to squeeze a premiership and a wooden spoon into the window. Also a second last finish.

2018 - Premiers
××××
2010 - 16th
2009 - 11th
2008 - 15th
2007 - 3rd
2006 - 1st (p)

The Bulldogs, like Richmond, Melbourne and the Eagles, got a wooden spoon in that 8-12 year window. Also a couple of bottom four finishes.

2016 - Premiers
××××
2008 - 3rd
2007 - 13th
2005 - 8th
2004 - 14th
2003 - 16th (wooden spoon)

Hawthorn pinched the flag in 2007, but if we look at them it's a similar story. No wooden spoon but two second last finishes.

2007 - Premiers
××××
1999 - 9th
1998 - 13th
1997 - 15th
1996 - 8th
1995 - 15th

The window before the first of their triple premiership run included a second last finish and another bottom four finish.

2013 - Premiers
××××
2005 - 14th
2004 - 15th
2003 - 9th
2002 - 10th
2001 - 6th

Collingwood's last premiership follows a familiar pattern. A wooden spoon and three bottom four finishes in total.

2010 - Premiers
××××
2002 - 4th
2001 - 9th
2000 - 15th
1999 - 16th
1998 - 14th

Sydney sort of bucks the trend. The window before their last flag doesn't look so bad. Like Geelong, prefer the top up and are generally looked after by the AFL.

2012 - Premiers
××××
2004 - 6th
2003 - 4th
2002 - 11th
2001 - 7th
2000 - 10th

Brisbane's probably not relevant as they got their success mostly on the back of the merger. But still, two wooden spoons and only one finish out of the bottom four.

2001 - Premiers
××××
1993 - 13th
1992 - 14th
1991 - 15th
1990 - 14th
1989 - 10th

The 18 team league makes it hard to get elite talent without high picks. And it's only going to get harder with the Tassie team coming in. Granted, free agency goes a small way to balancing it out but it's still not enough. Geelong finally won a flag after topping up for a decade while Sydney is a bit of an anomaly. Generally though, for sustained success (multiple premierships) I think full, aggressive rebuilds are the best way to go. Bottoming out might hurt the bank balance for a while but if you control it and have a good plan it should end in a big reward.

Very well put together argument, good stuff.

You would have to say that historically your argument stacks up strongly. I am not so sure in the post free agency world though. The recent but current trend seems to have shifted radically towards older lists/teams full of imported mature age players doing best. Though to be fair that is only 2022 & 2023 with Geelong and now Collingwood.

Collingwood's team last week had I think just 6 players who were drafted by Collingwood in their draft year. Moore and Nick Daicos will probably return and make that 8. Along with Sidebottom, Maynard, DeGoey, J Daicos, Quaynor and Pendlebury. But they got special access to 4 of those players through f/s, or "academy" selections. Arguably Pendlebury was the result of a priority pick as well. So they probably go in with 3 players they drafted in their draft year that were available to all comers in the open draft not resulting from priority picks. Sidebottom, DeGoey and Maynard. Of those only DeGoey was a top 10 pick. Half their team has played for other clubs. This is most definitely not a team constructed from the open draft.

Geelong Premiership team last year 10 players taken in their draft year, and of those Hawkins was a father-son pick. So 9 others, and of those only Selwood was a top 10 pick.

See how the Pies get on this year. But if they win the flag it is starting to look like a trend developing where Premierships are being won by teams who didn't base the core of their team around a series of top 10 picks available in the draft to all comers.

The thing is these days if you load up on 18yo draft talent, free agency works against you in 2 ways. First, you will not be able to partake aggressively in free agency because your top end drafted talent will likely be maxing your salary cap, where your rivals can wait and see what they are missing and try to acquire it through free agency. The second way it works against you is you will lose players to better offers where you have compiled an exceptionally talented list. Let's say Ablett and Franklin were two examples of this effect. And you are losing them right in their prime. If you avoid losing those marquee level players then you will pay the price as we did losing Ellis, Chol, Coleman-Jones, Conca, Higgins, Butler etc - ok not all to free agency but once you retain your gun free agent Dusty you are losing all these types.

Whether people recognise it or not there is a massive recruiting philosophy battle playing out right now. Build a team via high end draft picks v collecting mature players any way you can, rookie, cat B, SSP, MSD, trades, free agency. There is also a huge trend towards older players in the AFL. This year 99 x 30+ yo's have taken the field. This is the most ever, and has more than doubled over about the last decade. Back in the early 1960's there were 2 seasons where only 4 players older than 30 took the field in the whole competition. This years finals will tell us a little more about who is winning that battle.

 

[db26]

For me there is young talent there , but we need to add to it and need better development to many stalled this season. The question is , is the club brave enough to put a few good players on the table and get us in this draft because this theory if true the club believes we're still in the window well there living with fairy's.

 

[Ralll]

Hopper gets fit and back to his best. Dusty, Taranto, Bolton and an improved Rioli Jr. or Dow in support make up a strong midfield.
Back line stays strong.
Lynch stays fit with Gibcus or someone coming through to support well.
We land a few guns in the next 2 drafts.
Get a good coach that plays a game plan that inspires the group and allows them to play at their best.
Land a strong trade or 2 with everything going well and us being a promising destination club.

Bright future. We would need everything to go as planned though.

 

[Bird Man]

Don't let no football start adding rose-tinted glasses like it does every year. We are very behind in the rebuild of the club to be contending again

and agree with Carro on this raiding staff and language around moving on with new toys and Hopper and TT were not?

 

[Daka]

Don't let no football start adding rose-tinted glasses like it does every year. We are very behind in the rebuild of the club to be contending again

and agree with Carro on this raiding staff and language around moving on with new toys and Hopper and TT were not?

The players deserve far more credit than Dimma for the flags we won. they were out on-field at the end of the day. Caro & Hutchy is right he should not go around poaching our people or Dusty it will taint his legacy if that starts happening.