Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

Should Hawks Be Punished?

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Dewyyyyy said:
Sam has made questionable decisions with sub, he seems to use it as a reward for players playing well and not just for tactics. Which is why he is pro 5 man bench. It’s a discussion many have. The side has been poor and with form especially, all of this can’t be put onto the coach, but can fall on the players either. It’s a mix. Last year especially mid and late season, showed his capacity coaching wise.
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The bench is 4 men 1 sub, plenty of other coaches are using this to their advantage. Using the sub on a 203cm ruckman is questionable at best. His game before that he had 6 touches and 7 hitouts in a loss against GC, so hardly a reward for effort or good form.

It is great that he won a few games over a half season period when the season was done. I prefer to look at it objectively, four pre-seasons as the man in charge and the Hawks are further away than they’ve ever been over that time. As of now he isn’t even an average coach. There is chatter that he’ll be given until the end of 2025 to prove his worth, if his name weren’t Sam Mitchell there’s no way he’d be given that time.
 
boncer34 said:
Uh no.
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My guy, we were…

+5 marks inside 50
+6 inside 50’s
+10 intercepts
+6 contested possessions
-3 uncontested possessions.

Kicked 11.17 and were a kick behind at 3 Qtr time.

Yes you won, and bad kicking is bad football but it absolutely was a winnable game for Hawthorn.
 
Jeremias said:
Boy is this thread going to get interesting if DGB doesn't get his contract extended at Hawthorn beyond this season...
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I would not like to bet on it.
 

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boncer34 said:
Exactly. The better team won because they scored more.

It's quite literally the only metric that counts.
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The query wasn’t who won or who even deserved to win.

It was that it was winnable.
 
Kreuuuzeurns said:
The bench is 4 men 1 sub, plenty of other coaches are using this to their advantage. Using the sub on a 203cm ruckman is questionable at best. His game before that he had 6 touches and 7 hitouts in a loss against GC, so hardly a reward for effort or good form.
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Collingwood did it a couple of times last year. It worked well for us.
 
Kreuuuzeurns said:
The bench is 4 men 1 sub, plenty of other coaches are using this to their advantage. Using the sub on a 203cm ruckman is questionable at best. His game before that he had 6 touches and 7 hitouts in a loss against GC, so hardly a reward for effort or good form.

It is great that he won a few games over a half season period when the season was done. I prefer to look at it objectively, four pre-seasons as the man in charge and the Hawks are further away than they’ve ever been over that time. As of now he isn’t even an average coach. There is chatter that he’ll be given until the end of 2025 to prove his worth, if his name weren’t Sam Mitchell there’s no way he’d be given that time.
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The sub options have been poor all year. I guess he sees it as play your best 22 and then the sub is your 23rd best player which I don't think is right

It is his 3rd preseason in charge, was appointed late 2021. We were much further away at the start of last year.
 
hawkman said:
The sub options have been poor all year. I guess he sees it as play your best 22 and then the sub is your 23rd best player which I don't think is right

It is his 3rd preseason in charge, was appointed late 2021. We were much further away at the start of last year.
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We are nit further away. We have more young talent on our list than 12 months ago. The main reason we have been crap in 2024 is that our most import players have not played or been relatively poor (Day, Lewis, Newk & Sicily). That is not Sam’s fault. Reckon our year will be similar to last. Poor start, better finish. We will get there.
 
Kreuuuzeurns said:
The bench is 4 men 1 sub, plenty of other coaches are using this to their advantage. Using the sub on a 203cm ruckman is questionable at best. His game before that he had 6 touches and 7 hitouts in a loss against GC, so hardly a reward for effort or good form.

It is great that he won a few games over a half season period when the season was done. I prefer to look at it objectively, four pre-seasons as the man in charge and the Hawks are further away than they’ve ever been over that time. As of now he isn’t even an average coach. There is chatter that he’ll be given until the end of 2025 to prove his worth, if his name weren’t Sam Mitchell there’s no way he’d be given that time.
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He has been often the carry emergency and has done superbly at VFL, Sam said himself it’s usually a reward as the 23rd player not a tactical thing. For him. Which is why it has been poor in using it and why he’s pro 5 bench.

The season wasn’t done when Hawthorn started playing well which was always going to happen, it was because of the youth and it started to gel.

It was around Round 5.

GWS beat Hawthorn by 2
Adelaide beat Hawthorn by 3
Two poor performances that lead into a belting of West Coast by 116
Beating St Kilda by 10 which was Round 11

Some inconsistency but beat Brisbane by 23
North by 50 (not really worth a mention)
Collingwood by 32
Bulldogs by 3 (ending their season)

Competitive games against Demons, St Kilda and should’ve won against Richmond bottling it late, also a small loss to GWS.

Inconsistency comes with youthful sides. But the season wasnt “done” when we started winning.

Your opinion is so shallow with looking purely win loss and not fully taking into account every angle. Which is important in rebuilding sides. Not so much when you’re competing. It’ll come.
 
Just to colour this DGB discussion does anyone know of any player who:

Played at a bottom 4 team with poor options in their position but in their 3rd year on an AFL list played more VFL than AFL yet still went on to be an AA?

There might be many examples I just don't know of any off the top of my head. Just trying to work out if this is unlikely as it seems.
 
Footy Smarts said:
Just to colour this DGB discussion does anyone know of any player who:

Played at a bottom 4 team with poor options in their position but in their 3rd year on an AFL list played more VFL than AFL yet still went on to be an AA?

There might be many examples I just don't know of any off the top of my head. Just trying to work out if this is unlikely as it seems.
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Not in a bottom 4 team. But Josh Daicos did it. He was a rare exception of a late developer who became genuinely good. There's context though. He had asthma and couldn't run but got on top off his medication and got a tank.

Most who aren't in seniors in year 3 don't make it. Fringe player is a good outcome from DGBs start to his AFL career
 
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sr36 said:
My view is that the stars of the comp show their potential pretty early. A lot who show the potential early don't get there, but it's pretty rare for someone to do a Bartel at age 23 and appear as a star of the comp without much prior notice.

Hawks might have someone do a Bartel, but it'll be a rare case of out of the blue. Your midfield group looks like having some good solid players. Watson might become a freakshow forward. CJ looks pretty unique if potential is met. There's noone there who appears tracking or particularly likely to become a star in a central role. That'd be my concern in terms of where the rebuild is at. Where do the central stars come from? You just can't do without them.
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This isn’t exactly the stuff of media frenzy from the time to dispel what you’ve said but I remember one of the very first meaningful AFL conversations I had when I started uni in 2002 was with my residential advisor after we beat the saints - he was a st Kilda fan - early in the year and he predicted basically there and then that Bartel was going to be a superstar just on the back of his composure and general skill level. He wasn’t touted like a lot of blokes have been, no doubt about that but I do remember at the time he got mentioned a bit as someone to keep an eye on and he did play some other very good games early on as well
 
Footy Smarts said:
Just to colour this DGB discussion does anyone know of any player who:

Played at a bottom 4 team with poor options in their position but in their 3rd year on an AFL list played more VFL than AFL yet still went on to be an AA?

There might be many examples I just don't know of any off the top of my head. Just trying to work out if this is unlikely as it seems.
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One would probably by Rance as he played 10 games in his 3rd year some of them as a forward.

The other way it could be argued is that AA's like Callum Wilkie and Tom Stewart weren't even on an AFL list at DGB's age. McGovern didn't debut until 22

I'm not confident that DGB will make it, his lack of size but even more importantly lack of a tank has me concerned but KPD's are got it all together later than what DGB is now
 
Footy Smarts said:
Just to colour this DGB discussion does anyone know of any player who:

Played at a bottom 4 team with poor options in their position but in their 3rd year on an AFL list played more VFL than AFL yet still went on to be an AA?

There might be many examples I just don't know of any off the top of my head. Just trying to work out if this is unlikely as it seems.
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Maybe not your exact criteria but plenty f examples to have similarly slow starts and still turned out to be AA.

With that said, I don't think DGB is likely to make it (as a decent AFL player, let alone AA).

Some of the 'slower' starters I can recall off the top of my head that made AA level...(Note: DGB played 28 games in his first 3 seasons)...

Dane Swan played 16 games in his first 3 seasons and was considered awful/close to delisting and was 6xAA
Jobe Watson was close to delisting (many felt he only stayed on the list cos of his dad) and he played 13 games in his first 3 seasons.
Alex Rance played 25 games and was considered an average forward with poor skills.
Not AA but Dylan Moore is Hawthorn's best current example. He was called up for his 10th career game in the final round of his 3rd season for one last go before his planned delisting. He played really well, the first good game of his career, got a lifeline and has never looked back - one of our best players.
Heaps of others tbh.

But the odds are very firmly stacked against DGB unfortunately.
 
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SA HAWK said:
This was a make or break year for him it seems unfortunately got injured.
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It could be a blessing, more time to build his body seeing as he was unable to run. But his conditioning block and almost extra pre season to build his tank after he’d focused so much on size is the best case scenario. Where it could have taken an extra season to get to this point currently. We’ll see how it pans out but he is back in a week or two.
 
Dewyyyyy said:
He’s clearly highly rated and talented. It’s not a footballing ability issue. It’s physically, the development of his endurance and body composition not being to where we’d of liked. He’s at a good point coming back from injury now, an interesting watch.

In one of his better games I can remember he did well with the stats I mentioned but that was also 2022 before all of his football derails with injuries and setback.

He’s not stuck in the VFL he’s been injured.

And no, he’ll be better than Mitch McGovern once he gets continuity in his football. These opinions are why people on big footy are just fans. Biased fans, and not ever likely to be in a footballing department or recruiter/coach. Quick to shun youth and talented players and no be able to identify talent.
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This is getting more embarrassing by the minute.
 
Strapping Young Lad said:
Ward is 20 years old.
He’s not had a great start to 2024, but which of our mids have.
He was averaging 20 disp a game last year, off the wing.

He looks like goes going to be a very good 200 game midfielder to my eyes.

As for DGB not showing anything at all, you must have missed his first few games. He had Kane Cornes pumping him up as the best kid in the draft at that stage.
He wasn’t just throwing a random name out there.
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That was 3 yrs ago.
Cornes is known to try a put a controversial comment/opinion out there.
And now Cornes considers him a bust.
 
DGB is in his 4th season not 3rd. He’s played a total of 28 games in 3 season’s and regressed, even before his injury this pre-season.

He’s not played at any level this season due to having turf toe that required surgery.

He will be back playing at VFL in the next 2-3 weeks.

Before being injured, his pre-season was average at best. He was consistently in the bottom 3-4 in running drills with the first year players, most notably in long distance. He is simply not fit enough and never has been. That is not just “because he’s young”. If you’re in your 4th pre-season and still struggling like he was with fitness drills that’s a massive problem and something not likely to improve at the rate it need’s to.

He can be the most “talented” player on the list, which he is not, but if you don’t have the fitness levels to play at the level week in week out, you simply won’t make it. This is the main reason why he’s more likely not to make it at the level as he does have talent.

He has also not put on nearly enough size needed in order to become a quality “key defender” which is what the club drafted him to be. The only position he can play is the “James Sicily” role or at best the role Jack scrimshaw is currently playing..he’s a third tall/interceptor. He will never ever be a full back or a big centre half back.

The timing and nature of his injury in pre-season was a complete disaster as he’s in a contract year. He hasn’t been able to do any form of running which was the #1 area he needed to work on. He’s going to becoming from a long way back.

Our key/intercept backs are currently made up of Sam Frost, Jack Scrimshaw, James Sicily & Josh Weddle.. James Blanck is out with an ACL & Will McCabe will be a regular by the end of 2025. The harsh reality is, he won’t be getting a game in front of any of the above. And those supporters that think he can play as a forward- he can’t. He’s a defender or bust.

He will get a good block of games at AFL level after our bye in the final 8 rounds to try and earn another contract. Josh Weddle will get moved into a different position to fit DGB in. There’s a good chance he will receive a 1-year extension regardless how he plays as our key position stocks, especially down back are equal with north Melbourne as the worst in the AFL.

The harsh reality is, next season will be his 5th in the system. He would have played less than 35 games in his first 4 years at AFL level. Before being injured, he was still not best 22 for the 16th placed side, who’s key position depth is horrendous and still is. History suggests he need’s a miracle to make it as a quality AFL player. Hopefully he can prove history wrong.
 
VinnieB said:
That was 3 yrs ago.
Cornes is known to try a put a controversial comment/opinion out there.
And now Cornes considers him a bust.
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That’s great, but doesn’t change a single thing that I said.
 
Strapping Young Lad said:
The query wasn’t who won or who even deserved to win.

It was that it was winnable.
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Dewyyyyy said:
Essendon was winnable. Kick straight and Hawthorn win, should’ve won and were the better side on the day. Agree with that tho, Ginnivan and Moore were very good. Chol good but could barely run hence being subbed.
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