Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Gavin Excell]

Maybe not your exact criteria but plenty f examples to have similarly slow starts and still turned out to be AA.

With that said, I don't think DGB is likely to make it (as a decent AFL player, let alone AA).

Some of the 'slower' starters I can recall off the top of my head that made AA level...(Note: DGB played 28 games in his first 3 seasons)...

Dane Swan played 16 games in his first 3 seasons and was considered awful/close to delisting and was 6xAA
Jobe Watson was close to delisting (many felt he only stayed on the list cos of his dad) and he played 13 games in his first 3 seasons.
Alex Rance played 25 games and was considered an average forward with poor skills.
Not AA but Dylan Moore is Hawthorn's best current example. He was called up for his 10th career game in the final round of his 3rd season for one last go before his planned delisting. He played really well, the first good game of his career, got a lifeline and has never looked back - one of our best players.
Heaps of others tbh.

But the odds are very firmly stacked against DGB unfortunately.

Ricky Henderson went ok and had an excellent stand out year (2020?) off the back of middling sort of career.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Ricky Henderson went ok and had an excellent stand out year (2020?) off the back of middling sort of career.

Came from nowhere.
I remember that when our interest in him as a DFA was flagged by media most people were completely amazed.

He was excellent on the wing for us.

 

[boncer34]

I was responding to this comment.

By not quoting it or my response to it but instead the one where I clearly highlight and responded to the notion Hawthorn were the better team on the day?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

By not quoting it or my response to it but instead the one where I clearly highlight and responded to the notion Hawthorn were the better team on the day?

Yeah it was lazy by me.

 

[peetoo]

Came from nowhere.
I remember that when our interest in him as a DFA was flagged by media most people were completely amazed.

He was excellent on the wing for us.

I don’t think any recruitment ever was as wildly successfully as Brian Lake to us
We would do it tomorrow I dgaf where we are in the ‘rebuild cycle strategy’ or whatever hocus locus gets pedalled

 

[boncer34]

I don’t think any recruitment ever was as wildly successfully as Brian Lake to us
We would do it tomorrow I dgaf where we are in the ‘rebuild cycle strategy’ or whatever hocus locus gets pedalled

Shaun Burgoyne says hello

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Shaun Burgoyne says hello

Hale and Gibson too.

They were both pretty washed up at North.

 

[Gavin Excell]

I don’t think any recruitment ever was as wildly successfully as Brian Lake to us
We would do it tomorrow I dgaf where we are in the ‘rebuild cycle strategy’ or whatever hocus locus gets pedalled

Lake wasn't a complete unknown at Dogs. Was decent at Dogs

 

[sr36]

I was responding to this comment.

I've written one of your posts for 6 months time.

Our 5 wins for the year was more like 10. We outplayed Essendon. Should have beaten Collingwood and were level with Sydney at the start of the game. 12-14 wins next year seems likely. We're a chance of top 4.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I've written one of your posts for 6 months time.

Our 5 wins for the year was more like 10. We outplayed Essendon. Should have beaten Collingwood and were level with Sydney at the start of the game. 12-14 wins next year seems likely. We're a chance of top 4.

A+ for effort.

 

[SSSSSS]

DGB is in his 4th season not 3rd. He’s played a total of 28 games in 3 season’s and regressed, even before his injury this pre-season.

He’s not played at any level this season due to having turf toe that required surgery.

He will be back playing at VFL in the next 2-3 weeks.

Before being injured, his pre-season was average at best. He was consistently in the bottom 3-4 in running drills with the first year players, most notably in long distance. He is simply not fit enough and never has been. That is not just “because he’s young”. If you’re in your 4th pre-season and still struggling like he was with fitness drills that’s a massive problem and something not likely to improve at the rate it need’s to.

He can be the most “talented” player on the list, which he is not, but if you don’t have the fitness levels to play at the level week in week out, you simply won’t make it. This is the main reason why he’s more likely not to make it at the level as he does have talent.

He has also not put on nearly enough size needed in order to become a quality “key defender” which is what the club drafted him to be. The only position he can play is the “James Sicily” role or at best the role Jack scrimshaw is currently playing..he’s a third tall/interceptor. He will never ever be a full back or a big centre half back.

The timing and nature of his injury in pre-season was a complete disaster as he’s in a contract year. He hasn’t been able to do any form of running which was the #1 area he needed to work on. He’s going to becoming from a long way back.

Our key/intercept backs are currently made up of Sam Frost, Jack Scrimshaw, James Sicily & Josh Weddle.. James Blanck is out with an ACL & Will McCabe will be a regular by the end of 2025. The harsh reality is, he won’t be getting a game in front of any of the above. And those supporters that think he can play as a forward- he can’t. He’s a defender or bust.

He will get a good block of games at AFL level after our bye in the final 8 rounds to try and earn another contract. Josh Weddle will get moved into a different position to fit DGB in. There’s a good chance he will receive a 1-year extension regardless how he plays as our key position stocks, especially down back are equal with north Melbourne as the worst in the AFL.

The harsh reality is, next season will be his 5th in the system. He would have played less than 35 games in his first 4 years at AFL level. Before being injured, he was still not best 22 for the 16th placed side, who’s key position depth is horrendous and still is. History suggests he need’s a miracle to make it as a quality AFL player. Hopefully he can prove history wrong.

DGB has looked noticeably bigger during the preseason. Not KPD size yet but he isn't the skinny kid that was drafted 4 years ago. I think he is maybe 2 more preseasons away from being at his prime playing weight.

I haven't written him off yet but time is ticking.

 

[peetoo]

Lake wasn't a complete unknown at Dogs. Was decent at Dogs

And? Major part in 3 straight premierships and a norm smith? Only other I can think of is this guy. And he didn’t fill a clear deficiency at brisbane

 

[peetoo]

This is a very taboo topic on the Hawks board in particular and I'll 100% get shot down for saying this here, but there have been some late season wins which have killed us.

We won the final game of the 2020 season where we jumped Sydney on the ladder and we missed out on L. McDonald, selecting DGB instead.

We won a couple late in 2021 we probably shouldn't have won based on exposed form and ended up costing us Callaghan, we got Ward instead.

The argument is that no win is meaningless and it's good for morale. Yes, it's good for morale, but reality is we're years later we're still 17th and no amount of morale can fixed that.
No, we shouldn't have tanked. Yes, tanking can destroy a club and we absolutely shouldn't have done that. I'm just pointing out how missing out on the point end of talent has put us in a compromised position.

Not saying they're bad players, jury's out on DGB and Ward has been sent to the twos to work on some stuff. Still, there's not one reasonable person that would say DGB/Ward is a better combo than McDonald/Callaghan.

Having said all this, this argument would be totally redundant if not for how badly compromised the draft is. We finished 3rd bottom last year, and should have got the player that went 3rd in the draft, which was Walter. We finished 4th bottom in 2020, we should have got the player that went 4th in the draft, which was McDonald. Makes sense no?

Our pick 3 became pick 5

Wce second pick should have been ~20 became 30

What’s going wrong? It’s plain to see

 

[boncer34]

Lake wasn't a complete unknown at Dogs. Was decent at Dogs

Lake looked cooked at the Dogs by the end, they even played him forward late there from memory because he was so out of form down back.

Him being a great player isn't a surprise because you're right he was at the Dogs, it was the 2nd wind that caught everyone off guard.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Geelong won the flag. They had Selwood, Danger and Guthrie. They also had battling role-player like Atkins and O'Connor, they're the kind of jobbers that Geelong love and achieve success with. They also played Blicavs as a midfielder too at times.

Agree regarding Hobbs (and Erasmus).

Yeah, sorry to let my own biases cloud my judgement, but I had to tap out at the idea that the Newcombe and Worpel-led midfield last year was tougher to crack than the midfield of the team that went 19-3 and strolled to the premiership the year before.

 

[smish]

Our pick 3 became pick 5

Wce second pick should have been ~20 became 30

What’s going wrong? It’s plain to see

Nothing to see here!

 

[smish]

I didn't mention Geelong. So yes I'd prefer you didn't turn this into a shitfight.



I don't get the logic here. The fact these look like poor picks is ok because they were rated highly at draft time? "No one could've anticipated he wouldn't have come on as hoped"? What's the point of your recruitment and development teams then? Does Richmond picking Tambling get the same out because he was very highly rated which he was?

I'll give Ward the benefit of the doubt and say he's still a decent chance to be a good player. Although being dropped from a cellar dweller in your 3rd season is not a good sign.

But it's really hard to see how DGB is anything but a bust. 3rd year and James Blanck was being preferred to him repeatedly.

The point is if picks 6 and 7 aren't "cream or the crop" enough for you to pick up quality players it's going to be a long old rebuild.

Yes, that's what I'm saying. We took the player we rated as best available. In hindsight it's turned out they haven't been the best player available and not the best pick for our list profile. That's on us.

And yes, we at this stage don't have much elite talent on our list. I think you'll find that the further down the draft order you go, the likelihood of you acquiring elite talent gets lower.

 

[VinnieB]

That’s great, but doesn’t change a single thing that I said.

Discussion on whether DGB is up to it considering his high draft pick.
You support your player by mentioning Cornes named him as potentially the best in the draft after a couple of games.
You conveniently don’t mention Cornes, after 3 years, and a better sample period, now believes he isn’t the player expected.

You seem to make a habit of dealing in half truths.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Discussion on whether DGB is up to it considering his high draft pick.
You support your player by mentioning Cornes named him as potentially the next in the draft after a couple of games.
You conveniently don’t mention Cornes, after 3 years, and a better sample period, now believes he isn’t the player expected.

You seem to make a habit of dealing in half truths.

What part of “never shown a thing” are you struggling with?

 

[VinnieB]

What part of “never shown a thing” are you struggling with?

Do you always take Kane Cornes’ opinion seriously? I bet no other media person/football person would have made such an outlandish comment.

Point out his best games. Let’s have a laugh.

 

[SSSSSS]

Do you always take Kane Cornes’ opinion seriously? I bet no other media person/football person would have made such an outlandish comment.

Point out his best games. Let’s have a laugh.

Best game was against Carlton matched up on Curnow in 2022 (sorry thought it was last year). Kept him to 3 goals in a narrow 1 point loss which was a good effort considering their midfield had the ball on a string.

He was completely gassed in the last quarter but found it within himself to make some desperate efforts on the last line of defence.

It's really his only performance that I've seen so far that's justified his pick. If he that can be his level I would be very happy.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Did you make this up or did you copy and paste from early February?

The prediction of 14 wins will never not make me laugh.

This can't be true
No Hawks fan picked 14 wins

 

[Xtreme]

This can't be true
No Hawks fan picked 14 wins

I said we'd win the premiership with an undefeated season

 

[Gavin Excell]

I said we'd win the premiership with an undefeated season

Yes but your Xtreme
More than words

 

[Xtreme]

Yes but your Xtreme
More than words

is all you have to do to make it real
Then you wouldn't have to say that you love me
'Cause I'd already know