How big can Melbourne FC become?

[Ambrosia]

I sense an almighty premiership hangover next year.

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Doubt it winning a grand final at the MCG in their home state is big carrot.

 

[Tulip]

I sense an almighty premiership hangover next year.

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Would be pretty surprising, given we already had a massive dip after the prelim, and all the pressure that comes with it, in 2019. But maybe.

 

[donkeypunchd]

I reckon membership numbers in down years are a better indicator of true support levels than post-premiership. If that’s the case, we have about 37k hardcore supporters, that’s a rough average of the membership numbers we had in 2012-2014 when we were at the nadir.

I’m based in WA and I remember attending member functions in 2013 where less than 10 people turned up - that was the week after 148, when we played the Weagles. That year the Western Demons pregame function was half empty and they weren’t able to give away all the spare tickets to the game with Freo- which was an horrendous occasion in beautiful Autumn sunshine, where we got smashed from pillar to post. 90 odd points if memory serves right, two weeks prior Gold Coast beat us by 80+ on Mother’s Day at the MCG and the week after Hawthorn did us by 90 again.

Those were dark times and I think while we have the potential to grow, there probably aren’t enough casual supporters left in the woodwork to generate a huge bandwagon, most of those probably got on board already in 2018/2019. If we can outgrow Port Adelaide and move towards the membership numbers of the Crows I think that would be sustainable organic growth, any more than that is probably artificial.

 

[Altum Volantes]

I reckon membership numbers in down years are a better indicator of true support levels than post-premiership. If that’s the case, we have about 37k hardcore supporters, that’s a rough average of the membership numbers we had in 2012-2014 when we were at the nadir.

I’m based in WA and I remember attending member functions in 2013 where less than 10 people turned up - that was the week after 148, when we played the Weagles. That year the Western Demons pregame function was half empty and they weren’t able to give away all the spare tickets to the game with Freo- which was an horrendous occasion in beautiful Autumn sunshine, where we got smashed from pillar to post. 90 odd points if memory serves right, two weeks prior Gold Coast beat us by 80+ on Mother’s Day at the MCG and the week after Hawthorn did us by 90 again.

Those were dark times and I think while we have the potential to grow, there probably aren’t enough casual supporters left in the woodwork to generate a huge bandwagon, most of those probably got on board already in 2018/2019. If we can outgrow Port Adelaide and move towards the membership numbers of the Crows I think that would be sustainable organic growth, any more than that is probably artificial.

Good on you mate - hope you got along on Saturday. Sounds like you’ve done the hard yards. Enjoy!

On topic - you are right - the ‘hardcore’ figure is usually apparent when times are tough - Melbourne most likely have the potential to go from Small to Medium, similar to the Dogs - as opposed to someone like Richmond who went from Medium to Large.

Nobody really wants to hear it but I think the only true ‘Sleeping Giant’ out there at the moment is….sigh….Carlton…

 

[Ambrosia]

Good on you mate - hope you got along on Saturday. Sounds like you’ve done the hard yards. Enjoy!

On topic - you are right - the ‘hardcore’ figure is usually apparent when times are tough - Melbourne most likely have the potential to go from Small to Medium, similar to the Dogs - as opposed to someone like Richmond who went from Medium to Large.

Nobody really wants to hear it but I think the only true ‘Sleeping Giant’ out there at the moment is….sigh….Carlton…

You don’t see Essendon as a sleeping giant? Or more they already are a massive club?

 

[Percel]

Well up to 1964 we won 12. By 1965 the traditional big 4 had won;

Carlton - 8
Collingwood - 13
Essendon - 12
Richmond - 5

Melbourne, Collingwood, and Essendon were the most successful clubs up until our decline. Since 1965 Carlton won 8 more, Collingwood 2, Essendon 4 and Richmond 8. We had also played in 2 GF between 1965 and 2020. We were overtaken by Geelong and Hawthorn.

Undoubtedly we were one of the biggest clubs, and if you did your big 4 back then (to mid 65) it was definitely Melbourne in and Richmond out. Richmond then added 5 flags in 13 years, pretty much did a Hawks of 08-21. 13 year period, 4 flags. So by 1980 Melbourne were bumped out by Richmond. Hawthorn got moving from 71 onwards and then made themselves the next big club through the eighties. Geelong followed in the nineties with no flags but remedied that from 07-11.

1900 - 1965: Collingwood, Essendon, Melbourne, Carlton (Geelong 5th, Richmond 6th)

1966 - 1980: Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton, Richmond (Geelong 5th, Hawthorn 6th)

Theres been a pretty definitive top 6 clubs from the mid sixties onwards, with WC then getting in the mix from 88 onwards. Whilst Collingwood didn’t win a flag from 59-89, they played in a lot of GF and stayed relevant.

When did the big 4 become noted as the "Big 4",and were Melbourne part of that or something similar originally?

(Norm Smith Medal: C. Urch 3 votes)

 

[demondavey]

When did the big 4 become noted as the "Big 4",and were Melbourne part of that or something similar originally?

(Norm Smith Medal: C. Urch 3 votes)

No idea when that phrase was coined but I do know that when Urch was playing for North they were big *en 4

 

[Percel]

No idea when that phrase was coined but I do know that when Urch was playing for North they were big fu**en 4

Amen brother Davey, "Chief premiership winning fan of the 2020s"

 

[Vikingnz]

If we're talking members, my expectation would be a similar trajectory to Richmond post success - rapid growth but then very quickly reaching a cap.

 

[Kwality]

We all know how big collingwood, Essendon, carlton and richmond can be if they start winning flags.
but what about Melbourne? footy club named after the capital of Victoria surely they would have to be the biggest? maybe back in the 50s and 60s but if the dees can build on their success how big can they get in the modern day with other powerhouse clubs

The biggest problem for Melbourne is membership, with the AFL Members & MCC competing for Melbourne fans money.
We all know the AFL members kid themselves that paying the AFL not the Melbourne FOOTBALL Club means technically they are members but its 'a minimum of chips' deal that beats anything their footy club can offer.
Then there are those who prefer the Cricket club membership to the FOOTBALL CLUB.

ALL Melbourne based clubs face competition from the AFL Members & the Cricket Club, but not as obviously as Melbourne Football Club.

The asset stripping of the Bentleigh Club will be examined at some point, & its a 'one off' injection of funds, that will set the club up financially in the short term.

 

[Kwality]

You don’t see Essendon as a sleeping giant? Or more they already are a massive club?

Massive applies to your overreach .... do you know the words to Beautiful Dreamer:
Beautiful Dreamer, wake unto me,
Starlight and dewdrops are waiting for thee;
Sounds of the rude world heard in the day,
Lull'd by the moonlight have all passed away!

 

[Go the Biff]

You're right about the fading allegiances over several generations when a team is not doing well.

Take this typical example of of a Melbourne supporting family over four generations.

• Professor Charles Wardell-Harrison (born 1915) grew up in Camberwell, attended Scotch College and proudly served in the War, just like Ron Barassi Senior and Bluey Truscott. Like his father and grandfather before him, he was a proud Demon. He was so committed that he even paid to join the football club, despite also being an MCC member. He was so proud of the three-peat in 1939-41, achieved against the odds during wartime, and knows that the club will forever be imbued with the selfless fighting spirit of those years.
• His son, Dr Edward Wardell-Harrison (born 1946) inherited his father's Demon support and knew nothing but success in his formative years. He fondly recalls watching the '64 Grand Final with his dad in the old Grey Smith Stand at the MCG.
• His wife, the former Miss Felicity Kennington-Smyth (born 1948) grew up in Malvern and was educated at Lauriston. She jumped on the Dees bandwagon in the '50s. She loved Ron Barassi and, not being too rusted-on, followed him to Carlton in 1965. The sacking of Norm Smith appalled her sense of decency, and only served to vindicate her decision to switch from the Dees.
• After they were married in 1971 she enjoyed great success with Carlton, and their two daughters Harriet (born 1978) and Charlotte (born 1980) also supported the Blues. She thought about maybe, just maybe, switching back to Melbourne when Barassi became coach in 1981, but a Demons wooden spoon and another Carlton flag meant that the idea came to naught. They don't watch as many football games as their parents' generation anyway, as they spend a lot of weekends at Mount Buller.
• Their son, Angus Wardell-Harrison (born 1976) grew up in Melbourne's lean years. He attended primary school in the 1980s and jumped on the Hawthorn bandwagon, along with half his class mates. He didn't care about abandoning four generations of Demon support in his family, as the team was so uninspiring. And anyway, his parents had also abandoned four generations of family tradition by sending him to Melbourne Grammar rather then Scotch.
• Young Angus grew up in Hawthorn East and during his formative years he'd spend every Summer at their beach house in Portsea. The kids down there who were Hawks and Blues fans would spend the whole Summer boasting about the premiership they'd just won, and/or the latest interstate star player they'd just recruited. The dwindling number of Melbourne supporters would either be teased for their club allegiance, or pretend they didn't really follow football.
• Professor Charles Wardell-Harrison passed away aged 82 in 1997. His final act as a Melbourne supporter was to defiantly vote against the merger with Hawthorn in 1996. He couldn't believe that it had come to this. It would never have happened if the club still had people of the calibre of Ron Senior and Bluey, he thought wistfully.
• The proposed merger caused strong feelings in the Wardell-Harrison family. Angus revived his Hawthorn membership (having let it lapse in 1993) and vowed to continue his Hawks faith, inspired by the fighting words of Don Scott and Dermott Brereton. In contrast, he chides his father's team for its defeatist approach. "At least we still have people in our club who remember what it's like to win", he would say to his dad in the aftermath. Sadly, his father knew he was right.
• "You voted to merge!" he would say to his father and (somewhat more obnoxiously) to Demons supporters at Hawthorn-Melbourne games for years to come. In round 10, 2013, on a cold and bleak Sunday afternoon, Hawthorn would defeat Melbourne by 95 points at the MCG. The Hawks sat first on the latter and the Demons 17th, in Mark Neeld's second last game as coach. "You voted to merge, you voted to merge!" Angus would continue to taunt Dees supporters, before, during after the game. But for the first time ever, no one rose to his bait - the Dees fans' spirits were just too crushed. For the first time in his life, Angus (being the humble and sensitive Hawthorn supporter that he is) finally thinks to himself that perhaps he should not be so mean-spirited towards supporters of other clubs whose lives have been less privileged than his.
• Dr Edward Wardell-Harrison also voted against the merger in 1996 (by then aged 50), but was despondent that the club board and a majority of members voted in favour. He's seen his own children lost to his club and couldn't see how it would grow future generations of supporters. Upon his retirement in 2009 he makes a substantial donation to the "Debt Demolition" campaign and he has faith that Jim Stynes can be the leader they've been waiting for to finally rebuild the club. But just like everything since 1964, his hopes are destined to be dashed.
• Now the children of Angus, the third generation of descendants of Professor Charles Wardell-Harrison, are in their formative years. The first two, Oscar (b.2008) and Amelia (b.2011), were born during the Clarkson dynasty at Hawthorn and their first football memory was the three-peat, so they're also Hawks supporters. But his youngest one, Bailey Wardell-Harrison (b.2015) started primary school this year and like a lot of impressionable class mates, has jumped on the Demon bandwagon. His ageing grandfather, Edward Wardell-Harrison (now aged 75), has rediscovered his passion for the Dees and been in his ear all season urging him to be a Melbourne supporter. For his fifth birthday in October 2020, his grandpa gave him a Demons scarf. He didn't like it at first but he's now been wearing it every week since the Dees went to the top of the ladder after round 7. His confidence is boosted when he walks down his street in Armadale to go to the playground (when it's legal do so so, of course) and he sees that some of the neighbours have adorned their houses in blue and red during the month of September, having not previously been known to be Melbourne supporters.
• After the Grand Final, young Bailey Wardell-Harrison now proudly supports the Red and the Blue. Melbourne is the team to beat, the Hawks are in a rebuilding phase and he and his little friends all want to feel like winners. As soon as the lockdown ends he'll be proudly wearing his Demons scarf and showing off to his class mates at the Geelong Grammar primary school campus in Toorak. He thinks he might even be able to turn his siblings into Melbourne supporters if the Dees keep winning. His judgmental grandmother says the sacking of Clarkson by Hawthorn reminded her of Norm Smith in 1965 and she doesn't think the Hawks are a 'good club' anymore. His father still boasts that Hawthorn have won 11 flags in his lifetime, but this argument has suddenly become very unconvincing. His weak-willed brother says Melbourne is now his 'second team', and his sister thinks that red and blue is a lot prettier than brown and yellow.

Be it fact or fiction, under appreciated post & a good read.

 

[TP86]

Hawthorn is proof that even winning three in a row doesn't allow you to stay at the top table (Friday nights, Saturday nights, free to air) once you stop winning. The Dees could win 10 flags in a row, and then if they didn't win the 11th, they'd be back playing mainly on Sunday afternoons the season after. I suspect they'll get an increased number of Friday and/or Saturday nights but it'll be through gritted teeth. They're a great team to watch for footy purists but they're not "a draw" in any sense of the word. If Essendon blow their nose it'll be a bigger deal than the Dees going back to back as far as the TV networks are concerned.

With that said I'm not sure winning to force the media's hand will be an issue. This Demons team may have their list profile set to continue winning but I've never seen a team more primed for a premiership hangover. 2019 is proof they can inexplicably drop off and lose games they shouldn't. And I've never seen a team so happy with themselves after winning a flag - and rightfully so. That is not a criticism of their achievement in 2021. However it is a terrible sign for what's coming in 2022.

They're a couple of injuries away from missing the 8 next season.

 

[willydave]

Will never be a big club on the level of Pies, Tigers or Bombers but can cement themselves as a strong mid-tier club over the next few years creating a bit of a gap over Saints and Dogs.

I’d rather us be known as a successful club, than a big club.

 

[willydave]

They're a couple of injuries away from missing the 8 next season.

You are aware that ‘a couple’ means two right?

 

[HTT]

Is it possible the Dees have been kind of capped in size in the past by being very much an upper class club, which is only a small portion of society, while clubs like Richmond and Collingwood have appealed to the working class masses?

 

[CarnTheScray]

Hawthorn is proof that even winning three in a row doesn't allow you to stay at the top table (Friday nights, Saturday nights, free to air) once you stop winning. The Dees could win 10 flags in a row, and then if they didn't win the 11th, they'd be back playing mainly on Sunday afternoons the season after. I suspect they'll get an increased number of Friday and/or Saturday nights but it'll be through gritted teeth. They're a great team to watch for footy purists but they're not "a draw" in any sense of the word. If Essendon blow their nose it'll be a bigger deal than the Dees going back to back as far as the TV networks are concerned.

With that said I'm not sure winning to force the media's hand will be an issue. This Demons team may have their list profile set to continue winning but I've never seen a team more primed for a premiership hangover. 2019 is proof they can inexplicably drop off and lose games they shouldn't. And I've never seen a team so happy with themselves after winning a flag - and rightfully so. That is not a criticism of their achievement in 2021. However it is a terrible sign for what's coming in 2022.

They're a couple of injuries away from missing the 8 next season.

Then again if they won the next 10 flags they'd probably have a bigger supporter base than Essendon.

 

[gopies1981]

Two things need to happen in my opinion for the Dees to massively increase their support base and 1 thing it has going for it’s brand. Melbourne the name automatically is the most powerful brand name in Victoria. If they can say win another 2 premierships in 5 years they will most certainly jump from a national following of 290,000 to a National following of 400,000 supporters and 70-75,000 members. They also must bring the Demon logo for the younger generation. The MFC will not grab the attention of young kids who want to follow a footy team especially if they’re parents are not really into footy. Saturday’s premiership will already make them leap from st.kilda Ave they already have more supporters then the Roos and bulldogs.

the Dees may get to the level of support of a hawthorn and Geelong but are still too far back of the Carltons, Collingwood’s, Essendon’s and Richmond’s of the afl.A premiership win the either Collingwood, Essendon and carlton will easily see them have over 100,000 members in this day and age.

the Dees will require 20-30 years of success to join the big 4! But with crowds back next year expect Melbourne to play in front of 80,000 plus crowds v Richmond and Collingwood and 70,000 plus crowds v carlton and Essendon

 

[maxiboy238]

when you look at it
-Richmond have a won three in 4 years should be able to maintain a generation of fans
-Hawthorn have one a flag in every decade since the 60s so they will maintain a generation of fans
- Geelong should be able to maintain a generation of fans with their flags and strong consistency
- Collingwood have won three since 1958 got to give credit to be able to maintain their support base.
- carlton just about irreverent for 20 years not sure how they can continue to maintain their fans.
- Essendon average for 20 years not sure how they can continue to maintain their fans

so if Melbourne can get on a good run like win another premiership or two they can certainany build and maintain win their fans

As they say things come and go in cycles the Victorian powerhouses can’t be there forever since we have expanded in a national comp. If carlton and Essendon In particular continue to be mediocre for another 10 years how can they maintain their status. On the hand Melbourne have the opportunity to regain theirs

 

[gopies1981]

when you look at it
-Richmond have a won three in 4 years should be able to maintain a generation of fans
-Hawthorn have one a flag in every decade since the 60s so they will maintain a generation of fans
- Geelong should be able to maintain a generation of fans with their flags and strong consistency
- Collingwood have won three since 1958 got to give credit to be able to maintain their support base.
- carlton just about irreverent for 20 years not sure how they can continue to maintain their fans.
- Essendon average for 20 years not sure how they can continue to maintain their fans

so if Melbourne can get on a good run like win another premiership or two they can certainany build and maintain win their fans

As they say things come and go in cycles the Victorian powerhouses can’t be there forever since we have expanded in a national comp. If carlton and Essendon In particular continue to be mediocre for another 10 years how can they maintain their status. On the hand Melbourne have the opportunity to regain theirs

collingwood a little different tho apart from the period from 1995 to 2001 Collingwood have been regular finalists and have been in grand finals in 1964, 1966, 1970, 1977 draw, 1977 replay, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2002, 2003, 2010 draw, 2010 replay, 2011 and 2018!

the only decade where Collingwood never made a grand final was in the 1940’s.

Collingwood have also won more matches then any other club, been in more grand finals and played in the most finals series then any other club (85 out of 125 years)

 

[LeverPuller]

The biggest problem for Melbourne is membership, with the AFL Members & MCC competing for Melbourne fans money.
We all know the AFL members kid themselves that paying the AFL not the Melbourne FOOTBALL Club means technically they are members but its 'a minimum of chips' deal that beats anything their footy club can offer.
Then there are those who prefer the Cricket club membership to the FOOTBALL CLUB.

ALL Melbourne based clubs face competition from the AFL Members & the Cricket Club, but not as obviously as Melbourne Football Club.

The asset stripping of the Bentleigh Club will be examined at some point, & its a 'one off' injection of funds, that will set the club up financially in the short term.

The club offers an MCC/MFC option for about $90 that gets those who purchase it a special MCC/MFC scarf and entry to games at Marvel. Far less of an issue for us than it used to be.

As for the Bentleigh Club, owners act in their own interests to build financial wealth. More at 11.

 

[Brickwall]

here we go again , reactive world we live in .... one hit wonders thats about it move on

 

[wedgetail]

I swear if you add up all the claimed supporters of the Melbourne clubs (and the combined growth potential) there must be about 15 million people living in Victoria.

 

[dave10]

I swear if you add up all the claimed supporters of the Melbourne clubs (and the combined growth potential) there must be about 15 million people living in Victoria.

I think that’s a bit simplistic. The Victorian clubs have big followings outside Victoria. As an example, this was seen earlier this year with Essendon in Tasmania and WA. On both occasions there were hoards of red & black in the stands, and that’s just those that attended those particular matches. In Launceston, there would’ve been 10,000 Essendon supporters in the stadium. Ditto at the Dreamtime game. The big Victorian clubs in particular have huge support around Australia, and indeed the world. That’s where exponential membership growth possibly actually lies.

 

[Kwality]

I think that’s a bit simplistic. The Victorian clubs have big followings outside Victoria. As an example, this was seen earlier this year with Essendon in Tasmania and WA. On both occasions there were hoards of red & black in the stands, and that’s just those that attended those particular matches. In Launceston, there would’ve been 10,000 Essendon supporters in the stadium. Ditto at the Dreamtime game. The big Victorian clubs in particular have huge support around Australia, and indeed the world. That’s where exponential membership growth possibly actually lies.

exponential, tomorrow the world ...