Toast How can this Hawthorn side be stopped?

[BigVic]

From 0-5 to knocking the door on a finals berth at the end of July. How far do you think they can go?

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

How far? they are exactly where you want to be heading into August/September they like the Bulldogs could win it from 7-8th.

 

[Jake98]

Same problem as Sydney, no good key forwards.

The Bulldogs are the best team at the moment.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

One of the few finals aspirants I'd be supremely confident against.

 

[Blackhawk42]

One of the few finals aspirants I'd be supremely confident against.

Geelong are the one team I wouldn't want to come up against if we make it.

Mature bodies with finals experience.

However, the confidence of this group to run all day and take the game on might be a factor on a clear day at the MCG.

Regardless, a lot still needs to go right for us to make it.

Need to knock off GWS and/or Carlton and hope for some teams above us to lose an extra game or two.

 

[Sean_09]

As long as we're not playing at Tassie? We should be right

 

[Hawksboy72]

No injuries.

On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Zevon]

Been genuinely impressed with them for weeks now. If they make the 8 would they be getting there a year early though?? Feels like a potential finals thumping at the hands of a more experienced side could do them more harm than good.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

By ending the home and away season after round 24

 

[hk89]

We'll know more about how well Hawthorn would stand up in finals after we play Carlton and GWS. Lots of our wins have come against bottom 8 sides or top 8 sides who were sliding at the time we played them. Got Dogs, Lions and Giants at the right time, and played Freo in tassie, which helped. Still excited to see the progress, but watching Geelong dismantle us at the Cattery tempers my enthusiasm somewhat. Lid will not come off until we beat some in-form top 8 sides away from Tassie.

 

[Hawker_85]

One of the few finals aspirants I'd be supremely confident against.

Valid.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Same problem as Sydney, no good key forwards.

The Bulldogs are the best team at the moment.

Chol - 17 disposals 2 goals 2 goal assists 8 score inv 8 marks (2 contested) v Crows. Has kicked almost 30 goals this year, also the number one pressure key forward and top 3 general out of all forwards.

Dear is a serious talent and if he is taken earlier he’d be talked up more, same levels of Cadman, Caddy etc

Gunston experience, Scaife a talented key forward at BH

This doesn’t include a group of probably the best small forwards in the league (Moore, MacDonald, Ginnivan, Watson, Breust).

 

[Dewyyyyy]

We'll know more about how well Hawthorn would stand up in finals after we play Carlton and GWS. Lots of our wins have come against bottom 8 sides or top 8 sides who were sliding at the time we played them. Got Dogs, Lions and Giants at the right time, and played Freo in tassie, which helped. Still excited to see the progress, but watching Geelong dismantle us at the Cattery tempers my enthusiasm somewhat. Lid will not come off until we beat some in-form top 8 sides away from Tassie.

Dogs were up and down but exploded post that game, Lions were in form before and after and Hawthorn beat them in the middle of it, beat GWS who just beat Geelong, beating sides around them like Collingwood, top side in Freo in Tassie.

Hawthorn are a contender, Dogs of 16.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Not sure what Dewyyyyy is laughing at.

Geelong are the one team I wouldn't want to come up against if we make it.

Mature bodies with finals experience.

However, the confidence of this group to run all day and take the game on might be a factor on a clear day at the MCG.

Regardless, a lot still needs to go right for us to make it.

Need to knock off GWS and/or Carlton and hope for some teams above us to lose an extra game or two.

We seem to play the G far better than at home atm. Game plan far more suited to the wide open expanses.

Carlton are ripe for the picking. Think you'll need 3 wins minimum, maybe all 4.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Not sure what Dewyyyyy is laughing at.


We seem to play the G far better than at home atm. Game plan far more suited to the wide open expanses.

Carlton are ripe for the picking. Think you'll need 3 wins minimum, maybe all 4.

I found it funny so I laugh

But I see it interestingly. Geelong have beaten Hawthorn twice this year, one before the form rise and the second being after the bye, small break from WA after playing traffic cones on an off day in Geelong.

If it’s a final at the MCG, the main components that beat Hawthorn the second time (hardness at the contest and general control/weight of numbers) becomes harder to sustain, whereas the strength of Hawthorn is more prominent, running, linking up with high quality hands and foot skills + pressure.

The finals bye would be key for the Hawks who play a high octane brand.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

3 months of really good footy with a smashing from Geelong a couple of weeks ago.

We're a young side that can be wasteful in front of goals. Even if we get there, finals is a whole different game and I think we've only got about 7 players that have played in a final.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Need to win one of the next 2 to have any realistic chance.

 

[matey]

If we sneak in would love to play the Cats first up …… always been our bunnies come finals.

 

[hk89]

Dogs were up and down but exploded post that game, Lions were in form before and after and Hawthorn beat them in the middle of it, beat GWS who just beat Geelong, beating sides around them like Collingwood, top side in Freo in Tassie.

Hawthorn are a contender, Dogs of 16.

Well when dogs lost to us, that had them 3 wins and 5 losses, and their 3 wins were against Saints, Eagles and GC, all of whom are currently bottom 6, so I think it is fair to say Dogs were in a bad place when we beat them. Yes, they certainly rebounded since then.

Yes, GWS had beaten the cats down in Geelong just before we beat them, but after losing to us, that Geelong game was their only win from their last 5 games. Geelong were also going very poorly at that point, with the GWS loss being their 4th in a row, including losing to Port down in Geelong. So GWS definitely not travelling well when we got them compared to now.

After the Lions played us, they had only won 4 of their 11 games up to that point.

Freo probably our best win from a from a form point of view, but I stand by my statement that our wins against the current top 8 have tended to be against out-of-form sides. Obviously they've all hit some form at the moment, but until we get a win against GWS, I'm not 100% convinced we have the game to compete with the top teams when they are firing. I'll start to get very excited if we can get a win against GWS, especially with Carlton looking shaky (mostly injury driven). We beat those two, top 4 isn't completely out of the question, but would need to handle the pressure a lot better than we did against Geelong to even make finals from here. Good signs at the moment, but the next two weeks were always going to be the most critical of our run home. Having top 8 in hand by the final round would be great, as I can see Clarko pulling off an upset with his improved roos outfit.

 

[hk89]

Think you'll need 3 wins minimum, maybe all 4.

As crazy as the season has been, we'd be incredibly unlucky to miss out with 14 wins, so I think we can still afford to lose another game. 4 wins and we might even be finishing top 4 if we get some big percentage boosters in those wins (probably more likely to miss top 4 on percentage if we do go 4/4 from here though.

In fact it doesn't take much luck to have us still make it with only 2 more wins. Teams around us have tougher runs than us, including games against each other. If we don't get smashed, and get decent wins in the two games we do win, we could easily finish above a team like Port on %. Definitely more reliant on other results, but not a hail mary either, but yes, most likely 3 wins will be needed.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Well when dogs lost to us, that had them 3 wins and 5 losses, and their 3 wins were against Saints, Eagles and GC, all of whom are currently bottom 6, so I think it is fair to say Dogs were in a bad place when we beat them. Yes, they certainly rebounded since then.

Yes, GWS had beaten the cats down in Geelong just before we beat them, but after losing to us, that Geelong game was their only win from their last 5 games. Geelong were also going very poorly at that point, with the GWS loss being their 4th in a row, including losing to Port down in Geelong. So GWS definitely not travelling well when we got them compared to now.

After the Lions played us, they had only won 4 of their 11 games up to that point.

Freo probably our best win from a from a form point of view, but I stand by my statement that our wins against the current top 8 have tended to be against out-of-form sides. Obviously they've all hit some form at the moment, but until we get a win against GWS, I'm not 100% convinced we have the game to compete with the top teams when they are firing. I'll start to get very excited if we can get a win against GWS, especially with Carlton looking shaky (mostly injury driven). We beat those two, top 4 isn't completely out of the question, but would need to handle the pressure a lot better than we did against Geelong to even make finals from here. Good signs at the moment, but the next two weeks were always going to be the most critical of our run home. Having top 8 in hand by the final round would be great, as I can see Clarko pulling off an upset with his improved roos outfit.

Dogs - smashings against the Suns, Eagles (after a promising start), close Geelong loss, close ish Fremantle loss and a Saints smashing into the game they lost against Hawthorn, not out of form but not in form. Went rampant after that.

Giants - Form was up and down, but a super talented side and beat Geelong in Geelong which is always hard, probably the biggest case of out of form, but not wildly bad.

Lions - Fagan said it himself, they were flying just before and after this game and it was the blip. (2 wins 1 draw before the game, 8 straight after). They were in form.

Freo - 5-1-1 before, 2-0 after the game. In form.

Collingwood - Out of form and done. But a belting against a side above on the ladder.

GWS and Carlton games are massive to see how close or how dangerous Hawthorn can be, and the difference between going in with confidence against good sides v poor, and whether it’s a sneak in job or charging for top 4.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

One of the few finals aspirants I'd be supremely confident against.

So we wouldn't have learnt any lessons from the matches we have played this year? Sicily didn't play last time neither did Ginnivan or Dear. All 3 are crucial to how we play and yes I'm including Dear in that. The games since yours we have bashed all 3 midfields up including 1 of the best in the comp in Freo. That was 1 of the lessons we took out of the GMHBA game. Be more physical. If your mob rocks up with the same mindset it will be happen again you haven't watched us since.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Not sure what Dewyyyyy is laughing at.


We seem to play the G far better than at home atm. Game plan far more suited to the wide open expanses.

Carlton are ripe for the picking. Think you'll need 3 wins minimum, maybe all 4.

15 wins might see us make it?, leg in the air we make it. 3 more definitely gets us there. Giants and Power have very tough draws. We only need to replace 1 of those teams.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

15 wins might see us make it?, leg in the air we make it. 3 more definitely gets us there. Giants and Power have very tough draws. We only need to replace 1 of those teams.

I said likely 3... But possibly all 4.



That's with 3 wins to Hawks.

relevant games, going for clear favourites or in doubt the home team:

R21:

DOGS v dees
CATS v crows
CARL v coll
PORT v syd
GIANTS v haw
FREO v ess
BL v st.k

R22:

SYD v coll
BL v giants
FREO v cats
dees v PORT
HAW v carl
crows v DOGS

R23:

ess v SYD
GIANTS v freo
coll v BL
PORT v crows
saints v CATS
DOGS v nm
HAW v rich
eagles v CARL

R24:

BL v ess
CARL v stk
CATS v eagles
HAW v nm
DOGS v giants
SYD v crows
FREO v port

and yes some results could go other directions which see 3 wins be enough, as I said was likely. I also said you MAY need 4 wins, and this shows without needing to resort to long shot upsets that you can win 3/4 and miss out.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I said likely 3... But possibly all 4.

View attachment 2062059

That's with 3 wins to Hawks.

relevant games, going for clear favourites or in doubt the home team:

R21:

DOGS v dees
CATS v crows
CARL v coll
PORT v syd
GIANTS v haw
FREO v ess
BL v st.k

R22:

SYD v coll
BL v giants
FREO v cats
dees v PORT
HAW v carl
crows v DOGS

R23:

ess v SYD
GIANTS v freo
coll v BL
PORT v crows
saints v CATS
DOGS v nm
HAW v rich
eagles v CARL

R24:

BL v ess
CARL v stk
CATS v eagles
HAW v nm
DOGS v giants
SYD v crows
FREO v port

and yes some results could go other directions which see 3 wins be enough, as I said was likely. I also said you MAY need 4 wins, and this shows without needing to resort to long shot upsets that you can win 3/4 and miss out.

There’s a lot of 50/50s you have given to teams around Hawthorn, same for no upsets which will happen with some of the inconsistent sides (Port, Melb etc).

Hawthorn win a minimum of 13, and that’s enough to squeeze in if it goes right. Win 1 against GWS (8 point game) or Carlton, and they will make it. This doesn’t include % v North and Richmond.