News Impact of COVID-19 on season 2020 and beyond

sumavich

Premiership Player
Aug 29, 2006
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Only 26 new cases today in WA, hoping there's no funny business with the numbers and testing because we continue to have consistent numbers and no exponetial growth

26/3 - 26
25/3 - 30
24/3 - 35
23/3 - 20
22/3 - 30
21/3 -26
It’s strange, or we are doing what we are supposed to be. The exponential has not happened.......yet
 

Righteo

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Only 26 new cases today in WA, hoping there's no funny business with the numbers and testing because we continue to have consistent numbers and no exponetial growth

26/3 - 26
25/3 - 30
24/3 - 35
23/3 - 20
22/3 - 30
21/3 -26
We're in a strong position, McGowan, Cook and co have been very sound in their efforts so far. I'm no Labor fanboi but credit where it's due. At the end of the day, for all the bitching about what the government is and isn't doing, this rests in our hands. If 80% of the population can adhere to the social distancing guidlines then we can get this under control in 3ish months. Anything less than that and it will drag on and on and on.
 

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Taylor

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Jul 16, 2009
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I think it's been well handled in WA. If there is community transmission I don't think we will know about it until unexplained pneumonia begins presenting at hospital to trigger the test for them, but at that point the 5-20% of people presenting to hospital mean we have 20x to 5x as many outside spreading it non tracked and not traced.

All in the ten days it would have taken for that 5% of people to present at hospital.
 

tants

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 30, 2009
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False dawn. With a dearth of general testing, it is still only "at risk" people get tested and most of them have stopped arriving here with the flight closures over the last few weeks. It'll kick off as the general population starts to feel the impact from the virus. IMO, it'll be a couple of weeks before we have really had any impact.
 

Snuffaluphagus

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Sep 10, 2015
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False dawn. With a dearth of general testing, it is still only "at risk" people get tested and most of them have stopped arriving here with the flight closures over the last few weeks. It'll kick off as the general population starts to feel the impact from the virus. IMO, it'll be a couple of weeks before we have really had any impact.
I'm more the glass half-full type. The numbers are good because we tested well, early (we are 3rd in per capita testing). So our COVID are a more accurate reflection compared to when other counties have reported similar numbers. We therefore instigated measures earlier than everyone given the infection rate AND we have the advantage of low population density so the virus spreads slower.

A shut-down now could be perfect to get on top of it, and provide the economy some confidence as business get a re-open date (so long as everything goes to plan). WA and SA in particular could get a local economy back in full swing in a couple of months.

This is best case scenario but no one really knows what's around the corner and my justifications seem logical so I'm going to run with it =)
 

Fred Ziffel

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Apr 26, 2011
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We're in a strong position, McGowan, Cook and co have been very sound in their efforts so far. I'm no Labor fanboi but credit where it's due. At the end of the day, for all the bitching about what the government is and isn't doing, this rests in our hands. If 80% of the population can adhere to the social distancing guidlines then we can get this under control in 3ish months. Anything less than that and it will drag on and on and on.
Why aren’t they providing the numbers of full recoveries and the recovering cases ?
 

tants

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 30, 2009
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I'm more the glass half-full type. The numbers are good because we tested well, early (we are 3rd in per capita testing). So our COVID are a more accurate reflection compared to when other counties have reported similar numbers. We therefore instigated measures earlier than everyone given the infection rate AND we have the advantage of low population density so the virus spreads slower.

A shut-down now could be perfect to get on top of it, and provide the economy some confidence as business get a re-open date (so long as everything goes to plan). WA and SA in particular could get a local economy back in full swing in a couple of months.

This is best case scenario but no one really knows what's around the corner and my justifications seem logical so I'm going to run with it =)
I agree we are slightly better placed than other states and I hope you're right that we're around the peak of new infections.
 

Square Peg

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Jul 20, 2014
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Yeah we aren't getting the peak of this for many weeks yet. Despite the opinion of the flat earthers that want to smash the economy even further, the current measures are working to prolong the onset of the peak. Months of economic pain ahead to save the lives of mostly multimorbid 75+ year old men.
 

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Inveigh Slang

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Dec 14, 2015
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Yeah we aren't getting the peak of this for many weeks yet. Despite the opinion of the flat earthers that want to smash the economy even further, the current measures are working to prolong the onset of the peak. Months of economic pain ahead to save the lives of mostly multimorbid 75+ year old men.
Top post. Would read again
 

TheMcManusNose

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Apr 21, 2014
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Yeah we aren't getting the peak of this for many weeks yet. Despite the opinion of the flat earthers that want to smash the economy even further, the current measures are working to prolong the onset of the peak. Months of economic pain ahead to save the lives of mostly multimorbid 75+ year old men.
Give it a rest.

Quite correctly IMO, society seems to have decided there is a point at which the utilitarian calculation breaks down and we prioritise not letting people die. The death curve will skew old, but it won't just be old people.

As I said before, I'm yet to see any really decent cost benefit analysis that includes the cost of letting our health system completely collapse at the outset. I am not really sure what effect that would have on society but i am fairly certain it would not be pretty. There are a few countries finding out right now that they didn't go hard enough early enough, hopefully we have.
 

Square Peg

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Jul 20, 2014
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Give it a rest.

Quite correctly IMO, society seems to have decided there is a point at which the utilitarian calculation breaks down and we prioritise not letting people die. The death curve will skew old, but it won't just be old people.

As I said before, I'm yet to see any really decent cost benefit analysis that includes the cost of letting our health system completely collapse at the outset. I am not really sure what effect that would have on society but i am fairly certain it would not be pretty. There are a few countries finding out right now that they didn't go hard enough early enough, hopefully we have.
Give it a rest? I thought it was a discussion forum.
Of course allowing a rapid peak would be ugly. So are long dole queues, single mums living in cars cause they can't pay rent, small business owners suicide etc. Funny thing is the highly paid medical advisors and front line clinicians and bureaucracy are still getting paid regardless of how much pain their advice inflicts on those that can least afford it.
Henry ergas wrote a great article today, I would post it but it's behind a paywall. All I am doing is posting an alternate view for discussion, and correcting factual errors if I know them to be untrue
 

Kapow!!!

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Sep 29, 2003
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We're in a strong position, McGowan, Cook and co have been very sound in their efforts so far. I'm no Labor fanboi but credit where it's due. At the end of the day, for all the bitching about what the government is and isn't doing, this rests in our hands. If 80% of the population can adhere to the social distancing guidlines then we can get this under control in 3ish months. Anything less than that and it will drag on and on and on.
Heh, we have a Labor government too and we were some of the last shut borders, last to act, only have kids at home as of next Monday because of Union action and we're voting in bloody council elections tomorrow. WA have done very well, QLD is f***ed.
 

Lach72

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Sep 30, 2005
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Give it a rest? I thought it was a discussion forum.
Of course allowing a rapid peak would be ugly. So are long dole queues, single mums living in cars cause they can't pay rent, small business owners suicide etc. Funny thing is the highly paid medical advisors and front line clinicians and bureaucracy are still getting paid regardless of how much pain their advice inflicts on those that can least afford it.
Henry ergas wrote a great article today, I would post it but it's behind a paywall. All I am doing is posting an alternate view for discussion, and correcting factual errors if I know them to be untrue
Your parents/grandparents first...and deaths are rising in under 60's overseas.

Every person matters.

The front line clinicians, advisors and bureaucrats are the ones saving lives...and getting sick themselves...why would't they get paid?
 

Johnny Dalmas

Club Legend
Oct 16, 2015
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...
Funny thing is the highly paid medical advisors and front line clinicians and bureaucracy are still getting paid regardless of how much pain their advice inflicts on those that can least afford it.
...
Ok. So If you end up needing medical attention, will you remember to refuse it in the grounds that the front line staff consulting to you are obviously just profiteering?
 

Square Peg

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Jul 20, 2014
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Ok. So If you end up needing medical attention, will you remember to refuse it in the grounds that the front line staff consulting to you are obviously just profiteering?
Don't be silly I didn't say profiteering. I was merely making the point that there are probably even unconscious conflicts that the various well paid medical advisors have: they won't lose their livelihoods regardless of how many others they ask to sacrifice their livelihoods with their advice
 

raffrox

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Sep 4, 2004
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I think for me it's the idea that we have different ideas of the 'cost' involved.

The costs I see are also related to the trauma involved in the decisions made. Exposure to trauma is something that has a real impact on peoples mental health, quality of life and also has a very real financial impact. Trauma can also be very much inter-generational as seen in Vietnam veterans families and in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community for starters.

So the path we walk is to find a balance in the situation. What kind of world will we have when we get to the other side of this?

If we make decisions where the health system is under more stress, more older and vulnerable people die and more severe ethical and moral situations eventuate (deciding who gets a ventilator, staff at aged care facilities just walking out and leaving people to die, sheer impact of death of a loved one, living for a few days with the body of a loved one because no one will come remove the body) there are real trauma-related costs to this. People will wear this stuff for the rest of their lives and for those that are left will have real consequences. This includes real financial consequences ongoing as well.

Likewise the shutdown measures are shattering peoples lives. Financial stress, loss of job & identity, relationship issues, domestic violence, suicides. The list goes on and on. These will also have trauma-related consequences. Children growing up in these households will carry the trauma on to their kids. The effects of this will be felt for generations. The financial consequences are clear of course as well.

It's a contradiction and an impossibility but we need to minimise the loss of human life, the economic/real world consequences and the associated (large-scale World War-level) trauma all at the same time.

To me it looks like ScoMo is trying to walk a fine line here. I dislike the guy immensely but it s a tough job and in doing this (I think Square Peg you said this before) he's making no one happy with his actions.

I've go no idea if we are on the right track. I am doing ok so I might say, save more lives!! People who have lost their job and are in the depths of it might think save my life!!

Man, just a tough situation with no clear answers.
 
Last edited:

Dale147

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Apr 14, 2018
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THE BIG 10
AFL CONSIDERS OPENING THE FINALS FLOODGATES
JAY CLARK

The AFL will consider expanding this year’s finals series to 10 teams to help deliver an extra week of highstakes action at the end of the season. The league has been urged to consider all options in this year’s fixture, including a wild-card weekend in the pre-finals bye weekend to create another round of eliminators. The prospect of a best-ofthree grand final series has also been raised in recent weeks as an extra money spinner but is less likely because of the shortened season. While it is unclear if crowds will be allowed to attend matches on the back of the coronavirus crisis, the extra finals matches would be certain to draw big television audiences if the game resumes this year. The league is in the midst of securing a loan of about $500 million to help save the game after it decided on Sunday to postpone the 2020 season because of COVID-19 . AFL chiefs hope they can complete a 17-round season, with possibly an extra week of finals to generate revenue. Under the wild-card weekend scenario, the seventh and 10th-placed teams, as well as the eighth and ninth-placed sides, could face off to secure the last two finals spots. On last year’s ladder, it would have pitted the Western Bulldogs (seventh) against Port Adelaide (10th), and Essendon (eighth) against Hawthorn (ninth) in the extra cutthroat matches. Officials including Sydney Swans chief executive Tom Harley have previously backed a best-of-three grand final series to make the premiership decider more fair for non-Victorian teams. But the concept would likely add an extra two weeks to an already shortened season and therefore may not be practical this year. Under the best-case scenario, the AFL would try to squeeze in the remaining 16 regular-season rounds plus finals, preferably, before the Twenty20 Cricket World Cup begins in mid-October . It means clubs could face more five-day breaks. The AFL’s decision to reduce the quarter length to 16 minutes is a significant factor in helping the players being able to recover more quickly. Many players said they pulled up much better after the first round because of the shortened game time. It means there is greater scope to play games off shorter breaks once the season resumes.
 

Square Peg

Premiership Player
Jul 20, 2014
3,708
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Fremantle WA
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I think for me it's the idea that we have different ideas of the 'cost' involved.

The costs I see are also related to the trauma involved in the decisions made. Exposure to trauma is something that has a real impact on peoples mental health, quality of life and also has a very real financial impact. Trauma can also be very much inter-generational as seen in Vietnam veterans families and in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community for starters.

So the path we walk is to find a balance in the situation. What kind of world will we have when we get to the other side of this?

If we make decisions where the health system is under more stress, more older and vulnerable people die and more severe ethical and moral situations eventuate (deciding who gets a ventilator, staff at aged care facilities just walking out and leaving people to die, sheer impact of death of a loved one, living for a few days with the body of a loved one because no one will come remove the body) there are real trauma-related costs to this. People will wear this stuff for the rest of their lives and for those that are left will have real consequences. This includes real financial consequences ongoing as well.

Likewise the shutdown measures are shattering peoples lives. Financial stress, loss of job & identity, relationship issues, domestic violence, suicides. The list goes on and on. These will also have trauma-related consequences. Children growing up in these households will carry the trauma on to their kids. The effects of this will be felt for generations. The financial consequences are clear of course as well.

It's a contradiction and an impossibility but we need to minimise the loss of human life, the economic/real world consequences and the associated (large-scale World War-level) trauma all at the sesame time.

To me it looks like ScoMo is trying to walk a fine line here. I dislike the guy immensely but it s a tough job and in doing this (I think Square Peg you said this before) he's making no one happy with his actions.

I've go no idea if we are on the right track. I am doing ok so I might say, save more lives!! People who have lost their job and are in the depths of it might think save my life!!

Man, just a tough situation with no clear answers.
Great post!
 

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