Prediction Individual player predictions for 2016

[BRWB]

Pana take this as you will but out of all the posters here your views most closely align to mine on the list.

A few comments:

Honey - I tend to agree but I wonder if could be groomed for a run with role. I see some similarities to Picken. Interested on peoples thoughts on whether His kicking is technically flawed or if it's a composure thing.

Hrovat - if the tale that the club agreed to trade him to GWS is true then I can only assume his ops are likely to remain limited (and add that my respect for our list managers has increased even further - making tough calls on good blokes who are nearly good enough is hard work).

Agree on Daniel - potential star - ball use is breathtaking at times. McLean may be nearly as good but want to see a bigger body for his own protection and his decision making while excellent - could be quicker. Nit picking though.

Same thoughts on you re Hamling down to seeing him in Ballarat. If Roberts is best 22 by year's end then I will be wondering if Adams, Cordy and Collins are busts...just not a Roberts fan, too slow and not strong enough or good enough one on one - and doubtful he ever will be IMO.

Think it's optimistic to expect an aging Moyd and an injured Bont to maintain. With a lower base could Bont be the fwd this year to replace Stu?

Tom Campbell may surprise. Showed some great signs last year. If his tank improves and his suicidal play on tendencies curtailed he could be something. Reckon he will get ops as don't think Bev rates Minson and Rough is a fair chance to be injured IMO. On Rough he has to make it as a ruck or not at all IMO. Nowhere near it fwd or back. I think he can if his body lets him - game against Goldy late last yr is a good example of him realising his potential. Being injured a week later also is indicative.

Wallis is being underrated IMO. Just a gun.

Oh and finally using Talia as a measuring stick for anything other than mediocrity should be be banned.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I'll have a better read later on but after a skim you're predicting that all but two of the players on our list will improve on or equal their 2015 output, and half of our list will be B grade or better. Over 18% of our list have been rated as A graders. Frankly I think that's an extremely optimistic outlook and one that would, at a guess, place us firmly in the top four and challenging for the premiership in a big way. Not that there's anything wrong with that...I just hope we as a supporter base aren't setting expectations in line with an "everybody will improve" mantra. Player development isn't linear, nor is player output - particularly with young players. Predictions are great fun, I just hope we don't expect this level of improvement.

Not meaning to be a buzzkill, I have high hopes for this season too and, on a preliminary read, aside from a few bits and pieces I don't disagree with too much. Just making sure that line between hope and expectation is still in place...this board could be a nightmare if we start expecting greatness this year.

 

[BRWB]

I'll have a better read later on but after a skim you're predicting that all but two of the players on our list will improve on or equal their 2015 output, and half of our list will be B grade or better. Over 18% of our list have been rated as A graders. Frankly I think that's an extremely optimistic outlook and one that would, at a guess, place us firmly in the top four and challenging for the premiership in a big way. Not that there's anything wrong with that...I just hope we as a supporter base aren't setting expectations in line with an "everybody will improve" mantra. Player development isn't linear, nor is player output - particularly with young players. Predictions are great fun, I just hope we don't expect this level of improvement.

Not meaning to be a buzzkill, I have high hopes for this season too and, on a preliminary read, aside from a few bits and pieces I don't disagree with too much. Just making sure that line between hope and expectation is still in place...this board could be a nightmare if we start expecting greatness this year.

I think you are being very literal with the grades. And that's fine if we all understand and agree on a definition of A or B grade - but we don't.

I tended to look at Pana's comments and where he rated players relatively. Not sure you can do it any other way without agreed definitions.

 

[gangsta deluxe]

I think that we need stipulative definitions here of what constitutes an 'a, b, c, d etc' in this context.

For me the rankings appeared to be developed to an internal bell curve that Pan has (hence the fairly even distribution) and not the commonplace definition of an 'a grader' under which there are only a few in each club. This meant that I didnt have the reaction you did Dan*10. Nevertheless some clarification would be good, and I found some dubious (T. Boyd especially, the ranking seemed to be based on his meeting expectations, not his actual output).

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I think you are being very literal with the grades. And that's fine if we all understand and agree on a definition of A or B grade - but we don't.

I tended to look at Pana's comments and where he rated players relatively. Not sure you can do it any other way without agreed definitions.

You're right, but I'd suggest that in an A-E rating system B is always above average and A is always exceptional. Taking the ratings out of it though the predicted improvement is more relevant to the point I was making - uniform improvement across the squad may seem realistic because of how young we are, but development doesn't always work that way. The jumps across the groups, even acknowledging the ambiguity of the ratings system, seem a little disproportionate to the lengthy process of development.

Don't get me wrong, not an attack on Pann or anything of the sort. Love the thread and I'm enjoying reading through the descriptions - which, as I said, I more or less agree with. I was more emphasising that uniform improvement shouldn't be seen as an expectation rather than attacking the predictions themselves.

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

I don't see it. He's still a kid in a man's game. I was surprised Bev persisted with him at times last season, purely because of how under-developed he was.

I also don't see what separates him to other similar-build players like Hrovat, Hunter, Honeychurch and the like.

But (nearly) everybody seems keen on him.

I know where you're coming from.
I just look at Bailey Dale now and see the 'before' image of a 2021 Bulldogs Star.
Kind of like when we see an 'before' shot of Bob or a 'before' shot of Chris Grant. You know the ones where they look really young, pimply and awkward.
I think the development of Dale will be a slow burn. It will take years but it will be worth it. I think the coaches see that as well.

 

[BRWB]

You're right, but I'd suggest that in an A-E rating system B is always above average and A is always exceptional. Taking the ratings out of it though the predicted improvement is more relevant to the point I was making - uniform improvement across the squad may seem realistic because of how young we are, but development doesn't always work that way. The jumps across the groups, even acknowledging the ambiguity of the ratings system, seem a little disproportionate to the lengthy process of development.

Don't get me wrong, not an attack on Pann or anything of the sort. Love the thread and I'm enjoying reading through the descriptions - which, as I said, I more or less agree with. I was more emphasising that uniform improvement shouldn't be seen as an expectation rather than attacking the predictions themselves.

Fair enough. But now is the time for optimism! Everyone is flying.

Having said that, our youthful list profile suggests an almost across the board improvement is possible. But as you say everyone won't improve. For varying reasons can think of at least 10 that won't.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

Thanks for all the messages. As a general guide, I used the A to E rating as A being a "first 5-6 selected and consistent excellent output", B being a player who plays games in the 1s when available but may not give the output an A gives, C as someone who is probably good enough to play ones but is on the cusp, D as someone who is essentially depth and E as someone who either isn't good enough or hasn't shown anything yet.

It's hard for the kids because their exposure is so limited and I'm judging on a handful of games.

Generally though, I think all our kids who have played have shown that they are good enough to be AFL standard players. I may have been slightly optimistic, but it was in line with what I outlined above.

I think natural progression, both physically and mentally, will hopefully see the kids play a better standard this year. Of course I could (read probably will be) wrong, but it's just what I think.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

I know where you're coming from.
I just look at Bailey Dale now and see the 'before' image of a 2021 Bulldogs Star.
Kind of like when we see an 'before' shot of Bob or a 'before' shot of Chris Grant. You know the ones where they look really young, pimply and awkward.
I think the development of Dale will be a slow burn. It will take years but it will be worth it. I think the coaches see that as well.

I think this is right, but equally I was surprised with how well such an underdeveloped body performed last year. I can't seem him playing worse than he did.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

I'll have a better read later on but after a skim you're predicting that all but two of the players on our list will improve on or equal their 2015 output, and half of our list will be B grade or better. Over 18% of our list have been rated as A graders. Frankly I think that's an extremely optimistic outlook and one that would, at a guess, place us firmly in the top four and challenging for the premiership in a big way. Not that there's anything wrong with that...I just hope we as a supporter base aren't setting expectations in line with an "everybody will improve" mantra. Player development isn't linear, nor is player output - particularly with young players. Predictions are great fun, I just hope we don't expect this level of improvement.

Not meaning to be a buzzkill, I have high hopes for this season too and, on a preliminary read, aside from a few bits and pieces I don't disagree with too much. Just making sure that line between hope and expectation is still in place...this board could be a nightmare if we start expecting greatness this year.

You're probably right, but, as you say, our list is still so young, natural development is probably (hooefully) inevitable. I think the risk that some of the older guys drop off from their performances last year is more probable than the kids. The kids may not play every game, but not too many kids go backwards.

 

[bontshow]

I'll have a better read later on but after a skim you're predicting that all but two of the players on our list will improve on or equal their 2015 output, and half of our list will be B grade or better. Over 18% of our list have been rated as A graders. Frankly I think that's an extremely optimistic outlook and one that would, at a guess, place us firmly in the top four and challenging for the premiership in a big way

Not when all the A's are smalls

 

[fargy]

Thought that was a good write up Pann

Thought I'd list what I'm most looking forward too with expectations this year:
- JJ: Confidence is huge for him and if he can stay fit he is in for a huge year in my opinion.
- Stringer: Just amazing to think he has so much more improvement still in him. Fully expect him to tear a few games apart in short spaces of time this year.
- Ruckman: Will the real ruckman please stand up. Have no idea what Bev is thinking with this as he gave all our ruckman a good crack at it last year.
- Libba: Excited but cautious as well, he'll go 110% so we'll know pretty quickly how he is travelling. Will be a huge addition at his best!
- Macrae: Feel he is a little underrated, and also feel he has quite a bit of improvement in him. He is also one that wants to learn and improve, and works his butt off to do so. Fully expect another year of double digits in the Brownlow.
2nd year players: Feel we have a great group here and given our draft position we did extremely well. Expect at least a couple to be very well known amongst the competition by years end.

Tempered my expectations on Bont due to delayed pre season (but most likely will be wowed as usual). Feel that our key position players will be more respected by end of year as well but not sure what I expect from them at the moment. Also think that the competition for spots will bring out the best in some fringe players and a couple will become regulars by years end.

 

[stefoid]

I remember Prudden coming to us as a touted inside mid with a very dab kick on him.
I think grace under pressure is the best thing to have, and he seems to have it, along with being able to win his own footy.
Im surprised if he cant make a career out of that skillset just because he is slow and has had an unlucky run with injuries so far.

Here is his pre-draft stuff. He can win a contested ball


Here is 'that game' where he shows he can hit up targets around the contest under pressure.

 

[King Harold]

I remember Prudden coming to us as a touted inside mid with a very dab kick on him.
I think grace under pressure is the best thing to have, and he seems to have it, along with being able to win his own footy.
Im surprised if he cant make a career out of that skillset just because he is slow and has had an unlucky run with injuries so far.

Here is his pre-draft stuff. He can win a contested ball


Here is 'that game' where he shows he can hit up targets around the contest under pressure.

If a guy like him is on the edge of delisting , this list is in very good shape !

 

[Dogsman16]

I'm not sure he's in the delist category yet but he's absolutely a contender for being traded out this year if we got decent value for him (which we might not get).

I'd say his kicking skills are above average (he's certainly pretty good 20 - 40m user) and he can win his own ball but he doesn't really have an easy opening at all this year.

I think he's probably not the guy to play defence as he isn't a good mover (which is vital for a zone) and isn't someone who is going to offer a lot of intercept marks/zippy rebounder.

Our midfield is well and truly stacked (he's probably not in the top 10 - 12 mids in the club) and he hasn't been trialled as a small forward.

2 of Hrovat/Honey/Prudden should be traded at seasons end. People aren't going to like it but it surely needs to happen.

 

[the conch]

Nice summary mate.

Very much agree with your assessments of Suckling, Hrovat, Biggs, Dale and Daniel.

Not so sure about your take on Campbell, McLean, Roberts and Honeychurch.

I think we need to get away from this idea that 'if player x plays y games, we're in trouble'. We aren't carrying players like Veszpremi, Barlow, Tutt (perhaps unfair), Jones, Pearce, Sherman etc anymore.

Once Lachie Hunter got back into it, he showed A grade ball magnet form and smarts. Consistently too.
Campbell also showed he's capable. His late in the season game against Port for example.

 

[the conch]

I know where you're coming from.
I just look at Bailey Dale now and see the 'before' image of a 2021 Bulldogs Star.
Kind of like when we see an 'before' shot of Bob or a 'before' shot of Chris Grant. You know the ones where they look really young, pimply and awkward.
I think the development of Dale will be a slow burn. It will take years but it will be worth it. I think the coaches see that as well.

Bailey Dale seems to have that knack of being in the right place at the right time. Great mover, too.

 

[Fossie 32]

Nice work Panna. By reports Z Cordy is likely to improve? I Hope Redpath will too.

 

[Bazza Bulldog]

I remember Prudden coming to us as a touted inside mid with a very dab kick on him.
I think grace under pressure is the best thing to have, and he seems to have it, along with being able to win his own footy.
Im surprised if he cant make a career out of that skillset just because he is slow and has had an unlucky run with injuries so far.

Here is his pre-draft stuff. He can win a contested ball


Here is 'that game' where he shows he can hit up targets around the contest under pressure.

The chosen one (Prudden) will never be lightening quick, but he seems to have lost a yard of pace since his first VFL year. Maybe injuries/soft tissue worries, perhaps extra bulk or maybe AFL level is just so much faster. In these clips his pace doesn't seem a huge issue. He has footy smarts in spades.

 

[King Harold]

The chosen one (Prudden) will never be lightening quick, but he seems to have lost a yard of pace since his first VFL year. Maybe injuries/soft tissue worries, perhaps extra bulk or maybe AFL level is just so much faster. In these clips his pace doesn't seem a huge issue. He has footy smarts in spades.

Think you have summed him up well Bazza. It will be hard for him to push past others but I have seen a lot worse footballers play a fair bit of AFL footy.
His body standing up to the rigors is a major issue for him.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I reckon Prudden's AFL games were a touch undersold to be honest. Not a heavy ball winner but performed his role really well outside of a bit of a shaky debut.

 

[fargy]

Think you have summed him up well Bazza. It will be hard for him to push past others but I have seen a lot worse footballers play a fair bit of AFL footy.
His body standing up to the rigors is a major issue for him.

If his body holds up I could see him playing that Boyd role in the backline.

 

[Leezorr]

At this rate no one will be desisted next year and we will have a massive dilemma on our hands, i thought last year the same thing and then we still had quite the exodus.

 

[Doggies1972]

Dunno about the grading system as such, but with Lib back, and Wallis's improvement on inside work last season, I see players like Daniels, Hunter, Macrae, Hrovat and Dalhaus benefiting from more and fluent ball out of the packs, hopefully leading to the same around the rest of the ground. I think Daniels might be the one that will start having more and longer influences on games. Anyone know how he has fared after preseason.... put on weight or muscled up more??

 

[JEDi 44]

That terrific bloke JED ADCOCK is goin to do amazing things!