Opinion Is Jack Macrae Overrated?

[Trav 20]

5 clangers through pure disposal error isn’t good. It’s pretty shocking.

To go with that he gave away 7 free kicks.

But it doesn’t matter since he’s not Macrae so.

You really are a dope.

Firstly, the clanger stat is one of the most useless ever recorded.

Secondly, the best players in the game (and history) feature heavily.

Dustin Martin has 3 of the top 12 seasonal clanger stats ever recorded.

Franklin appears in the top 10, as does Bontempelli, Petracca, Wines, and Oliver.

It's the stat that gives fools the jollies.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

You really are a dope.

Firstly, the clanger stat is one of the most useless ever recorded.

Secondly, the best players in the game (and history) feature heavily.

Dustin Martin has 3 of the top 12 seasonal clanger stats ever recorded.

Franklin appears in the top 10, as does Bontempelli, Petracca, Wines, and Oliver.

It's the stat that gives fools the jollies.

Clangers matter. Turnovers don’t. Turnovers are much more wide variety while Clangers are direct which isn’t good. Doesn’t make or break anything like most stats needs to be used with others. Singular stats mean nothing as a whole they are usually much more represented.

 

[Trav 20]

Clangers matter.

It's the stat that gives fools the jollies.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

It's the stat that gives fools the jollies.

 

[Trav 20]

Exhibit A.

 

[Lampers]

It's the stat that gives fools the jollies.

I agree a clanger by itself as a stat is meaningless. Generally speaking the average AFL player goes at around 10% disposal clanger rate against disposals, although a kick heavy player will generally be a bit higher and a handball heavy player lower for obvious reasons.

Here are some relatively basic stats of select players, including Macrae to keep this on topic, plus Martin and Mitchell's universally acknowledged best seasons.

To me it indicates how phenomenal Martin's 2017 was.

It indicates Petracca mungs plenty of kicks (the eye test tells you this as well).

It also indicates that Macrae and Mitchell are way down the list in hurt factor per touch (if scoring or setting up a goal is "hurt") compared to the others with Oliver somewhere in between.

If you assume most clangers come from kicks, then Macrae is the least likely to kick a howler, followed by Martin in 2017, and then Mitchell's seasons. But when you couple that with the hurt factor difference, it's likely Macrae and Mitchell are attempting easier disposals into more open territory than the other players, or are disposing in more open space as generally they are getting a lesser ration of contested possessions. You'll probably find a lot of chip sideways backmen who come up favourably on disposal clangers as % of kicks as they are doing it under almost no pressure and attempting very easy kicks - you see this in kicking efficiency stats.

It also indicates how uncontested Tom Mitchell has become.

The main thing I take out if this is the more attacking and contested the player tries to be and the more they take on the game, the more likely they will have a clanger.

Player	Season	Kicks	HB	Cont pos	Uncont pos	Clangers	I50	FA	G	B	GA	Disposal Clanger as % of disposals	Disposal Clanger as % of contested possessions	Disposal Clangers as % of kicks	Cont pos %	% disposals that are I50	Scores plus assists as % disposals
Jack Macrae	2021	435	445	348	546	89	135	26	6	4	27	7.2%	18.1%	14.5%	38.9%	15.3%	4.2%
Dustin Martin	2021	200	161	151	210	54	84	12	19	7	16	11.6%	27.8%	21.0%	41.8%	23.3%	11.6%
Dustin Martin	2017	479	265	363	360	124	150	44	37	29	29	10.8%	22.0%	16.7%	50.2%	20.2%	12.8%
Christian Petracca	2021	409	321	349	381	158	171	29	29	19	19	17.7%	37.0%	31.5%	47.8%	23.4%	9.2%
Marcus Bontempelli	2021	396	299	291	439	143	172	37	31	19	24	15.3%	36.4%	26.8%	39.9%	24.7%	10.6%
Clayton Oliver	2021	358	431	435	359	129	130	46	11	18	18	10.5%	19.1%	23.2%	54.8%	16.5%	6.0%
Tom Mitchell	2018	389	459	388	465	100	118	32	13	7	12	8.0%	17.5%	17.5%	45.5%	13.9%	3.8%
Tom Mitchell	2021	321	433	254	504	81	91	25	8	5	10	7.4%	22.0%	17.4%	33.5%	12.1%	3.1%

 

[Trav 20]

I agree a clanger by itself as a stat is meaningless. Generally speaking the average AFL player goes at around 10% disposal clanger rate against disposals, although a kick heavy player will generally be a bit higher and a handball heavy player lower for obvious reasons.

Here are some relatively basic stats of select players, including Macrae to keep this on topic, plus Martin and Mitchell's universally acknowledged best seasons.

To me it indicates how phenomenal Martin's 2017 was.

It indicates Petracca mungs plenty of kicks (the eye test tells you this as well).

It also indicates that Macrae and Mitchell are way down the list in hurt factor per touch (if scoring or setting up a goal is "hurt") compared to the others with Oliver somewhere in between.

If you assume most clangers come from kicks, then Macrae is the least likely to kick a howler, followed by Martin in 2017, and then Mitchell's seasons. But when you couple that with the hurt factor difference, it's likely Macrae and Mitchell are attempting easier disposals into more open territory than the other players, or are disposing in more open space as generally they are getting a lesser ration of contested possessions. You'll probably find a lot of chip sideways backmen who come up favourably on disposal clangers as % of kicks as they are doing it under almost no pressure and attempting very easy kicks - you see this in kicking efficiency stats.

It also indicates how uncontested Tom Mitchell has become.

The main thing I take out if this is the more attacking and contested the player tries to be and the more they take on the game, the more likely they will have a clanger.

Player	Season	Kicks	HB	Cont pos	Uncont pos	Clangers	I50	FA	G	B	GA	Disposal Clanger as % of disposals	Disposal Clanger as % of contested possessions	Disposal Clangers as % of kicks	Cont pos %	% disposals that are I50	Scores plus assists as % disposals
Jack Macrae	2021	435	445	348	546	89	135	26	6	4	27	7.2%	18.1%	14.5%	38.9%	15.3%	4.2%
Dustin Martin	2021	200	161	151	210	54	84	12	19	7	16	11.6%	27.8%	21.0%	41.8%	23.3%	11.6%
Dustin Martin	2017	479	265	363	360	124	150	44	37	29	29	10.8%	22.0%	16.7%	50.2%	20.2%	12.8%
Christian Petracca	2021	409	321	349	381	158	171	29	29	19	19	17.7%	37.0%	31.5%	47.8%	23.4%	9.2%
Marcus Bontempelli	2021	396	299	291	439	143	172	37	31	19	24	15.3%	36.4%	26.8%	39.9%	24.7%	10.6%
Clayton Oliver	2021	358	431	435	359	129	130	46	11	18	18	10.5%	19.1%	23.2%	54.8%	16.5%	6.0%
Tom Mitchell	2018	389	459	388	465	100	118	32	13	7	12	8.0%	17.5%	17.5%	45.5%	13.9%	3.8%
Tom Mitchell	2021	321	433	254	504	81	91	25	8	5	10	7.4%	22.0%	17.4%	33.5%	12.1%	3.1%

Great post.

It's also worth noting that kicks inside 50 are regarded as the hardest in footy. Cripps had 7 in round one and didn't hit a target.

Petracca and Bontempelli have a high percentage of kicks taking on the hardest kick in footy.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Exhibit A.

You're actually joking right?

Clangers are literal direct turnovers, they aren't good. It's used in the way it is.

 

[Trav 20]

You're actually joking right?

Clangers are literal direct turnovers, they aren't good. It's used in the way it is.

No.

You're a dope and clangers are the most meaningless stat in footy.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

No.

You're a dope and clangers are the most meaningless stat in footy.

How, a clanger (if you look obv at the frees).

Is a direct turnover to the opposition.

It means that you've given them the ball back directly, which means they are more likely to then rebound.

It's not useless, but like all stats needs to be used in the correct manner.

 

[Dazb86]

Great post.

It's also worth noting that kicks inside 50 are regarded as the hardest in footy. Cripps had 7 in round one and didn't hit a target.

Petracca and Bontempelli have a high percentage of kicks taking on the hardest kick in footy.

Macraes inside 50's are generally pretty tidy. Often bites off the low angled ball. He doesn't have a heap of penetration on his kicking when going for distance. His kicks can get a bit floaty.

 

[Lampers]

Macraes inside 50's are generally pretty tidy. Often bites off the low angled ball. He doesn't have a heap of penetration on his kicking when going for distance. His kicks can get a bit floaty.

Lots of assists and inside 50s but very little scoring himself aligns with someone who doesn’t have kicking range but can hit up a leading forward or teammate alone inside 50.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Lots of assists and inside 50s but very little scoring himself aligns with someone who doesn’t have kicking range but can hit up a leading forward or teammate alone inside 50.

He's a good kick going inside 50 no point blasting away. Give it to a teammate in a better position.

 

[nahnah]

He is underrated

 

[Lampers]

Why are Melbourne fans so obsessed with Macrae?

Feeling very qualified to comment on his game having watched the Grand Final replay 100 times?

 

[WillHayward]

Now this is not directed at you because you haven't done it but i will use that last sentence to highlight a gripe i have with a lot of footy fans at the moment.

I so often hear how overrated Macrae, Neale, Mitchell etc are and they always go back to a similar comment.

'Give me 20 Bont touches over 35 Macrae touches'

'Give me 20 Dusty touches over 35 Mitchell touches'

How many footy fans rate Macrae over Bont?

How many rate Mitchell over Dusty?

How many rate Neale over Petracca?

I would suggest very very few, so where does the overrated tag come from on these guys? They all seem to be pretty accurately rated to me.

Totally agree.

But BigFooty is full of folk who never watch games and only read stats and then think they are experts because they "know numbers".

It's embarrassing.

 

[WillHayward]

Why are Melbourne fans so obsessed with Macrae?

Cos before 2021 they have plenty of experience watching shit footballers run around in circles?

 

[WillHayward]

If MacRae hits an inside 50 it's a sideways 15m kick to someone on the boundary.

Seriously just watch him play.

The folk that never even watch and then read the stats and think they are geniuses are embarrassing

 

[Tylerbombers]

If MacRae hits an inside 50 it's a sideways 15m kick to someone on the boundary.

Seriously just watch him play.

The folk that never even watch and then read the stats and think they are geniuses are embarrassing

Mini-Match: Western Bulldogs v Carlton

Extended highlights of the Bulldogs and Blues clash in round two

www.afl.com.au

0:35 40m inside 50 to advantage

4:53 40m bullet inside 50 to advantage slight angle in front of goal

8:03 centre clearance 40m kick inside 50 results in Libba goal

 

[BarryMorgan]

Mini-Match: Western Bulldogs v Carlton

Extended highlights of the Bulldogs and Blues clash in round two

www.afl.com.au

0:35 40m inside 50 to advantage

4:53 40m bullet inside 50 to advantage slight angle in front of goal

8:03 centre clearance 40m kick inside 50 results in Libba goal

Hope this hasn’t embarrassed any geniuses.

 

[Tylerbombers]

It also indicates that Macrae and Mitchell are way down the list in hurt factor per touch (if scoring or setting up a goal is "hurt") compared to the others with Oliver somewhere in between.

I think this favours forward half players who will take the final kick inside 50 or to goal over pure midfield players so I changed the final column to score involvements as % of disposals to see what it would look like.

Player	Season	Kicks	HB	Cont pos	Uncont pos	Clangers	I50	FA	G	B	GA	Disposal Clanger as % of disposals	Disposal Clanger as % of contested possessions	Disposal Clangers as % of kicks	Cont pos %	% disposals that are I50	Scores involvements as % disposals
Jack Macrae	2021	435	445	348	546	89	135	26	6	4	27	7.2%	18.1%	14.5%	38.9%	15.3%	20.5%
Dustin Martin	2021	200	161	151	210	54	84	12	19	7	16	11.6%	27.8%	21.0%	41.8%	23.3%	26.3%
Dustin Martin	2017	479	265	363	360	124	150	44	37	29	29	10.8%	22.0%	16.7%	50.2%	20.2%	30.2%
Christian Petracca	2021	409	321	349	381	158	171	29	29	19	19	17.7%	37.0%	31.5%	47.8%	23.4%	28.4%
Marcus Bontempelli	2021	396	299	291	439	143	172	37	31	19	24	15.3%	36.4%	26.8%	39.9%	24.7%	27.6%
Clayton Oliver	2021	358	431	435	359	129	130	46	11	18	18	10.5%	19.1%	23.2%	54.8%	16.5%	22.9%
Tom Mitchell	2018	389	459	388	465	100	118	32	13	7	12	8.0%	17.5%	17.5%	45.5%	13.9%	17.5%
Tom Mitchell	2021	321	433	254	504	81	91	25	8	5	10	7.4%	22.0%	17.4%	33.5%	12.1%	15.6%

 

[Tylerbombers]

Just adding on some other top midfielders for comparison

Player	Season	Score involvements as % disposals
Oliver Wines	2021	19.8%
Jack Steele	2021	20.2%
Touk Miller	2021	17.5%
Darcy Parish	2021	24.9%
Sam Walsh	2021	21.7%

 

[BlueTucker456]

Now this is not directed at you because you haven't done it but i will use that last sentence to highlight a gripe i have with a lot of footy fans at the moment.

I so often hear how overrated Macrae, Neale, Mitchell etc are and they always go back to a similar comment.

'Give me 20 Bont touches over 35 Macrae touches'

'Give me 20 Dusty touches over 35 Mitchell touches'

How many footy fans rate Macrae over Bont?

How many rate Mitchell over Dusty?

How many rate Neale over Petracca?

I would suggest very very few, so where does the overrated tag come from on these guys? They all seem to be pretty accurately rated to me.

If anything this is just showing me that apparently Neale is underrated. Why was he included in this?

 

[sr36]

You must be joking?!?!?!?

Which frame do you think matters most......the one you posted in which the game hasn't started yet or the one I posted 2 seconds in and the ruckman about to tap the ball?

Why is Macrae by himself?

It was smart play by the Blues. They're backing Cripps to be more dangerous than Macrae around stoopage, so the bloke who started next to Macrae leaves and becomes a scragger of Cripps"s opponent. In the next frame it actually looks like an illegal hold.

 

[sr36]

Lots of assists and inside 50s but very little scoring himself aligns with someone who doesn’t have kicking range but can hit up a leading forward or teammate alone inside 50.

And a mid who tends to position behind the ball and rarely gets ahead of it. They get more stats, but don't score as much. They're not usually rated as highly as the contested beast mids who regularly position ahead of the ball. Macrae is one of the best behinf the ball mids. But he's not as bullish or as damaging or as highly valued as the ones who get ahead of the ball.