This year feels a bit like 2003. If it's really that, if it's the start of an extended run of success thanks to a talented young list, then there should be a bunch of young talent coming through. And we shouldn't be relying on our older players too much.
For me, tbh, jury still out on both of those things. Last night certainly an example: Riewoldt kicked goals, Dempster and Gilbo were very good in defence, Joey got lots of the footy. Not to mention mid-agers in Steven, Geary and Armo being very good. Conversely, a few kids did little: Acres, Sinclair, Billings, Wright, McKenzie, etc.
So I'm a little worried that this turns out to be a false dawn.
Best way to get a sense of the age of the good players is to look at the B&F. Here's what ended up being the top 10 in 2002, 2003, and 2004.
2002 best and fairest placings:
1st: 19 year old (Riewoldt)
2nd: 22 year old (Hayes)
3rd: 21 year old (Baker)
4th: 29 year old (Thompson)
5th: 25 year old (Lawrence)
6th: 24 year old (Hamill)
7th: 22 year old (Milne)
8th: 25 year old (Hudghton)
9th: 22 year old (Black)
10th: 29 year old (Peckett)
Young (18-23): 5
Middle age (24-28): 3
Veteran (29+): 2
2003 best and fairest placings:
1st: 23 year old (Hayes)
2nd: 31 year old (Harvey)
3rd: 26 year old (Powell)
4th: 20 year old (Riewoldt)
5th: 26 year old (Jones)
6th: 27 year old (Gehrig)
7th: 22 year old (Baker)
8th: 25 year old (Hamill)
9th: 19 year old (Clarke)
10th: 26 year old (Hudghton)
Young (18-23): 4
Middle age (24-28): 5
Veteran (29+): 1
2004 best and fairest placings:
1st: 21 year old (Riewoldt)
2nd: 19 year old (Ball)
3rd: 24 year old (Hayes)
4th: 20 year old (Dal Santo)
5th: 27 year old (Jones)
6th: 28 year old (Gehrig)
7th: 32 year old (Harvey)
8th: 23 year old (Baker)
9th: 26 year old (Voss)
10th: 23 year old (Penny)
Young (18-23): 5
Middle age (24-28): 4
Veteran (29+): 1
Pretty young names there, especially in 04. "Young" players were half of the top ten. And that was a year where we won 10 in a row and made a prelim, so they performed in big games. It was a young list but it was showing a lot - the top 4 in the B&F were younger than 24 - and sprinkled in were Harvey, Gehrig, Jones, etc.
On the other hand, here's our B&F last year:
2015 best and fairest placings:
1st: 25 year old (Steven)
2nd: 26 year old (Armitage)
3rd: 31 year old (Dempster)
4th: 31 year old (Montagna)
5th: 26 year old (Geary)
6th: 23 year old (Roberton)
7th: 32 year old (Riewoldt)
8th: 22 year old (Bruce)
9th: 32 year old (Fisher)
10th: 21 year old (Webster)
Young (18-23): 2
Middle age (24-28): 3
Veteran (29+): 4
Not so good. Two veterans in the top four, four in the top ten. And only two young players, in 8th and 10th. Doesn't look like any of 02, 03, 04.
There are many ways to rebuild, sure. But in order to be confident we have anything like that same talent base, I'd want to see some kids finishing top ten and ideally top four in the B&F. Will that happen this year? My rough guess at the moment, ordered by age not placing, is:
33 year old (Riewoldt)
32 year old (Dempster)
29 year old (Gilbert)
27 year old (Geary)
26 year old (Steven)
25 year old (Hickey)
25 year old (Savage)
23 year old (Newnes)
22 year old (Ross)
21 year old (Membrey)
Young (18-23): 3
Middle age (24-28): 4
Veteran (29+): 3
(Yes, Weller could sneak in there, adding a 24 year old - equally though so could Joey.)
So that's definitely moving in the right direction, but still doesn't compare with 03/04. And none of the young players are going to finish in the top two (Steven+Riewoldt). Still doesn't feel like quite enough for me to be convinced there's a solid foundation of young talent coming through.
That doesn't mean I'm not excited about Billings, McCartin, and Gresham. I definitely think Lonie has what it takes. Dunstan I'm hoping will take another step. Goddard will get there eventually. Freeman could obviously be anything. Webster, Sinclair, Acres look like they should make solid players or better.
But they're not close to being there yet. If we play finals this year, a big part of that will be thanks to guys who are still very good but aging rapidly. How much can we possibly expect from them in 2017, 2018, 2019?
Bottom line:
This isn't 2003. We don't have a young Hayes and a very young Riewoldt with B&Fs already in hand, leading a super-young group containing Ball, Baker, Milne, Clarke, Dal Santo, etc. We don't have a middle like Gehrig, Hamill, Hudghton, Voss, Jones.
We're relying on our old players to get us over the line in big games, and they're getting older, and that's why we're at least another 18 months from a serious finals challenge. 2018 should remain the expectation.
For me, tbh, jury still out on both of those things. Last night certainly an example: Riewoldt kicked goals, Dempster and Gilbo were very good in defence, Joey got lots of the footy. Not to mention mid-agers in Steven, Geary and Armo being very good. Conversely, a few kids did little: Acres, Sinclair, Billings, Wright, McKenzie, etc.
So I'm a little worried that this turns out to be a false dawn.
Best way to get a sense of the age of the good players is to look at the B&F. Here's what ended up being the top 10 in 2002, 2003, and 2004.
2002 best and fairest placings:
1st: 19 year old (Riewoldt)
2nd: 22 year old (Hayes)
3rd: 21 year old (Baker)
4th: 29 year old (Thompson)
5th: 25 year old (Lawrence)
6th: 24 year old (Hamill)
7th: 22 year old (Milne)
8th: 25 year old (Hudghton)
9th: 22 year old (Black)
10th: 29 year old (Peckett)
Young (18-23): 5
Middle age (24-28): 3
Veteran (29+): 2
2003 best and fairest placings:
1st: 23 year old (Hayes)
2nd: 31 year old (Harvey)
3rd: 26 year old (Powell)
4th: 20 year old (Riewoldt)
5th: 26 year old (Jones)
6th: 27 year old (Gehrig)
7th: 22 year old (Baker)
8th: 25 year old (Hamill)
9th: 19 year old (Clarke)
10th: 26 year old (Hudghton)
Young (18-23): 4
Middle age (24-28): 5
Veteran (29+): 1
2004 best and fairest placings:
1st: 21 year old (Riewoldt)
2nd: 19 year old (Ball)
3rd: 24 year old (Hayes)
4th: 20 year old (Dal Santo)
5th: 27 year old (Jones)
6th: 28 year old (Gehrig)
7th: 32 year old (Harvey)
8th: 23 year old (Baker)
9th: 26 year old (Voss)
10th: 23 year old (Penny)
Young (18-23): 5
Middle age (24-28): 4
Veteran (29+): 1
Pretty young names there, especially in 04. "Young" players were half of the top ten. And that was a year where we won 10 in a row and made a prelim, so they performed in big games. It was a young list but it was showing a lot - the top 4 in the B&F were younger than 24 - and sprinkled in were Harvey, Gehrig, Jones, etc.
On the other hand, here's our B&F last year:
2015 best and fairest placings:
1st: 25 year old (Steven)
2nd: 26 year old (Armitage)
3rd: 31 year old (Dempster)
4th: 31 year old (Montagna)
5th: 26 year old (Geary)
6th: 23 year old (Roberton)
7th: 32 year old (Riewoldt)
8th: 22 year old (Bruce)
9th: 32 year old (Fisher)
10th: 21 year old (Webster)
Young (18-23): 2
Middle age (24-28): 3
Veteran (29+): 4
Not so good. Two veterans in the top four, four in the top ten. And only two young players, in 8th and 10th. Doesn't look like any of 02, 03, 04.
There are many ways to rebuild, sure. But in order to be confident we have anything like that same talent base, I'd want to see some kids finishing top ten and ideally top four in the B&F. Will that happen this year? My rough guess at the moment, ordered by age not placing, is:
33 year old (Riewoldt)
32 year old (Dempster)
29 year old (Gilbert)
27 year old (Geary)
26 year old (Steven)
25 year old (Hickey)
25 year old (Savage)
23 year old (Newnes)
22 year old (Ross)
21 year old (Membrey)
Young (18-23): 3
Middle age (24-28): 4
Veteran (29+): 3
(Yes, Weller could sneak in there, adding a 24 year old - equally though so could Joey.)
So that's definitely moving in the right direction, but still doesn't compare with 03/04. And none of the young players are going to finish in the top two (Steven+Riewoldt). Still doesn't feel like quite enough for me to be convinced there's a solid foundation of young talent coming through.
That doesn't mean I'm not excited about Billings, McCartin, and Gresham. I definitely think Lonie has what it takes. Dunstan I'm hoping will take another step. Goddard will get there eventually. Freeman could obviously be anything. Webster, Sinclair, Acres look like they should make solid players or better.
But they're not close to being there yet. If we play finals this year, a big part of that will be thanks to guys who are still very good but aging rapidly. How much can we possibly expect from them in 2017, 2018, 2019?
Bottom line:
This isn't 2003. We don't have a young Hayes and a very young Riewoldt with B&Fs already in hand, leading a super-young group containing Ball, Baker, Milne, Clarke, Dal Santo, etc. We don't have a middle like Gehrig, Hamill, Hudghton, Voss, Jones.
We're relying on our old players to get us over the line in big games, and they're getting older, and that's why we're at least another 18 months from a serious finals challenge. 2018 should remain the expectation.