Mid East Israel declare war after Hamas attack III

[QuietB]

Again,

I said in a pure 1v1 with Iran - that was the Hypothetical.

USA, Hezbollah etc have nothing to do with what i originally suggested. You are indeed moving the goal posts.

And Israel cannot win.

They cannot even “win” in Gaza.

All they can do is indiscriminately kill women and children and destroy shit, which seems to make them happy

 

[HirdsTheWord]

And Israel cannot win.

They cannot even “win” in Gaza.

All they can do is indiscriminately kill women and children and destroy shit, which seems to make them happy

Vs iran? Wrong

Agree

Agree

 

[QuietB]

Again,

I said in a pure 1v1 with Iran - that was the Hypothetical.

USA, Hezbollah etc have nothing to do with what i originally suggested. You are indeed moving the goal posts.

Israel is screwed - only way out is ceasefire

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Israel is screwed - only way out is ceasefire

that's incorrect.

Only way out is acceptance of jews and arabs being Neighbours, and learning to live as such

All a ceasefire will be is temporary. Killing won't stop with a ceasefire.

 

[Saint]

Vs iran? Wrong

Agree

Agree

How does Israel beat Iran?

Flying sorties over Syria and Iraq to strike Iran. How long could they do that? And how much damage can they do before Iran and Russia and Turkey make Syria a No Fly Zone by shooting down Israeli planes.

Ground invasion of Lebanon to fight Hezbollah? That suits Iran and even if Israel occupy Lebanon, Hezbollah will move back into Syria and Turkey.

The problem for Israel is that Iran will be fighting from multiple proxy countries and Israel can't invade them all, they don't have the manpower and the US won't be putting boots on the ground.

 

[QuietB]

How does Israel beat Iran?

Flying sorties over Syria and Iraq to strike Iran. How long could they do that? And how much damage can they do before Iran and Russia and Turkey make Syria a No Fly Zone by shooting down Israeli planes.

Ground invasion of Lebanon to fight Hezbollah? That suits Iran and even if Israel occupy Lebanon, Hezbollah will move back into Syria and Turkey.

The problem for Israel is that Iran will be fighting from multiple proxy countries and Israel can't invade them all, they don't have the manpower and the US won't be putting boots on the ground.

Why would they be going through Syria? Unless Jordan will not allow them access. No idea what Iraq would do - doubt it would be good.

Agree Russia are itching to get involved. And Turkey is the wildcard.

Escalation is not an option - it means the end of Israel.

 

[Smeg Head]

Israel is screwed - only way out is ceasefire

Scott Ritter? A pedophile and Putin lackey isn't a good source of opinion.

 

[Saint]

If you woke up from a 10 year sleep and heard that Israel was thinking of going to war with Iran, you'd probably guess that they had international support and the support of surrounding countries to be trying something so audacious.

Instead, they've internationally isolated themselves from everyone except the US (and Australia), nobody will commit troops for them, Turkey are more likely to supply arms to Hezbollah than block them.

Russia are allied with Iran and roaming across Syria and Iraq's Government is completely pro-Iran. Even under Saddam, they were happy to lob Scuds at Israel. Now they're more shia/Iranian aligned.

Will Israel have more targeted strikes? Yes. Will this further any Israeli goal, such as safety and security? No.

Will Israel suffer more damage the more they attack Iran? Yes.

 

[QuietB]

If you woke up from a 10 year sleep and heard that Israel was thinking of going to war with Iran, you'd probably guess that they had international support and the support of surrounding countries to be trying something so audacious.

Instead, they've internationally isolated themselves from everyone except the US (and Australia), nobody will commit troops for them, Turkey are more likely to supply arms to Hezbollah than block them.

Russia are allied with Iran and roaming across Syria and Iraq's Government is completely pro-Iran. Even under Saddam, they were happy to lob Scuds at Israel. Now they're more shia/Iranian aligned.

Will Israel have more targeted strikes? Yes. Will this further any Israeli goal, such as safety and security? No.

Will Israel suffer more damage the more they attack Iran? Yes.

The imminent Iran retribution attack will be interesting.

1/ if it is coordinated with the USA this time
2/ how big it is

 

[Saint]

The imminent Iran retribution attack will be interesting.

1/ if it is coordinated with the USA this time
2/ how big it is

I think they would have been surprised that Jordan, the US and UK helped shoot a lot of them down over the 1000km journey. So suspect they will fire more from closer, probably from western Syria and Lebanon under Russian air protection (which will take a few days, maybe weeks to organise). Just as they're about to get near the border, I imagine the largest barrage of rockets from Hezbollah would also be launched to overwhelm the air defences.

I think last time they were probably expecting very few to hit their target and the launch was the statement they were trying to make. I imagine they'll want to do some damage this time perhaps even civilian area targets, such as Israeli Govt offices. I think a few people in Israel are probably feeling a bit more comfortable than they should. It'll definitely be worse than last time, the Iranians would have learnt.

I also wouldn't feel very safe if I lived around an Israeli embassy right now.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Why would they be going through Syria? Unless Jordan will not allow them access. No idea what Iraq would do - doubt it would be good.

Agree Russia are itching to get involved. And Turkey is the wildcard.

Escalation is not an option - it means the end of Israel.

Why would Jordan give them access?

I'd also assume they can take their submarines up the Gulf and lob missiles.

 

[QuietB]

Why would Jordan give them access?

I'd also assume they can take their submarines up the Gulf and lob missiles.

I don't know. Maybe Israel do not use planes at all. Iran won't.

 

[Werewolf]

Israel is screwed - only way out is ceasefire

Scott Ritter? A pedophile and Putin lackey isn't a good source of opinion.

Yeah I'd avoid Ritter - sex offender who really likes the sound of his own voice

Daniel Davis is one of the best analysts I've seen so far (on Afghanistan, Israel/Gaza, Russia/Ukraine):

https://www.youtube.com/@DanielDavisDeepDive

 

[rjslcM]

Why would Jordan give them access?

I'd also assume they can take their submarines up the Gulf and lob missiles.

Israel and Jordan have a history of military cooperation.

 

[Saint]

Israel and Jordan have a history of military cooperation.

The King does what the US tell him. But it comes at the price of internal security. If it's prolonged, the battle will be taken to Jordanian soil (i.e. lots of Palestinians who live in Jordan won't be happy at all).

Jordan will permit Israel to do things, but they won't assist in offence.

 

[QuietB]

Yeah I'd avoid Ritter - sex offender who really likes the sound of his own voice

Daniel Davis is one of the best analysts I've seen so far (on Afghanistan, Israel/Gaza, Russia/Ukraine):

https://www.youtube.com/@DanielDavisDeepDive

I don't know anything about Ritter (I missed the sex pest thing when I checked his credentials) - it just popped up in my YouTube feed today so I watched it and I largely agree with the contents of the video.

Mearsheimer is probably my favourite for this stuff and I note he is on the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Currently reading The Great Delusion - good read

 

[sdfc]

Ritter wrote a book called War on Iraq prior to the invasion that said Iraq had f-all WMDs and the reason for war was bogus. Turned out he was right.

 

[QuietB]

Imagine 25.50 happened

 

[faible]

Israel angers Iran. US sends aircraft carrier to protect Israel from repercussions. World wonders why Israel keeps doing things not worrying about repercussions of their actions.

 

[CD Xbow]

Sadly I think all out war in the region is almost inevitable after recent events and the horrors we have seen already will pale in comparison to what is to come.

 

[rjslcM]

Sadly I think all out war in the region is almost inevitable after recent events and the horrors we have seen already will pale in comparison to what is to come.

“All out war” implies that no stone will be left unturned, no weapon off limits, until someone loses. I don’t like the sound of that.

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

Aus government advising anyone who cna out of Lebanon via any means to do it now.

 

[QuietB]

Sadly I think all out war in the region is almost inevitable after recent events and the horrors we have seen already will pale in comparison to what is to come.

All out war is the end of Israel. Won’t happen.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

All out war is the end of Israel. Won’t happen.

No, it's not.

The USA (and Australia too) will get involved well before the end of Israelis even close.

 

[CD Xbow]

“All out war” implies that no stone will be left unturned, no weapon off limits, until someone loses. I don’t like the sound of that.

No, it's has the potential to be terrible. Unfortunately war suits too many parties how.

'The Iranians are vowing revenge and the Israelis are daring them and their proxies to strike. This is an unpredictable moment. It seems quite unlikely the actors will pull back from a devastating fight. This is the war for which they have all been preparing.'
From:

Are Israel and Iran Headed for All Out War?

The killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and targeted assassination of a Hezbollah military official in Beirut bring Israel and Iran, through its proxies, closer to war.

www.cfr.org

See also:

Ismail Haniyeh’s Assassination Will Expand the Israel-Iran Conflict

Without tempering influence from outside, all signs point to a regional escalation along multiple fronts.

nationalinterest.org