Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[PMBangers]

Neale is very very good, but I think there's always been a difference between Neale and Danger/Bont/Dusty levels of superstar, even if they may not always be as consistent. No criticism of Neale, I just think athletically all 3 have the edge. In the same vein I see Horne having that type of xfactor, where as I haven't seen it in Rowell despite being a hell of a player from the get go.

Both have their place in football obviously, a Neale type seems to have less of a gap between their best and worst as opposed to the others, but the others are genuinely match winners more often, I think preference is the main thing that separates them tbh

 

[GeTrain]

How much of Heath's game on Saturday was because he's a year older than most playing against a weakened Calder Cannons side? Apologies if this isn't the place to ask this, but thought draft threads would be a better place to ask since he's competing against upcoming draftees.

 

[Great8]

Jason Horne taking down Darcy Fogarty

32

Darcy Fogarty

Age

24

Ht

194cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.5

2star

K

5.7

2star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.7

4star

T

1.7

4star

G

1.2

4star

D

6.3

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.3

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.3

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.0

4star

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

How many games of Horne have you actually watched in the SANFL this year?

Full games from start to finish? None. My uncle is a recruiter/scout for Collingwood and sends me extended highlights packages of some of the players here and there and I keep up to date with VFL and Souths game highlights. Other than that just talk to my uncle about which players he thinks will be on Carltons radar and who he sees as the real guns of the drafts. Occasionally watch a quarter here and there but not frequently.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Full games from start to finish? None. My uncle is a recruiter/scout for Collingwood and sends me extended highlights packages of some of the players here and there and I keep up to date with VFL and Souths game highlights. Other than that just talk to my uncle about which players he thinks will be on Carltons radar and who he sees as the real guns of the drafts. Occasionally watch a quarter here and there but not frequently.

Sounds legit. I absolutely believe you…

 

[StonesThrow]

May I ask, makes Rowell such a superstar talent? Obviously I'm bias regarding Walsh but when I watch Rowell I see a young nuggety midfielder whos generally very very good at everything, like a more developed Lachie Neale at his age. On the other hand when I watch Horne, or Walsh, or Butters, even Tarryn Thomas I see a point of difference. Some X-Factor. Horne to me looks like an absolute freak athletically. Explosive, huge leap, reminds me of Danger if he was a bit more evasive and slightly less bullish while also being a bit better by foot. Butters has the insane illusiveness and creativity and Walsh has the best engine I've personally been alive to watch come through as a draftee.

Obviously he's a very good player, but is there anything that Rowell looks to become that he isn't already? Kids built like an ox and has good skills but he doesn't look the type whos going to develop into a high flyer or forward half fwd mismatch like Dusty/Bont who teams struggle to contain. All the absolute top tier players have something that sets them apart from the rest of the comp - Bont, Dusty, Danger, Fyfe, Pendles. Now Petracca. They all had more to them than simply just being very good ball winners. Ability to push forward, the Pendles timewarp, explosiveness, great kicks, big frames, great marks around the ground.
I've just never seen the same for Rowell, but maybe thats just the way I see the game. I'll take a Dusty/Bont over any amount of Lachie Neales you throw at me.

That being said I don't see any reason why Horne couldn't end up the same, he definitely has the tools and x factor galore if he learns to use it more often.

Go and watch his debut until his injury. He can look unassuming but he actually does everything extremely well and accumulates to go with it. Rarely makes a bad decision either.

Hopefully injury doesn't ruin him.

I rate Horne as highly as I did Rowell (albeit they are different types). That is, they would both be guns very early on.

 

[Knightmare]

May I ask, makes Rowell such a superstar talent? Obviously I'm bias regarding Walsh but when I watch Rowell I see a young nuggety midfielder whos generally very very good at everything, like a more developed Lachie Neale at his age. On the other hand when I watch Horne, or Walsh, or Butters, even Tarryn Thomas I see a point of difference. Some X-Factor. Horne to me looks like an absolute freak athletically. Explosive, huge leap, reminds me of Danger if he was a bit more evasive and slightly less bullish while also being a bit better by foot. Butters has the insane illusiveness and creativity and Walsh has the best engine I've personally been alive to watch come through as a draftee.

Obviously he's a very good player, but is there anything that Rowell looks to become that he isn't already? Kids built like an ox and has good skills but he doesn't look the type whos going to develop into a high flyer or forward half fwd mismatch like Dusty/Bont who teams struggle to contain. All the absolute top tier players have something that sets them apart from the rest of the comp - Bont, Dusty, Danger, Fyfe, Pendles. Now Petracca. They all had more to them than simply just being very good ball winners. Ability to push forward, the Pendles timewarp, explosiveness, great kicks, big frames, great marks around the ground.
I've just never seen the same for Rowell, but maybe thats just the way I see the game. I'll take a Dusty/Bont over any amount of Lachie Neales you throw at me.

That being said I don't see any reason why Horne couldn't end up the same, he definitely has the tools and x factor galore if he learns to use it more often.

With Rowell the problem has been injuries. That's why he's not looking like a number one pick as we speak. He needs a clear run with injury and a full and problem free preseason and hopefully he gets back to his best.

Go back and watch his first four games and what he was doing during the 2020 pre-season. That's why before the start of the season I was saying he could win Gold Coast's B+F in 2020 (and he was on track to until that injury).

Rowell has Horne/Walsh/Butters comfortably beat as a contested ball winner and even as an accumulator the way he was going initially he looked miles ahead. Everything he was doing was perfection. The little things he was doing around the ground - blocking for teammates, leading up constantly and finding it at will around the ground also. He was even before his first game playing like and looking like a 200 gamer which is something I've never seen before. He actually before that injury had a good burst of speed and was actually for the same age and stage more explosive than Walsh.

All that said, without injuries, I don't believe Rowell would have become that Dusty/Danger/Fyfe/Bont/Petracca calibre midfielder. I feel like he could have become a top-5 mid, Brownlow medalist, many time All-Australian and B+F winner. But forward of centre he doesn't have those weapons at 180cm that those guys do as that single position star, so his upside may have been more like a Joel Selwood for a point of comparison. My personal view is if not for injury and had his progression continued as it was looking like it was going to, we'd still be talking about him as being ahead of Walsh/Butters/Horne today, and maybe even as a Brownlow contender as the talk was 2-4 games in last year. He was just that advanced and that good because his game is so mature. That's not to say one of those guys can't get ahead of him, Butters and he'll need a healthy run himself I think could be that guy from that group who with regular midfield opportunity for the Power could become that special player, and even last year for mine he was the Power's best.

In any case, fingers crossed Rowell can get back to playing his better footballer.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

With Rowell the problem has been injuries. That's why he's not looking like a number one pick as we speak. He needs a clear run with injury and a full and problem free preseason and hopefully he gets back to his best.

Go back and watch his first four games and what he was doing during the 2020 pre-season. That's why before the start of the season I was saying he could win Gold Coast's B+F in 2020 (and he was on track to until that injury).

Rowell has Horne/Walsh/Butters comfortably beat as a contested ball winner and even as an accumulator the way he was going initially he looked miles ahead. Everything he was doing was perfection. The little things he was doing around the ground - blocking for teammates, leading up constantly and finding it at will around the ground also. He was even before his first game playing like and looking like a 200 gamer which is something I've never seen before. He actually before that injury had a good burst of speed and was actually for the same age and stage more explosive than Walsh.

All that said, without injuries, I don't believe Rowell would have become that Dusty/Danger/Fyfe/Bont/Petracca calibre midfielder. I feel like he could have become a top-5 mid, Brownlow medalist, many time All-Australian and B+F winner. But forward of centre he doesn't have those weapons at 180cm that those guys do as that single position star, so his upside may have been more like a Joel Selwood for a point of comparison. My personal view is if not for injury and had his progression continued as it was looking like it was going to, we'd still be talking about him as being ahead of Walsh/Butters/Horne today, and maybe even as a Brownlow contender as the talk was 2-4 games in last year. He was just that advanced and that good because his game is so mature. That's not to say one of those guys can't get ahead of him, Butters and he'll need a healthy run himself I think could be that guy from that group who with regular midfield opportunity for the Power could become that special player, and even last year for mine he was the Power's best.

In any case, fingers crossed Rowell can get back to playing his better footballer.

Thanks. Fair points all around.

 

[Knightmare]

How much of Heath's game on Saturday was because he's a year older than most playing against a weakened Calder Cannons side? Apologies if this isn't the place to ask this, but thought draft threads would be a better place to ask since he's competing against upcoming draftees.

We did have the Metro v Country game on, so Podhajski wasn't playing. Had he been out there, he would have likely roughly broken even with Heath. Heath did though play against two 200cm or taller rucks, one of whom is also an overager, so I won't take any more away from his performance.

Jason Horne taking down Darcy Fogarty

Jason Horne doing Jason Horne things. As I've been saying, he's committed to the defensive side of the game like I haven't seen from a pick one contender. He'll tackle, pressure and really apply himself going the other way. I'm never going to stop giving him credit for being so good on that side of the ball because it's what sets him apart most from his peers and former early picks.

 

[GeTrain]

We did have the Metro v Country game on, so Podhajski wasn't playing. Had he been out there, he would have likely roughly broken even with Heath. Heath did though play against two 200cm or taller rucks, one of whom is also an overager, so I won't take any more away from his performance.

ah okay thanks. Also how worried should the Saints be about Owens being taken in the top 20 or does he need a few more strong performances first before he's in that picture?

 

[briztoon]

Neale is very very good, but I think there's always been a difference between Neale and Danger/Bont/Dusty levels of superstar, even if they may not always be as consistent. No criticism of Neale, I just think athletically all 3 have the edge. In the same vein I see Horne having that type of xfactor, where as I haven't seen it in Rowell despite being a hell of a player from the get go.

Lucky for Gold Coast, they also have their own X factor mid as well, in Noah Anderson. Give both of them time (and hopefully some more senior bodies around them).

 

[Knightmare]

ah okay thanks. Also how worried should the Saints be about Owens being taken in the top 20 or does he need a few more strong performances first before he's in that picture?

Owens' stocks are rising and that's the best I've seen him play this year. He could well push into the first half of draft picture, but I have him closer to 40 than 20 at this point. He'll need more games like that to earn his way into my top-20. It's a story to keep track of, but it's not like with Mac Andrew where it's looking increasingly obvious that a big would come inside the top-20.

 

[curnow inferno]

KM hypothetical question.. where would you have ranked horne and daicos if they were in the crop of 2018 draft? reading through some of your previous posts, i get the impression you might not have had either in your first 7 or 8 picks?

 

[Knightmare]

KM hypothetical question.. where would you have ranked horne and daicos if they were in the crop of 2018 draft? reading through some of your previous posts, i get the impression you might not have had either in your first 7 or 8 picks?

You're right to get the impression I'd rate Horne/Daicos lower than a lot of guys.

In 2018 I flat out loved the top end. And that should be made very obvious by my rating of Walsh at #4. I was consistent then in saying Lukosius is the best talent I'd seen in the juniors barr none, Rankine the most talented forward I'd seen and Smith the best midfield in the draft, even just edging Walsh. That's how highly I thought of that top end.

Based on my views in 2018, and I'm going to give myself no benefit of hindsight: Lukosius, Rankine, Smith and Walsh all higher than where I rate Daicos and Horne, with that 2-6 group all in the same conversation and hard to separate, with Lukosius the sole player to stand out above the rest in my eyes. Given the ACL to King, I'd have gone Daicos/Horne at 5/6 respectively, just ahead of King who I'd rate ahead of Darcy still again when merging those thoughts from then with this year's crop at this point in time. Though Darcy marginally ahead of Blakey/Caldwell/B.King who would be those next guys down in that merged draft board for an I guess you could call it top-11 as that broader group based on pre-draft views I felt would be elite. And with 8/11 of those from 2018, it shows just how insane that top end is. As per my thoughts at the time, and I wasn't calling it a superdraft then as I didn't see the depth, but I'll still maintain the same wording I used then and describe it as a 'super top-end' and 'the best top end I've seen' as positions I can't see changing for a long time.

Needless to say I'm not part of the apparent boys club suggesting Horne is the next Dangerfield. He's neither going to reach those heights, nor play such an offensively geared style of game with a lot of what he does defensively among the ways he impacts games most consistently and what most other analysts (Thunderstruck I can credit for also noticing and volunteering as a component of his own analysis) have so far missed or are wrongly not crediting him for as one of his absolute greatest strengths.

 

[Sphynx]

All I see with Horne is Dangerfield. He can take about 3 steps running and that's all you need. Same running gait, sidestep, ball drop similar. Horne has pace but not the full blistering acceleration and speed of a younger Danger it's like a dumbed down version of that. He even flicks his hair back the same!!!

After that most other aspects of his game compare pretty favourably. He's ruthlessly hard at the man and ball, he craves contact, he knows he's good and it shows, he has confidence and is assertive. Horne would be better defensively than Danger, he sees the game 2-3 pieces of play ahead and is already there in position and thinking about it. I think I'm as close to Horne as Lyons is.

He could be playing AFL right now and not look out of place at all.

All I see is a genuine 12-15 year gun at AFL level with copious honours to his name. He's the best junior mid I've seen come out of SA since Gibbs and whilst he doesn't have the class, production or poise of Gibbs at the same age at SANFL level he's about 20 times harder and more suited to be (and this is the most important point) impactful per possession, per moment, per contest, per 1%'er than Gibbs (and certainly Daicos) for that matter. He's a generational midfielder who I would take at pick 1 over every other pick 1 with the exception of Rowell, since Gibbs in 2006 and quite possibly Hodge in 2001

All I see is Ricciuto tbh.

Same height.

Similar powerful builds when they were young. Look like they are carved out of granite.

Both played the game with a hard edge around the packs.

Explosive turn of pace and can jump on opponents heads and gain separation above a pack.

Similar hunched erratic fast movements and ball drop too.

I’ve read KM comments on him, I’m convinced he’s either biased or hasn’t watched him. (Only watching the u18 Academy game vs Geelong VFL and forming your opinion on that doesn’t count...)

You can’t watch him for more than 5 minutes and not realise the raw power the kid posses’ and plays with.

The Sloane and Lyons comparisons are laughable from an athletic POV.

Hes a mixture of Dangerfield or Ricciuto, take your pick.

 

[rusman]

Great work km. Best in the business

 

[Chris25]

Needless to say I'm not part of the apparent boys club suggesting Horne is the next Dangerfield. He's neither going to reach those heights, nor play such an offensively geared style of game with a lot of what he does defensively among the ways he impacts games most consistently and what most other analysts (Thunderstruck I can credit for also noticing and volunteering as a component of his own analysis) have so far missed or are wrongly not crediting him for as one of his absolute greatest strengths.

Just because people rightly point out that he’s an excellent offensive talent, it doesn’t mean they don’t notice and appreciate his defensive work. It’s not some big secret you’ve stumbled upon. He’s playing league football as an 18 year old. If his defensive work wasn’t good, he’d be playing against kids his own age.

But there’s a reason why everyone who watches SA football says the same thing.

 

[chopflop]

You're right to get the impression I'd rate Horne/Daicos lower than a lot of guys.

In 2018 I flat out loved the top end. And that should be made very obvious by my rating of Walsh at #4. I was consistent then in saying Lukosius is the best talent I'd seen in the juniors barr none, Rankine the most talented forward I'd seen and Smith the best midfield in the draft, even just edging Walsh. That's how highly I thought of that top end.

Based on my views in 2018, and I'm going to give myself no benefit of hindsight: Lukosius, Rankine, Smith and Walsh all higher than where I rate Daicos and Horne, with that 2-6 group all in the same conversation and hard to separate, with Lukosius the sole player to stand out above the rest in my eyes. Given the ACL to King, I'd have gone Daicos/Horne at 5/6 respectively, just ahead of King who I'd rate ahead of Darcy still again when merging those thoughts from then with this year's crop at this point in time. Though Darcy marginally ahead of Blakey/Caldwell/B.King who would be those next guys down in that merged draft board for an I guess you could call it top-11 as that broader group based on pre-draft views I felt would be elite. And with 8/11 of those from 2018, it shows just how insane that top end is. As per my thoughts at the time, and I wasn't calling it a superdraft then as I didn't see the depth, but I'll still maintain the same wording I used then and describe it as a 'super top-end' and 'the best top end I've seen' as positions I can't see changing for a long time.

Needless to say I'm not part of the apparent boys club suggesting Horne is the next Dangerfield. He's neither going to reach those heights, nor play such an offensively geared style of game with a lot of what he does defensively among the ways he impacts games most consistently and what most other analysts (Thunderstruck I can credit for also noticing and volunteering as a component of his own analysis) have so far missed or are wrongly not crediting him for as one of his absolute greatest strengths.

Gonna bookmark this one
"Boys club" because people hold a contrarian view. Give me a break

 

[McOrist]

All I see is Ricciuto tbh.

Same height.

Similar powerful builds when they were young. Look like they are carved out of granite.

Both played the game with a hard edge around the packs.

Explosive turn of pace and can jump on opponents heads and gain separation above a pack.

Similar hunched erratic fast movements and ball drop too.

I’ve read KM comments on him, I’m convinced he’s either biased or hasn’t watched him. (Only watching the u18 Academy game vs Geelong VFL and forming your opinion on that doesn’t count...)

You can’t watch him for more than 5 minutes and not realise the raw power the kid posses’ and plays with.

The Sloane and Lyons comparisons are laughable from an athletic POV.

Hes a mixture of Dangerfield or Ricciuto, take your pick.

...agree that Horne is something special. He may be the catalyst that helps launch Hawthorn back up the ladder.
Who do you think North will select with pick #2?

 

[Knightmare]

All I see is Ricciuto tbh.

Same height.

Similar powerful builds when they were young. Look like they are carved out of granite.

Both played the game with a hard edge around the packs.

Explosive turn of pace and can jump on opponents heads and gain separation above a pack.

Similar hunched erratic fast movements and ball drop too.

I’ve read KM comments on him, I’m convinced he’s either biased or hasn’t watched him. (Only watching the u18 Academy game vs Geelong VFL and forming your opinion on that doesn’t count...)

You can’t watch him for more than 5 minutes and not realise the raw power the kid posses’ and plays with.

The Sloane and Lyons comparisons are laughable from an athletic POV.

Hes a mixture of Dangerfield or Ricciuto, take your pick.

Horne isn't that strong bodied bull. He's aggressive, but is unlikely to become so physically imposing. He is much more likely to be a medium build midfielder than a barrel chested one like a Ricciuto.

I watched each of Horne's games during the Victorian junior footy break. He doesn't play that game. He'll swoop in and win the ball off the bounce and burst out of there, but there isn't that imposing win the hard ball on the burst and power through. His strength and power continues to be dramatically overstated. It's not a point of difference on a level where he will be one of the best at that component of the game.

For those who watched the game v Norwood, to a much greater extent than the Geelong VFL game, tackling and pressuring was all he could do to impact the game. He was unable to find the footy with more tackles than he had disposals. Jackson Callow was the better player in that game, and that wasn't even one of his better games.

 

[footylover18]

it's so hard trying to make player comps. all players end up being unique in their own right.

we're better off trying to compare styles, attributes when discussing draftees rather than "he's the next X".

I see traits of Dangerfield in Horne's game, but by the same token, those traits were also apparent in Ziebell. It is not sexy to say he is the next Jack Ziebell

7

Jack Ziebell

Age

33

Ht

188cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.1

5star

K

12.8

5star

HB

6.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

4.6

5star

MG

369.5

5star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.6

3star

MG

125.8

2star

D

16.2

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

4.8

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

3.0

5star

, who btw, was as hard at it as Horne is (http://afldraftinfo.blogspot.com/2009/01/jack-ziebell-murray-bushrangersvic.html).

 

[Sphynx]

Horne isn't that strong bodied bull. He's aggressive, but is unlikely to become so physically imposing. He is much more likely to be a medium build midfielder than a barrel chested one like a Ricciuto.

Right. Again, I feel I need to ask the question, have you ever looked at a picture of Jason Horne?

I also have a rough idea of your age and I don't think you were around for West Adelaide 1992 or 1993 1st year Mark Riccuito, he was actually smaller than Horne is now.

I'll help you out.

but there isn't that imposing win the hard ball on the burst and power through.

I have absolutely no idea how you can come to that conclusion by watching any of his games. He doesn't use his power to win a hard ball? Wow.

For those who watched the game v Norwood, to a much greater extent than the Geelong VFL game, tackling and pressuring was all he could do to impact the game. He was unable to find the footy with more tackles than he had disposals. Jackson Callow was the better player in that game, and that wasn't even one of his better games.

I have no idea why you are comparing him to a key forward.

You have brought up the Geelong game again, I feel you are completely biased about this game and keep returning to it for some reason. He was playing in a side patched together over a few days. There's about 2 dozen other examples that counter a single ordinary game that you keep dismissing.

 

[StonesThrow]

I can't remember the stats exactly, but Horne was putting out some big numbers in the u18s both in 2019 and 2020 before heading up to league. It's not as if he's immune to accumulating and having scoreboard impact.

 

[Rusty Beam]

I can't remember the stats exactly, but Horne was putting out some big numbers in the u18s both in 2019 and 2020 before heading up to league. It's not as if he's immune to accumulating and having scoreboard impact.

Yeah, but IMO he hasn’t translated barely any that to SANFL.

For a guy who keep getting described as having no weaknesses he’s shown plenty at that level.

The high flying overhead contested marking and ability to hit the scoreboard hasn’t happened. Neither has the accumulation, which has meant he isn’t able to get proper midfield minutes.

Sure there is the occasional flash, enough for a quick video gif. But it’s not shown consistently (apart from the defensive side of his game).

I’m not buying this playing against men slant either. There have been plenty of 18 year old draftee’s, who following getting drafted were only 6-9month older than Horne is now, and have performed right off the bat in the VFL or other state leagues.

 

[footylover18]

There have been plenty of 18 year old draftee’s, who following getting drafted were only 6-9month older than Horne is now, and have performed right off the bat in the VFL or other state leagues.

yeh, after having done an AFL preseason, are in a professional environment, not having to worry about school etc etc.

compare apples with apples.

which under 18y.o, performed "right off the bat" in the VFL during their draft year?