Preview Ladder Climbing - Rd 14

[PNess]

Here's the weekly ladder preview. It focuses primarily on climbing the ladder short term (how high can we go if we win this week).

Best case - 6th. Doggies' % is too high to drop. Unlikely that Blues and Swans will lose but if either do we'll climb. Scum lose, Demons and Power roll top 4 teams.

Worst case - 9th. We'd lose and Kangas roll Cats and take our spot. Scum win and are a game closer to us. Blues and Swans go a game ahead of us. Top 4 further away. Cats slip to 3rd (not a bad thing).

Likely (according to betting) - 8th. We lose but Kangas lose too. Blues and Swans go a game ahead of us.

Likely (according to us) - 8th. Stay in 8th but a game clear.

 

[matty_hawk]

If the bombers and lions lose, quite possible. then it opens up for us and north. I would think at some stage north would drop off, leaving us in probably the same position as last year (except with us making the 8)

 

[Hawker_Ant]

I think you're being a bit generous with those 60-point margins, lol

 

[killerspud]

I reckon Richmond are a chance at the G against the swans who look lackluster. Geelong won't lose to the kangas at Skilled (they could play the VFL team and still win)- we are the game of the round if we can eek out a win I think we are better than good chance next week against cats.

 

[PNess]

I think you're being a bit generous with those 60-point margins, lol

No doubt, but you're missing the point completely. Even if we win by 60 it shows the effect of changing %. Their % is too strong for us to leap-frog them.

Anything can happen in footy, that's exactly why there are multiple scenarios here....or maybe you didn't scroll down? There is a ladder for 'likely' scenarios.

I'll be sure to fetch my crystal ball and give you the exact results next time.

If you're talking about Eagles v Pies, Cats v Roos, Demons v Saints, Power v Dockers then betting indicates that they are close to getting thumped by 60 pts.

 

[Pessimistic]

Looking at the final nine rounds I note that all the 6 teams from 4 to 9 have a similar difficulty level in the run home.

Out of 9 , freo doggies and carlton rate 5 out of 9 (9 being the 'easiest' score0 and Sydney, Hawks, Roos 4.5 out of 9

This tends to suggest the ladder wont be much different to now - but some teams - carlton sydney hawks roos could be switched completely.

This is complicated by the fact that teams like sydney have 4 easy then 5 hard, hawks have 4 hard then 5 easy.

If we are in a good possy after 4 more rounds (say 2 wins more) then we are looking good. Of course the dogies game is good to win as it may be an 8 pointer

 

[PNess]

Interesting Pessimist. I had a look at the fixture for the last 9 rounds and ranked them based on opponents' premiership points and by opponents' ladder position.

Sorted from easiest to hardest. Let's just say the Hawks will have to earn their spot in the finals! It will help that Swans,Blues,BDogs and Roos are closer to the bottom than the top.

 

[Tas]

If we roll the Cats this week, as unlikely as it sounds, it will be huge.

 

[Hawkers Hero]

If we roll the Cats this week, as unlikely as it sounds, it will be huge.

Very true, but if you lose (more likely) and we win (a chance) then if my math is right we go 1 game and obcene percentage clear in 8th with 8 to play.

Massive chance for the Hawks this week to really cement a spot in the 8 with 2 very losable games in the following 3 weeks (Cats & Saints).