Prediction Least appealing team(s) for the next 5 years?

[Golden_6]

1. West Coast
2. St. Kilda
3. Essendon
4. Melbourne
1. Port Adelaide

This is from a football prospective. I could understand the appeal to playing in Perth under a financial powerhouse.

 

[Chaisa]

I don't know why Port are so prominent here

They have a great core of guys aged 22-26 to build around IMO.

Butters, Rozee, Horne-Francis, Georgiadis, Lukosius, Mead, Burgoyne, Bergman, Lord, Farrell, Drew, Marshall, Ratugolea. Even Powell-Pepper is only 27 and they have more pieces too.

I guess the counter is that you only need to have a piece of two go home (a la Houston, and now whispers about Butters) and it looks a bit thin. But the same could be said for anyone. A lot hinges on how the players transition across to a new coach, or whether any see a bad 2024 and Ken's exit as a chance to break away

Think the assumption is that some of those names (namely Butters and Bergman) are likely to leave and a fair few of those guys feel like 17-25 types on a better list.

But what do people say about assumptions....

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Melbourne and Port

Melbourne's age profile is the wrong side of the league average, without being very good.

Port are reliant on a handful of stars (two of whom sound likely to follow Ken out the door,) and have a group of list-cloggers beyond that. Many of which required trading draft picks that should have been the foundation of their squad - for the equivalent of magic beans.

 

[Mr Meow]

Hang on.

I thought Collingwood were falling off a cliff?

Isn't that starting until 2030?

Geelong have been dominating these sorts of threads for almost a decade (especially 2019-2023), but sadly people have given up.

 

[PJays]

West Coast play in front of a raucous 50,000 people every week. It's the best home advantage in the comp.

They're one of two possible destinations for West Australians wanting to return home.

These are huge "structural advantages".

They've got one of the best young players going around in Reid.

They've never in their entire history had an extended period outside the 8.

I'd be backing them to get there again fairly quickly. 5 years is a long time.

 

[tiger_tough]

Interesting that not one poster has us. If we haven't nailed last years draft we'll be down the bottom for a long, long time.

 

[Wojcinski]

Hang on.

I thought Collingwood were falling off a cliff?

Isn't that starting until 2030?

we're first off the cliff, wait your turn!

 

[Wojcinski]

Interesting that not one poster has us. If we haven't nailed last years draft we'll be down the bottom for a long, long time.

Tigers still have a couple of years before Tassie ruins the drafts to pick some gold

 

[stallon]

Interesting that not one poster has us. If we haven't nailed last years draft we'll be down the bottom for a long, long time.

Tbh anyone having west coast but not Richmond has their head up their arse listening to guys like Kane Cornes or whoever.

Both in similar positions, you guys just have your better mature players in the mid and defence which makes it a little easier to get consistent performances, we have it in the forward line + Gov and yeo who cant get on the park.

I dont think either of our clubs should be in the top 3, after that 3 or so it gets a bit murky.
As you say if your kids come on as you hope then youll be in a great spot, and the eagles are basically the same story but we also have Warner as a good chance as a free agent in 2 years time too.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Geelong have been dominating these sorts of threads for almost a decade (especially 2019-2023), but sadly people have given up.

Realised salary caps don’t exist

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Carlton for mine is clear no.1. Have a look at their squad of 44, apart from Smith there is nothing coming through and their first pick next year is 40+ with acadamy picks. Have too many list holes to compete at the moment.

Port's recruiting has been average for a few years now (JHF aside), sacrifised second rounders to move up for Sinn and Berry, as well as paying big overs for VFL key defenders. They have a few blue chips on their list and were able to get a few decent picks in the draft last year so there is something to work with.

They'd be the top 2 but some others who've featured in this thread.

Essendon have a few good kids coming through - Kako, Caddy, Reid, Hayes, Roberts and their draft hand is strong.

Saints have Phillipou, Nas (or 2 firsts), Travaglia, Taru, Wilson and their first pick.

Eagles are slowly accumulating talent but are long way off. They probably draft the ruckman with pick 1 and aim for a band 1 compo for Allan. If Reid leaves they may get 3 firsts. Like Ginbey, Hewett, Gross, Hough, A.Reid so a bit to work with.

 

[nahnah]

Inspired by Kane on SEN earlier this week, he posed the question to Kingy: "Least appealing teams for the next 5 years?"

His list was...

1. West Coast
2. Port Adelaide
3. St Kilda
4. Carlton
5. GWS

Do you guys agree? Who would be your number 1?

Kane also admitted that things can change quickly, and he had Hawthorn at #1 a few years ago.



I'd probably have to agree with West Coast at number 1. Port would also be up there. I disagree with St Kilda and think they have a fair bit of young talent. Carlton I’d agree with, and GWS I honestly don’t know enough about their youth.

I would flip Saints and Blues + replace giants with demons

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Port Adelaide is going to have an era that will dwarf 2008-2012.

Struggling to see how unless any of Rozee, Butters or JHF leave.

You plug competent KPP talent around that, plus consider Bergman and Burgoyne type talents and at absolute worst you’re looking at a squad that probably finds its level at around what Carlton have produced the last few years as a baseline.

I just don’t see the fall off everyone else anticipates for Port occurring.

 

[Purple Suit]

West Coast play in front of a raucous 50,000 people every week. It's the best home advantage in the comp.

They're one of two possible destinations for West Australians wanting to return home.

These are huge "structural advantages".

They've got one of the best young players going around in Reid.

They've never in their entire history had an extended period outside the 8.

I'd be backing them to get there again fairly quickly. 5 years is a long time.

West Coast don't even have the best Reid in WA and they have had two cracks at it.

Tbh anyone having west coast but not Richmond has their head up their arse listening to guys like Kane Cornes or whoever.

Both in similar positions, you guys just have your better mature players in the mid and defence which makes it a little easier to get consistent performances, we have it in the forward line + Gov and yeo who cant get on the park.

I dont think either of our clubs should be in the top 3, after that 3 or so it gets a bit murky.
As you say if your kids come on as you hope then youll be in a great spot, and the eagles are basically the same story but we also have Warner as a good chance as a free agent in 2 years time too.

You're the most optimistic WC fan out there. You have been terrible for that long that you've forgotten what a decent kid looks like besides 3/4 of a season last year from Reid which he had followed up with a bad one. Go back a few years and the promising kids of Chesser, Culley, Long etc plus Oscar Allen are likely to not be on your list soon. Your experience is about to all retire in the next 2-3 years and you will be left with a North like team where having 5-6 decent 23-24 year olds plus kids isn't enough to be competitive.

Until you can turn over and develop more than you are losing, you are going to struggle. Easily number 1 at the moment as it will take 5 years to just be competitive where some of the teams on the downturn might have a dead cat bounce season.

I do see your point about Richmond, as they aren't likely to be competitive in 5 years either even if they win the occasional game at the start of the year when the kids are fresh.

 

[L_W_P]

Port and West Coast will always have the lure of players coming home. Even if they suck, they are going to be in with a shot at the likes of Wanganeen-Milera, Pickett, Warner etc.

Similar deal with Essendon and Richmond. The lure of playing big games in front of big crowds is a leg up on the smaller Vic clubs.

So my top 3 would be:

St Kilda - Need to nail the drafting and development of every single pick until they get some top end NGA/FS options. Paying free agents like TDK $1.7 mil a season is going to throw their cap completely out of balance.

What do you have to pay NWM to stay? Or Phillipou? Higgins might snag All Australian this year. What does his next contract look like?

Seem to have worked out the spine for the long term - King at FF, Sharman CHF, (TDK in the ruck), Keeler CHB & Caminiti FB - but the lack of A grade mids is still a huge issue.

GWS - Starting to run out of steam with trading previous 1st round kids for future 1st round picks. While they probably won't be awful over the next 5 years, the room for improvement doesn't seem as clear as it did just a few years ago.

North - In the same boat as the Saints in terms of attracting FA options from across the comp. Larkey about to turn 27. Xerri not far behind him. Have a really good group of kids coming up but their two most important pillars are in their prime right now. Will need these top end mids to start performing ASAP to take advantage of this.

 

[stallon]

West Coast don't even have the best Reid in WA and they have had two cracks at it.

Just lol, only the most nuff freo supporters might think this

You're the most optimistic WC fan out there. You have been terrible for that long that you've forgotten what a decent kid looks like besides 3/4 of a season last year from Reid which he had followed up with a bad one. Go back a few years and the promising kids of Chesser, Culley, Long etc plus Oscar Allen are likely to not be on your list soon. Your experience is about to all retire in the next 2-3 years and you will be left with a North like team where having 5-6 decent 23-24 year olds plus kids isn't enough to be competitive.

Cripps is doing ok but far from carrying the team.
Gov hasnt been great this year, and hasnt played the last few weeks. We havent been our worst the last few weeks.
Yeo hasnt played since last year, he is covered/replaced by getting more games into the kids to where our young midfield are mostly all past that 50game mark. Harley and Hewett for example are only 30 odd games in.
Kelly was moved out of the middle because he wasnt performing.
Not losing that much by the older players retiring

In 2-3 years the older kids on the list will be around the 23-24 year old bracket. We will recruit players from other clubs in the meantime as well, plus add more high picks.
If we dont count potential recruits in the rankings in this thread then you cant do it for the Pies either, who are absolutely ****ed in a couple years time if they dont keep getting free agents and whatever else.

Until you can turn over and develop more than you are losing, you are going to struggle. Easily number 1 at the moment as it will take 5 years to just be competitive where some of the teams on the downturn might have a dead cat bounce season.

We are already developing more than we are losing. Our main issue isnt talent right now, its age and experience in a new gameplan, plus just roles being filled by the right types of players who are ready for afl level.
Find a new ruckman and a ball winning inside mid and the lineup changes dramatically. These could be fixed in a single offseason(this year)

There is some very easy to see upside

I do see your point about Richmond, as they aren't likely to be competitive in 5 years either even if they win the occasional game at the start of the year when the kids are fresh.

Glad you at least agree with this, the media has pumped up the Tigers a bit too much, the only thing they have over the eagles is that their senior players play the best roles to carry a young team. Ruck, inside mid and defence

 

[jackster83]

West Coast, sadly.

Seems like they haven't accumulated all that much talent for a team that has been down the bottom for a few years now.

Last year's offseason was dismal. Letting Barass go but keeping Yeo, the Baker trade, etc were all shocking decisions.

Losing Oscar this year will only make things worse in the mid term.

Plus a new coach learning on the fly.

They badly need Hewett to stay on the park and turn into an A grader. Not sure what's going on with Ginbey's development but he looks pretty lost ATM.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Struggling to see how unless any of Rozee, Butters or JHF leave.

You plug competent KPP talent around that, plus consider Bergman and Burgoyne type talents and at absolute worst you’re looking at a squad that probably finds its level at around what Carlton have produced the last few years as a baseline.

I just don’t see the fall off everyone else anticipates for Port occurring.

Port have a young list that needs a few to come on to add depth but has good top end talent.

People are buying into Kane and Gerard bagging Ports list to try and deflect from their mate Ken.

 

[Obeanie1]

Inspired by Kane on SEN earlier this week, he posed the question to Kingy: "Least appealing teams for the next 5 years?"

His list was...

1. West Coast
2. Port Adelaide
3. St Kilda
4. Carlton
5. GWS

Do you guys agree? Who would be your number 1?

Kane also admitted that things can change quickly, and he had Hawthorn at #1 a few years ago.



I'd probably have to agree with West Coast at number 1. Port would also be up there. I disagree with St Kilda and think they have a fair bit of young talent. Carlton I’d agree with, and GWS I honestly don’t know enough about their youth.

Looks at journalists name who wrote the article.

Leaves thread.

Another nothing click bait article.

I wonder who is he talking about?

Appealing to existing players, draftees, supporters........who?

And the next 5 years. Well some clubs have decided to bottom out and load up on quality kids before the Tassie team guts the drafts.

In the next 5 years those teams will benefit whereas teams who have ignored the draft recently to contend will be finishing outside the top 8 and drafting their first pick at pick 20. Good luck rebuilding then.

 

[Obeanie1]

West Coast, sadly.

Seems like they haven't accumulated all that much talent for a team that has been down the bottom for a few years now.

Last year's offseason was dismal. Letting Barass go but keeping Yeo, the Baker trade, etc were all shocking decisions.

Losing Oscar this year will only make things worse in the mid term.

Plus a new coach learning on the fly.

They badly need Hewett to stay on the park and turn into an A grader. Not sure what's going on with Ginbey's development but he looks pretty lost ATM.

What players did the Eagles bring in from the Barrass deal again?

 

[go_the_dockers]

1. West Coast - will finish bottom 4 the next 5 years
2. St Kilda - best young player looking at leaving. Stuck out of the finals.
3. Essendon - Not a great list, not a young list. stuck in no mans land. needs to rebuild.
4. Melbourne - Not a great list, not a young list. stuck in no mans land. needs to rebuild.
5. Carlton - Not a great list, not a young list. stuck in no mans land. needs to rebuild.

Port's top end talent is young and pretty good. They need a mini rebuild but if they get a few picks right they could rebound pretty quickly. If Butters, or ... goes, they should have lots of draft picks like Richmond last year. This is why I have not included them.

 

[Obeanie1]

1. West Coast - will finish bottom 4 the next 5 years
2. St Kilda - best young player looking at leaving. Stuck out of the finals.
3. Essendon - Not a great list, not a young list. stuck in no mans land. needs to rebuild.
4. Melbourne - Not a great list, not a young list. stuck in no mans land. needs to rebuild.
5. Carlton - Not a great list, not a young list. stuck in no mans land. needs to rebuild.

Port's top end talent is young and pretty good. They need a mini rebuild but if they get a few picks right they could rebound pretty quickly. If Butters, or ... goes, they should have lots of draft picks like Richmond last year. This is why I have not included them.

So Eagles finish bottom 4 nine years straight do they?

Lol.

Keep dreaming buddy.

They are about to smash this draft holding their own plus Hawks picks.

In two years the kids will be in the 50 to 100 game zone while current contending clubs lists get older.

Season 2027 the climb back starts in earnest. With Warner as a FA to come in end of 2027.

 

[go_the_dockers]

So Eagles finish bottom 4 nine years straight do they?

Lol.

Keep dreaming buddy.

They are about to smash this draft holding their own plus Hawks picks.

In two years the kids will be in the 50 to 100 game zone where current contending clubs lists get older.

Season 2027 the climb back starts in earnest. With Warner as a FA to come in end of 2027.

How many top 5 picks have you used on players?

Other than Reid who is leaving (based on what I hear on HBG), who are your good young players?

I just don't see it. Especially your midfield looks very weak.

 

[stallon]

West Coast, sadly.

Seems like they haven't accumulated all that much talent for a team that has been down the bottom for a few years now.

Last year's offseason was dismal. Letting Barass go but keeping Yeo, the Baker trade, etc were all shocking decisions.

Losing Oscar this year will only make things worse in the mid term.

Plus a new coach learning on the fly.

They badly need Hewett to stay on the park and turn into an A grader. Not sure what's going on with Ginbey's development but he looks pretty lost ATM.

Not targeting you specifically, but everybody who has west coast at number 1 clearly hasnt looked at the eagles list

 

[stallon]

How many top 5 picks have you used on players?

Other than Reid who is leaving (based on what I hear on HBG), who are your good young players?

I just don't see it. Especially your midfield looks very weak.

How many top 5 picks did you guys use in your rebuild?
Was it 1? or am I misremembering

Our midfield is just very young, of course its not going to stand up to midfields full of mid 20s and older players lmao