Opinion Lions 2020 - 2 steps forward for 1 step back?

[juss]

I really like what the Lions are doing, I think they are well on their way to contend for and possibly win a premiership in the next 5 years.

However after huge strides of improvement and exceeding expectations in 2019, I don't necessarily think their development will be linear and feel they might have a bit of a worse year in terms of ladder position, and face some more difficulty in the home and away. In saying this, I think they can actually win a final, given I think they will finish 5th - 8th and make an EF, and would be a chance of winning that depending on the match up. I wonder if winning a final but still going out in the SF would be seen as improvement on 2019, or not because they didn't get any further.

Still, I have them finishing lower in the H&A and potentially not going further in 2020 for the following reasons, but expecting these to be the platform years for a real assault on the flag 2021-2025.

1. Injury run/depth likely to be tested.
Sides like Richmond capitalised on this in 2017, and the Lions did to some degree in 2019. Their depth was never tested and they had an exceptionally good run with injury. Through most of 2019 it wasn't uncommon to see only a few players on the Lion's injury list. While they did have a few here and there, they were really well managed in this department with player availability, but this is hard to maintain year on year and with a more even or unlucky run, this might be a factor.

2. Retirement of Hodge.
While on field he probably wasn't the same player he has been, he still played 22 games and his leadership and off field presence cannot be understated. This is acknowledged by both Lions and Hawks supporters, players and staff as to his influence beyond his individual output. For a relatively young side without a heap of finals experience, losing Hodge might be bigger than thought.

3. Pressure/expectation.
This is very real now. In 2019 they had a free run, where even make finals was seen as a win and finishing 2nd in the H&A was an exceptional exceeding of expectations. Now these expectations are higher, and with that comes pressure on the players and coaches. How the young side handles this in 2020 particularly if their depth is tested is an interesting area of development.

4. The "unproven" uncertainty. At the end of 2018, everyone tipped big things for the Demons. They had broken their finals duck however we saw how things can change very quickly and there is a lot of uncertainty around these flavor of the month teams that don't have years of proven reliability. I don't expect the Lions to finish bottom 4, but it wouldn't surprise if they might have slightly overachieved at this point in time in 2019, and might regress a little bit in 2020.

This is my opinion/prediction, what are your thoughts on the Lions in 2020?

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

I think its more likely to be 2 steps back or 1 step forward

 

[Elixuh]

2 steps forward for 1 step back, would be ecstatic with finishing third after finishing second last year.

 

[owen87]

I really like what the Lions are doing, I think they are well on their way to contend for and possibly win a premiership in the next 5 years.

However after huge strides of improvement and exceeding expectations in 2019, I don't necessarily think their development will be linear and feel they might have a bit of a worse year in terms of ladder position, and face some more difficulty in the home and away. In saying this, I think they can actually win a final, given I think they will finish 5th - 8th and make an EF, and would be a chance of winning that depending on the match up. I wonder if winning a final but still going out in the SF would be seen as improvement on 2019, or not because they didn't get any further.

Still, I have them finishing lower in the H&A and potentially not going further in 2020 for the following reasons, but expecting these to be the platform years for a real assault on the flag 2021-2025.

1. Injury run/depth likely to be tested.
Sides like Richmond capitalised on this in 2017, and the Lions did to some degree in 2019. Their depth was never tested and they had an exceptionally good run with injury. Through most of 2019 it wasn't uncommon to see only a few players on the Lion's injury list. While they did have a few here and there, they were really well managed in this department with player availability, but this is hard to maintain year on year and with a more even or unlucky run, this might be a factor.

2. Retirement of Hodge.
While on field he probably wasn't the same player he has been, he still played 22 games and his leadership and off field presence cannot be understated. This is acknowledged by both Lions and Hawks supporters, players and staff as to his influence beyond his individual output. For a relatively young side without a heap of finals experience, losing Hodge might be bigger than thought.

3. Pressure/expectation.
This is very real now. In 2019 they had a free run, where even make finals was seen as a win and finishing 2nd in the H&A was an exceptional exceeding of expectations. Now these expectations are higher, and with that comes pressure on the players and coaches. How the young side handles this in 2020 particularly if their depth is tested is an interesting area of development.

4. The "unproven" uncertainty. At the end of 2018, everyone tipped big things for the Demons. They had broken their finals duck however we saw how things can change very quickly and there is a lot of uncertainty around these flavor of the month teams that don't have years of proven reliability. I don't expect the Lions to finish bottom 4, but it wouldn't surprise if they might have slightly overachieved at this point in time in 2019, and might regress a little bit in 2020.

This is my opinion/prediction, what are your thoughts on the Lions in 2020?

Don't think they'll finish Top 4, but think they'll still make finals and likely win one.

A more difficult fixture, potential injuries, whether or not Hodge being out of the side has a major impact, improvement from teams that finished below them in H&A but performed better in finals, plus generally being a young side means there's a fair few question marks.

I think Richmond, West Coast, GWS and Collingwood (in no particular order) are the likely top 4, with Geelong, Bulldogs and Brisbane in the next group.

I'm going with a home EF so 5th or 6th at the end of the H&A season.

 

[juss]

I think its more likely to be 2 steps back or 1 step forward

2 steps forward for 1 step back, would be ecstatic with finishing third after finishing second last year.

Hopefully not getting too caught up in the steps analogy here

I actually think 2019 was the 2 steps forward year, and 2020 might be that slight regression that will lead to further improvements in 2021 and beyond. Just curious to gauge how this view compares to others.

 

[La Dispute]

I’m subscribing to this too. Plenty went right for them last year; injuries, favourable draw etc and an extremely high finish following years in the doldrums is an exception to the usual rule of incremental improvement until the squad properly finds its place as a legitimate contender (if they ever do).

The straight sets finals exit is a more realistic showing of where the squad is at, which is still a 5-8 team. I’d back them to do better in this year’s finals series if they manage to make it however.

Hodge will show to be a fairly big loss to them in the short term too, and places a bit of pressure on Birchall to step into the role and Witherden to up his output as well.

 

[Section 5]

The Lions had an incredible 2019. The fans could not have imagined their team would finish equal top by the end of the H&A season.

We must have a good medical & conditioning team as they have had two relatively injury free seasons. So much so they were even able to get 24 games out of Lincon McCarthy & the last 10 games of the season from Marcus Adams after his couple of games in the NEAFL. These two players were rarely on the field with their previous clubs. It's either good management of the players load or good luck. i prefer to think it's good management. Time will tell.
The fans will hope they can again work their magic with all of Cam Ellis-Yolmen, Callum AhChee & Grant Birchall. All three have had previous injury concerns but all have played in match simulations this preseason.

The Lions have a harder draw this year but still have 11 Gabba games and play the Suns down at Metricon so travel interstate 10 times as usual.
Coach Fagan has mentioned that they "could improve again this year but not win as many games as in 2019". "All games are hard to win" says Fagan.

The following group of young players that opposing teams and fans are getting to know are : Hugh McCluggage (age 22), Jarrod Berry (22), Cam Rayner (20), Charlie Cameron (25), Darcy Gardiner (24), Alex Witherden (21), Eric Hipwood (22). All these players should make big improvements in their game from now on. Their are others but less known to opposition fans.

The depth at the Lions in years prior to 2018 had been a big issue but not so anymore. Their is now a large group of AFL ready players in the NEAFL that can make the grade at AFL level. The NEAFL has long been a poor second cousin to other states leagues like the VFL etc. With a few changes in the NEAFL over the last couple of years see the Lions, Swans, Suns & GWS play each other 3 times during the year plus any finals if they make it. So that has made the comp a bit better for all concerned. The Lions NEAFL side went through undefeated in 2019.

Luke Hodge's leadership in the back line and in general is hard to replace. But the players have had 2 years to learn as much as they can from a legend of the game plus Hodge is still employed by the Club. Grant Birchall has the experience in defence but i have no idea about his leadership qualities. Someone always fills the void when good players/leaders leave.

I can't see the Lions falling away like Melbourne did in 2019.

As a Lions fan i will be happy to make the 8 preferably top 6 as a home final would be nice.
To win a final would be great. But it's a long way to September.

Maybe 2020 for the Lions will be one step forward in overall improvement, but 2 to 4 steps back in ladder position.

 

[mopsy]

I dont get this premise that they are extremely young.
They actually fit ideal criteria for challenging take for instance their qualiefing final age and games played.
25yrs 152gms with 2362 games behind them.
It had 11 players with 100 games or more. it had 6 players with between 50 and 99 games and just 5 players with less than 50 games, two of whom were 25yo and 26yo.

I think people fall into the trap of looking at the age of the overall list instead of the age of their best 22 - 28 players which is markedly different.

If they stay healthy i can see no reason why they cant challenge for a top 4 spot and from there anything can happen.

 

[skilts]

It seems likely that the biggest problem they'll face will be that they will now be 'the hunted'. Coaches of other teams will pay far more attention to them.

If Stef Martin were to 'fall over', I'm not sure they'd be able to cover his loss.

Otherwise, as long as they don't get ahead of themselves, a la Melbourne, they have every chance of being contenders again.

Having been a Fitzroy supporter, I never get ahead of myself where footy's concerned. Not that it would make any difference to team's performance if I did.

 

[Supercoach Bargain]

The fixture will be a bit harder this time around. Hodge is a loss, but they have a good, deep and balaced list. They won't surprise anyone now.