Preview Lions v Dogs Marvel Stadium Thursday 30th March 6.20 pm Brisbane Time

[Section 5]

Giff from Jivlain possibly being our own big footy Jivlain.

Preview up early as the game is on Thursday with teams announced Wednesday 5.30 pm Brisbane time.

Last Week - Lions
What a relief to get a good win against a very good opponent in Melbourne at The Gabba.
Every player lifted from the previous week. That was expected but still had to actually happen.

A change of attitude, Berry to inside midfield along with other adjustments mainly to players attending CBA's. This was a big reason why we won the game.
Along with adding 2 experienced players in Zorko & Fort over the younger Tunstill & Robertson. They will get more games during the season.
Coleman missed via concussion and replaced by a bigger bodied Joyce.
Joyce’s first game for the Lions was solid. Played his role which is all we required.

Last Week - Dogs
The Dogs midfield got spanked by a slick Saints group.
This is reflected in having only 37, I50’s for the game. Last year the Dogs had the lowest I50’s in the AFL being an average of 43.
Difficult to get a decent score when these numbers are low.
Quarter by quarter goals scored by the Dogs: 0,4,1,0
They lost by 41 this week and 50 the week before
Lions should expect a big turnaround from the Dogs this week, especially early.

Lions Recent History v Dogs
Since 2019 it is 3 wins each
Dogs won twice at Mars Stadium. Margin 16 & 19 points. Also, a SF 1 point win at The Gabba. How could we forget that one.
Lions 3 wins all at the Gabba. Margin 41 (R16 in 2022), 24, & 18 points.

Injuries From Weekend - Unofficial
Lions: Berry shoulder? - Payne wrist?
Dogs: Nil reported

CBA’s (Center Bounce Attendances) - Set Up Difference From Round 1
The Lions finally decided our wings needed a change. To achieve this Berry went to inside mid.

McCluggage. Only spent 19% at CBA’s compared to 70% v the Port game.
Same with young Will Ashcroft attending just 26% compared to 47%
Staying on this stat, going with 2 rucks meant Oscar’s CBA’s were just 65% down from 90%
Fort covered the difference being 35%
Berry 71% compared to zero in round 1.

Dunkley however increased his to 90% from 70%
Some other interesting changes but will leave that for you to see on the chart below.

These big CBA changes led to wing attendance changes. Below percentages taken from JoBlitz wing attendance thread.
McCluggage 27.4%, Ashcroft 25.8%, Wilmot 19.3%, Zorko 11.3%, Bailey 9.7%, Gunston 6.5%

Below chart, and heat map images are taken from DFS Australia.
Note the numbers under column headings 1 & 2 on the chart are percentages.
TOT = Total actual attendances for 2 games and is not percentage.
AVG = Average percentage, in this case for 2 games.

Heat maps from the Demons game for McCluggage & Zorko

DEF 50 <---> FWD 50

Hugh McCluggage V Demons

DEF 50 <---> FWD 50
Dayne Zorko v Demons


Midfield & KPP Matchups

Dogs midfield last week: Bont, Macrae, Liberatore, Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

then Baker, Williams, Scott - Ruck English mostly.
Lions midfield last week: Neale, Dunkley, Berry, then Ashcroft, Zorko, McCluggage, Bailey, Wilmot - Ruck Oscar & Fort.

Lions KP Forwards: Daniher, Hipwood, Gunston.
Dogs KP Defenders: Liam Jones

19

Liam Jones

Age

33

Ht

199cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.4

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

134.5

2star

D

7.6

2star

K

6.1

3star

HB

1.4

1star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.4

2star

MG

116.3

2star

D

9.4

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

, Keath, Bruce, (maybe Richards & Crozier help as they have injuries).

Lions KP Defenders: Andrews, Payne, Joyce.
Dogs KP Forwards: Naughton, Ugle-Hagen, Darcy.
Note Darcy was subbed off uninjured for a midfielder just before ¾ time.

Lots of other matchups around the ground but won’t go there.

Injured or VFL Players Missing - Possible Inclusions
Lions: Ah Chee, Answerth, Lyons & Prior all played VFL. Coleman Concussion? then Gardiner very unlikely.
Dogs: Ryan Gardiner, Lobb, Treloar, Johannison, then very unlikely R Smith, Weightman, Vandermeer.

To give us a better chance, i hope Lobb, Gardiner & Treloar need another week recovery time.
However grumpy Beverage mentioned some players may be a chance to return.
These players improve their side considerably.

Interesting Observations On TOG %

Demons Game v Last Years Average
Rich…… 67% down from 80%
Cameron 67% down from 86%
Gunston. 68% down from 86% (Hawks)
Dunkley.. 69% down from 84% (Dogs)
Zorko…...54% down from 72% but he had a good reason.

Zorko possibly BOG but was subbed off. No apparent injury thank heavens.
22 disposals, 9 marks, 4 tackles, 2 goals, 6 score involvements and possibly 0 Brownlow votes.

Summary
We play away which is always hard to win, but good sides need to win interstate.
The Dogs have their backs against the wall, so we need to hold them off in that first quarter.
Apply great pressure like the Saints did and we should wear them down.

Be interesting to see if we go with 2 rucks v Dogs. I think we might in case Lobb returns.
Dogs only have 1 ruck in Tim English.

Need to bank this win as the Easter Thursday Pies game will be much harder.
Lions by 24+

Reminder
I hope dianod won't mind me mentioning this.
More writers needed for game previews.
The next vacant spot is North Melbourne at the time of writing this one. Quite a few other spots available
Anyone can have a go. Do it in your own style. Go to the below link and put your name down.

Preview writers needed - 2023! (More needed!) | BigFooty Forum

 

[Viceregal]

Hopefully they will come out snarling and look back at the end of the game wondering how they went down without a whimper. <-- the Dogs I mean of course

 

[Milux]

Dogs midfield is slow and look cooked. We just bashed up on the "best" midfield in the comp so as long as we keep up that attitude that will go along way to winning.

 

[bato]

Marvel still gives me nightmares. Our record is good but don’t think we’ve ever come close to playing our best there!

 

[rye]

if payne can keep naughton engaged andrews should have a field day

 

[Section 5]

Marvel still gives me nightmares. Our record is good but don’t think we’ve ever come close to playing our best there!

Since we became relevant in 2019 our record is good as you say.
Won 5 of the 6 games since 2019.
Wins - 2022 Bombers, Saints - 2021 Pies, Blues - 2020 no games - 2019 North, Saints.
Lost to the Blues by 15 points in 2019.

We would normally play the Dogs at Marvel but were sent to Mars (Ballarat) for 2 losses in 2020 & 2021.

 

[BrizzyBandit]

No changes… unless injuries

 

[McIvor]

No idea where my son found it but it is the Brisbane Lions 600th game this week

He wrote down that we've won 290, lost 303 and drawn 6 and subtely said that we should be abpve 50% winning % by end of year - love the optomism

 

[CarterS]

Dogs be smashed in the media all week and will come out super fired up.

 

[Berrygood]

Travelling with a 6day turnaround against a team that needs a big game and a coach that's not our biggest fan, it won't be easy. I expect it to have a bit of niggle.

I'm sticking with the same team unless there's injuries. I'm not tempted to bring Kiddy back in a hurry. Happy to be cautious with head knocks.
Short turnaround, we don't want to change too much unnecessarily.

We turned the 2 ruck, 3 tall fwds into an advantage when Gawn went down. English is no Grundy, I think it can be an advantage again. Joyce earnt another run and the backs looked much more settled with him. The midfield mix was right, even the wing rotations were good. I don't remember Langdon having as much influence as he's had in the past. And the forwards were very productive.

Same team, same attitude, same game, same result. I hope. The first 3.5 qtrs v Melb needs to be our standard. Make that more consistent.

 

[Kernel Kurtz]

We need to play close to the manner we played the Demons.
Short kicks with a bit of overlappiing run to work our way up the field then put it inside 50.
Would be nice to see us do that and run the footy right in to goal as well.
Thought our run overall was great v demons, we need to bring that.
Joyce looked very good , bit of dash about him and defended well ,would like to keep in.
Not sure who Kiddy replaces , if I was honest I'd probably go Rich and keep Mckenna in.

 

[Strato]

Watched the Dogs /Saints game. Two things we need for 4 quarters is to bring Thursday Night against the Dogs is: 1. PRESSURE and 2. MINDSET.
1. The Saints mentality/pressure against the Dogs was fantastic and really put the Dogs off their game through strong tackling, etc.
2. Against Port our Mindset was not there and showed and the last 12 minutes against Melbourne was very disappointing but prior to the blackout we looked very good heading for a great win against good opposition.

As we all know football is played above the shoulders, so therefore these two factors must be intrenched into out game.

When entrenched our game plan and style will become stronger.

At present we have question marks looming over us - Are we good enough, do we have the cattle. Can we put sides away for big wins. We don't struggle against weaker teams. Can we beat stronger teams away. When the pressure is on us, Can we respond to that pressure. Do we work hard enough. Is the mental approach there. To be a contender at the end of the season we must have that belief we are definitely good enough.

 

[Thomasno]

Travelling with a 6day turnaround against a team that needs a big game and a coach that's not our biggest fan, it won't be easy. I expect it to have a bit of niggle.

I'm sticking with the same team unless there's injuries. I'm not tempted to bring Kiddy back in a hurry. Happy to be cautious with head knocks.
Short turnaround, we don't want to change too much unnecessarily.

We turned the 2 ruck, 3 tall fwds into an advantage when Gawn went down. English is no Grundy, I think it can be an advantage again. Joyce earnt another run and the backs looked much more settled with him. The midfield mix was right, even the wing rotations were good. I don't remember Langdon having as much influence as he's had in the past. And the forwards were very productive.

Same team, same attitude, same game, same result. I hope. The first 3.5 qtrs v Melb needs to be our standard. Make that more consistent.

IF kiddy is good I’d bring him in for maybe Wilmot, but that would be the only change.

Stiff for Wilmot, thought he played well, but not sure who else would come out

 

[Section 5]

I hope the club give Coleman another week off, even if declared fit to play.
Keep him fresh for the Pies game.
The other alternative is, if declared fit, use him as the sub.
Hopefully no injuries and just inject him into the game sometime in the last quarter.

 

[Nathan Barley]

I hope the club give Coleman another week off, even if declared fit to play.
Keep him fresh for the Pies game.
The other alternative is, if declared fit, use him as the sub.
Hopefully no injuries and just inject him into the game sometime in the last quarter.

Fresh or rusty?

 

[Section 5]

Fresh or rusty?

I don't think AFL players get rusty after a 2-week break.
He will be training.

 

[martinson]

I'm really excited by McKenna, especially that he uses his pace to great advantage and has a plan when he surges forward. Despite what was said pre season his disposal is excellent. Marks well ,kicks well. Seemed to defend well when he had to. Also a fan of Wilmot , doing some very mature/team things last week. The 2 rucks is also a winner for us overall.

No change for me. Kiddy can come back the week after. Ah Chee next cab off the rank after him. On last week's performance no one in the team is under pressure though we have to back it up against the Dogs who could be frothing at the mouth. Still they have to improve a heap and we need to go backwards to lose. I suppose it could happen.

 

[Section 5]

I'm really excited by McKenna, especially that he uses his pace to great advantage and has a plan when he surges forward. Despite what was said pre season his disposal is excellent. Marks well ,kicks well. Seemed to defend well when he had to. Also a fan of Wilmot , doing some very mature/team things last week. The 2 rucks is also a winner for us overall.

No change for me. Kiddy can come back the week after. Ah Chee next cab off the rank after him. On last week's performance no one in the team is under pressure though we have to back it up against the Dogs who could be frothing at the mouth. Still they have to improve a heap and we need to go backwards to lose. I suppose it could happen.

Regarding McKenna he has improved with each week he has been in the hot Brisbane weather.
Throw in the 2 years away from AFL and coming to a new team, it was always going to take some time to adjust.

I watched him in the early training days, and he was struggling big time.
Then in the training game sims he improved with each one, but nothing to write home about.
improvement again in the AFL preseason matches and again in the 2 premiership matches to date.
I am sure he will be happy when the weather cools down some.
We have not seen the best of McKenna yet so that is encouraging.

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

Having trouble with Ticketec.

Put my members numbers in and there seems to be no way I can get a genral admission ticket without paying more.

Rang the club, was put on hold and then told to leave a message.

I want a membership plastic card

 

[On the quiet]

if payne can keep naughton engaged andrews should have a field day

Yeap probably give Payne the challenging matchup on Naughton (who has been problematic for both Andrews and Adams) , and Harris should hopefully have a field day.

 

[dlanod]

I want a membership plastic card

As someone involved in IT/software development... I completely agree.

 

[p4p1]

It would be really harsh to drop anyone from last week. I have to assume Kiddy comes back in, I'm just not sure at who's expense. I get why people are saying Willmot but both play so differently that it isn't like for like.

 

[Section 5]

It would be really harsh to drop anyone from last week. I have to assume Kiddy comes back in, I'm just not sure at who's expense. I get why people are saying Willmot but both play so differently that it isn't like for like.

It is a good position for the club to be in when bringing a player back in is a hard choice.

 

[p4p1]

It is a good position for the club to be in when bringing a player back in is a hard choice.

Especially when last year that player was a lock for top 22.

 

[Section 5]

Assuming no injuries and Coleman declared fit to play
I would not be too concerned if they keep the 2 rucks and Coleman sub. So, Dev misses out.
Or include Coleman, and Fort the sub just in case Lobb is named and he becomes an issue on the day.

I would not drop Wilmot as he is improving in a new position for him.

Another option is Rich could get that "managed" next to his name in the outs. Only round 3 but it is a long preseason.
i still think Rich is best 22 but it is a long season and there will be other injuries throughout 2023.