List Mgmt. Luke Jackson - Yay or Nay?

[oldgoat]

I'm a ram

I just the water carrier..can cut oranges too.
Keep hydrated.
It matters.

 

[theGav56]

I think pre-covid most clubs top 20 would have been similar, but in 2021 and 2022 there's some real opportunities for recruiters and no such thing as a "reach" this year.

Names may have been similar but there would be significant difference in the order I think.

Much talk about drafts are about tiers of similar quality within a draft. There may be consensus within those tiers but very different desirability for individual clubs. I think that's a bit of what happened with both Jackson and Amiss. Both taken within their tier but perhaps towards the top of their range.

 

[arsesmart]

What's your definition of a slight reach?

I would've thought a "slight reach" fits on the expected side of one standard deviation from the mean.

 

[theGav56]

I would've thought a "slight reach" fits on the expected side of one standard deviation from the mean.

Ooh good answer. But I don't quite understand it. I understand the mean. But what would the expected side of one standard deviation mean?

 

[Taylor]

Standard deviation of the draft numbers 1 to 65 is 18.8

So he was half a standard deviation away from pick #1 and being a second round pick.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Standard deviation of the draft numbers 1 to 65 is 18.8

So he was half a standard deviation away from pick #1 and being a second round pick.

If you use the draft points for each position rather than the position number you will get an accurate weighted mean and standard deviation.

 

[Taylor]

If you use the draft points for each position rather than the position number you will get an accurate weighted mean and standard deviation.

Excellent point

 

[GingerDocker]

 

[Taylor]

Ok, using the points the standard deviation is 626 points which is about pick #30 worth

He was taken at #8 which is 1551 so a standard deviation is between pick #4 and about pick #20

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Ok, using the points the standard deviation is 626 points which is about pick #30 worth

He was taken at #8 which is 1551 so a standard deviation is between pick #4 and about pick #20

That was quick. Impressive.

 

[freo84]

Quality show!

 

[Nodgey]

Names may have been similar but there would be significant difference in the order I think.

Much talk about drafts are about tiers of similar quality within a draft. There may be consensus within those tiers but very different desirability for individual clubs. I think that's a bit of what happened with both Jackson and Amiss. Both taken within their tier but perhaps towards the top of their range.

You just might have perfectly described a 'slight reach'. You're doing their work for them, Gav!

 

[King Huskii]

So Amiss was a slight reach

Dam Walls! I wish you didn't pick him at 6 and instead picked him at our next pick.

 

[theGav56]

You just might have perfectly described a 'slight reach'. You're doing their work for them, Gav!

Just discussion. But I think a reach is taking someone out of their tier. The tier is their predicted range if you like.

 

[Dockeroo]

I would say that someone like Angus Sheldrick was a “reach” by Sydney last year at pick 17. Four picks before Matt Johnson. That’s not saying he won’t be a very good player. But consensus opinion before that draft had him selected after the likes of JVR and Matt Johnson and several others.
Reach and slider in draft terms is a bit of a vague concept particularly after pick 10 or so but probably the best way to know if a team reached in the draft is look at the reaction on Bigfooty in the following days.
Which history repeatedly shows means * all.
I trust walls and co well ahead of any big footy experts but it’s fun to read and speculate before the draft.

Incidentally one of the few CONFIRMED sliders in the national draft in recent years is actually on our list - Hayden Young

26

Hayden Young

Age

23

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.4

3star

MG

160.0

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

2star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.4

2star

MG

160.0

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

MG

160.0

3star

!

I remember the day after 2019 ND, all recruiters were asked who would they have taken at pick 3 after Rowell and Anderson.
Approx half said Hayden Young

26

Hayden Young

Age

23

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.4

3star

MG

160.0

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

2star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.4

2star

MG

160.0

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

MG

160.0

3star

, he was the clear pick 3 preference for the most clubs but slid to 7.
Lucky us I guess

Who would you have taken at pick No.3? We ask the recruiters

AFL.com.au canvassed recruiters and list managers from 12 clubs about who they would have taken if they held the third pick

www.afl.com.au

 

[Arcassius]

Life imitating art in here

 

[Quay Club]

I would say that someone like Angus Sheldrick was a “reach” by Sydney last year at pick 17. Four picks before Matt Johnson. That’s not saying he won’t be a very good player. But consensus opinion before that draft had him selected after the likes of JVR and Matt Johnson and several others.
Reach and slider in draft terms is a bit of a vague concept particularly after pick 10 or so but probably the best way to know if a team reached in the draft is look at the reaction on Bigfooty in the following days.
Which history repeatedly shows means * all.
I trust walls and co well ahead of any big footy experts but it’s fun to read and speculate before the draft.

Incidentally one of the few CONFIRMED sliders in the national draft in recent years is actually on our list - Hayden Young!

I remember the day after 2019 ND, all recruiters were asked who would they have taken at pick 3 after Rowell and Anderson.
Approx half said Hayden Young, he was the clear pick 3 preference for the most clubs but slid to 7.
Lucky us I guess

Who would you have taken at pick No.3? We ask the recruiters

AFL.com.au canvassed recruiters and list managers from 12 clubs about who they would have taken if they held the third pick

www.afl.com.au

The comments about Young and Jackson are very accurate three years on.

And now we have both!

 

[King Huskii]

Life imitating art in here

I still prefer the ol reach around

 

[King Huskii]

The comments about Young and Jackson are very accurate three years on.

And now we have both!

And Young

 

[freo_leo29]

I didn't ask you a question, and your opinion is fully articulated. ad nauseum. I asked a specific poster a question about their post. There is only one person who can answer that, and they seem to have gone dark.

Well its an obvious answer so I figured I'd chime in, being an internet forum ya see

 

[freo_leo29]

I would say that someone like Angus Sheldrick was a “reach” by Sydney last year at pick 17. Four picks before Matt Johnson. That’s not saying he won’t be a very good player. But consensus opinion before that draft had him selected after the likes of JVR and Matt Johnson and several others.
Reach and slider in draft terms is a bit of a vague concept particularly after pick 10 or so but probably the best way to know if a team reached in the draft is look at the reaction on Bigfooty in the following days.
Which history repeatedly shows means * all.
I trust walls and co well ahead of any big footy experts but it’s fun to read and speculate before the draft.

Incidentally one of the few CONFIRMED sliders in the national draft in recent years is actually on our list - Hayden Young!

I remember the day after 2019 ND, all recruiters were asked who would they have taken at pick 3 after Rowell and Anderson.
Approx half said Hayden Young, he was the clear pick 3 preference for the most clubs but slid to 7.
Lucky us I guess

Who would you have taken at pick No.3? We ask the recruiters

AFL.com.au canvassed recruiters and list managers from 12 clubs about who they would have taken if they held the third pick

www.afl.com.au

I'd probably put Sheldrick in the bolter category, taken quite a bit earlier than most expected

 

[Ysaye]

I really don't understand the whole reach on Amiss thing; personally I thought Amiss at the time would go at the latest pick 10.

Twomey commented at the time though that Essendon would be "hard pressed" not to take him (in October 2021) if he got past Freo and West Coast. He also had him at Pick 11 in his "power rankings" (which tries to collate all the clubs views on rankings) around the same time:

The top draft prospects Essendon could select with pick 11

"You’d be pretty hard-pressed to pass him up from a Bombers perspective.”

www.sen.com.au

Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' September ranking

Draft guru Cal Twomey reveals his September rankings of the 2021 draft pool

www.afc.com.au

Twomey then later picked Amiss to go at our pick 8 in his phantom draft:

Cal Twomey's 2021 Phantom AFL Draft: Top 30, late picks, club whispers

Who will your club take in this year's NAB AFL Draft? AFL.com.au's draft guru makes the call

www.fremantlefc.com.au

Even within Bigfooty circles Amiss was around where he went; PMBangers had him at Pick 10. So did Chris25. ModernArtillery had him at 6 after the championships.

The only reference I can think for him being a reach is in comparison to the Bigfooty phantom draft he slide to 16 where Modern Artillery though he was getting real value. Chris25 overlooked him at 8 and 10 for Josh Rachele (which on revealed form is understandable) and NWM (whom he rated at 8).

Nothing in any of this suggests a reach; he was around the mark that he was taken.

 

[King Huskii]

I really don't understand the whole reach on Amiss thing; personally I thought Amiss at the time would go at the latest pick 10.

Twomey commented at the time though that Essendon would be "hard pressed" not to take him (in October 2021) if he got past Freo and West Coast. He also had him at Pick 11 in his "power rankings" (which tries to collate all the clubs views on rankings) around the same time:

The top draft prospects Essendon could select with pick 11

"You’d be pretty hard-pressed to pass him up from a Bombers perspective.”

www.sen.com.au

Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' September ranking

Draft guru Cal Twomey reveals his September rankings of the 2021 draft pool

www.afc.com.au

Twomey then later picked Amiss to go at our pick 8 in his phantom draft:

Cal Twomey's 2021 Phantom AFL Draft: Top 30, late picks, club whispers

Who will your club take in this year's NAB AFL Draft? AFL.com.au's draft guru makes the call

www.fremantlefc.com.au

Even within Bigfooty circles Amiss was around where he went; PMBangers had him at Pick 10. So did Chris25. ModernArtillery had him at 6 after the championships.

The only reference I can think for him being a reach is in comparison to the Bigfooty phantom draft he slide to 16 where Modern Artillery though he was getting real value. Chris25 overlooked him at 8 and 10 for Josh Rachele (which on revealed form is understandable) and NWM (whom he rated at 8).

Nothing in any of this suggests a reach; he was around the mark that he was taken.

He simply wasn't a reach

 

[arsesmart]

"Reach" is just a fairly wobbly concept that can mean any number of things depending on who's saying it, who's hearing it and what they're feeling at the time. As with almost all categorisations they become more problematic at the edges.

Unless there's a really specific formula/rules they mostly operate on the laws of consensus.

"Reach" becomes an especially hazy concept given draft picks will vary in currency according to a fairly wide spread of variables. There's available information across the clubs, who's been picked, the needs of the club, what other picks they have this year (and maybe even the last few years), etc etc.

 

[eastfreo75]

I consider a reach when a club picks a player for need when others were so much better.