Racing May Daily Thread - Melham’s Multi Madness

[iluvparis]

Well our pool of quality horses is decreasing by the week....

Moderate 3yo who would have been repeteadly flogged against older horses most likely as a low weight non-entity in the cups. No great loss

 

[iluvparis]

It's all about competing for the punting dollar though.

I do wonder what the MRC are proposing with the rest of their carnival though as there are a lot of logical lead up races from P B Lawrence day to ultimately Guineas day

Could be a good change - races like the PB Lawerence and Craiglee should not be anywhere near legitimate choices for a Cups horse if our trainers were fair dinkum. They might actually be nice 1400/1600m races now without half a dozen plodders in them.

 

[HeathySure]

Could be a good change - races like the PB Lawerence and Craiglee should not be anywhere near legitimate choices for a Cups horse if our trainers were fair dinkum. They might actually be nice 1400/1600m races now without half a dozen plodders in them.

We will have fields of 3 and 4 in the WFA races and all the moving of the CC will do is weaken both the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup because i am sure some horses will concentrate on one rather than both like in the past. Caulfield Cup will probablty be country cup class
RAcing has done some stupid things but if they do this its probably the most stupid move in history. But hopefully it will only be for one year.

 

[iluvparis]

We will have fields of 3 and 4 in the WFA races and all the moving of the CC will do is weaken both the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup because i am sure some horses will concentrate on one rather than both like in the past. Caulfield Cup will probablty be country cup class
RAcing has done some stupid things but if they do this its probably the most stupid move in history. But hopefully it will only be for one year.

Wut? A greater gap between the races is actually better for any reasonable trainer plus an added benefit for the race is that if internationals are allowed to come you will definitely have seen how they have gone already which makes it a much better betting proposition. And what 'other' races are the CC types heading off to after the Melbourne Cup anyway? Having a week-week and a half extra should actually make it EASIER for horses to try and run in both not harder.

The only negative is that it loses its role as a Cup qualifier but as we have seen in recent years the winner generally hasn't been running in it anyway. The only horses who don't go for this now are those who bet burnt out at Flemington - but you may also pick up Cox Plate runners who no longer need to pick between the two.

Geez racing types have their head in their sand about a lot of things some time.

 

[FallingLiefs]

The problem is the 2 mile then -800m. Horses may puncture at the 2 mile and just not make it, or are big queries to make distance so simply don’t go there as it would affect their CC hopes. It doesn’t suit Australian racing at all.

We need 2 miles to be the GF.

 

[frantelle]

The problem is the 2 mile then -800m. Horses may puncture at the 2 mile and just not make it, or are big queries to make distance so simply don’t go there as it would affect their CC hopes. It doesn’t suit Australian racing at all.

We need 2 miles to be the GF.

You might have 1 or 2 bypass the MC and make the CC their grand final.

Aside from that you're right though, its difficult to see many horses backing up after the MC and performing well in a CC.

 

[iluvparis]

You might have 1 or 2 bypass the MC and make the CC their grand final.

Aside from that you're right though, its difficult to see many horses backing up after the MC and performing well in a CC.

This also seems a myth - tons of horses have been able to back up from the Melbourne Cup and run perfectly fine at Sandown off an even shorter break

#headsinthesand

 

[frantelle]

This also seems a myth - tons of horses have been able to back up from the Melbourne Cup and run perfectly fine at Sandown off an even shorter break

#headsinthesand

9 MC horses ran in the CC last year (no idea if this is high / low for a given year).

Unless we have a terribly run MC (2019 v2.0), it would be hard to imagine that 9 horses could then go into a CC after a blow out over 3200m. Last year no problems given the speed.

If we get a genuine tempo in the MC, how many horses could realistically give a genuine effort at 2400m a few weeks later?

 

[iluvparis]

9 MC horses ran in the CC last year (no idea if this is high / low for a given year).

Unless we have a terribly run MC (2019 v2.0), it would be hard to imagine that 9 horses could then go into a CC after a blow out over 3200m. Last year no problems given the speed.

If we get a genuine tempo in the MC, how many horses could realistically give a genuine effort at 2400m a few weeks later?

Tons - Zipping did it year after year - the record of horses that have run in the Melbourne Cup that run at Sandown is outstanding - even if they get beat a furlong at Flemington

 

[FallingLiefs]

Tons.

What is the average zipping field? 6 horses with average age 9yo and 4L inferior to the cup?


No mile and a halfer with a good profile will run at 2 mile if it's questionable they get it and are top 3 in market for caulfield. If they had run in the CC they would "have a shot at the stumps" over 2 mile. We lose every one of those horses.

 

[frantelle]

Tons - Zipping did it year after year - the record of horses that have run in the Melbourne Cup that run at Sandown is outstanding - even if they get bet a furlong at Flemington

But using last year as an example, will 9 horses go from a MC into a CC? How many that run in an MC will back up into a CC and Sandown (whenever that will be)?

If I were RV I would be worried that no internationals means we have to rely on our staying stars (very shallow) to run in each of those 3 races

 

[iluvparis]

But using last year as an example, will 9 horses go from a MC into a CC? How many that run in an MC will back up into a CC and Sandown (whenever that will be)?

If I were RV I would be worried that no internationals means we have to rely on our staying stars (very shallow) to run in each of those 3 races

If we have no international it doesn't really matter as both races will be absolute puss anyway. So if this is a 1 year thing maybe it doesn't matter anyway.

I think a ton more will back up than people think as evidenced by the fact plenty back up and run well off a shorter break at a middling Sandown meet under the old structure.

And who cares what happens to the Sandown carnival in this set up - irrelvant.

 

[frantelle]

If we have no international it doesn't really matter as both races will be absolute puss anyway. So if this is a 1 year thing maybe it doesn't matter anyway.

I think a ton more will back up than people think as evidenced by the fact plenty back up and run well off a shorter break at a middling Sandown meet under the old structure.

And who cares what happens to the Sandown carnival in this set up - irrelvant.

The Sandown carnival is governed by the MRC, so maybe they bring that forward as a potential lead up to the MC...?

Hard to know how it all plays out without a crystal ball.

 

[balmainforever]

tend to think that Sandown and caulfield switch dates. and maybe ballarat is now before caulfield

 

[iluvparis]

tend to think that Sandown and caulfield switch dates. and maybe ballarat is now before caulfield

Maybe be throw a free ticket into the Caulfield Cup at Ballarat if they do that - lots of options available.

 

[AvantGardener]

Danny OBrien very hesitant to run the current fave in MC off the back of switching the Cups around. RC will most likely just go CC.

 

[iluvparis]

FALTONIUS the fave in the first at Hammo is apparently Bryce Stanaway's shortst priced runner since 2013

Has to be one of the worst maiden's you'll ever see - potential CC line up under the new date perhaps?

 

[iluvparis]

Interesting ride on the topy at Newcastle there after it was completely out the gate in betting.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Danny OBrien very hesitant to run the current fave in MC off the back of switching the Cups around. RC will most likely just go CC.

Yeah like I said the good profile CC horses that eventually go into the MC as you might as well try because it's already end of prep will be gone.

I don't doubt we will be left with a Lloyd army and Who Shot thebarman types in the CC instead of sandown.


Would Best Solution, Mer De Glace, Mongolian Khan start in the MC first if given chance? all tried to back up into MC at short enough quotes. It's the good horses we will miss. Hell even horses like Fame Game added interest at Caulfield. No way we see a horse of that profile go back to a CC after a MC or Protectionist.

 

[FallingLiefs]

The only positive will be International CP horses will try both CP/CC skipping the MC. So ultimate end game is weakening the MC regardless. Where does that leave the Mackinnon? would need more time to think all the flow throughs but can't see this benefiting both MC and CC.

Gut feel would be leave the CP, Give CC stakes day or sandown and MC end of Nov with Mackinnon 3 days before but they've ruled that out.

WFA lead ups stay as is, Handicappers run in WFA with longer prep or work through the handicaps Bart Cummings, Herbert Power, JRA.

 

[iluvparis]

FALTONIUS the fave in the first at Hammo is apparently Bryce Stanaway's shortst priced runner since 2013

Has to be one of the worst maiden's you'll ever see - potential CC line up under the new date perhaps?

 

[iluvparis]

Interesting ride on the topy at Newcastle there after it was completely out the gate in betting.

Followed by an epic drift on the Gai fave who opened 1.75 this morning

 

[IKnowtheDog]

this is an absolute cracker. Never realised the brilliance of 'Thanks Marto'

 

[iluvparis]

Running double at Newcastle on S-TAB just paid less than the winner of the second leg

 

[balmainforever]

Running double at Newcastle on S-TAB just paid less than the winner of the second leg

this could be a $40 quaddie dividend with 2 more favs.