Michaels
Brownlow Medallist
- Feb 4, 2006
- 18,677
- 60,593
- AFL Club
- Richmond
We are heading into the bye week sitting 7th on 7 wins and 6 losses which on the surface looks like we have underachieved but once you dig a little deeper and see the players we have been missing for a large portion of the season so far, it’s a pretty good return and has us well placed to hopefully make the 8 once these players return and our run home of 7 games at the MCG.
Let’s take a quick look at our results so far in season 2019:
Round 1 vs Carlton
Car 9.10.64 def by Ric 14.13.97
Tigers by 33 points
Round 2 vs Collingwood
Rich 10.6.66 def by Col 17.8.110
Pies by 44 points
Round 3 vs GWS
GWS 19.11.125 def Ric 10.16.76
GWS by 49 points
Round 4 vs Port Adelaide
Port 14.8.92 def by Ric 15.9.99
Tigers by 7 points
Round 5 vs Sydney
Ric 13.11.89 def Syd 10.7.67
Tigers by 22 points
Round 6 vs Melbourne
Ric 12.13.85 def Mel 6.6.42
Tigers by 43 points
Round 7 vs Bulldogs
WBU 15.9.99 def Ric 7.10.52
Bulldogs by 47 points
Round 8 vs Fremantle
Fre 12.14.86 def by Ric 17.9.111
Tigers by 25 points
Round 9 vs Hawthorn
Ric 14.11.95 def Haw 8.11.59
Tigers by 36 points
Round 10 vs Essendon
Ric 10.13.73 def Ess 6.14.50
Tigers by 23 points
Round 11 vs North Melbourne
Kan 15.9.99 def Ric 9.8.62
North by 37 points
Round 12 vs Geelong
Ric 5.7.37 def by Gee 16.8.104
Cats by 67
Round 13 vs Adelaide
Ade 15.11.101 def Ric 9.14.68
Crows by 33 points
The above data shows that our average winning margin is 27 points which is fairly reasonable and consistent, but it also shows our average losing margin is 46 points which is alarmingly high.
Our lowest losing margin so far for 2019 is 33 points vs Adelaide, so when we lose, we lose poorly which is reflected by our shocking percentage of 92%
Two vital stats that typically play a huge part in the result of games are the Contested possession count and the Clearance count.
Contested Possession Round 1-13: -185
Clearances Round 1-13: -68
As you can see we are getting touched up in those key areas. We have only won the Contested ball count twice so far (against Swans and Hawks) and only won the clearance stat once (against Hawthorn).
Our last month of football has been tough with our outs and this has reflected in the numbers. If we are going to make a run in the 2nd half of the year we must close the gap on these stats.
There is no denying that prior to 2019 we had a few good years with regards to no major long term injuries to any of our key players. 2019 however is a different story with the injury gods knocking us down at every turn.
Currently we have had only 4 players play every game for season 2019 which is the lowest of any club. Dion Prestia, Tom Lynch, Jack Higgins & Kamdyn McIntosh being the 4.
Looking at the latest injury report it appears likely we will get the following players back within a few weeks after the bye: Nankervis, Riewoldt, Lambert, Astbury, Cotchin, Edwards, Short & Ross. Some pretty handy inclusions that massively re shape our team.
These inclusions are going to be vital in our run home if we are any chance of making finals this year. Top 4 is probably done and dusted, but finishing in the bottom half of the 8 should still be our target, and if we get close to a full list back towards the end of the season I think our playing group will have a lot of confidence that they can still challenge from outside the 4.
The silver lining to all these injuries though is the opportunities that have been created for some of our younger players to come through and get some serious exposure at the top level which is somewhat fast tracking their development. We have seen Noah Balta burst onto the scene with his manic running and booming kicks, Liam Baker has shown us his clean skills and dual sided passing, Ryan Garthwaite has been thrown in the deep end playing on the leagues best forwards most weeks that will hold him in good stead in the long run.
But the biggest shining light so far has been the emergence of Sydney Stack. Overlooked in both the National Draft and Rookie draft despite being touted as a top 20 talent and WA coaches saying he was the most talented player in Perth in his draft year made his way to the club in extraordinary circumstances and has grabbed his opportunity with both hands.
What’s on the cards for the back half of the season?
Our draw is fairly reasonable.
St Kilda (Marvel), Gold Coast (Metricon), GWS (MCG), Port Adelaide (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Melbourne (MCG), Carlton (MCG), West Coast (MCG), Brisbane Lions (MCG)
7 of our last 9 games at the MCG is a massive advantage and one that we have to make the most of.
Since our loss last night I have seen a lot of negative comments about our season being over both on BigFooty and Social Media in general, but when you take a look at the ladder, no matter what after this round we will still be 8th.
And even after our week off we are still a good chance to be 9th or 10th depending on results of course which is not a bad outcome.
It is vital we get off to a good start post the bye against St Kilda and Gold Coast. Two very winnable games which would really help keep us locked into the 8 as we head into a mini stretch of tougher games against GWS, Port and Pies. But by that stage we should hopefully have a large chunk of our injured players back on board which will hopefully mean we can win at least 2 of those games.
Our final 4 games are all very winnable. Melbourne and Carlton will be completely shot by then you would think, West Coast are a strong team and will be a challenge and Brisbane are no pushover either as we have seen this year and could be fighting to stay in the 8. We should be looking to win at least 3 of those last 4 at a minimum.
Assuming we don’t pick up any further injuries and our current injured players make successful returns, we could be hitting form at exactly the right time of the year which would be of great concern to other teams in the top 8.
If there is 1 thing we can all be sure of it’s that our best football is better than most teams, and a fresh, in form Richmond come September is an exciting prospect and we shouldn’t fear playing any team inside the 8 if we happen to make finals.
And who knows, we might even see a sneaky appearance from a certain number 18 as well!
TL: DR
Be #ECI and strap yourselves in, we could be in for a wild ride!
Let’s take a quick look at our results so far in season 2019:
Round 1 vs Carlton
Car 9.10.64 def by Ric 14.13.97
Tigers by 33 points
Round 2 vs Collingwood
Rich 10.6.66 def by Col 17.8.110
Pies by 44 points
Round 3 vs GWS
GWS 19.11.125 def Ric 10.16.76
GWS by 49 points
Round 4 vs Port Adelaide
Port 14.8.92 def by Ric 15.9.99
Tigers by 7 points
Round 5 vs Sydney
Ric 13.11.89 def Syd 10.7.67
Tigers by 22 points
Round 6 vs Melbourne
Ric 12.13.85 def Mel 6.6.42
Tigers by 43 points
Round 7 vs Bulldogs
WBU 15.9.99 def Ric 7.10.52
Bulldogs by 47 points
Round 8 vs Fremantle
Fre 12.14.86 def by Ric 17.9.111
Tigers by 25 points
Round 9 vs Hawthorn
Ric 14.11.95 def Haw 8.11.59
Tigers by 36 points
Round 10 vs Essendon
Ric 10.13.73 def Ess 6.14.50
Tigers by 23 points
Round 11 vs North Melbourne
Kan 15.9.99 def Ric 9.8.62
North by 37 points
Round 12 vs Geelong
Ric 5.7.37 def by Gee 16.8.104
Cats by 67
Round 13 vs Adelaide
Ade 15.11.101 def Ric 9.14.68
Crows by 33 points
The above data shows that our average winning margin is 27 points which is fairly reasonable and consistent, but it also shows our average losing margin is 46 points which is alarmingly high.
Our lowest losing margin so far for 2019 is 33 points vs Adelaide, so when we lose, we lose poorly which is reflected by our shocking percentage of 92%
Two vital stats that typically play a huge part in the result of games are the Contested possession count and the Clearance count.
Contested Possession Round 1-13: -185
Clearances Round 1-13: -68
As you can see we are getting touched up in those key areas. We have only won the Contested ball count twice so far (against Swans and Hawks) and only won the clearance stat once (against Hawthorn).
Our last month of football has been tough with our outs and this has reflected in the numbers. If we are going to make a run in the 2nd half of the year we must close the gap on these stats.
There is no denying that prior to 2019 we had a few good years with regards to no major long term injuries to any of our key players. 2019 however is a different story with the injury gods knocking us down at every turn.
Currently we have had only 4 players play every game for season 2019 which is the lowest of any club. Dion Prestia, Tom Lynch, Jack Higgins & Kamdyn McIntosh being the 4.
Looking at the latest injury report it appears likely we will get the following players back within a few weeks after the bye: Nankervis, Riewoldt, Lambert, Astbury, Cotchin, Edwards, Short & Ross. Some pretty handy inclusions that massively re shape our team.
These inclusions are going to be vital in our run home if we are any chance of making finals this year. Top 4 is probably done and dusted, but finishing in the bottom half of the 8 should still be our target, and if we get close to a full list back towards the end of the season I think our playing group will have a lot of confidence that they can still challenge from outside the 4.
The silver lining to all these injuries though is the opportunities that have been created for some of our younger players to come through and get some serious exposure at the top level which is somewhat fast tracking their development. We have seen Noah Balta burst onto the scene with his manic running and booming kicks, Liam Baker has shown us his clean skills and dual sided passing, Ryan Garthwaite has been thrown in the deep end playing on the leagues best forwards most weeks that will hold him in good stead in the long run.
But the biggest shining light so far has been the emergence of Sydney Stack. Overlooked in both the National Draft and Rookie draft despite being touted as a top 20 talent and WA coaches saying he was the most talented player in Perth in his draft year made his way to the club in extraordinary circumstances and has grabbed his opportunity with both hands.
What’s on the cards for the back half of the season?
Our draw is fairly reasonable.
St Kilda (Marvel), Gold Coast (Metricon), GWS (MCG), Port Adelaide (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Melbourne (MCG), Carlton (MCG), West Coast (MCG), Brisbane Lions (MCG)
7 of our last 9 games at the MCG is a massive advantage and one that we have to make the most of.
Since our loss last night I have seen a lot of negative comments about our season being over both on BigFooty and Social Media in general, but when you take a look at the ladder, no matter what after this round we will still be 8th.
And even after our week off we are still a good chance to be 9th or 10th depending on results of course which is not a bad outcome.
It is vital we get off to a good start post the bye against St Kilda and Gold Coast. Two very winnable games which would really help keep us locked into the 8 as we head into a mini stretch of tougher games against GWS, Port and Pies. But by that stage we should hopefully have a large chunk of our injured players back on board which will hopefully mean we can win at least 2 of those games.
Our final 4 games are all very winnable. Melbourne and Carlton will be completely shot by then you would think, West Coast are a strong team and will be a challenge and Brisbane are no pushover either as we have seen this year and could be fighting to stay in the 8. We should be looking to win at least 3 of those last 4 at a minimum.
Assuming we don’t pick up any further injuries and our current injured players make successful returns, we could be hitting form at exactly the right time of the year which would be of great concern to other teams in the top 8.
If there is 1 thing we can all be sure of it’s that our best football is better than most teams, and a fresh, in form Richmond come September is an exciting prospect and we shouldn’t fear playing any team inside the 8 if we happen to make finals.
And who knows, we might even see a sneaky appearance from a certain number 18 as well!
TL: DR
Be #ECI and strap yourselves in, we could be in for a wild ride!
