No reason why Geelong can't win the 2012 premiership...

[Claude Balls]

I was recently eating my liver whilst dwelling on the 2008 Granny, and it got me to thinking about premiership ‘windows’. As we all know, the greatest pain of last year was the sense that Hawthorn took OUR opportunity for a successful ‘era’ and turned it into their own by virtue of being younger etc. It occurs to me now however, that we are actually quite likely to enjoy an unusually long premiership ‘window’.

Let's consider 2012 - five years after we won the '07 flag (age in brackets, as of Rd 1 2012):
* denotes a speculative selection (too old, might not make it etc).

FB: Scarlett(33)* Taylor(25) Hunt(21)/Donahue(22)*
HB: Mackie(27) Gillies(21)/McKenna(22)* Corey(30)
C: Varcoe(23) Selwood(23) Kelly(28)
HF: Stokes(27) Brown(21)/Simpson(22)* Johnson(28)
FF: Ling(31)* Hawkins(23) Gamble(24)

Foll: Blake(26) – Ablett(27) – Bartel(28)

Inter: Enright(30) - Chapman(30)* - D.Simpson(22) - Ediwirickrama(21)

We are unlikely to have the same depth of class all over the ground, as in 2007… but:

- We will still have an elite midfield, of a prime age: Ablett(27), Bartel(28), Selwood(23)… plus depth
- We will have a potentially elite forward line, IF Brown or Simpson can become a top 5 CHF.
- Our backline will be diminished relative to 2007, but possibly still top 6.
- And who knows what jewels Wells might find with a late pick in ’09 or ’10.
- Plus there is still to consider: West, Hogan, Djidi, Motlop…

Variables/acknowledgements:

- Scarlett may be gone by 33, though he appears the most likely to play successfully into his 30s
- Corey, Ling, Chapman & Enright may or may not be pale shadows of their former selves, at 30 +
- Gillies/McKenna may fail to be any good
- Mitch Brown/Scott Simpson as above


Perhaps I'm going a little crazy while there's no footy...

 

[tin can sam]

We could do it.

but honestly it's just too hard to look 4 years ahead.
It's generally what unsuccessful teams do

 

[James1970]

2012?

Try 2023! Joel 'The Bull' Selwood will be in his tenth season as captain, playing in yet another year that adds to his collection of duel Premiership/Brownlow records.

 

[Claude Balls]

We could do it.

but honestly it's just too hard to look 4 years ahead.
It's generally what unsuccessful teams do

Yeah of course, but the chief thing I was trying to express was that Geelong are indeed successful NOW, yet can also look forward to potential success in 5 years time... that's a very unusual thing.

 

[cats2rise]

This thread just made me realise just how good Selwood is at such a young age. To think he will only be 23 in 2012.. WOW.

 

[BotsMaster]

It mite be possible, but then again we could lose some of these players due to salary cap issues. I hope ur right tho

 

[Whispers]

The one thing I like about Geelong is that they are always up there as "one of the teams". We have never really bombed out and become a sellar dweller of the AFL and relied on early draft picks to get us back up the ladder. The next five years look good for Geelong but its too early to predict... far to early! I'm sure if you said that Hawthorn (sorry to bring this up guys) was going to win a premiership in five years time in 2003, people would've thought you were mentally ill!

I like the future prospects though... I reckon we can maintain to be a finals side til 2012 but yeah... far to early to call!

Selwood to be 23 in 2012.... bloody hell!

 

[Turbocat]

Who knows what will be happening 2012.
Geelong has a history of losing players when the new clubs come in so it wouldn't surprise me at all if a guy like Bartel was in another jumper , just like when Freo came in we lost Wills and O'Rielly which gave us dibs on two young players , one of which was Steven King. Look at Egan , he would have been a lock in player for 2012 till the foot.

For me it 2009. We MUST be the team we can this year or risk missing out on the era we all deserve.

 

[Rosso]

I was recently eating my liver whilst dwelling on the 2008 Granny, and it got me to thinking about premiership ‘windows’. As we all know, the greatest pain of last year was the sense that Hawthorn took OUR opportunity for a successful ‘era’ and turned it into their own by virtue of being younger etc. It occurs to me now however, that we are actually quite likely to enjoy an unusually long premiership ‘window’.

Let's consider 2012 - five years after we won the '07 flag (age in brackets, as of Rd 1 2012):
* denotes a speculative selection (too old, might not make it etc).

FB: Scarlett(33)* Taylor(25) Hunt(21)/Donahue(22)*
HB: Mackie(27) Gillies(21)/McKenna(22)* Corey(30)
C: Varcoe(23) Selwood(23) Kelly(28)
HF: Stokes(27) Brown(21)/Simpson(22)* Johnson(28)
FF: Ling(31)* Hawkins(23) Gamble(24)

Foll: Blake(26) – Ablett(27) – Bartel(28)

Inter: Enright(30) - Chapman(30)* - D.Simpson(22) - Ediwirickrama(21)

We are unlikely to have the same depth of class all over the ground, as in 2007… but:

- We will still have an elite midfield, of a prime age: Ablett(27), Bartel(28), Selwood(23)… plus depth
- We will have a potentially elite forward line, IF Brown or Simpson can become a top 5 CHF.
- Our backline will be diminished relative to 2007, but possibly still top 6.
- And who knows what jewels Wells might find with a late pick in ’09 or ’10.
- Plus there is still to consider: West, Hogan, Djidi, Motlop…

Variables/acknowledgements:

- Scarlett may be gone by 33, though he appears the most likely to play successfully into his 30s
- Corey, Ling, Chapman & Enright may or may not be pale shadows of their former selves, at 30 +
- Gillies/McKenna may fail to be any good
- Mitch Brown/Scott Simpson as above


Perhaps I'm going a little crazy while there's no footy...

How about the other variable:

After taking out the 2009, 2010 & 2011 flags, the pressure of four in a row would be significant!!

That aside, I'll tip us to win by 17 points against the Blues!!

 

[thejester]

Brisbane's best 22, five years after they last contested a grand final:

B: Patful (24) Merret (24) Selwood (25)
HB: Macdonald (24) Henderson (19) Adcock (23)
C: Rischitelli (22) Dalziell (21) Stiller (22)
HF: Brennan (24) Brown (27) Johnstone (28)
F: Hooper (20) Bradshaw (30) McGrath (25)
R: Charman (26) Black (29) Power (28)
I/C: Leuenberger (20) Notting (30) Rich (18) Sherman (22)

Now obviously you can argue the toss about just who should be in that 22 but I think the basic point is proven. In five years the Brisbane Lions have gown down and are slowly trudging back up. Guys remain from the premiership tilts but they're increasingly the icing on a bunch of young players on the edge of the window. IMO our window essentially closes when Mooney, Ottens and Scarlett kick the bucket. The KPPs we've drafted over the last three years look to be a future premiership spine but they can't be expected to step in and fill such enormous shoes a few years into their development.

The last thing we want to do is replicate Essendon's efforts of the last decade. Thankfully (unlike them) we've clearly drafted well whilst we're on top, so we won't suffer the catastrophic absence of players in their prime further down the track, but deperately cobbling together premiership tilts from vetreans and kids is never going to work these days.

 

[Reg Hickey]

- No Harley, Milburn, Ottens, Scarlett (gone fer sure) or Mooney
- Corey, Enright, Ling, Chapman, Hunt all 30+
- No guarantees that ANY of the kids we have picked up in the last couple of years will be able to replace that lot
- Salary cap issues likely to get even more severe
- Considering we made a prelim with this group in 2004, history says that staying at the top for that long is just bloody hard
- Other clubs will close the gap (look what Hawthorn have done already)

 

[krisholio14]

I think ourselves and Hawthorn are going to remain serious flag threats for at least the next 3 years after this. Both teams are so well put together, it's only going to be to both teams benefits in the long term.

I also think we have an up and coming young core around which even further success can be built.

 

[Claude Balls]

Brisbane's best 22, five years after they last contested a grand final:

B: Patful (24) Merret (24) Selwood (25)
HB: Macdonald (24) Henderson (19) Adcock (23)
C: Rischitelli (22) Dalziell (21) Stiller (22)
HF: Brennan (24) Brown (27) Johnstone (28)
F: Hooper (20) Bradshaw (30) McGrath (25)
R: Charman (26) Black (29) Power (28)
I/C: Leuenberger (20) Notting (30) Rich (18) Sherman (22)

Now obviously you can argue the toss about just who should be in that 22 but I think the basic point is proven. In five years the Brisbane Lions have gown down and are slowly trudging back up. Guys remain from the premiership tilts but they're increasingly the icing on a bunch of young players on the edge of the window. IMO our window essentially closes when Mooney, Ottens and Scarlett kick the bucket. The KPPs we've drafted over the last three years look to be a future premiership spine but they can't be expected to step in and fill such enormous shoes a few years into their development.

The last thing we want to do is replicate Essendon's efforts of the last decade. Thankfully (unlike them) we've clearly drafted well whilst we're on top, so we won't suffer the catastrophic absence of players in their prime further down the track, but deperately cobbling together premiership tilts from vetreans and kids is never going to work these days.

We're talking about two different things. I'm talking about 5 years after they FIRST won the flag... i.e. the 'premiership window'. We all agree that Geelong will still be very good in 2010 for example - I'm not suggesting they will also be great in 2015!!

Anyway, it's interesting you mentioned Brisbane, as that's the team I had in mind when I concluded Geelong will have a longer window than usual.

In 2006, 5 years after Brisbane first contested the GF, the only effective remnants of their team were Black, Brown and Bradshaw (to a lesser extent Aker). Voss, Lappin, Chris Johnson, Leppitsch, and the Scott twins, were all 30 or 31, and Lynch, Hart and Pike were well over 30. All fore mentioned players were either retired, injury riddled, or pale shadows of their former, elite selves (Lappin and Johnson were reasonable).

In 2007, when Geelong first contested a GF, their team was of a significantly different age-breakdown than Brisbane in 2001. Ablett, Bartel, Selwood, Kelly, S. Johnson, Stokes and Mackie were all 24 or younger, meaning that in 2012 they will all be 28 or younger. Enright, Corey, Ling and Chapman – all from the ’99 draft - will be 30 and 31. They may be poor imitations of former glory, just like Voss, Lappin, Leppitsch etc were for the Lions in 2006, or they may not. The laws of probability suggest that one or two of them will still be good players.

Anyway, while the team will definitely lose Ottens, Mooney, Harley and Milburn and possibly Scarlett, they will still:

(a) have an elite midfield: Ablett, Bartel, Selwood
(b) have other very good young players to remain from 2007: Stokes, Kelly, Johnson, Mackie etc
(c) might be getting good service from one or two of Chapman, Ling, Corey and Enright
(d) will have acquired gun youngsters to replace the retirees: Hawkins, Taylor, Gamble etc

Geelong of 2012 promises to be far better than Brisbane was in 2006

 

[darren forssman]

just like when Freo came in we lost Wills and O'Rielly which gave us dibs on two young players , one of which was Steven King.

was the other houlihan?

 

[Reg Hickey]

was the other houlihan?

Hmmm ... lets not talk about him.

 

[darren forssman]

Hmmm ... lets not talk about him.

wells didnt have his eye in there, especially if memory serves correct he was the brother of the underperforming houihan who played for collingwood.

 

[Whispers]

wells didnt have his eye in there, especially if memory serves correct he was the brother of the underperforming houihan who played for collingwood.

Lets not talk about him! Damien Houlihan that is.. kicked 4 or 5 against the Cats one day at the G. Horrible day that one. Ironically though, it was Adam Houlihan that broke the Collingwood hearts about 6 years later in that wet match at the G!

 

[darren forssman]

Lets not talk about him! Damien Houlihan that is.. kicked 4 or 5 against the Cats one day at the G.

i was studying at that time and this collingwood supporter kept going on about damien houlihan being the next big thing.

 

[Partridge]

Who knows what will be happening 2012.
Geelong has a history of losing players when the new clubs come in so it wouldn't surprise me at all if a guy like Bartel was in another jumper , just like when Freo came in we lost Wills and O'Rielly which gave us dibs on two young players , one of which was Steven King. Look at Egan , he would have been a lock in player for 2012 till the foot.

For me it 2009. We MUST be the team we can this year or risk missing out on the era we all deserve.

Exactly. As interesting as some people find this thread, honestly I couldn't give a shit. We blew 2008 big time, and the only immediate cure to that is to win the flag in 2009.

That's it. Nothing else. And an entire forward line that has to redeem themselves.

 

[thejester]

We're talking about two different things. I'm talking about 5 years after they FIRST won the flag... i.e. the 'premiership window'. We all agree that Geelong will still be very good in 2010 for example - I'm not suggesting they will also be great in 2015!!

I was going to qualify my post with that exact point last night, but couldn't be knackered. In any case it starts with the assumption that our window only opened in 2007, which I don't think is necessarily true.

Anyway, it's interesting you mentioned Brisbane, as that's the team I had in mind when I concluded Geelong will have a longer window than usual.

In 2006, 5 years after Brisbane first contested the GF, the only effective remnants of their team were Black, Brown and Bradshaw (to a lesser extent Aker). Voss, Lappin, Chris Johnson, Leppitsch, and the Scott twins, were all 30 or 31, and Lynch, Hart and Pike were well over 30. All fore mentioned players were either retired, injury riddled, or pale shadows of their former, elite selves (Lappin and Johnson were reasonable).

In 2007, when Geelong first contested a GF, their team was of a significantly different age-breakdown than Brisbane in 2001. Ablett, Bartel, Selwood, Kelly, S. Johnson, Stokes and Mackie were all 24 or younger, meaning that in 2012 they will all be 28 or younger. Enright, Corey, Ling and Chapman – all from the ’99 draft - will be 30 and 31. They may be poor imitations of former glory, just like Voss, Lappin, Leppitsch etc were for the Lions in 2006, or they may not. The laws of probability suggest that one or two of them will still be good players.

I don't think the differences are nearly as large as you suggest. The Lions had lost more than a few champions but still had Black and Power in fine touch (av 25.5 and 24.1 respectively) and whilst Voss and Akermanis may have been shadows of their former selves that still came out at 22 and 18.6. 2006 was also the year they began to seriously blood their own new crop of emerging youngsters - Adcock, Selwood, Rischitelli, Sherman and Stiller all got gametime and performed credibly.

That also ignores the big men. Leppitsch et al weren't the titans of a few years previously, but at least they were still on the park; our current spine will be gone and as a result nearly all our KPP slots will be occupied by 22-23 yr olds with under a hundred games experience. Brisbane also still had Brown and Bradshaw available - Brown played less than half the season but pair still kicked nearly 100 goals. Finally their ruck division went from strength to strength, with Charman stepping in and immediately showing he was an elite ruckmen.

Whilst our overall age was younger I don't think that's enough to make up for what will happen over the next five years. Losing Ottens alone is a massive blow, Blake is underrated by most but he's nowhere near Ottens when it comes to influence on the field - and we have no clear replacement for him on the list. We've got a variety of young KPPs who will, in the future, be bloody good but expecting them to step in all at once to a variety of vacant spots and perform immediately is absurd. One or two of the 99ers might soldier on but it'll be a fraction of what they once did. We do have some good young kids but again expecting them to maintain the same level we get from our current batch is silly.

Anyway, while the team will definitely lose Ottens, Mooney, Harley and Milburn and possibly Scarlett, they will still:

(a) have an elite midfield: Ablett, Bartel, Selwood
(b) have other very good young players to remain from 2007: Stokes, Kelly, Johnson, Mackie etc
(c) might be getting good service from one or two of Chapman, Ling, Corey and Enright
(d) will have acquired gun youngsters to replace the retirees: Hawkins, Taylor, Gamble etc

Geelong of 2012 promises to be far better than Brisbane was in 2006

That's not much of an achievement given that Brisbane finished 13th, is it? We might be able to scrape the 8 but as has been repeatedly demonstrated if you're not in the Top 4 the chances of you winning are virtually nil. To be honest I would hope that by 2012 we'd be firmly in a rebuilding phase - getting games into the young KPPs and rotating through future small prospects so they can get experience on the big stage and gets some serious tutelage from our gun players.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Exactly. As interesting as some people find this thread, honestly I couldn't give a shit. We blew 2008 big time, and the only immediate cure to that is to win the flag in 2009.

That's it. Nothing else. And an entire forward line that has to redeem themselves.

Well said Partridge. My thoughts exactly.

Geelongs success has been built off the backline. My fear is that with Scarlett, Harely and Milburn all nearin the end it could deteriorate rapidly. Its this reason that the ongoing injury problems with Egan are so tragic.

But having said that we have every chance to eek out another flag. If we can get 2 from 3 over the period i will be a very contented man.

 

[Copernicus]

Have to say I am not too concerned about 2012. 2009 is it as far as I am concerned. Obviously the club tends to look more long-range than most fans do.

One thing that you have to take into account if you're thinking we'll be premiership contenders in 4 or 5 years time is the improvement of other teams. Sure, we might be contenders then, but there's every chance that some struggling mob will unearth a few dazzling players by the time a few years are up and will have superior talent. It's hard enough predicting things year to year.

 

[Riggy1]

I was recently eating my liver whilst dwelling on the 2008 Granny, and it got me to thinking about premiership ‘windows’. As we all know, the greatest pain of last year was the sense that Hawthorn took OUR opportunity for a successful ‘era’ and turned it into their own by virtue of being younger etc. It occurs to me now however, that we are actually quite likely to enjoy an unusually long premiership ‘window’.

Let's consider 2012 - five years after we won the '07 flag (age in brackets, as of Rd 1 2012):
* denotes a speculative selection (too old, might not make it etc).

FB: Scarlett(33)* Taylor(25) Hunt(21)/Donahue(22)*
HB: Mackie(27) Gillies(21)/McKenna(22)* Corey(30)
C: Varcoe(23) Selwood(23) Kelly(28)
HF: Stokes(27) Brown(21)/Simpson(22)* Johnson(28)
FF: Ling(31)* Hawkins(23) Gamble(24)

Foll: Blake(26) – Ablett(27) – Bartel(28)

Inter: Enright(30) - Chapman(30)* - D.Simpson(22) - Ediwirickrama(21)

We are unlikely to have the same depth of class all over the ground, as in 2007… but:

-We will still have an elite midfield, of a prime age: Ablett(27), Bartel(28), Selwood(23)… plus depth
-We will have a potentially elite forward line, IF Brown or Simpson can become a top 5 CHF.
-Our backline will be diminished relative to 2007, but possibly still top 6.
-And who knows what jewels Wells might find with a late pick in ’09 or ’10.
-Plus there is still to consider: West, Hogan, Djidi, Motlop…

Variables/acknowledgements:

-Scarlett may be gone by 33, though he appears the most likely to play successfully into his 30s
-Corey, Ling, Chapman & Enright may or may not be pale shadows of their former selves, at 30 +
-Gillies/McKenna may fail to be any good
-Mitch Brown/Scott Simpson as above


Perhaps I'm going a little crazy while there's no footy...

nice. I wont be shitting myself when we play you, then, but its still quite good, If some of your star players take pay cuts in the next few years you will have this team, but It will be hard for you to keep the team together. TBH, 09 Premriship, 10 grand final, 11 top 4, 12 top 8 which is where IMHO you will stabalise for a while.

 

[krisholio14]

Exactly. As interesting as some people find this thread, honestly I couldn't give a shit. We blew 2008 big time, and the only immediate cure to that is to win the flag in 2009.

That's it. Nothing else. And an entire forward line that has to redeem themselves.

That's the bottom line.

Frankly i'm not thinking about 2012 at this point. Just want to see us do the business this year while the window is still well and truly open.

 

[Whispers]

i was studying at that time and this collingwood supporter kept going on about damien houlihan being the next big thing.

Correction, it was three goals he kicked. Played well though. Surprisingly only played 11 matches. Its funny to think out of four brothers, we got the best one in Adam! lol

I guess we are good at picking the best brother though (Mr. J. Selwood!)