Racing November Daily Thread: Another TAB F*** Up

[HeathySure]

It could even be that the trainers know that the horses are soft but run then anyway because the prizemoney is so big that its worth the risk.

 

[FallingLiefs]

I watched what he said but is there any data to actually back it up? Horses aren't having the same problems off similar lead ups in different countries. They aren't even having those problems here outside of 1 race

No there is not,

It's all logical explanations of his personal experiences and theories. There is bare minimal actual evidence of what is actually happening because those in charge with the power and information have to this point blamed "extreme variance" and stuck their heads in the sand when the greater benefit to all participants to air this out. Acknowledge these deaths are not good enough investigate root cause and if truely uncorrelated then live that with the fact that this is a true representation of racing and the activists are right.

 

[rank and file]

You'd think they would've worked out that the
internationals should drink more milk,like the locals.
Strong bones.
Bag Raider in the last at Pakenham.

 

[Fabab]

No there is not,

It's all logical explanations of his personal experiences and theories. There is bare minimal actual evidence of what is actually happening because those in charge with the power and information have to this point blamed "extreme variance" and stuck their heads in the sand when the greater benefit to all participants to air this out. Acknowledge these deaths are not good enough investigate root cause and if truely uncorrelated then live that with the fact that this is a true representation of racing and the activists are right.

Maybe start a new thread mate,the cup has been run and won,i thought this was a daily racing thread.

 

[Jugada]

No there is not,

It's all logical explanations of his personal experiences and theories. There is bare minimal actual evidence of what is actually happening because those in charge with the power and information have to this point blamed "extreme variance" and stuck their heads in the sand when the greater benefit to all participants to air this out. Acknowledge these deaths are not good enough investigate root cause and if truely uncorrelated then live that with the fact that this is a true representation of racing and the activists are right.

Yeah good on him and I listened to what he said and some parts seemed thought out but it still doesn't change the fact that nothing he was talking about really has this sort of result under the same circumstances elsewhere and doesn't even happen here outside of one race so I would want a little bit more to back it up than a personal anecdote.

Extreme variance can well be an answer (and is the most likely one at this point when a month down the line no real cause can be pinpointed). Don't need to get all preachy about it and ban the raiders from coming just to make yourself look like you give more of a s**t. I'd be happy to try to find a reason for the mess but I can't see one at the moment and I'm not going to try to jam a round peg in a square hole just to make it seem like I'm making a difference

 

[Joker91]

Spectators to return to Victorian race meetings from this weekend

Racing Victoria (RV) and Country Racing Victoria (CRV) are pleased to announce the resumption of spectator attendance at Victorian race meetings under COVIDSafe protocols from this Saturday, 28 November 2020.

www.racingvictoria.com.au

 

[iluvparis]

It could even be that the trainers know that the horses are soft but run then anyway because the prizemoney is so big that its worth the risk.

Yeah Coolmore defs doing that with an Epsom winning Stalllion and the Aga Khan with a prized Broodmare


LOOOOOOOOOOOL

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Vintage edition of Japan Cup this Sunday. Two Triple crown winners and defending champ plus some other quality runners.

Pity there’s no cricket for channel 9 to interrupt to screen its running

 

[iluvparis]

Vintage edition of Japan Cup this Sunday. Two Triple crown winners and defending champ plus some other quality runners.

Pity there’s no cricket for channel 9 to interrupt to screen its running

Three TC winners actually - Almond Eye is also a triple crown winner!

 

[FallingLiefs]

CROWN PERTH - WINTERBOTTOM STAKES 1200M (G1, 3-Y-O & Up)

Very boring market as continue to see it similar in the G1's, unlike hoping for Inspirational Girl (did not go well) or Red Can Man drift last week I don't see any potential bets here other than maybe hail mary on Vital Silver's soundness at BSP 30:1++ but not a strong winning chance by any means. Other then that hope for antepost positions.

Chances, just the 5

TREKKING, $2.4 - Obvious horse, will be the one horse I explain in ratings because its just a matter of where you sit him at to control the market. basically last year I rated him expected to go 100, The market price thought he'd go 102 which is about 1L better, he went 98 which is 1L worse. PB around 102-3 I have him going 100.5 this year. So a length or so off top or his very consistent top line. I don't see how he doesn't firm on the day. Expecting last years market opinion to hold and see red odds here late.
INDIAN PACIFIC, $7.0 - Good map, Huge SP profile improving start to start and has a strong career best. Last start cut up on what was genuine Heavy 9 when they went a bit too hard. Winkers first time as the blinkers got him a bit hot in his final gallop. Will peak on saturday. Is the one horse in striking range of beating the fave on it's merits doing his somewhat top.
RED CAN MAN, $11 - Class performer and I don't classify the drop back in dist a big negative for genuine sprinter/miler with good map. I think he could actually improve on last week or go back so just for sake of assigning a number I’m expecting him to hold. Will be a flexible price so bad parade or market moves I will follow on this guy.
VITAL SILVER, $12 - 3rd last year, Very good first up would be near $4-5 if he had that run into this. Instead he was super super plain 2nd up off no trial maybe he felt that, start later was ok where tempo didnt favour 1400. If you can forgive the middle run is a good chance.
CELEBRITY QUEEN, $15 - Looked to improve last start but didn't leap forward into strong contention, needs to do it again which is possible off wet track and now 1200m. Definitely possible on previous history as her 1100 last prep was noticeably worse start for a bit off similar campaign and jumped when back to 1200 14 days later.

Needs Luck, I'd be surprised

VALOUR ROAD, $20 - Solid map solid personal best not good enough but will likely be within a length of second and map/bias is probably his chance.
FLIRTINI, $22 - So she should either find herself outside the leader or last 3 wide from the outside. Market seems to have given up on her basically last chance for me but still giving her a slim chance
STAGEMAN, $28 - Consistent type that gets back. I just find it hard to find a way where he wins overtaking a field of this class. Last 4 starts stewards reads as: Bounded on jumping, Commenced Awkwardly, Commenced Awkwardly hitting gates slowly away 1L, Slowly away 1L. Basically giving them too much a head start so at bare minimum, ticket could be in the bin after 25m
ELITE STREET, $33 - The same but different as above, on the way up, where does he end not sure but I think the answer for this prep at best is around stageman level and just needs to find more to overtake a field of this class.
ROCK MAGIC, $40 - Put in a couple bad runs on his historic runs in WA now in a wheelchair, the end may finally be nigh. He can get back there but like Great Shot last week i'll just about call this guy after saturday.

Struggle to see winning

ESSENTIAL SPICE, $95 - Big run last week, looked her top which she's held repetitively on wet tracks sub 1200m I don't see her holding over 1200m
DURENDAL, $108 - Not good enough, might hold a spot for 3rd/4th if he goes his top on good map/profile for improvement but he's simply not good enough to get the nose in front on the post
MALIBU STYLE, $125 - Gone, Love the ol boy
LAVERROD, $129 - Back/wide or at best the one that finds it 3wnc punching the breeze. Calling for Oxygen last 2 over 1400m back to 1200m best is ok but just hard to see him do it here.
CONDOR HEROES, $332 - Likely leader, likely doesn't get 1200 injects some top end speed into the race for swoopers by crossing this field
MANKIND, $531 - I have his personal best getting beat 4L (by Showmanship) so that probably explains where he is at.

 

[Matty_G]

Red Can Man is getting costly to follow, I'm jumping off so watch him win with a leg in the air.

 

[iluvparis]

Red Can Man is getting costly to follow, I'm jumping off so watch him win with a leg in the air.

Couldn't possibly win this 1600 back to 12

 

[FallingLiefs]

Ortensia ran in the railway with 53.5kg as third fave only to be beat 2L and back up 7 days later over 1200m and won. To that point her best win was a QTC cup by a nose. She went on to be a good horse internationally but really at that point was a long way off where she got to. She was also somewhat disappointing on SPs she should have won more early and arrived in WA with a low 100 official rating like RCM.

Far from impossible.

 

[HeathySure]

Trekking lay of the day. Has turned into a non winner and its been a long prep. Getting beaten by Pippie and Hey doc and Tyzone doesnt really inspire confidence in me. i don't know who will beat it but something will so Betfair here i come!

 

[iluvparis]

Trekking lay of the day. Has turned into a non winner and its been a long prep. Getting beaten by Pippie and Hey doc and Tyzone doesnt really inspire confidence in me. i don't know who will beat it but something will so Betfair here i come!

A must bet for any reasoned form analyst at current prices - has lengths on this lot and the wide draw is actually perfect for this race and where most winners come from. Genuine odds on chance on exposed form and you are getting a laughable premium for the myths like track pattern, travelled ok, afterthought etc.

Just wins.

Hey Doc won this easily last year so getting beat by it is no drama for bolting this in.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Trekking lay of the day. Has turned into a non winner and its been a long prep.

We can only pray this is true. Give the Indian Strength.

 

[iluvparis]

I think Non WA runners have won 9 of the last 12 and the last 8 winners have drawn 8+ looks a solid dicky

 

[HeathySure]

A must bet for any reasoned form analyst at current prices - has lengths on this lot and the wide draw is actually perfect for this race and where most winners come from. Genuine odds on chance on exposed form and you are getting a laughable premium for the myths like track pattern, travelled ok, afterthought etc.

Just wins.

Hey Doc won this easily last year so getting beat by it is no drama for bolting this in.

Trekking ran last year and ran 4th

 

[iluvparis]

Trekking ran last year and ran 4th

Yeah and Twilight Payment run in last years Melbourne Cup and ran 1325th

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Not a race I’m going near, Treking possibly wins but you are game taking evens

 

[HeathySure]

Yeah and Twilight Payment run in last years Melbourne Cup and ran 1325th

good luck @rememberABM @loserskeeplosing

 

[iluvparis]

Not a race I’m going near, Treking possibly wins but you are game taking evens

You are getting much better than evens for a horse that most likely jumps in a red.

 

[iluvparis]

good luck @rememberABM @loserskeeplosing

Concede if they go as slow as they did in the Sandown Classic it can't win - but that's POP theory which is pointless to bet on.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

You are getting much better than evens for a horse that most likely jumps in a red.

Almost rather just play the quaddie wide and hope for the best. If it wins so be it. Not a race I’m investing in.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

The sexual tension between Heath & Paris hasn’t been seen since the days of Ryan Phelan & Sandra Sully