Operation 2018 afl draft

[Betts are off]

Havent heard much about Hugo Munn at this stage, is he any good?

 

[Betts are off]

A truley talented, class small forward is the need, IMO. Betts has a couple of years yet, but Rankine would do well from the apprenticeship and be good to go year 1.

Thats my thoughts exactly. Rankine is an excitement machine, and just the kind of spark we need when Eddie inevitably slows down. Could be an excellent outside mid with a few preseasons as well IMO

 

[Betts are off]

I know the saying is draft the best player on the board but who in our team do we really have to start planning to find a replacements for in the next couple of years?
We are now at the stage where we'll need to bring in a new pool of talent soon.

Our key position forwards going forward look slim to me.
Harry Dear at 197cms and Himmelberg at 198 cms have not progressed as much as I would have liked to see.They have talent but neither are dominant players in the SANFL.
Fog looks good but is he a key positional player? Sure he's solid and tough but he is only 192 cms, that's not overly tall for a key forward.
I just can't see us having the picks in the top 10 to select the players a lot of posters are mentioning.

I'm perplexed at what our draft strategy will be this year with perhaps 3 picks in the first 25.

Thin at KPF? I'm interested to see how you've come to that conclusion.

By last count we had Jenkins, Tex, Gov, Lynch who are all in or approaching their prime (Loose term for JJ), Fog busting the door down, and 2 guys who cant get games but could well be players if they weren't stuck behind the AFL's most potent forward line of the last 3 years.

TBH I feel like we have an embarrassment of riches when it comes too AFL quality KPF's right now. I'd certainly be hesitant to keep more then 7 KPF's on a AFL list.

 

[LC40]

Thin at KPF? I'm interested to see how you've come to that conclusion.

By last count we had Jenkins, Tex, Gov, Lynch who are all in or approaching their prime (Loose term for JJ), Fog busting the door down, and 2 guys who cant get games but could well be players if they weren't stuck behind the AFL's most potent forward line of the last 3 years.

TBH I feel like we have an embarrassment of riches when it comes too AFL quality KPF's right now. I'd certainly be hesitant to keep more then 7 KPF's on a AFL list.

It depends how you look at list management.
I started the post with "who in our team do we really have to start planning to find a replacements for in the next couple of years?"
I wrote "Our key position forwards going forward look slim to me."
That is the replacements on our list for Tex and JJ.
That's why I listed the height of Himmelberg and Dear and said Fog may not be tall enough. (Some are even calling for Fog to be developed as a mid fielder.)
Dear and Himmelberg are the prime candidates we are now developing to move into those key positions.
I don't count Lynch and Gov as key position forwards. Both are mobile flankers and pockets who add an extra dimension to the team but I wouldn't like to see them stationed in the key post on a full term basis.

Right now Tex is 28 years old and has been carrying different injuries for a couple of years. His output is fine but imagine a healthy Tex, he certainly wasn't 100% in the GF and at the start of this season he is definitely carrying an injury. His pace and movement looks severely hampered but it's a credit to his mental toughness that he is still contributing. He may have a few good years left if he can get his body right but the end is nearer.
JJ is 29 years old and although I like him many here want/wanted him replaced. If his output declines the screams will intensify for his removal.
JJ came to football later and plays a more running style of football so he hasn't had the injury troubles others have had but once you hit 30 some planning needs to be done to blood a replacement.

Dear and Himmelberg just haven't come on and don't look like remotely pushing out Tex or JJ out.
I know playing in the AFL team they would both look better prospects but as I've stated before the one problem I see with our player development is opportunity or the lack of it. They may come on but what if they don't?
That said if we do draft a KPF they will still need a few years in the SANFL to mature. This will push the ages of JJ and Tex out before they are replaced.
I actually would love us to draft a true KPF, surely if Lukosius or King were available you would grab them even though you yourself would be hesitant to carry more than 7 KPF's on an AFL list.

My last line of the post was, "I'm perplexed at what our draft strategy will be this year with perhaps 3 picks in the first 25."
I truly do not know what the list managers are after in this years draft. A speedy player to replace Cameron eg. a Rankine type, a key position forward, more quality midfielders, another ruckman or perhaps a developing backmen.
Most years you can predict what type of player we would grab, but at this point of the year I'm not so
confident.

 

[Bazz_27]

I would really hope we are looking at some elite mids with pace to burn.

 

[Jarman3]

Dear and Himmelberg just haven't come on and don't look like remotely pushing out Tex or JJ out.
I know playing in the AFL team they would both look better prospects but as I've stated before the one problem I see with our player development is opportunity or the lack of it. They may come on but what if they don't?
That said if we do draft a KPF they will still need a few years in the SANFL to mature. This will push the ages of JJ and Tex out before they are replaced.
I actually would love us to draft a true KPF, surely if Lukosius or King were available you would grab them even though you yourself would be hesitant to carry more than 7 KPF's on an AFL list.

Dear is out of contract this year, isn't he? If he still hasn't cracked it for some senior games by the end of the season, you'd have to think he'd be departing the club. Either the club will give up on him and cut him, or somebody else will take an interest and he'll head there in search of opportunity. Most likely as a delisted free agent, or perhaps a token 3rd / 4th round pick kind of trade. If he's not up to AFL standard then no point keeping him any longer, and if he is actually up to it then I doubt he'll want to wait around doing an apprenticeship for another 3 years until Tex and / or JJ retire. Obviously there's the chance of opportunities there if those guys get injured or drop away, but I doubt he'd be willing to hang around on that basis if there's another club offering him a spot in their best 22. Unlucky for him that he's been at the club during a period where it was always going to be difficult for him to be anything more than a depth player.

 

[Bicks]

It depends how you look at list management.
I started the post with "who in our team do we really have to start planning to find a replacements for in the next couple of years?"
I wrote "Our key position forwards going forward look slim to me."
That is the replacements on our list for Tex and JJ.
That's why I listed the height of Himmelberg and Dear and said Fog may not be tall enough. (Some are even calling for Fog to be developed as a mid fielder.)
Dear and Himmelberg are the prime candidates we are now developing to move into those key positions.
I don't count Lynch and Gov as key position forwards. Both are mobile flankers and pockets who add an extra dimension to the team but I wouldn't like to see them stationed in the key post on a full term basis.

Right now Tex is 28 years old and has been carrying different injuries for a couple of years. His output is fine but imagine a healthy Tex, he certainly wasn't 100% in the GF and at the start of this season he is definitely carrying an injury. His pace and movement looks severely hampered but it's a credit to his mental toughness that he is still contributing. He may have a few good years left if he can get his body right but the end is nearer.
JJ is 29 years old and although I like him many here want/wanted him replaced. If his output declines the screams will intensify for his removal.
JJ came to football later and plays a more running style of football so he hasn't had the injury troubles others have had but once you hit 30 some planning needs to be done to blood a replacement.

Dear and Himmelberg just haven't come on and don't look like remotely pushing out Tex or JJ out.
I know playing in the AFL team they would both look better prospects but as I've stated before the one problem I see with our player development is opportunity or the lack of it. They may come on but what if they don't?
That said if we do draft a KPF they will still need a few years in the SANFL to mature. This will push the ages of JJ and Tex out before they are replaced.
I actually would love us to draft a true KPF, surely if Lukosius or King were available you would grab them even though you yourself would be hesitant to carry more than 7 KPF's on an AFL list.

My last line of the post was, "I'm perplexed at what our draft strategy will be this year with perhaps 3 picks in the first 25."
I truly do not know what the list managers are after in this years draft. A speedy player to replace Cameron eg. a Rankine type, a key position forward, more quality midfielders, another ruckman or perhaps a developing backmen.
Most years you can predict what type of player we would grab, but at this point of the year I'm not so
confident.

Lukosius I'd grab at all costs if by some miracle he's available, a SA mobile Tall, versatile, elite kicking lead up Forward you just could not pass over, King more a stay at home KPF IMO, I could pass him over given he's also a Vic Metro lad. IMO Lukosius would be capable of playing AFL in his 1st year as a 3rd tall or even in Tom Lynch's role should Tom look elsewhere. An added bonus with Lukosius is on the few occasions he's spent time down back he's proven he's more than capable there too.

I agree re Dear who I feel may be tried down back more this year to see if he's a chance there, he's got something but probably not enough to retain at this point in time. Way, way too early to pass judgement on Himmelberg, looks a top forward prospect to my eye.

 

[Betts are off]

It depends how you look at list management.
I started the post with "who in our team do we really have to start planning to find a replacements for in the next couple of years?"
I wrote "Our key position forwards going forward look slim to me."
That is the replacements on our list for Tex and JJ.
That's why I listed the height of Himmelberg and Dear and said Fog may not be tall enough. (Some are even calling for Fog to be developed as a mid fielder.)
Dear and Himmelberg are the prime candidates we are now developing to move into those key positions.
I don't count Lynch and Gov as key position forwards. Both are mobile flankers and pockets who add an extra dimension to the team but I wouldn't like to see them stationed in the key post on a full term basis.

Right now Tex is 28 years old and has been carrying different injuries for a couple of years. His output is fine but imagine a healthy Tex, he certainly wasn't 100% in the GF and at the start of this season he is definitely carrying an injury. His pace and movement looks severely hampered but it's a credit to his mental toughness that he is still contributing. He may have a few good years left if he can get his body right but the end is nearer.
JJ is 29 years old and although I like him many here want/wanted him replaced. If his output declines the screams will intensify for his removal.
JJ came to football later and plays a more running style of football so he hasn't had the injury troubles others have had but once you hit 30 some planning needs to be done to blood a replacement.

Dear and Himmelberg just haven't come on and don't look like remotely pushing out Tex or JJ out.
I know playing in the AFL team they would both look better prospects but as I've stated before the one problem I see with our player development is opportunity or the lack of it. They may come on but what if they don't?
That said if we do draft a KPF they will still need a few years in the SANFL to mature. This will push the ages of JJ and Tex out before they are replaced.
I actually would love us to draft a true KPF, surely if Lukosius or King were available you would grab them even though you yourself would be hesitant to carry more than 7 KPF's on an AFL list.

My last line of the post was, "I'm perplexed at what our draft strategy will be this year with perhaps 3 picks in the first 25."
I truly do not know what the list managers are after in this years draft. A speedy player to replace Cameron eg. a Rankine type, a key position forward, more quality midfielders, another ruckman or perhaps a developing backmen.
Most years you can predict what type of player we would grab, but at this point of the year I'm not so
confident.

I get where you are coming from, there are always question marks, but i'd still be hesitant to say its a thin position group, even going forward. To fill in the counter argument to your points
a) FOG as a developmental MID may never take, he's no-where near AFL mid fitness levels, and certainly low on speed. He could be a role player, but i'd not be surprised if he's a Jesse Hogan/Jake Stringer type forward for most of his career.
b) Himmelberg just got resigned and by all reports looks like a real good find as a Ruck/Fwd. Those guys take a long time to develop though, so patience is key with him.
c) Lynch i'll agree is a HFF, but he is still in the best 22 whenever fit, and is not giving up his spot, And if extended he doesn't look like the type to fall off a cliff anytime soon.
d) Gov, i'd be filthy if he doesn't start to play more FF now he has his big contract. He has all the tools to be as dangerous a deep FF threat can be. His time as the Xfactor HFF are hopefully limited.
e) JJ, i'v learned the hard way never to say a good word about JJ in here. Never met with much enthusiasm. I will say though if he's fit and still kicking goals then he plays every game of the 3 remaining years of his contract, no matter how much we all criticize him. Despite the (obvious) deficiencies in his game 50-60 goal 2nd rucks don't grow on trees.
f) Tex. Only expecting him to play well for another 2 years is a little glass half empty IMO. I'd say he'll still play another 3-5. (5 being a stretch, but 33 year old KPF's aren't unheard of).
g) Dear, i don't have much hope there. Probably be lucky to stay on our roster in 2019, so there room there I suppose.

Bottom line i don't think you're way off at all, but I do think if you are looking at position groups KPF is pretty healthy and will be for the foreseeable future. If we action-ed it this offseason then so be it, especially if a King or Lukosius falls to us, but if we didn't i wouldn't be to surprised.

 

[Carmo]

Luke edwards might scrape in to 193 eventually (186 as a 16 yr old)(hmm, maybe I am a bit too optimistic there). Another key forward possibility if so. When's he meant to be drafted? I just had a look at the thread on him, and some suggest 2020, but if so, why's he not in u16's this year?

Also when looking here https://www.afldraftcentral.com.au/tag/luke-edwards/ , for luke's height, under the south Adelaide section it talks about a father son hayden sampson. If he's related to clay sampson, not enough games for father son for us. If he's already playing for south under a father son setup, why mention it? Seemed odd.

 

[GrommoT]

Luke was born 12 Jan 2002 - he will still be 17 on 31 Dec 2019 so not eligible for '19 draft (if they raise the draft age by then, we'll have even longer to wait )

Luke edwards might scrape in to 193 eventually (186 as a 16 yr old)(hmm, maybe I am a bit too optimistic there). Another key forward possibility if so. When's he meant to be drafted? I just had a look at the thread on him, and some suggest 2020, but if so, why's he not in u16's this year? ...

Too good for u16? Probably develop much better at the older age group.