Autopsy Overrun by GWS

[Wheresbuddy]

Yes but no team should concede what was it 45 points in ten minutes. We saw it in the second quarter in the gf and last night. There is zero ability to stop teams once they get momentum. Whoever said we should have apologised to Wayne Milera (while funny was wrong)

He should have apologised for being wrong not because he said he was so surprised we were so easy to beat but because he shouldn’t have been surprised

There aren’t any swans fans who don’t feel this way whether they are on here or on Facebook or elsewhere. The fans have seem the same movie and have reached the point where they doubt there is any likely improvement

I agree. We just disintegrate when teams get a run on and almost look like stationary witches hats just watching a training drill unfold. Do we even train for this situation? Mids pitch in, win back the ball then everyone runs their arses to create non contested marks to retain the ball and slow the momentum. Maybe we're just not good enough across the park?

 

[Wheresbuddy]

brilliant first half and we should have been further up.
not saying we weren’t ordinary but it’s worth highlighting three main things
-in the second half our 3 key position forwards and backs consisted of Melican, Francis and Buller. No way were we ever going to win when you compare that with Buckley, Taylor, Hogan, Cadman etc its not even fair!
-gulden, paps were clearly not 100%. So with being a couple of rotations down in second half and a couple of players hurt. We were never going to have the run
-giants were crazy good in 3rd quarter. Yes we were ordinary but wow that was impressive

This is true. But where was the fight? The best teams like Pies and Lions don't just fold like we did, even when they're missing players. I think back to the Lions v GC game last year where they literally had no tall backs and had to play Hipwood as their only tall defender. He was just about BoG and Lions won by 5 goals.

 

[J_Moore]

He was doing to us what Chad and heeney do to others.

The difference is they have kpp at either end who can mark it and we don’t. If he misses a target and turns it over their back six will get it. And if kicks it forward they’ll mark it or bring it ground.

The frustration I feel from the failures of 2022 and 2024 must be equally large for those who played in both matches but we never fixed the issues - we don’t have a reliable marking defender such as Tom barass. We don’t have a ball winning mid such as lachy Neale and we don’t have athletic tall forwards. We have a lot of guys who try hard all over the ground and heeney who if he has an ordinary game - see gf 2024 or last night - we have nothing behind it.

Their dominance in the centre square in the third quarter was like ports last year, like brisbanes in 2024 and Geelong in 2022.

There is a reason we look so much better with Amartey there this year, even if he’s not a world beater. Having an athletic forward makes such a structural difference when you’re moving the ball quickly.

But there are other ways - this list just drops the bundle when Plan A stops working.

 

[Tommy221987]

Would have been also hard for Buller last night having to change his game to play as the second ruck.

 

[Wheresbuddy]

Would have been also hard for Buller last night having to change his game to play as the second ruck.

I thought he did really well. If we keep him, he will be competing hard for the third tall / 2nd ruck spot in 2026.

 

[Swans22]

This is true. But where was the fight? The best teams like Pies and Lions don't just fold like we did, even when they're missing players. I think back to the Lions v GC game last year where they literally had no tall backs and had to play Hipwood as their only tall defender. He was just about BoG and Lions won by 5 goals.

True. It is perplexing. To me it speaks to system - we don’t trust it. When the pies are down, they have faith that if they stick to their fundamentals they’ll be ok. Our entire system crumbles once the momentum, tide turns against us.

 

[McRobie]

The way Papley carried on just before to halftime really encapsulate What this team is all about.
Puff your chest out when you’re winning and carry on like an absolute moron, but the minute there’s any pushback they hide going to the shell, let someone else do their job and simply lay down and let the opposition Roger them with zero resistance.

It’s symptomatic of weak, pathetic coaching and leadership on and Off field, and it’s gonna be a really really long, three more years with Dean Cox

Dean Cox

Age

44

Ht

203cm

Wt

107kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.9

4star

K

8.9

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

5.3

5star

T

1.5

3star

G

0.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.0

1star

at the helm, cause he ain’t it.
If there’s any team that shouldn’t be carrying on getting an opposition faces it’s us because we certainly can’t back it up.

 

[ashep]

The way Papley carried on just before to halftime really encapsulates. What this team is all about.
Puff your chest out when you’re winning and carry on like an absolute moron, but the minute there’s any pushback they hide going to the shell, let someone else do their job and simply lay down and let the opposition Roger them with zero resistance.

It’s symptomatic of weak, pathetic coaching and leadership on On Off field, and it’s gonna be a really really long, three more years with Dean Cox at the helm, cause he ain’t it.
If there’s any team that shouldn’t be carrying on getting an opposition faces it’s us because we certainly can’t back it up.

What were your thoughts on Papley carrying on when we went down in the QF last year and then being a key part of our comeback?

What were your thoughts on Greene talking shit at halftime last night after being belted, then coming back to win?

That's part of sports and how some players fire themselves up. Sure you sometimes end up with egg on your face but calling the coaches and leaders "pathetic" because Papley gets stuck in is ridiculous.

 

[Bloods86]

I realise there were and are multiple issues with our game, but I honestly wouldn't bat an eyelid if Roberts was delisted today. He does nothing well for mine.

A panic merchant with a pea heart. To call him a deer in the headlights would be an insult to the temperament of your average deer.

Overdue in being dropped, but delisting is a bit much given what he showed last year.

Form can change, though people often talk as if it's permanent.

 

[Kbroome]

No, it's not off one game.
We were THE highest scoring team in the comp last year, we were not in the top 6 defences.
We were a top 6 scoring team in 2023, we were not a top 6 defence in 2023.

So I don't think I could possibly disagree any more if you think we're one of the better defensive sides.
Not sure how or on what planet we're a top 6 defence when we've only achieved that feat twice since 2018? Middle of the road offence can be papered over by a good defence, defence wins flags.

2024

Top 6 defence, Top offence

2025 (when we have had our best team available or most part last 6-7 games)

Top 6 defence, 9th best offence


Thanks for proving my point that it is the offence that needs work because we don't have a deadly accurate reliable finisher and not enough goal scoring

 

[melbournehammer]

The way Papley carried on just before to halftime really encapsulates. What this team is all about.
Puff your chest out when you’re winning and carry on like an absolute moron, but the minute there’s any pushback they hide going to the shell, let someone else do their job and simply lay down and let the opposition Roger them with zero resistance.

It’s symptomatic of weak, pathetic coaching and leadership on On Off field, and it’s gonna be a really really long, three more years with Dean Cox at the helm, cause he ain’t it.
If there’s any team that shouldn’t be carrying on getting an opposition faces it’s us because we certainly can’t back it up.

Agree with much of this even if by nature I’m introverted and prefer to let actions speak louder than words

Not sure about cox but given we have lost games on ghe back of endless cycles of giving fifty away losing players to ridiculous suspensions and so on.

It’s like the whole team has white line fever and lose any sense of what makes you - going harder for longer - and the yapping does almost nothing to achieve that

Played a lot of cricket as a junior - sledging distracts some players and makes others better. I like papley a lot but he’s barely been on the park this year - just get a kick and a tackled and another kick and another tackle and lead by actions

 

[melbournehammer]

2024

Top 6 defence, Top offence

2025 (when we have had our best team available or most part last 6-7 games)

Top 6 defence, 9th best offence


Thanks for proving my point that it is the offence that needs work because we don't have a deadly accurate reliable finisher and not enough goal scoring

You keep saying this without taking account of the fixture.

Would that same team have done as well against hawthorn Collingwood and Brisbane or was it doing well against st kilda north and Fremantle.

The last five weeks in part reflected getting more best 22 back but in part reflected playing teams that were poor or average. It’s a weird table this year because there are no upsets because the gap between 10 and 18 is very large.

 

[catchem02]

It sucks and I fully understand people wanting that miracle run into finals

But its now time to be realistic, what can we get out of this season to make us better set up for 2026

We need to look at the 30 year old plus players and think are they are going to with us next year (Rampe, Hamling, Fox, Adams, Cunningham, Lloyd and Grundy)

We also need to get games into Snell and Dattoli and not just wait for the absolute perfect time for them to debut.

We need to focus on the development of Cleary as an on baller not as a small forward

We need to think about players that are valuable at the trade table that won't get incredibly much better (finished product), (Florent, Sheldrick etc)

We also need to think about Green's development, Bowman is he a half back or half forward, Leidler is he a small defender or small forward

Total agree .they have been great servants but I think the likes of Lloyd/ rampe/ Adam’s are only to get a contract on the provision that they play vfl and play 1st grade when needed and if they don’t like it move on cause it’s actually going to effect development going forward .
I can’t for the life of me understand why the coaches can’t fix Blakey kicking his jabs it and instead of flooding the defence 50 leave a player or two outside ready for the dump kick cause how many do we turn over that way .

 

[wilsonmatic]

What moves did Cox pull, if any, in the 3rd q when we were getting assaulted?

 

[Superstar swan]

First Milera flat out calls us a rabble

Then Toby talks shit about papley/us at ht.

The amount of disrespect that oppo has publicly shown us this year is telling , and shows where we are as entire club

 

[Superstar swan]

What moves did Cox pull, if any, in the 3rd q when we were getting assaulted?

Hel make his move on Thursday when he brings Ladhams in

Followed by the Ladhams out and Francis in the following week

 

[TheGoatBaron]

Instead of using this shit as fuel for the second half, instead what do we do? We capitulate

Last year, it was slow starts, this glaring deficiency was hidden because we kept on winning. Now it’s the inability to stop large run ons. Why does it take awhile to sort shit out?

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1372655

 

[Kbroome]

You keep saying this without taking account of the fixture.

Would that same team have done as well against hawthorn Collingwood and Brisbane or was it doing well against st kilda north and Fremantle.

The last five weeks in part reflected getting more best 22 back but in part reflected playing teams that were poor or average. It’s a weird table this year because there are no upsets because the gap between 10 and 18 is very large.

Lets look at the teams we have played and their average for the year compared to what we held them to

GWS +11, NM -23, STK +7, FRE -1, WB -2, PA -24, RIC -29

Thats -8.7 points per game under the average of what these teams have scored.


Over 2025 we have scored 2.7 less goals per game compared to 2024.
In the last 10 games we are down 3 goals per game compared to 2024
In the last 5 games we are down 1.6 goals per game compared to 2024

Defensively:
Over 2025 we have conceded 1.3 more goals per game compared to 2024
In the last 10 games we have conceded 1.3 more goals per game compared to 2024
In the last 5 games we have conceded 1.4 goals per game compared to 2025

Its clear to me that over a longer sample size the defence is better than the offence. Yes its hard to judge with the massive amount of injuries but I think if we get better goal kicking it will impact more than a lockdown key defender + I think a KPF is more gettable than a KPD.

I understand you points that the defence can improve because in theory pretty much everything can improve I just think looking at our squad as a whole that a reliable goal scorer up forward that kick straight would be a bigger improvement

 

[Kbroome]

Instead of using this shit as fuel for the second half, instead what do we do? We capitulate

Last year, it was slow starts, this glaring deficiency was hidden because we kept on winning. Now it’s the inability to stop large run ons. Why does it take awhile to sort shit out?

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1372655

We have gone from being deadily accurate field and goal kicks to not being able to hit a barn door from 5 yards away.

 

[TheGoatBaron]

Also, Toby Greene

4

Toby Greene

Age

32

Ht

182cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.7

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

10.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.2

4star

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.8

4star

T

1.0

2star

G

2.3

5star

D

26.6

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

14.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.6

5star

G

0.0

1star

is a grub

 

[melbournehammer]

Lets look at the teams we have played and their average for the year compared to what we held them to

GWS +11, NM -23, STK +7, FRE -1, WB -2, PA -24, RIC -29

Thats -8.7 points per game under the average of what these teams have scored.


Over 2025 we have scored 2.7 less goals per game compared to 2024.
In the last 10 games we are down 3 goals per game compared to 2024
In the last 5 games we are down 1.6 goals per game compared to 2024

Defensively:
Over 2025 we have conceded 1.3 more goals per game compared to 2024
In the last 10 games we have conceded 1.3 more goals per game compared to 2024
In the last 5 games we have conceded 1.4 goals per game compared to 2025

Its clear to me that over a longer sample size the defence is better than the offence. Yes its hard to judge with the massive amount of injuries but I think if we get better goal kicking it will impact more than a lockdown key defender + I think a KPF is more gettable than a KPD.

I understand you points that the defence can improve because in theory pretty much everything can improve I just think looking at our squad as a whole that a reliable goal scorer up forward that kick straight would be a bigger improvement

While not at all convinced I give kudos to the statistical efforts.

Do you have similar stats on expected scores or inside fifty conversion ?

 

[The King!]

He was doing to us what Chad and heeney do to others.

The difference is they have kpp at either end who can mark it and we don’t. If he misses a target and turns it over their back six will get it. And if kicks it forward they’ll mark it or bring it ground.

The frustration I feel from the failures of 2022 and 2024 must be equally large for those who played in both matches but we never fixed the issues - we don’t have a reliable marking defender such as Tom barass. We don’t have a ball winning mid such as lachy Neale and we don’t have athletic tall forwards. We have a lot of guys who try hard all over the ground and heeney who if he has an ordinary game - see gf 2024 or last night - we have nothing behind it.

Their dominance in the centre square in the third quarter was like ports last year, like brisbanes in 2024 and Geelong in 2022.

Geelong in 23, Gold Coast this year, Adelaide this year , there are others, some we manage to tidy up a little, but we are susceptible to that huge burst where the floodgates open. You can even make a case in mini bursts the last two v Stkilda and even bloody North we go to sleep and seem on the back foot for long patches, we then overwhelm shittier sides usually with some heroics from a few. Maybe that’s a bit negative, but I think this patches of absolute crap footy has been a Swans staple for a long time. Which is odd considering how good we have been. maybe I’m just misremembering

 

[Superstar swan]

What the most disappointing is the way we lose , rarely do we tough out a game. It’s just roll over and get humiliated. Time and time again.

That’s the part that hurts

 

[Tedeski]

There is a reason we look so much better with Amartey there this year, even if he’s not a world beater. Having an athletic forward makes such a structural difference when you’re moving the ball quickly.

But there are other ways - this list just drops the bundle when Plan A stops working.

Because Plan B & Plan C are just just Plan A a few of our bloke switching positions & Mills & Papley showing leadership by bumping over & chesting players when the game is not going & the clock has stopped. Pre game is their false toughness specialty.
This all started when a piss weak Carlton touched us up at the MCG SOME 8 years ago & introduced by some ballerina at our club that takes the group for sessions with mouthguards.

 

[Kbroome]

While not at all convinced I give kudos to the statistical efforts.

Do you have similar stats on expected scores or inside fifty conversion ?

Just looked quickly at the scoring accuracy and its pretty damning on the offence end

2024: 52.9% (5th)

2025: 44.9% (15th)

L10: 45.1% (12th)

L5: 50.8% (6th)

I will say it isn't a black and white offence needs improvement and the defence doesn't. I think the team needs a restructure tbh to have less flankers. I do think your correct that a #1 KPD would help the side, I just think that getting the #1 KPF is easier (Curnow + JUH both want a move).

Fair points and a great discussion so far