Recommitted Paddy Dow [OOC 2023] explored his options, but stayed

[Lore]

I reckon you could try having a serious conversation and refuting Taylor’s points instead of playing the woman.

Thanks.

 

[Taylor]

Run the numbers yourself.

$13,400,000 salary cap, roughly 40 players. Min salary $100,000.

Twenty two players earning it all = $609,000 each
Evenly spread between all = $335,000 each
All non top 22 players earning $100k only = $527,000 for top 22 players

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Run the numbers yourself.

$13,400,000 salary cap, roughly 40 players. Min salary $100,000.

Twenty two players earning it all = $609,000 each
Evenly spread between all = $335,000 each
All non top 22 players earning $100k only = $527,000 for top 22 players

This is the same for every club... I hardly think Paddy Dow is going to be the straw that breaks the camels back... he is likely already on that money after extending his first contract and would only be leaving for opportunity. We have plenty of players who would be on minimal dollars as theyve come through rookie pathways and spend large chunks of time in the VFL.

 

[Taylor]

This is the same for every club... I hardly think Paddy Dow is going to be the straw that breaks the camels back... he is likely already on that money after extending his first contract and would only be leaving for opportunity. We have plenty of players who would be on minimal dollars as theyve come through rookie pathways and spend large chunks of time in the VFL.

My argument is that Dow could be pried loose with $400,000 a year because that's too much money for Carlton to offer a contract for a not best twenty two player.

 

[Jeremias]

Do you dispute the figure that $400,000 is best twenty two money?

No, I believe that's above average wage so there would be plenty of 'best 22' players on that amount.

Or do you disagree on the numbers for paying the entire salary cap to the top 22 players and every other player only makes $100,000?

If that's the way you want to do your rough calculations, that's fine.

For clarity, this is what I disagree with:

I don't think Carlton have any room to sign him on a deal close to what another will offer him, and that won't be big either.

And I told you exactly why.

You don't know what our salary cap looks like. Sure, you can guess, but given your history on the topic I'm not sure that adds much, nor is it particularly accurate if you ignore certain factors that I've raised.

What do you think of Dow as a footballer? Has he all of a sudden gone up a cog or three in your estimations? If so, why?
Let's be real. Nobody is offering Dow a contract that blows Carlton out of the water. He may not be at Carlton next year, but if we want to sign him and he wants to stay, it'll get done - and it won't break our cap to do it as you seem to be suggesting.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

My argument is that Dow could be pried loose with $400,000 a year because that's too much money for Carlton to offer a contract for a not best twenty two player.

And why would any other club offer $400,000 for a non best 22 player?

 

[Taylor]

And why would any other club offer $400,000 for a non best 22 player?

They would clearly be offering opportunity. Not every club is as stacked in the middle as Carlton. They will pay him accordingly, but it's not going to be a $800,000 a year first round pick in trade exchange.

 

[juss]

People need to get 2 things

1. Dow isn't going to be offered a significantly big can't refuse financial offer from anyone, these sorts of players don't leave for the extra $30k after tax per year they might get elsewhere.

2. Dow if anything, will leave because he isn't guaranteed games at Carlton or time in his position and would be looking for more opportunity where is more assured of playing AFL, not VFL.

It's the Dan Butler, Jack Higgins, Coleman-Jones, Mabior Chol

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Mabior Chol

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28

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200cm

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98kg

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Fwd

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7.5

2star

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5.3

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2.2

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2.3

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2.7

4star

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0.8

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8.0

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6.0

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2.0

1star

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2.3

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2.3

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0.7

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9.2

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6.8

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2.4

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3.2

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1.8

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1.2

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type move, it's not because they are offered big dollars, it's because they can go to another club and get games and gametime.

Carlton have a strong midfield and recently Walsh, Cerra, Kennedy, Hewitt have all come on in the last year or two and it's made it a lot harder for Dow to get AFL games. These guys spend their lives growing up wanting to play AFL, that opportunity is worth a hell of a lot more than a bit of extra money, especially when you're already on hundreds of thousands a year either way.

The most likely way Carlton keep him is not upping their offer by 40k a year, it's by playing him in the AFL team.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

People need to get 2 things

1. Dow isn't going to be offered a significantly big can't refuse financial offer from anyone, these sorts of players don't leave for the extra $30k after tax per year they might get elsewhere.

2. Dow if anything, will leave because he isn't guaranteed games at Carlton or time in his position and would be looking for more opportunity where is more assured of playing AFL, not VFL.

It's the Dan Butler, Jack Higgins, Coleman-Jones, Mabior Chol type move, it's not because they are offered big dollars, it's because they can go to another club and get games and gametime.

Carlton have a strong midfield and recently Walsh, Cerra, Kennedy, Hewitt have all come on in the last year or two and it's made it a lot harder for Dow to get AFL games. These guys spend their lives growing up wanting to play AFL, that opportunity is worth a hell of a lot more than a bit of extra money, especially when you're already on hundreds of thousands a year either way.

Thank you for putting it in such simple terms. If someones crazy enough to offer him 500k a year then they can go right ahead. His form in the VFL is bananas at the moment and he's always shown an ability to impact AFL games for patches, but he would know as well as anyone that its on himself to find the consistency in his game to perform at an elite level if he wants to break into the midfield right now.

He's arguably our most talented mid behind Cripps and Walsh. Hewett Cerra and Kennedy are real work horse types but Dow has explosiveness and game breaking ability... for whatever reason though hes simply never found any consistency at AFL level doing that - 10 minutes of game breaking stuff here, 5 minutes there... for the large part hes just a patchy player whos never been able to find consistency in his offensive ability nor his defensive work.

Others may disagree but I certainly don't see a world in which Matt Kennedy would be keeping him out of the midfield if Dow was playing at his absolute best for 4 qtrs throughout games. Not to discredit Kennedy whos been monumental for us this year, but Dow has Danger type explosiveness and is probably a better clearance player overall. Until he shows he can perform for 4 quarters though im picking Kennedy all day long no questions asked. Kennedy gives it his absolute all every week and works hard defensively too.

 

[Tulip]

For a player that is supposedly got 'very little value' sure has a lot of suitors. If he wants to leave, early 2nd round pick or we just send him to the PSD, we will not accept the poor return The Dogs got for Lipniski.

Very confident he stays at Carlton anyway,esp as it now appears our flag window is about to open.

Why would Carlton do that? Of course they’ll take the pick. Dow has been big average at AFL level for years now. The fact that he’s dominating at VFL level is nothing new, except that now he has little way to make the team because Carlton are coming good.

 

[Tulip]

How much money do we have out of curiosity? You seem to know plenty about our cap.

Lol mate, you don’t need to be a genius to see it. You’ve brought in a lot of highly paid recruits, even if guys like Cerra took a bit less to make sure they got home.

I understand the feeling of coming good after years of being trash, but that doesn’t mean every average player like Dow will jet you a good pick or that guys will all take pay cuts to bring in even more top line talent. Melbourne was a basket case 3 years ago and now everyone is talking about shaking loose Angus Brayshaw with a huge contract offer. Your good players become more valuable, unfortunately, as opposed to bad ones becoming worth anything great

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Not versatile, no tank and poor user under pressure. Not sure he's a long term piece for anyone. Perhaps he could get opportunity at Richmond/

 

[Jcpdragonx]

I reckon Collingwood could be interested.

By adding him and Lipinski, it could be a real shortcut for us to rebuild our midfield (assuming Dow can actually step up at AFL level).

Probably worth a tad more than Lipinski, simply due to draft position. So maybe a pick in the 30’s.

Lipinski has performed ok at AFL level out of position, Dow has struggled in position at AFL level, and been a liability out of position.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Sounds like similar issues that we have with Collier-Dawkins, though Dow is a lot more productive than RCD at the lower level, and RCD doesn't have any issues with disposal efficiency.

RCD doesn't seem to have that natural will to push himself with gut running, like you see from someone like Walsh for example. Sounds like Dow may have the same flaw - which can be fixed imo.

RCD has contested ball as his one wood, he has no spread, poor work rate and thought his disposal was atrocious last year. Both Dow and RCD have been in the system long enough to fix their tank.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I wouldnt be surprised if he leaves. Our midfield is deep and he will struggle to get a game despite dominating the vfl.

Reckon Geelong might have a crack. They lack young talent and he would be a free hit for them plus he is from the area.

Reckon we would only get a 3rd rounder or late 2nd at most. Bad value for us but clubs usually let fringe players go if they can find more opportunitty elsewhere.

Agree on all of that.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

RCD has contested ball as his one wood, he has no spread, poor work rate and thought his disposal was atrocious last year. Both Dow and RCD have been in the system long enough to fix their tank.

Dows tank is fine. His actual distance covered during games was in our top handful in games last year just below 15km a game which is decent for a young inside mid. If im being completely honest and this could sound ludicrous but I actually believe his issue of looking gassed at stages in games was to do with our game plan under Teague. We had no defensive system at all and at times would be watching our big inside mids covering space where they would have to chase an Ed Langdon type up and down the ground out wide to try to apply pressure which is a hopeless task even for the top endurance runners - leaving them too gassed in other contests when they need the spring in their step to remain dynamic.

We will see under Voss as Im positive he'll find his way into the team at one point during the year due to injury or covid.

 

[The Kings Ransom]

Surely Paddy’s choice just comes down to opportunity.

If he plays regularly enough to satisfy him = he stays.

If he doesn’t play many AFL games = he leaves for any of a number of other teams offering more opportunity.

I think given some positive traits there would be a few teams willing to give him a go despite the significant flaws. If he wanted to leave because he’d played mostly VFL it wouldn’t take much in a trade.

As for his VFL form - literally ever other semi mature midfielder has virtually the same numbers - see Mathieson, Clarke, West, Brown etc..

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Lol mate, you don’t need to be a genius to see it. You’ve brought in a lot of highly paid recruits, even if guys like Cerra took a bit less to make sure they got home.

I understand the feeling of coming good after years of being trash, but that doesn’t mean every average player like Dow will jet you a good pick or that guys will all take pay cuts to bring in even more top line talent. Melbourne was a basket case 3 years ago and now everyone is talking about shaking loose Angus Brayshaw with a huge contract offer. Your good players become more valuable, unfortunately, as opposed to bad ones becoming worth anything great

We also lost four senior best 25 players last year through retirement.

No point pretending to know what’s going on with Carlton’s cap, or any clubs for that matter. There is too much misinformation in the media to bother.

Dow is a below average player as it stands. Our cap may well be tight but I can’t imagine we’ll struggle to fit him in if he wants to hang around.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

And why would any other club offer $400,000 for a non best 22 player?

Clubs always pay above average wage for token 5th rounders

Let’s have it both ways.

 

[Kangas_11]

Straight swap for Ben McKay at NM, or include a future pick with the deal. Carlton need another KPD more than anything

Great idea, North are flush with young KPD's and really need more inside mids with questionable disposal, so this just makes sense.

 

[Tulip]

We also lost four senior best 25 players last year through retirement.

Murphy, Jones, Betts? Who is the fourth?

I’m sure Jones’ retirement would have freed up some decent money given he was apparently well paid, but then Betts and Murphy wouldn’t have been on much given their age.

The problems come when previously below average players like Matt Kennedy need to be paid in line with what they’re showing now. I could see a team like Sydney offering him decent coin next year to replace JPK. Carlton would obviously want to match it if he holds his form, but the money goes quick.

 

[tiger_tough]

All this talk about money is pointless. If he leaves it will be for opportunity, not for the money. If he wants to stay at Carlton and Carlton want him then they'll get a deal done. If he only plays a handful of games then it's probably in his best interests to move on.

I can only see us interested if Edwards and Cotchin both hang up the boots, which is a fair chance at this stage.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Murphy, Jones, Betts? Who is the fourth?

I’m sure Jones’ retirement would have freed up some decent money given he was apparently well paid, but then Betts and Murphy wouldn’t have been on much given their age.

The problems come when previously below average players like Matt Kennedy need to be paid in line with what they’re showing now. I could see a team like Sydney offering him decent coin next year to replace JPK. Carlton would obviously want to match it if he holds his form, but the money goes quick.

Casboult.

Sounds like a good problem to have.

 

[bluebaggerjuls]

so apparently paddy dow

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Paddy Dow

Age

26

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184cm

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83kg

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Mid

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14.1

4star

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7.0

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7.1

4star

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2.1

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2.9

4star

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2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

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4.0

1star

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3.0

2star

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3.0

3star

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2.0

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0.0

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12.4

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5.8

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6.6

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1.6

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2.8

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2.6

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is worth nothing but hes going to leave for the money. Something doesnt add up here

 

[Foxman98]

so apparently paddy dow is worth nothing but hes going to leave for the money. Something doesnt add up here

Paddy Dow is worth nothing and will be offered nowhere near 400k over 3-4 years. He will be lucky to get a 250-300k over 2 years. If he leaves it will be for either more opportunity or a fresh start as he clearly has done very little at Carlton and hasn't remotely gone close to cementing a place in the team