What do you think a pass mark for North should be in 2026? Last year they finished 16th which is their highest ladder finish since 2019 and would have finished higher if not for bottling games against Brisbane, Essendon and Port Adelaide which they probably should have won. The loss to Geelong was bad but Clarkson has always struggled to beat Chris Scott and North in previous years would have far more of those bad games so there is evidence of North beginning to turn the corner. I remember Melbourne's first year under Paul Roos and despite their low ladder position they only had one bad loss to West Coast so you could see they were improving as Melbourne would cop regular thrashings before Roos arrived.
Pass mark for North in 2026
- Thread starter LeBronco
- Start date
- Tagged users None
🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.
SSSSSS
Brownlow Medallist
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2011
- Posts
- 28,832
- Reaction score
- 74,495
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
- Other Teams
- Six decades of domination
It should be finals at this point of a rebuild but that isn't happening.
They've got a piss easy draw this season.
They must bank six wins minimum against the double ups with the Eagles, Essendon and Richmond.
If they can bank another 2/3 wins against the likes of Port, Saints or Dees at Marvel, I think I would be reasonably okay with this.
A couple of real character building underdog wins against much higher rated opponents would be the cherry on top.
Eight wins minimum.
They've got a piss easy draw this season.
They must bank six wins minimum against the double ups with the Eagles, Essendon and Richmond.
If they can bank another 2/3 wins against the likes of Port, Saints or Dees at Marvel, I think I would be reasonably okay with this.
A couple of real character building underdog wins against much higher rated opponents would be the cherry on top.
Eight wins minimum.
- Joined
- Jul 5, 2013
- Posts
- 10,933
- Reaction score
- 20,226
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
Above 12th
Log in to remove this Banner Ad
8 wins is probably the pass mark. However, I don't see any way of reaching that.
I struggle to find more than 4 on ladder predictors, and expect maybe six.
No way known do North beat Port (well, maybe in round one shenanigans when teams are finding their feet) and still haven't won in SA away from Football Park; probably split the Richmond and West Coast games (maybe go in 60% favourites in both games against WC so at this point around 35% chance of winning both) and won't beat Essendon.
Melbourne look like sliding and could easily have a bad day again, St Kilda are later in the season when they should have their shit together and be a top half team on form. Other than that, anything would be a major upset.
We're still well and truly bottom three quality. Its just that Melbourne, and at an outside chance Essendon, might drop below and only three can fit in the bottom three.
I struggle to find more than 4 on ladder predictors, and expect maybe six.
No way known do North beat Port (well, maybe in round one shenanigans when teams are finding their feet) and still haven't won in SA away from Football Park; probably split the Richmond and West Coast games (maybe go in 60% favourites in both games against WC so at this point around 35% chance of winning both) and won't beat Essendon.
Melbourne look like sliding and could easily have a bad day again, St Kilda are later in the season when they should have their shit together and be a top half team on form. Other than that, anything would be a major upset.
We're still well and truly bottom three quality. Its just that Melbourne, and at an outside chance Essendon, might drop below and only three can fit in the bottom three.
The Nostradamus
Flagroos
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2010
- Posts
- 53,813
- Reaction score
- 66,638
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Wildcard round
Seattle Mariners
Club Legend
- Joined
- Sep 14, 2022
- Posts
- 1,328
- Reaction score
- 2,037
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
8 wins. Percentage of at least 87.
Spirit Level
Campaigner
- Joined
- Mar 26, 2012
- Posts
- 12,168
- Reaction score
- 22,700
- Location
- Block 123
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
- Other Teams
- FC St. Pauli, Dallas Cowboys, Red Wings
Finances in the black
- Joined
- Aug 17, 2009
- Posts
- 4,414
- Reaction score
- 7,853
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
Surely top 10.
Turned a profit for 15 years in a row peanut
Spirit Level
Campaigner
- Joined
- Mar 26, 2012
- Posts
- 12,168
- Reaction score
- 22,700
- Location
- Block 123
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
- Other Teams
- FC St. Pauli, Dallas Cowboys, Red Wings
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2010
- Posts
- 36,392
- Reaction score
- 23,918
- Location
- Adelaide
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- #BostonStrong #RiseUp
Back-to-Back-to-Back
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2010
- Posts
- 36,392
- Reaction score
- 23,918
- Location
- Adelaide
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- #BostonStrong #RiseUp
But they're debt free (Ignores the fact their expenses are stupid low that they're basically competing on a VFL budget)
Spirit Level
Campaigner
- Joined
- Mar 26, 2012
- Posts
- 12,168
- Reaction score
- 22,700
- Location
- Block 123
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
- Other Teams
- FC St. Pauli, Dallas Cowboys, Red Wings
Also how much do they get in handouts from the AFL? That counts as revenue right?
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2017
- Posts
- 19,248
- Reaction score
- 19,955
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Finishing outside the bottom 6.
- Joined
- Nov 1, 2021
- Posts
- 4,785
- Reaction score
- 7,910
- AFL Club
- Essendon
They’re long overdue. I can’t see them getting much done with that horrendous backline though….
🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.
Toffee Lion
BigFooty Rising Star
- Joined
- Oct 10, 2011
- Posts
- 19,566
- Reaction score
- 27,200
- Location
- Melbourne
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- Everton, Bucks, Packers
I'm pretty confident they'll make the 8. May get proven wrong and laughed at come end of season but a lot of data suggests they can do it. In terms of an actual "pass mark" though, probably 8+ wins.
Even just the history of a bottom 3-4 team making the jump the following year is hard to ignore, which I'd back them in over Essendon/Richmond/Eagles. (Think Richmond will make the Top 8 in 2027 after one more bottom 4 year).
2024 - Adelaide 15th
2025 - Adelaide 1st
2023 - Hawthorn 16th
2024 - Hawthorn 7th
2022 - GWS 16th
2023 - GWS 7th
2021 - Collingwood 17th
2022 - Collingwood 4th
2020 - Sydney 16th
2021 - Sydney 6th
2019 - N/A
2020 - N/A
2018 - Brisbane 15th
2019 - Brisbane 2nd
Now if they end up in the N/A category like 2019/2020, it's very likely they'll just make the jump the year after IMO. More data to suggest they're ready to jump up the ladder is their improved percentage, going from 63.5% in 24' to 76.3% in 25'.
Brisbane finished last with 5 wins - 17 losses at 74% in 2017. In 2018 we finished with the same record but with a percentange of 89%, a similar jump from 24 to 25 for the Roos (Albeit much higher than the Roos 25' %). Lions then made the Top 8 (2nd) the next year, let's see if the Roos can do something similar.
Even just the history of a bottom 3-4 team making the jump the following year is hard to ignore, which I'd back them in over Essendon/Richmond/Eagles. (Think Richmond will make the Top 8 in 2027 after one more bottom 4 year).
2024 - Adelaide 15th
2025 - Adelaide 1st
2023 - Hawthorn 16th
2024 - Hawthorn 7th
2022 - GWS 16th
2023 - GWS 7th
2021 - Collingwood 17th
2022 - Collingwood 4th
2020 - Sydney 16th
2021 - Sydney 6th
2019 - N/A
2020 - N/A
2018 - Brisbane 15th
2019 - Brisbane 2nd
Now if they end up in the N/A category like 2019/2020, it's very likely they'll just make the jump the year after IMO. More data to suggest they're ready to jump up the ladder is their improved percentage, going from 63.5% in 24' to 76.3% in 25'.
Brisbane finished last with 5 wins - 17 losses at 74% in 2017. In 2018 we finished with the same record but with a percentange of 89%, a similar jump from 24 to 25 for the Roos (Albeit much higher than the Roos 25' %). Lions then made the Top 8 (2nd) the next year, let's see if the Roos can do something similar.
- Joined
- May 20, 2023
- Posts
- 10,194
- Reaction score
- 11,008
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
Adelaide were 10th in 2023 11 wins, with the goal furore v Sydney probably costing them a finals spot.
Hawthorn 13th 2022 8 wins
GWS 7th 2021
Collingwood 8th 2020
Sydney 15th 2019 8 wins
So finals or at least 8 wins the year before, then a dip before finals for all those examples the last 6 years.
North haven’t recorded 8 wins over a two year stretch in the same period.
They should improve, but finals (ie 8th not wildcard 10th crap) are a pipe dream.
Re the OP, if they beat Port Adelaide Round 1 then that’s a pass mark.
- Joined
- Sep 20, 2009
- Posts
- 13,815
- Reaction score
- 23,998
- AFL Club
- Geelong
8-9 wins with a percentage pushing 90%.
Basically no uncompetitive beltings, they win the games they are expected to win, they match well with the 10th->14th type teams, and get an upset win against a 'better' opponent.
Basically no uncompetitive beltings, they win the games they are expected to win, they match well with the 10th->14th type teams, and get an upset win against a 'better' opponent.
- Joined
- Sep 18, 2003
- Posts
- 7,505
- Reaction score
- 7,966
- Location
- Sydney
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Other Teams
- TIGERS
I would have thought 10 wins and break even percentage is where they need to be. Any less and it would warrant a review across the board with jobs on the line.
Last year was 5 wins and 76%. It's going to be tough for them to get to the 10 wins and 100% but imo, they need to mark themselves hard this year. No more get out jail cards for anyone...whether it be Clarkson and his coaching staff, the administration and the playing list.
Last year was 5 wins and 76%. It's going to be tough for them to get to the 10 wins and 100% but imo, they need to mark themselves hard this year. No more get out jail cards for anyone...whether it be Clarkson and his coaching staff, the administration and the playing list.
