List Mgmt. Pick 9

[HBF]

Dylan Stephens at 9, trade next years 1st round for around 15 and 25 back if Weightman is available at 15 and take Dylan Williams at 25, Add those 3 on top of Martin and Betts and we'll have the most dangerous team in finals once we get there, Xfactor alllllllll over them.

Is Stephens going to make it to 9 though. Not sure he will.

 

[HBF]

I would jump at #9 for #19+#39 and even throw in pick #56

Thankfully J isn't our list manager. Thats a poor deal for Carlton. Very poor!

 

[Eiffel 65]

Gray is in the mix now? Eiffel65?

I don't know what the clubs intentions are but you'd think that given we missed our on Papley, Sam Gray would be looked at.

There appears to be a chance he could still be delisted.

Fits the age demographic we're looking for and can play as a genuine small forward.

Port Adelaide small forward Sam Gray still garnering rival interest as possible delisting looms

Port Adelaide small forward still garnering rival interest as possible delisting looms

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[bmaurizio]

Thankfully J isn't our list manager. Thats a poor deal for Carlton. Very poor!

Agree no way would one do above deal, if Suns are seriously looking at our pick9, then perhaps swap of our pick with 15 & 24, also release Jack Martin without kerfuffle.

 

[Jeremias]

I was originally leaning towards that strategy, but if we add Newnes, Gray and Martin, our squad will already start to look a lot deeper.

The other thing is that top 10 picks will start to become non-existent for us in a year or two when we start making finals.

If we want another pick, trade our 2020 2nd rounder into this years draft.

Keep in mind we're potentially gaining between 3-5 starting 22 players and only losing 1 (Dale Thomas).

I'm starting to find it difficult to name a best 22.

Gray? We were linked earlier in the year but all seems very quiet on that front. Last I heard he is likely to accept a new one year deal at Port. Do you have any info to the contrary?

Not sure our 2020 2nd will hold much value, given our expected improvement and the compromised nature of next year's draft.

Jeremias in my observations the earlier pick in the trade seems to bring a premium above the points approach. If it’s worth 1469 you can probably add 400-500 on what ‘trading down’ would generate.

Not a long way off 15 and 20.....

Yes, that's true. Points provide an indication only and it makes sense the more valuable asset is the higher pick.

I am pretty certain offers will come for that pick 9, if they haven't already. It'll be very interesting to see whether we trade it, and if we do, what for.

Thankfully J isn't our list manager. Thats a poor deal for Carlton. Very poor!

I did make it clear I wasn't suggesting any of them as realistic trades, just putting forward what they would look like as equivalent points values.

But I forgot you're a little slower than most around here, so I accept I should have made it even clearer for you.

 

[ray8182]

Except - to follow your analogy - where you see that, what I see is an excessively diversified portfolio coupled with inadequate attention provided to key business areas necessary to turn a profit, and hoping that strengths in other areas will paper over the cracks.

This is also where metaphors begin to cease being useful. We're talking a list, and taking an investment's view of a list when there are only a certain number of positions and players possible, and you have far less options to manipulate your list over a single trade/draft period, and what stocks would be safe/conservative choices do not suddenly suffer from sudden dropoffs in performance (all things being equal) the way senior players can. Judd went from a titan onfield to being injury prone and done within the space of 1.5 seasons.

Painting a current portrait of the team, we have 3 capable AFL top tier midfielders in Murphy, Cripps and Walsh; Ed is useful, but is not an A grader; plenty of people can and will take exception to this, and that's fine. Outside of this, we have Gibbons, Fisher, LOB, Stocker, Kennedy, Setterfield, Dow, SPS. If we're talking genuine inside mids - seeing as Deven Robertson is the sticking point here, and I don't want to spend pick 9 on him - we have Cripps, Kennedy and Stocker, SPS; Kennedy has not displayed inside potential for a whole match at AFL level, and nor has Stocker. SPS has done so for a single game, and that was as outside an inside game can be; he will in all probability become a mixed mid anyway (in/out) due to his skillset. Dow has done it as a junior, but he is more useful potentially as an in/out mid, and he's never earned possessions above 25 in a game of AFL footy. Jack is not an inside mid yet, either; he's capable enough, and if we were to swing him in there to attempt to find one of those 2-4 mids I feel we lack and to free up one of the others, I'd not be opposed.

So, in summary, we have 2 players of the younger list who can play inside at an AFL level if we take away Murphy and Ed, only if one counts Walsh who is more a balanced mid.

Your post also ignores the diversity of talent that can exist within a midfield. We are in small danger of becoming another St Kilda, full of similar types, but we are in real danger of becoming a 2016-18 Adelaide, minus the camp nonsense.

Looks like we will have to agree to disagree on portfolio management and Carlton’s list.


When hawthorn won there 3 premierships how many inside midfielders do you think they had?

Mitchell
Lewis
Hodge

We’re there many after that?


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[Jimmae]

Gould and Kemp are interesting despite a lack of obvious need.

Understand why people like Ash, but despite his genuinely elite kicking skills, lacks agility or power, and barely takes the game on with his run. Would be a full-time midfielder if he had a better read of the game. IMO this is Andy McGrath all over again, which isn't to say either are busts, just not worth the premium being earmarked for them.

 

[TerryWallet]

Gould and Kemp are interesting despite a lack of obvious need.

Understand why people like Ash, but despite his genuinely elite kicking skills, lacks agility or power, and barely takes the game on with his run. Would be a full-time midfielder if he had a better read of the game. IMO this is Andy McGrath all over again, which isn't to say either are busts, just not worth the premium being earmarked for them.

Agree with that on Ash. I reckon he's being talked up above his actual game and attributes. Lot of Zak Jones about him to me. Bit of dash now and then but not a lot else outstanding. Not sure i'd even call his kicking elite.

I have him towards the back end of the evenish 3-15 bunch. In fact i have him 15.

 

[Gethelred]

Looks like we will have to agree to disagree on portfolio management and Carlton’s list.


When hawthorn won there 3 premierships how many inside midfielders do you think they had?

Mitchell
Lewis
Hodge

We’re there many after that?


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Which - if you're paying attention - you'll notice were all roughly around the same age (Lewis is 33, Mitchell 37, Hodge 35). Cripps is 25 at the start of next year, but Murphy and Ed are not; nor is Ed an A grader. From the next group down, we lack a proven inside midfielder.

In addition, Hawthorn's strength was borne of other things than inside dominance, and it's somewhat disingenuous to use how few inside mids they had to justify not selecting one in the draft. Their entire clearance setup was negative and designed to place inordinate amounts of pressure on their opponents to cough up the ball, and they never gave it back. If I were going to take the same tack, albeit from another direction, how many inside mids did the dogs use in 2016? Sydney in 2005 and 2012? Collingwood in 2010?

If someone proves themselves next season, that's one thing. The issue I have is purely that while I can accept that there will be improvement - which is something of a given, provided our list demographics - what I cannot see is such dramatic improvement to replace Ed and Murph within 2 seasons.

I'm perfectly content to agree to disagree.

 

[ray8182]

Which - if you're paying attention - you'll notice were all roughly around the same age (Lewis is 33, Mitchell 37, Hodge 35). Cripps is 25 at the start of next year, but Murphy and Ed are not; nor is Ed an A grader. From the next group down, we lack a proven inside midfielder.

In addition, Hawthorn's strength was borne of other things than inside dominance, and it's somewhat disingenuous to use how few inside mids they had to justify not selecting one in the draft. Their entire clearance setup was negative and designed to place inordinate amounts of pressure on their opponents to cough up the ball, and they never gave it back. If I were going to take the same tack, albeit from another direction, how many inside mids did the dogs use in 2016? Sydney in 2005 and 2012? Collingwood in 2010?

If someone proves themselves next season, that's one thing. The issue I have is purely that while I can accept that there will be improvement - which is something of a given, provided our list demographics - what I cannot see is such dramatic improvement to replace Ed and Murph within 2 seasons.

I'm perfectly content to agree to disagree.

Bulldogs 2016 inside mids
Bont
Liberatore
McCrae
Hunter not sure if inside

Picken played forward
Dunkley played forward


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[GoBlues!]

Agree with that on Ash. I reckon he's being talked up above his actual game and attributes. Lot of Zak Jones about him to me. Bit of dash now and then but not a lot else outstanding. Not sure i'd even call his kicking elite.

I have him towards the back end of the evenish 3-15 bunch. In fact i have him 15.

I don't know much about this year's group TW. Who are we looking at around the 9-10 range?

 

[HBF]

Still want Kemp

 

[Eiffel 65]

Gray? We were linked earlier in the year but all seems very quiet on that front. Last I heard he is likely to accept a new one year deal at Port. Do you have any info to the contrary?

Not sure our 2020 2nd will hold much value, given our expected improvement and the compromised nature of next year's draft.

I have absolutely no inside information or connections with the club.

As an external observer, it seemed as though our interest in Gray and Butler faded as it became clearer that Papley, Martin and Betts were going to nominate us. The addition of either Gray or Butler would have seen them spend more time at VFL than AFL had all three trades gone through.

Now that Papley has fallen through, there is a genuine opportunity for a small forward in our team. Port have a few of his type, so Gray may end up falling down the pecking order. Could see a Jack Newnes type situation where he decides to pursue opportunities elsewhere despite having a contract in front of him.

As for obtaining a second rounder in this year's draft, there are three clear opportunities that could present without trading down the order:

1. Hawthorn's pick 30 (629 points): If a bid for Finn Maginness falls after their first rounder between picks 12-30, Hawthorn may wish to trade pick 30 for a couple of thirds to help cover a bid of 1000+ points. (picks 43 + 57 + converted future 3rd to 2019 pick) will give Hawthorn a favourable trade and surplus of points to match bids.

2. Port's pick 29 (653 points): Same situation as Hawthorn but with father-son prospect Jackson Mead.

3. Fremantle's pick 22 (845 points): If a bid for NGA prospect Liam Henry falls between 11 to 22, this pick will be consumed to match the bid. An option here is to trade our future second + 2 x 3rd round selections for Frementle's pick 22. This gives Fremantle an opportunity to match the bid with back end picks equating to a similar value, but also transfer their second rounder into a 2020 2nd (effectively gives Freo one additional second round selection).

The advantage for us is that we move our second rounder a year forward and get another year into a player, but also gives us the potential to grab a slider we view as a potential top 12-15 pick.

If we take another player such as Sam Gray, we'll probably only end up taking 3-4 teenagers max. Picks 9 and another top 30 selection would be a good start. Then just take a couple right at the back end of the draft.

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

Which - if you're paying attention - you'll notice were all roughly around the same age (Lewis is 33, Mitchell 37, Hodge 35). Cripps is 25 at the start of next year, but Murphy and Ed are not; nor is Ed an A grader. From the next group down, we lack a proven inside midfielder.

In addition, Hawthorn's strength was borne of other things than inside dominance, and it's somewhat disingenuous to use how few inside mids they had to justify not selecting one in the draft. Their entire clearance setup was negative and designed to place inordinate amounts of pressure on their opponents to cough up the ball, and they never gave it back. If I were going to take the same tack, albeit from another direction, how many inside mids did the dogs use in 2016? Sydney in 2005 and 2012? Collingwood in 2010?

If someone proves themselves next season, that's one thing. The issue I have is purely that while I can accept that there will be improvement - which is something of a given, provided our list demographics - what I cannot see is such dramatic improvement to replace Ed and Murph within 2 seasons.

I'm perfectly content to agree to disagree.

Stocker, Kennedy and Dow are the inside hopes. Wines next year could speed this up.

 

[Eiffel 65]

Still want Kemp

Twomey has linked us with Kemp a couple of times in those draft review videos on the AFL website.

We're either really keen on him or it's all just smoke and mirrors.

 

[Gethelred]

Bulldogs 2016 inside mids
Bont
Liberatore
McCrae
Hunter not sure if inside

Picken played forward
Dunkley played forward


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Doing Bont a bit of a disservice in that year; he was far, far less out than he is now, it was part of what made him so exceptional. Get the ball within the clearance, break away and find a teammate. There were also a good 4-6 more inside players on the list, allowing them to deal with the sheer amount of injuries their list was subject to that season without compromising their pressure gameplan. They went at something ridiculous in that year for contested ball and clearance differential, centreing their gameplan around it.

And you've kind of proven my point for mere here. Does the fact that they were drafted as an inside mid and have the capability to play as one in an AFL context inhibit their ability to play elsewhere on the field if they have the appropriate attributes?

 

[Wily trout]

Not that I am in any way knowledgeable about draft prospects, but from the few things I have read, Luke Jackson sounds like a good ruck prospect especially with comparisons to Brodie. Are we now sorted for a ruck division or could he be a good replacement for Kruezer. I know DeKoning is almost ready for senior time, but is as yet untried.

 

[Gethelred]

Stocker, Kennedy and Dow are the inside hopes. Wines next year could speed this up.

I'm hugely bullish on Stocker. Has good acceleration within a clearance coupled with good agility, but he plays heavy. Reminds me of a more agile Daniel Kerr, but with better skills by foot.

 

[Gethelred]

Not that I am in any way knowledgeable about draft prospects, but from the few things I have read, Luke Jackson sounds like a good ruck prospect especially with comparisons to Brodie. Are we now sorted for a ruck division or could he be a good replacement for Kruezer. I know DeKoning is almost ready for senior time, but is as yet untried.

We have three ruckmen on our list right now (Kreuzer, Pittonet, TDK) with two backups (one genuine break glass in case of emergency in Harry, and one injury cover across the field in Levi).

More ruckman would be a waste, IMO.

 

[smashbox gill]

We have three ruckmen on our list right now (Kreuzer, Pittonet, TDK) with two backups (one genuine break glass in case of emergency in Harry, and one injury cover across the field in Levi).

More ruckman would be a waste, IMO.

I'm not to sure, Krueze and Levi only have a couple years left. A ruckman like Jackson hasnt come around in a while, it may be worthwhile taking someone of his quality

 

[Gethelred]

I'm not to sure, Krueze and Levi only have a couple years left. A ruckman like Jackson hasnt come around in a while, it may be worthwhile taking someone of his quality

When we lose them to retirement is when I'd be looking for a replacement, and no sooner.

Given our sordid history with injuries to ruckmen (or our propensity to select ones that are constantly injured) it will not matter if we have 3 or 10 ruckman on a list of 45, we'll find a way to have them all injured simultaneously somehow. Purely for list balance purposes, we shouldn't have more than what we have on our list at the moment, as while a ruck is necessary they are not pivotal unless they are Grundy, Gawn. We will be far, far better off using the list position to locate a small forward, a lockdown back pocket, or another midfielder to develop, instead of a ruckman that will either displace 1-3 other players if they're good enough or will force the NB's to continue playing with three genuine ruckman at a time, weakening them further as a development side.

 

[ray8182]

Doing Bont a bit of a disservice in that year; he was far, far less out than he is now, it was part of what made him so exceptional. Get the ball within the clearance, break away and find a teammate. There were also a good 4-6 more inside players on the list, allowing them to deal with the sheer amount of injuries their list was subject to that season without compromising their pressure gameplan. They went at something ridiculous in that year for contested ball and clearance differential, centreing their gameplan around it.

And you've kind of proven my point for mere here. Does the fact that they were drafted as an inside mid and have the capability to play as one in an AFL context inhibit their ability to play elsewhere on the field if they have the appropriate attributes?

I’ve basically named 3 core inside mids plus maybe hunter who’s a bit outside accumulator. From a pure inside mid perspective they only had 2, Bont and Liberatore. That’s it.

Picken lm not sure if went into midfield but was a contested type player.

Dunkley did not play as a midfielder but a small/medium forward.

Yes, you have players that play non midfield positions that pinch hit in the midfield. That’s not what we are talking about at pick 9 as l understand it. You are talking about targeting a core specialist inside mid. Teams do not have many of these. Carlton has recruited setterfield, Kennedy, Dow and stocker who played this position specifically as juniors.


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[swuzzlebubble]

Still think we may look to move this pick on draft night.

9 for 23 + 28
9 + 57 for 16 + 34
9 + 43 for 17 + 24
9 + 43 + 57 for 15 + 20
9 + 2020 2nd for 26 + 27 + Melbourne's 2020 1st
9 + 57 for 18 + 29
9 for 19 + 39
9 for 25 + 32

9 + 2020 1st for GC 2020 1st

 

[Gethelred]

I’ve basically named 3 core inside mids plus maybe hunter who’s a bit outside accumulator. From a pure inside mid perspective they only had 2, Bont and Liberatore. That’s it.

Picken lm not sure if went into midfield but was a contested type player.

Dunkley did not play as a midfielder but a small/medium forward.

Yes, you have players that play non midfield positions that pinch hit in the midfield. That’s not what we are talking about at pick 9 as l understand it. You are talking about targeting a core specialist inside mid. Teams do not have many of these. Carlton has recruited setterfield, Kennedy, Dow and stocker who played this position specifically as juniors.


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They had - and still have - many players who were drafted as inside mids, and they found (and are still tinkering with) a balance between their best possible midfield at any given time and the players whose attributes best allow them to rest or play forward or back without loss of output. That team - as a midfield behemoth, rather than a team based off backline or front half strength - demonstrates how inside midfielders in excess only mean that teams simply cannot deny you the ball, and that you can in all probability deny it to them.

I still don't see how this is such a sticking point. What I want from this draft period is Stephens from pick 9, a small forward and an inside mid with our other picks. If that inside mid is Robertson, I would be content with that; if it is someone else, I would also be content with that, provided they are not limited positionally and possess AFL attributes. Stephens adds more pace, pinpoint disposal, and a genuine option in space at all times through the midfield; as we struggle with transition between the arcs, he'd be nearly perfect for us, LOB on one side and him on the other. But I am more concerned for the future, as I've said a number of times, because we will not know exactly when Murphy and Ed will drop off until they do. If others are to pick up the slack, they would need to improve collectively by about 25-30% across the board, and taking for granted that it will just happen is not good management.

 

[Jeremias]

I have absolutely no inside information or connections with the club.

As an external observer, it seemed as though our interest in Gray and Butler faded as it became clearer that Papley, Martin and Betts were going to nominate us. The addition of either Gray or Butler would have seen them spend more time at VFL than AFL had all three trades gone through.

Now that Papley has fallen through, there is a genuine opportunity for a small forward in our team. Port have a few of his type, so Gray may end up falling down the pecking order. Could see a Jack Newnes type situation where he decides to pursue opportunities elsewhere despite having a contract in front of him.

As for obtaining a second rounder in this year's draft, there are three clear opportunities that could present without trading down the order:

1. Hawthorn's pick 30 (629 points): If a bid for Finn Maginness falls after their first rounder between picks 12-30, Hawthorn may wish to trade pick 30 for a couple of thirds to help cover a bid of 1000+ points. (picks 43 + 57 + converted future 3rd to 2019 pick) will give Hawthorn a favourable trade and surplus of points to match bids.

2. Port's pick 29 (653 points): Same situation as Hawthorn but with father-son prospect Jackson Mead.

3. Fremantle's pick 22 (845 points): If a bid for NGA prospect Liam Henry falls between 11 to 22, this pick will be consumed to match the bid. An option here is to trade our future second + 2 x 3rd round selections for Frementle's pick 22. This gives Fremantle an opportunity to match the bid with back end picks equating to a similar value, but also transfer their second rounder into a 2020 2nd (effectively gives Freo one additional second round selection).

The advantage for us is that we move our second rounder a year forward and get another year into a player, but also gives us the potential to grab a slider we view as a potential top 12-15 pick.

If we take another player such as Sam Gray, we'll probably only end up taking 3-4 teenagers max. Picks 9 and another top 30 selection would be a good start. Then just take a couple right at the back end of the draft.

Gray is a decent footballer. Would add another dimension to our forward line as well as to the midfield rotation. I think he'll end up staying at Port but if he's still keen on a fresh start I'd certainly be having a chat to him.

For a team that has been desperate for more experience, adding all of Gray, Newnes, Martin and Betts effectively for free would be a really positive result for the footy club.

Agree with your thoughts on draft picks too. I am keen to reduce the gap between our first and third picks. Teams planning for NGA and F/S bids might provide a good opportunity come draft night.

9 + 2020 1st for GC 2020 1st

No way. We'd want pick 15 coming back to us as well.