Playing List Analysis - 2010

[BigCat2]

So, another year gone, and we've had one of the most interesting off-seasons in memory. We made the finals, but how much have we actually improved?

One way of determining this is to try and analyse the playing list. This has been done a couple of times in the past on this board I think. Though the rookie draft is still to come to round out next year's list, they'll all gone into Class E (see below) so won't make any difference.

For this exercise, I've divided players into 5 classes:

A = star: stars of the competition, would walk into any side
B = very good: good players who can be trusted to consistently play well
C = solid: players who have established a certain level of performance
D = upside: players who have shown glimpses at senior level but not yet consistent
E = unproven: players who haven't had chances to show their game at senior level
- C: I'm prepared to be a bit generous here and have included players who probably have shown themselves to be not up to scratch. However if the club sees enough in them to keep them on the list then I'll give them the same chance. I've also included players who are coming off injury and need to prove themselves again.
- E: any unproven player goes here, doesn't matter if he went pick 1 in the national draft or is a rookie.

End 2009
A (5): Black, Power, Fevola, Brown, Clark
B (8): McGrath, Brennan, Sherman, Adcock, Merrett, Patfull, Drummond, Rich
C (10): Johnstone, Charman, Buchanan, Staker, Clarke, Maguire, Rischitelli, Selwood, Stiller, Polkinghorne
D (9): Raines, Leuenberger, Proud, Sheldon, Collier, Hawksley, Redden, Austin, Hanley
E (8): Cornelius, Rockliff, Banfield, McCulloch, Bartlet, Harwood, O'Brien, Retzlaff

There's always going to some borderline guys, eg you could argue Drummond as 'A', but you have to draw the line somewhere.

How does that compare with End 2008?
A (4): Black, Power, Bradshaw, Brown
B (4): Adcock, Merrett, Patfull, Drummond
C (14): Notting, Johnstone, Charman, McGrath, Brennan, Sherman, Macdonald, Rischitelli, Selwood, Stiller, Roe, Harding, Hooper, Dalziell
D (6): Clark, Proud, Leuenberger, Henderson, Collier, Clouston
E (12): Hawksley, Polkinghorne, Tyler, Sheldon, Austin, Rich, Redden, Banfield, Cornelius, McCulloch, King, Rockliff

So over all we've definitely improved, as seen by the increased number of A and B players. One year on, we have 5 more such guys to call on to form the nucleus of the side, and that makes a massive difference.

As for the significant changes:
- Clark from D to A
- Fevola for Bradshaw
- McGrath, Sherman and Brennan stepping up
- Rich from E to B, Polkinghorne from E to C

What about the year ahead? Well I'll need the help from Duritz's orb or Grim's crystall ball, but using my own broken model looking forward to End 2010:
- Rich and Drummond to step up to A
- Polkinghorne, Clarke and Collier to become B
- Raines, Leuenberger, Proud and Redden to become C
- Power to drop off from A to B
- Rischitelli is a tough one for me - he's always had the ingredients but hasn't been able to put it together. The trade week drama could steel his resolve and improve, or he might be so out of favour that he doesn't get many games. Thinking with my heart more than my head here, I'm tipping him to become B.

So that leaves us with 6 As, 11 Bs and 11 Cs. And if we do reach that sort of quality level, and as long the squad is balanced and has a good game plan, I think we can be contenders - maybe to the Bulldogs/Collingwood level of the last couple of years.

Feel free to disagree, starting now.

 

[BigCat2]

FWIW, my own take on our players at this point in time. Players in each Class are ordered by number of games played.

A = 5
Simon Black: most consistent player in the AFL of the past decade, still our best midfielder by some distance.

Luke Power: still a very consistent contributor, although disposal was down a little last year. Will want to return to his clever best.

Brendan Fevola: 2 time Coleman medalist, would spearhead most sides’ attack.

Jonathan Brown: Coleman medalist who captains his side with courage and leadership.

Mitch Clark: announced himself as a superstar in the making in 2009, showing tremendous athleticism, competitiveness and skill. The only question regarding him is what position he will end up in.


B = 8
Ash McGrath: over the last season has become an excellent small defender who frequently goes for gamebreaking bursts and delivers the ball 50m. Finally living up to his billing of first round pick in the 2000 draft.

Jared Brennan: while still capable of the spectacular and unpredictable, Brennan has become much more consistent of late. Can win a string of clearances or bob up for 3-4 goals. Should become more damaging in 2010 when hopefully he’s no longer needed in the ruck.

Justin Sherman: has revived his career under Michael Voss, and has become a dashing goalkicking half forward. Can provide a spark when he burns off his opponent and launches a long goal on the run.

Jed Adcock: the general of Brisbane’s defence, offering leadership, toughness and run. It is an indication of how consistently good Brisbane’s defensive unit has been by having 5 Class B players in it.

Daniel Merrett: solid as a rock in defence, fast and strong. His kicking, marking and reading of the play have all improved with experience.

Joel Patfull: goes about his work without fuss, invariably gets the job done, whether on talls or smalls. Can become even more damaging if freed up from his key defensive post.

Josh Drummond: Brisbane’s quarterback and one of the competition’s most lethal kicks. His importance is shown by the fact that Brisbane tend to struggle when he’s missing. Arguably a Class A player.

Daniel Rich: the 2009 Rising Star took the competition by storm in his first year, spearing 50m passes to forwards and launching goals from the centre square with that left boot of his. Also a ferocious tackler and very smart reader of the play. If he can build on the last season and improve his endurance and inside work, he’ll be a star midfielder.


C = 10
Travis Johnstone: has been a major disappointment so far since coming up here, but his experience and the ability to play a blinder have kept him on the list. On his day he is capable of producing Class A efforts, but I think the best realistic aim is for him to become Class B next year.

Jamie Charman: many argue that we have seen the best of Charman, while some think now he’s had a chance to rest his niggles, he’ll be back to his competitive best. In the short term, if he can get back to that level, he’ll be a useful presence at the ruck contest.

Amon Buchanan: to be honest I haven’t seen much of Buchanan in the last couple of years, but even his coach has conceded he’s performed below expectation. Apparently coming off knee issues, so hopefully he can regain his best form. He’s an interesting combination, able to win clearances and play as a goalsneak. While not overly quick, he should nevertheless produce more than Rhan Hooper did in 2009.

Brent Staker: most famous for being KO’ed by BBBB, he plays like the early Jared Brennan. Tall with athletic prowess, he has shown glimpses in most positions but made none his own. Still very inconsistent which is disappointing for a player who has had more than 100 games. Not even going to try and guess how he’ll go at his new club.

Xavier Clarke: the lightly built ex-Sainter has always had talent with his running and disposal, but injuries have never stayed away. Coming off a knee reco, apparently Voss has said he’ll be played at wing, half forward or small forward. If he can remain fit then he’s a good chance to push into Class B.

Matt Maguire: thrown a lifeline at the draft, he’s been brought in to provide some depth as key defender. It’s doubtful whether he’ll ever return to his best, and the increased pace of the modern game may catch him out. Hopefully he has a role to play for a few years.

Michael Rischitelli: has been a solid player but has stalled in his development the last few years. Can rack up clearances, make telling tackles and bomb long goals, but hasn’t been able to put it together yet. After turning down Carlton in trade week, he should be looking to step up to become a more consistent ballwinner.

Troy Selwood: having overcome his debilitating back injury and put on some muscle, Selwood looked good for a while including up forward until injury struck. It’s unclear what role he’ll play now with an influx of experienced recruits – perhaps a tagger or defensive half forward.

Cheynee Stiller: has established himself as Brisbane’s best tagger, and is capable of getting some touches himself. Lack of hurt factor in his disposal and the negating role he plays mean he often goes unnoticed. Still every team needs some dependable foot soldiers.

James Polkinghorne: bulked up over summer and looked a vastly different version to the one from 2008. He’s now stronger and quicker, has good hands and a straight kick. Has been serviceable as an alternative marking target but hasn’t yet kicked a bag. Has shown glimpses in the midfield with his inside work as well. Expect him to improve again in 2010 and push into Class B.


D = 9
Andrew Raines: showed quite a bit in 2006 before fading into nothingness. Provides plenty of run but his kicking and decision making need to improve. Perhaps Voss can revive him like he has done with Sherman. Doesn’t mind going for a trot, which will be very helpful as in recent years we’ve often looked stagnant and have no upfield movement ahead of the kicker. If he can get it all together, a senior berth beckons as he’s already had more than 50 games’ experience.

Matthew Leuenberger: our rucking great white hope has been plagued by injury in each of his 3 years so far. 2010 is still probably too early to expect him to dominate in the ruck, but he should provide good back up for Clark.

Albert Proud: has looked good at reserves level without establishing himself in the seniors, he was troubled by off-field drama and foot problems in 2009. If he can get himself right and improve his decision making and composure, he should become that quick, aggressive, goalkicking inside midfielder who will beef up our onball division. Capable of going straight to Class B if he breaks out.

Sam Sheldon: has been pretty good in doing certain things, but doesn’t yet play a role – doesn’t get enough touches, doesn’t kick goals and not doing enough defensively. In my opinion still a longer term prospect who’s likely to be pushed down the pecking order by our experienced recruits. In time should become a solid player.

Tom Collier: my personal tip for the biggest bolter in 2010 and gamebreaker. He’s got all the ingredients – tall, fast, strong, runs at the opposition, long kick. Rated highly by the club, I think he can become Goodes-like with his barnstorming runs.

James Hawksley: pushed JMac out of the side in the finals last year, he’s looked pretty good with his defensive work, disposal and doesn’t mind putting his head over the ball. Probably a depth HBF at this stage if Voss wants to give his experienced recruits a chance.

Jack Redden: the one on our list most likely to take up Simon Black’s role, Jack exceeded expectations by playing 10 games in his first season and contributing strongly in several games. Conservatively, next year I think he’ll push into Class C and become a regular starter, while there’s still plenty of upside to his game.

Matt Austin: looks like a good runner with reasonable smarts and skills. Nothing too outstanding at the moment, he’ll need to impress to get past the long queue ahead of him now.

Pearce Hanley: a little dynamo who can be one of the surprise packets of 2010. Having only played the game for 2 years, he’s actually had even less experience than that due to injuries in both of his seasons. He’s a fast, powerful runner who should excite fans if given an extended run. Despite his 3 games, I’ve put him in Class D as he played a decent game in Round 22 2008.


E = 8
Aaron Cornelius: projects as a clever 3rd tall at senior level, he’s probably still a couple of years away from it. Strong marking is the best feature of his game.

Tom Rockliff: footballer over athlete personified. Has kicked plenty of goals and got plenty of touches at TAC Cup level despite poor pace and endurance. Has played up forward and midfield for the Lions Reserves. He’ll be a very interesting one to follow, as if he can overcome his physical limitations (which may take time), he can become a fantastic footballer.

Todd Banfield: a quick linebreaking midfielder who can win his own ball, he can add pace to the Lions midfield. Has progressed pretty well.

Bart McCulloch: project ruckman/tall who is a good runner, his first year was ruined by injury. Still plenty of work ahead in terms of his strength and rucking.

Callum Bartlett: another highly rated junior footballer who has fallen to the Lions, he’s excited everyone with that video clip where he played TAC Cup as an underage player. He is quick, elusive and skilled, and should become a gun player if he can get over his knee injury.

Ryan Harwood: an inside midfielder to help with clearances, he will need a few years to develop. Maybe he can develop into a Daniel Harris type.

Jesse O’Brien: running wingman who’s a late pick in the draft.

Bryce Retzlaff: skinny KPP who is courageous, will be developed through the Reserves.

 

[chopperduck]

Some important things that helped us this year was having those few players step up who should have, or have but haven't done it on a consistant basis.

Brennan we didn't get as much out of him as we coudl due to him having to ruck. Hoping he will be able to run free next year and i think we could very well see him take another step up. Is still very capable to be thrown down back or up forward as well. I still think playing as a 3rd tall rotating through the forward line he can create massive problems for teams. Also handy as a 3rd man up at the ruck as well if needed.

Sherman got back to his good self and was a very valuable player to us playing off HF. He ran the ball through the middle as well as created goals. Got so damaging for a bit there that he was tagged.

Rich is an auto inclusion. He is simply an extra solid player we picked up. Never known for such a player to be rated so highly in a draft, slip down out of the top 5 and then exceed the draft hype. Dont know if he is a future captain, but he is already a leader by example.

Polka stepped up from the year before and added a bit to our forward line. Reminds me a little bit of Patfull when he started up forward. Look forward to see what he can do this year.

Clark...enough said really. finally stayed injury free and on the park and showed us what most of us knew he could do...he just did it in another position. Drummond was another who finally spent more time on the field and we are better off for it.

Ash had a career best season and is a lock as our small defender and rebounder. At times, Ash and Sherman were the 2 players responsible for moving the ball quick, having one at either end really helped.

On top of these guys we got a good look at a few other young cubs, some are too young to improve too much in one year, and will probably lose spots to the new players coming in. However they will continue to develope over the next 24 months and gives us decent depth.

We are still waiting for Trapper and Riska to really step up to where they should be. Trapper should be in the top tier, i at least hope he can cement himself in the second tier next year with a solid consistant season. Riska has been played out of position, but shoudl still be able to insert himself into the game more, didn't have a bad year, but would expect more from him

Adding to the guys who have stepped up should hopefully be our injury squad from this year, mainly our ruck division. So we are pretty much added in Bergs and Charmo to our team from this year which is heck exciting, especially with the other new players such as Fev as well.

 

[lionshine]

Gee im stoked that I don't have to choose the team. Probally 34 players who could be in our best 22!

 

[Axel.]

Nice thread.

 

[Lace Out]

Gee im stoked that I don't have to choose the team. Probally 34 players who could be in our best 22!

Until the tuesday before round 1 and you see 14 players unavailable on our injury list.

 

[Lace Out]

I think McGrath is a big key next season but am preparing for him to not go as well-just got a bad feeling that he might still suffer a bit of inconsistancy after what was his best year but if he can maintain this will be of the ingredients for what could be a top four berth.

 

[Gibbo_88]

What about the year ahead? Well I'll need the help from Duritz's orb or Grim's crystall ball, but using my own broken model looking forward to End 2010:
- Rich and Drummond to step up to A
- Polkinghorne, Clarke and Collier to become B
- Raines, Leuenberger, Proud and Redden to become C
- Power to drop off from A to B
- Rischitelli is a tough one for me - he's always had the ingredients but hasn't been able to put it together. The trade week drama could steel his resolve and improve, or he might be so out of favour that he doesn't get many games. Thinking with my heart more than my head here, I'm tipping him to become B.

So that leaves us with 6 As, 11 Bs and 11 Cs. And if we do reach that sort of quality level, and as long the squad is balanced and has a good game plan, I think we can be contenders - maybe to the Bulldogs/Collingwood level of the last couple of years.

Feel free to disagree, starting now.

Nice read, I have to disagree with you on Raines though. I doubt he will make the team for more than 1-2 games.

Based on last years list in the final against Bulldogs which was arguably our strongest team of the year:
B: Ashley McGrath , Daniel Merrett , James Hawksley
HB: Joel Patfull , Josh Drummond , Jed Adcock
C: Jared Brennan , Simon Black , Daniel Rich
HF: Michael Rischitelli , Jonathan Brown , James Polkinghorne
F: Sam Sheldon , Daniel Bradshaw , Tim Notting
Foll: Mitch Clark , Luke Power , Justin Sherman
Int: Rhan Hooper , Matt Austin , Travis Johnstone , Jack Redden

Back 6 should be settled and the only possible change is when Maguire is ready for him to come in and play as a CHB and take the second forward. Staker has been told he will be used in the midfield apparently and I don't think this will happen. Clark is a ruckman with a midfielders tank and Staker will most likely be used only as bck up if Maguire, Patfull or Merrett are injured.

The ruck and centre can't really be improved these are 6 of our best players. Clark can't go it alone in the ruck again, Leuey or Charman will come in to the team, whoever has the bigger fitness.

The half forward, forward and interchange is the only area I think there can be improvement in 2010. Notting and Hooper gone, no real significant loss. Sheldon and Austins place will not be safe and I can see Buchanon coming in for Sheldon or Austin and one of these players will lose their spot when Leuey or Charman comes into the team.

 

[POBT]

I hope I don't make any embarrassing mistakes but here's my attempt at the same analysis for Geelong's list. I'll do it for the 2010 list (because I can't be arsed finding the 2009 playing list) but I think it will demonstrate the whole of club improvement required to go to the next level:

A: Ablett, Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Johnson, Ling, Mackie, Scarlett, Selwood (10)

B: Hunt, Kelly, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens, Rooke, Taylor, Wojinksi (8)

C: Blake, Byrnes, Hawkins, Stokes, Varcoe, (5)

D: Djerrkura, Drum, Gamble, Hogan, Laidler, Lonergan (6)

E: Brown, Christensen, Cowan, Duncan, Gillies, Menzel, Motlop, Simpson, Vardy, West (10)

That's 18 players in the top two tiers (and there would be reasonable argument to suggest the likes of Stokes, Byrnes are B's and Ottens, Milburn, Kelly are A's), with the equal largest group being the elite "A" class. We've got 13 players in the top tiers with our "A graders" forming the smallest group.

To get to premiership challenger status, I reckon we'd want at least 8 "A graders" and a total of about 18 as either As or Bs. If I were Voss, here's the improvement I'd be demanding:

McGrath to an A - probably showed All Australian standard footy over the 2nd half of the year. Time to put together 22 games of his best footy.

Brennan to an A - A further incremental improvement, coupled with less time rucking.

Sherman to an A - played some great footy but could go a step or two further.

Adcock to an A - is able to play elite footy from a back pocket.

Drummond to an A - full season required.

Johnstone to a B - at least.

Clarke to a B - from what I saw, when able to get on the park in recent years, he's showed this type of form.

Selwood to a B - as a tagger, he has this capability.

Stiller to a B - see Selwood.

Rischitelli to a B - needs to start to influence matches regardless of the role he is set.

Charman to a B - injuries are the only excuse for him.


Obviously, you'd love every one of these players to take a step forward. Not going to happen though. But I've purposely left out a bunch of young players - for every TJ that fails to step up, hopefully a Redden or Polkinghorne can take their place. But you simply can't expect youngsters to take those big steps forward. Until you've played a couple of years of senior footy, the chances are your performances will fluctuate. I genuinely don't expect Rich to become an A grader by year's end. I hope to be pleasantly surprised but your team's fortunes should not be reliant on a bunch of 2nd year players stepping up - just sets it up for disappointment.

 

[_Gin]

Just thought I would take on some players approaching milestones. That could possibly hit milestones.

Adcock - 91 games

Brown - 184 games

Charman - 129 games

Clark - 46 games

Johnstone - 194 games

Mcgrath - 137 games

Power - 241 games

Sherman - 97 games


And our young talent that if played could double their AFL experience (only looking at those that have shown something already).

Austin - 8 games
Hawksley - 11 games
Leuenberger - 22 games
Polks - 24 games
Rich - 24 games
Proud - 24 games
Sheldon - 19 games
Rockcliff - 1 game (wasn't a terrible first game)

 

[Scubaveg]

I think somebody may have forgot Redden, only the most promising youngster outside Rich.

 

[BigCat2]

A: Ablett, Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Johnson, Ling, Mackie, Scarlett, Selwood (10)

B: Hunt, Kelly, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens, Rooke, Taylor, Wojinksi (8)

C: Blake, Byrnes, Hawkins, Stokes, Varcoe, (5)

D: Djerrkura, Drum, Gamble, Hogan, Laidler, Lonergan (6)

E: Brown, Christensen, Cowan, Duncan, Gillies, Menzel, Motlop, Simpson, Vardy, West (10)

That's 18 players in the top two tiers (and there would be reasonable argument to suggest the likes of Stokes, Byrnes are B's and Ottens, Milburn, Kelly are A's), with the equal largest group being the elite "A" class. We've got 13 players in the top tiers with our "A graders" forming the smallest group.

To get to premiership challenger status, I reckon we'd want at least 8 "A graders" and a total of about 18 as either As or Bs. If I were Voss, here's the improvement I'd be demanding:

POBT, I'd say that Geelong's number of A's and B's is above par for what's needed to win a premiership usually. They've got such quality that they were only 1 bad game from doing the three-peat. If you look at other recent flag winners in Hawthorn, West Coast, Sydney and even Port, they didn't have that many A and B graders.

Look back to our premiership years:

A (7): Johnson, Leppitsch, Lappin, Voss, Akermanis, Lynch, Black
B (15): Michael, Ashcroft, C Scott, White, B Scott, Brown, Power, Bradshaw, McRae, Keating, Hart, Charman, Notting, Pike, Headland

So there's 22 walk up starts already when fit, and I've only listed 7 A's there by being very conservative. Also haven't even listed likes of McDonald, Copeland, McGrath and Caracella. Again this was a once in a generation squad, and it's unfair to expect any side to come close to that.

I do like your combined 18 of A's and B's though, it gives a strong core and you know your side will perform consistently well most of the time. That leaves a few spots for solid players and promising youngsters, and also reduces the impact of losing an A or B player through injury because there's a larger core.

By end 2010, I personally can't see how we'll come up with 9-10 A's and a similar number of B's. I think next year while making the top 4 / prelim will be the internal expectation, it's going to take a bloody lot of work just to reach that. I remind myself that each of the top 6 clubs last year have probably improved its list over the off-season, and with Hawthorn likely to climb up, even a top 6 finish is no gimme.

 

[chopperduck]

I dont think there is any right combination of A or B players to = a flag, i think the most important thing is just having your 18 players on the field being either or A or B rated players. You only need a few A players, who are the best of the best that will win the game for you, as long as the other 16 or so players are B standard, they will at least draw even with their opponent. Our premiership years was built on a team with no weak links, not all of them were stars, but they were solid B's who could draw even, give a good contest and let the A players dominate.

Thing is, we have shown some solid improvement over last year, some of the young guys have gone up, and there are still a group of players who are due to step up due to either injury or having a bad year, played out of position in Brennan's case. From that list POBT, i can't see anyone there who isn't able to go up a step, and thats pleasing.

 

[POBT]

POBT, I'd say that Geelong's number of A's and B's is above par for what's needed to win a premiership usually. They've got such quality that they were only 1 bad game from doing the three-peat. If you look at other recent flag winners in Hawthorn, West Coast, Sydney and even Port, they didn't have that many A and B graders.

But we have to beat Geelong. History is a useful guide but the reality is that to win a flag, you have to beat the best side. Geelong is the benchmark in this current competition and there's no point having a benchmark if you aren't going to measure yourself against it.

There are other ways to skin the cat though. Like you say, a lack of A graders can always be overcome (to an extent) by more B graders. But with our current squad make-up, I think there's a high probability that we'll have a number of regular first team players who are in the "C" grade. On that basis, you will need more "A" players. Fortunately, I reckon we've got 3 or 4 who have shown consistent "A" form, if not over the complete last season.

 

[BigCat2]

Yep, that's why I don't think we can genuinely square off against Geelong and beat them at the height of their powers, at least in 2010. We're simply not capable of making that quantum leap in one year.

However, football (or any game for that matter) isn't played out on paper or on past records. Anyone on their day can have a chance - see Hawthorn 2008. They won through having blokes playing career best football, having a right gameplan, catching Geelong off guard and the Cats' woeful kicking for goal. Man on man, they weren't good enough to win, but they did.

So can we be that dark horse in 2010 and come out of nowhere to win? It's not impossible, but not probable. A lot of things will have to go right for us and a lot will have to go wrong with the opposition for us to bridge and overcome that current gap in quality.

 

[GabbaMan]

. . . Like you say, a lack of A graders can always be overcome (to an extent) by more B graders. But with our current squad make-up, I think there's a high probability that we'll have a number of regular first team players who are in the "C" grade. On that basis, you will need more "A" players. Fortunately, I reckon we've got 3 or 4 who have shown consistent "A" form, if not over the complete last season.

Zee gray cells are in overdrive, is the above just plain fence sitting or this dumb newbie apprentice unable to grasp simple "A" grade rhetorical puzzles?

 

[POBT]

Zee gray cells are in overdrive, is the above just plain fence sitting or this dumb newbie apprentice unable to grasp simple "A" grade rhetorical puzzles?

If you are going to have more "average" players in your side, then you need more "elite" players to make up for it. If you have no C-graders (or below), then you can get away with a smaller number of A-graders.

In other words (whilst wholly simplistic), these might be two equally viable list structures:

(1) 6 A's, 14 B's, 2 C's

(2) 4 A's, 18 B's, 0 C's.

I think, with our list make up, we are more likely to go with option (1) than option (2).

Clear as mud?

 

[_Gin]

I think somebody may have forgot Redden, only the most promising youngster outside Rich.

Redden was the entire reason I made that section.

 

[BigCat2]

Zee gray cells are in overdrive, is the above just plain fence sitting or this dumb newbie apprentice unable to grasp simple "A" grade rhetorical puzzles?

No splinters up POBT's backside there - what he said makes sense. It's the total quality of the team out there that matters, and that's what coaches have to work with. If you have some extra superstars, you can theoretically afford to carry a few more players of lesser quality.

 

[Grimreepah]

Yep, that's why I don't think we can genuinely square off against Geelong and beat them at the height of their powers, at least in 2010. We're simply not capable of making that quantum leap in one year.

Why not? Geelong did. In 2007 just about every player in their starting 22 took their game to another level. We are a better team now than Geelong were in 2006. Our team undergoing a similar transformation may be unlikely, but it is not impossible.

 

[BigCat2]

Why not? Geelong did. In 2007 just about every player in their starting 22 took their game to another level. We are a better team now than Geelong were in 2006. Our team undergoing a similar transformation may be unlikely, but it is not impossible.

True that most Geelong players played their best football in 2007, however I attribute Geelong's rapid rise in 2007 more to the fact that almost their entire team way underperformed in 2006.

This was the team that had a good/decent campaign in 2005, and narrowly lost the prelim in 2004 to the greatest team of recent times. Their personnel going into 2006 was essentially the same, but for whatever reason they all decided to play rubbish that year, thus missing the finals. It was a blip on their steady upward trend since the drafting of the majority of their key players in 1999 and 2001. Of course picking up Joel Selwood also meant they went into 2007 with that extra boost, similar to the impact made by Daniel Rich.

For us, I think we played our potential or even slightly overachieved in 2009. Our weaknesses were being killed in clearances and poor skills/decision making, balanced by a couple of quality power forwards, a dependable defence and that never-say-die attitude which allowed us to win several games in which we managed to win despite playing the poorer football for the majority of the match, most memorably in the Elimination Final.

 

[Grimreepah]

True that most Geelong players played their best football in 2007, however I attribute Geelong's rapid rise in 2007 more to the fact that almost their entire team way underperformed in 2006.

That is a conclusion that people make in retrospect, but at the time there certainly wasn't anybody predicting them to achieve great things.

Looking at people's ladder predictions there is generally one constant - people almost always underestimate how much things change from one year to the next. The grading system may be a good reflection of where teams were at in 2009, but it is limited in predicting what will happen in the future.

In 2006 West Coast were premiers and Hawthorn finished 11th. In 2008 Hawthorn were premiers and West Coast finished 15th. What happened was almost every Hawthorn player went up a ranking or two and almost every player from West Coast went down a ranking or two. Why didn't anyone predict this? Because there are just too many variables to create a formula for predicting success.

I agree that if Brisbane want to be premiers they will need improvement from a number (or even the majority) of players. I don't agree that this is an unrealistic goal to aim for.

 

[BigCat2]

Why do I get a sense of deja vu Grim?

I like the idea of us challenging for the flag next year, but IMO that's fantasy with supporters' tinted glasses. 2008 would perhaps be less fanciful.

So we just give up

I know the odds are drastically against us, but it is that very reason that if we were able to pull something out of the hat it would be all the more special. Sooner or later someone is going to do the unthinkable (ie. come from nowhere to win) - now is our chance to be that team.

No, not giving up, just being a little bit more practical.

See thread:
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=272868

 

[BigCat2]

That is a conclusion that people make in retrospect, but at the time there certainly wasn't anybody predicting them to achieve great things.

Perhaps a bit of it is hindsight, but what cannot be denied is that the young Geelong side in 2004 made the prelim and almost beat us to make the GF. They then backed it up with a solid season in 2005.

We haven't done anything of the like for the last 5 years.

 

[Grimreepah]

Perhaps a bit of it is hindsight, but what cannot be denied is that the young Geelong side in 2004 made the prelim and almost beat us to make the GF. They then backed it up with a solid season in 2005..

I believe every team has made a prelim in the last 15 years.

We haven't done anything of the like for the last 5 years.

Neither had Hawthorn.

And since Voss is moving away from the typical 'build from the ground up' list management strategy, you could also argue that typical predictors of success are not so relevant to us.

PS. good find BigCat. I stand by everything I said in that earlier thread. The first battle is with ourselves. If we don't think we can go all the way we won't.