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Polls Thread Mk III

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The people have clearly lost faith in the government, election now!;)


Last three Neswpolls; 56-44, 52-48, 48-52.
Abbott's disapproval has eclipsed his approval (40-45)
Worrying numbers, how much longer before we hear whispers of Turnbull?
 
Hank Scorpion said:
The people have clearly lost faith in the government, election now!;)


Last three Neswpolls; 56-44, 52-48, 48-52.
Abbott's disapproval has eclipsed his approval (40-45)
Worrying numbers, how much longer before we hear whispers of Turnbull?
Click to expand...

*whisper*Turnbull*whisper*
 
Abbott is perfectly secure until after the next election. The Libs aren't dumb enough to switch leaders during their first term after seeing what happened to Labor.

Current numbers should be making the Coalition look hard at how they communicate. They literally haven't done anything yet, but their numbers have taken a massive dive. The specific issues (asylum seeker secrecy, Indonesia spying, Gonski debacle) will blow over quickly enough, but if they don't fix the communication problems that caused them then they will continue to have similar issues crop up in the future.

Regardless, the money polls will start in June after the budget. That's when policy will start to become a factor - either for better or for worse.
 
Inferno said:
The Victorian Liberal Party says hi!
Click to expand...
As does the NT Party.
But surely the poll situation in Victoria, and with Federal Labor, would convince the Federal Coalition to do as Caesar says and stick it through? Unless it got incredibly dire, with less than a year to go. Which is almost statistically impossible, given the swing required just to lose the election, let alone to lose convincingly.
 
samFFC said:
As does the NT Party.
But surely the poll situation in Victoria, and with Federal Labor, would convince the Federal Coalition to do as Caesar says and stick it through? Unless it got incredibly dire, with less than a year to go. Which is almost statistically impossible, given the swing required just to lose the election, let alone to lose convincingly.
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Yeah I did forget that the Territorians pulled it off at a Usain Bolt like pace.

I'd be highly surprised if he was replaced. But then again if you asked me at the end of 2010 whether Baillieu would be gone before the next election I would have told you that you're insane. To say Abbott is perfectly secure is ridiculous.

Just to keep up the similarities the Feds are also seemingly copying Ted's minimalist media cycle which didn't work at all and that's with the added bonus of most people not giving a flying **** about state politics. They're trying it in the spotlight of federal politics where there's daily issues that need to be handled and it's arguably an even less viable option than at state level.

Abbott also has a clear, identifiable and more publicly popular challenger in the Honourable Member for Wentworth. The closest thing to an identifiable challenger to Baillieu prior to the leadership spill was in the Upper House o_O
 
Inferno said:
Yeah I did forget that the Territorians pulled it off at a Usain Bolt like pace.

I'd be highly surprised if he was replaced. But then again if you asked me at the end of 2010 whether Baillieu would be gone before the next election I would have told you that you're insane. To say Abbott is perfectly secure is ridiculous.

Just to keep up the similarities the Feds are also seemingly copying Ted's minimalist media cycle which didn't work at all and that's with the added bonus of most people not giving a flying **** about state politics. They're trying it in the spotlight of federal politics where there's daily issues that need to be handled and it's arguably an even less viable option than at state level.

Abbott also has a clear, identifiable and more publicly popular challenger in the Honourable Member for Wentworth. The closest thing to an identifiable challenger to Baillieu prior to the leadership spill was in the Upper House o_O
Click to expand...


Don't know much about Vic politics, so cheers for your perspectives. Certainly Turnbull is thereabouts, but his age and proven unpopularity when leader (though times have changed) might make things difficult to install him in the future. Especially if we are talking past 2016. He is already 60 next year. Not a lot of other leadership potential on the front bench, though. And we wouldn't see a backbencher rise to leader within 4-5 years of govt surely.
 
samFFC said:
Don't know much about Vic politics, so cheers for your perspectives. Certainly Turnbull is thereabouts, but his age and proven unpopularity when leader (though times have changed) might make things difficult to install him in the future. Especially if we are talking past 2016. He is already 60 next year. Not a lot of other leadership potential on the front bench, though. And we wouldn't see a backbencher rise to leader within 4-5 years of govt surely.
Click to expand...

Back to Vic as a comparison case - Napthine became leader on his 61st birthday. IIRC Napthine also holds the Vic polling record for most unpopular leader and lowest vote for party from his stint as Opposition leader from 1999-02.

Only a 3 year age gap between Turnbull and Abbott so I don't think it would be that much of a factor if it happened relatively soon.
 
Inferno said:
Back to Vic as a comparison case - Napthine became leader on his 61st birthday. IIRC Napthine also holds the Vic polling record for most unpopular leader and lowest vote for party from his stint as Opposition leader from 1999-02.

Only a 3 year age gap between Turnbull and Abbott so I don't think it would be that much of a factor if it happened relatively soon.
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Fair enough!
Though I don't think it'll happen this term. Combination of what you/Caesar said earlier, plus only three-year term (versus 4 in Vic and many other states). So at best in 2 years, probably more likely 4-5 years from now. Turnbull certainly has the statesman persona.
 

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samFFC said:
Fair enough!
Though I don't think it'll happen this term. Combination of what you/Caesar said earlier, plus only three-year term (versus 4 in Vic and many other states). So at best in 2 years, probably more likely 4-5 years from now. Turnbull certainly has the statesman persona.
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Doesn't help that he's made to look like a bit of a dill every time he opens his mouth to defend the government's broadband policy. Tone's played that one quite nicely.
 
The events that would have to occur for enough of the coalition to consider ousting Abbott are just incredibly unlikely. It's still interesting that what looked such a united team with every opportunity in front after the election has become so disorganised so quickly. Hockey also seems to have got his mojo back and I'd say he'd be the obvious replacement in the unlikely event that they switch leaders.

I think Abbott needs to take a stand on something. He needs to find some issue where he's willing to stand by his views in the face of some minor public discontent. Perhaps removing subsidies to the car industry could have been that but he seems to be doing everything he can to avoid being linked to the decision. If he owned that decision and explained why he was making that decision, it might not be popular but it would earn him some grudging respect. Trying to be everything to everyone doesn't work. Somehow he needs to win some respect and that isn't going to happen by pretending he can deliver what everyone wants.
 
Footy Smarts said:
The events that would have to occur for enough of the coalition to consider ousting Abbott are just incredibly unlikely. It's still interesting that what looked such a united team with every opportunity in front after the election has become so disorganised so quickly. Hockey also seems to have got his mojo back and I'd say he'd be the obvious replacement in the unlikely event that they switch leaders.

I think Abbott needs to take a stand on something. He needs to find some issue where he's willing to stand by his views in the face of some minor public discontent. Perhaps removing subsidies to the car industry could have been that but he seems to be doing everything he can to avoid being linked to the decision. If he owned that decision and explained why he was making that decision, it might not be popular but it would earn him some grudging respect. Trying to be everything to everyone doesn't work. Somehow he needs to win some respect and that isn't going to happen by pretending he can deliver what everyone wants.
Click to expand...

PPL? Or will that slink away into the darkness?
 
samFFC said:
PPL? Or will that slink away into the darkness?
Click to expand...

Can't see the PPL doing it. It's seen as just a cash splash to help him politically with women. That type of policy is part of his problem.

It doesn't even have to be a change in policy but a change in the way he's selling the policy. Take CSG for instance. At some point it's likely to rear it's head in a pretty big way and the coalition will likely come to some arrangement which still gives the companies access but maybe gives a slightly better return for farmers. Overall it'll probably be some compromise position that falls more in favour of the gas company.

But whatever the exact policy is, Abbott's instincts would be to try and sell this as him getting results for everyone and then avoid the media scrutiny until it all blows over. Instead I think he should be upfront with the public, own it as his own decision, and argue why it's in the best interests of the nation. Of course, no matter what the policy is he'll be hated for it by one side or the other (or both). But if it's done well, standing up for what he thinks is in the best interests of the nation in the face of scrutiny will earn him respect and when it comes to the ballot box respect is a valuable commodity.
 
Footy Smarts said:
The events that would have to occur for enough of the coalition to consider ousting Abbott are just incredibly unlikely. It's still interesting that what looked such a united team with every opportunity in front after the election has become so disorganised so quickly. Hockey also seems to have got his mojo back and I'd say he'd be the obvious replacement in the unlikely event that they switch leaders.

I think Abbott needs to take a stand on something. He needs to find some issue where he's willing to stand by his views in the face of some minor public discontent. Perhaps removing subsidies to the car industry could have been that but he seems to be doing everything he can to avoid being linked to the decision. If he owned that decision and explained why he was making that decision, it might not be popular but it would earn him some grudging respect. Trying to be everything to everyone doesn't work. Somehow he needs to win some respect and that isn't going to happen by pretending he can deliver what everyone wants.
Click to expand...

I want Abbott,Pyne,Hockey,Bishop,Andrews,Morrison,Truss and all the other leftover duds from the Howard era as they are the ALPs best chance Really all Shorten has to do with these fools in control is keep quiet and let them do the damage to themselves.
 
Inferno said:
I'd be highly surprised if he was replaced. But then again if you asked me at the end of 2010 whether Baillieu would be gone before the next election I would have told you that you're insane. To say Abbott is perfectly secure is ridiculous.
Click to expand...

It's not really comparable though. Baillieu wasn't ousted willingly by his own party; he was forced out by a rogue MP who threatened to bring down the government if he didn't resign.

A Baillieu situation could never happen to Abbott because his government doesn't depend on a razor-thin majority.

finders said:
Really all Shorten has to do with these fools in control is keep quiet and let them do the damage to themselves.
Click to expand...
That would be the worst possible strategy.
 

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samFFC said:
Fair enough!
Though I don't think it'll happen this term. Combination of what you/Caesar said earlier, plus only three-year term (versus 4 in Vic and many other states). So at best in 2 years, probably more likely 4-5 years from now. Turnbull certainly has the statesman persona.
Click to expand...

Oh yeah I totally agree. It's just to say with certainty that it won't happen in a first term isn't right.

Caesar said:
It's not really comparable though. Baillieu wasn't ousted willingly by his own party; he was forced out by a rogue MP who threatened to bring down the government if he didn't resign.

A Baillieu situation could never happen to Abbott because his government doesn't depend on a razor-thin majority.
Click to expand...

Couldn't disagree more.

There was plenty of talk about a challenge before Shaw's actions and the Government was well and truly floundering by that point. Even Jeff Kennett who was not just a close political ally but a mentor as well was publicly calling for Baillieu to resign the day before it happened.

All Shaw did was bring it to a head earlier than it otherwise would have.
 
Caesar said:
A Baillieu situation could never happen to Abbott because his government doesn't depend on a razor-thin majority.
Click to expand...


For a majority in federal government 76 seats , Abbott has a majority of 14 not big enough margin for a 2 term government

labor gets 50.8% in 2pp or greater they win government , it shows the abbott coalition is not that safe
 

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