Polls Thread Mk III

[Slax]

The people are clearly losing faith in the Government. Election now! They are a rabble! Off with their heads!

Can't the miltary take over and we can have a public execution of various politicians? Put it on as a road show around the country, this week in Melbourne:
warm-up act - Ken Smith
lead-in act - Jenny Macklin
Main Act - Kevin Andrews

Saw some internal ALP polling for Victoria, whilst it continues to look like an absolute landslide in November, more interesting was the polls for Frankston, Shaw would likely retain the seat as an independent, provided the ALP & Libs don't preference each other.

 

[noddy]

Not looking all that good for Labor in the seat of Griffith.

Labor polling shows Libs favourite in Griffith

http://www.afr.com/p/national/labor_polling_shows_libs_favourite_m1rg0kgKS1sLpCutioSH2L

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Not looking all that good for Labor in the seat of Griffith.

Labor polling shows Libs favourite in Griffith

http://www.afr.com/p/national/labor_polling_shows_libs_favourite_m1rg0kgKS1sLpCutioSH2L

That title seems a bit misleading, the article refers to information about the CANDIDATES, not necessarily the primary party vote.

I found this source here:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/

Which suggests there is a 7.7% swing TO the Labor Party in Queensland. Candidate popularity alone will not be enough to overcome this.

 

[Footy Smarts]

You've been spending too much time on Twitter.

Don't worry I try not to enter that echo chamber. In all reality it's probably just a coincidence. The year after elections are always later starting than the other years just normally not this late. It's a bit of a welcome change in my opinion. I'd be very happy if no polls were published apart from within a few months of an election since they're meaningless and just distract from decent policy discussion.

 

[Andre]

Not looking all that good for Labor in the seat of Griffith.

Labor polling shows Libs favourite in Griffith

http://www.afr.com/p/national/labor_polling_shows_libs_favourite_m1rg0kgKS1sLpCutioSH2L

Ah, the old 'we're ahead in virtually every poll, so lets cook up a poll showing otherwise' trick. So they can simultaneously try to swing undecided voters and point to it as what a wonderful campaign they ran in the last few days. Both main parties are want to use this trick and it's about as believable from either of them. (Ie. not at all).

 

[poller]

Not looking all that good for Labor in the seat of Griffith.

Labor polling shows Libs favourite in Griffith

http://www.afr.com/p/national/labor_polling_shows_libs_favourite_m1rg0kgKS1sLpCutioSH2L

Reminds me about the so called internal polling for the melbourne state by election

where the media claimed labor was going to lose

the result labor won easily

 

[noddy]

Apparently the LNP candidate in Bill Glasson did not leave a good impression at last nights forum when he left early as the questions were not of his liking.

 

[Gough]

Apparently the LNP candidate in Bill Glasson did not leave a good impression at last nights forum when he left early as the questions were not of his liking.

This seems to be becoming a bit of a habit in the Liberal Party at the moment. A shoot the messenger policy. I guess it's difficult for a party almost bereft of any policy to debate it, so much easier to ignore the questions.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Two polls so far this week. Newspoll returns, and a galaxy poll in Queensland state:

Queensland State Polling (swings from Nov 2013):
Primary vote
LNP: 41 (-4)
Labor: 36 (+3)
Green: 8 (-)
KAP: 6 (+1)
Other (inc. Palmer): 9 (-)

TPP
LNP: 53 (-4)
Labor: 47 (+4)

Popularity (satisfied)-(dissatisfied)
Newman: 40-53 (-3)-(+4)
Palaszczuk: 35-35 (-2)-(+5)

~10% swing against the March 2012 result. Newman would lose his seat on a uniform swing

http://resources.news.com.au/files/2014/02/11/1226823/080138-cm-file-galaxy-poll-2014-02-11.pdf


Federal Polling (Newspoll):
Primary Vote
Coalition: 41 (+1)
Labor: 35 (-3)
Green: 12 (+3)

TPP
Labor: 51 (-1)
Coalition: 49 (+1)

Approval (satisfied)-(dissatisfied)
Shorten: 35-35 (-9)-(+8)
Abbott: 40-45 (unchanged)

PPM
Abbott: 41 (-)
Shorten: 33 (-1)

 

[samFFC]

Two polls so far this week. Newspoll returns, and a galaxy poll in Queensland state:

Queensland State Polling (swings from Nov 2013):
Primary vote
LNP: 41 (-4)
Labor: 36 (+3)
Green: 8 (-)
KAP: 6 (+1)
Other (inc. Palmer): 9 (-)

TPP
LNP: 53 (-4)
Labor: 47 (+4)

Popularity (satisfied)-(dissatisfied)
Newman: 40-53 (-3)-(+4)
Palaszczuk: 35-35 (-2)-(+5)

~10% swing against the March 2012 result. Newman would lose his seat on a uniform swing

http://resources.news.com.au/files/2014/02/11/1226823/080138-cm-file-galaxy-poll-2014-02-11.pdf


Federal Polling (Newspoll):
Primary Vote
Coalition: 41 (+1)
Labor: 35 (-3)
Green: 12 (+3)

TPP
Labor: 51 (-1)
Coalition: 49 (+1)

Approval (satisfied)-(dissatisfied)
Shorten: 35-35 (-9)-(+8)
Abbott: 40-45 (unchanged)

PPM
Abbott: 41 (-)
Shorten: 33 (-1)

Shorten honeymoon over.

Also, interesting to see first newspoll in a while sees Labor sliding. First poll of any company showing that in some time I would have thought.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Shorten honeymoon over.

Also, interesting to see first newspoll in a while sees Labor sliding. First poll of any company showing that in some time I would have thought.

Was very surprised to such a drop when Shorten has been quiet over the time since the last Newspoll.

As for the timing, it's all a conspiracy . I thought the late timing would be done in order to get a SA State Newspoll in conjunction.

 

[Visions]

Shorten honeymoon over.

Also, interesting to see first newspoll in a while sees Labor sliding. First poll of any company showing that in some time I would have thought.

Wow, those Shorten approval numbers are a huge swing. Wonder if him not distancing himself from the unions has had any effect on it?

 

[samFFC]

Was very surprised to such a drop when Shorten has been quiet over the time since the last Newspoll.

As for the timing, it's all a conspiracy . I thought the late timing would be done in order to get a SA State Newspoll in conjunction.

Agree. Just teasing. Kinda...

 

[poller]

News ltd is hiding a 5% swing against Abbott in qld , from a galaxy poll finding and still trying to talk abbott up

52 per cent for the LNP, based on previous preference flows, down from 57 per cent at the last election.

This represents a swing of five points to Labor in just 5 months, suggesting Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s honeymoon with voters is over in Queensland.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...ker-boats-at-sea/story-fnihsrf2-1226824502934

Shorten and labor are looking good at this stage , at this point it is shaping that qld will lose it for abbott

 

[Inferno]

Two polls so far this week. Newspoll returns, and a galaxy poll in Queensland state:

Queensland State Polling (swings from Nov 2013):
Primary vote
LNP: 41 (-4)
Labor: 36 (+3)
Green: 8 (-)
KAP: 6 (+1)
Other (inc. Palmer): 9 (-)

TPP
LNP: 53 (-4)
Labor: 47 (+4)

Popularity (satisfied)-(dissatisfied)
Newman: 40-53 (-3)-(+4)
Palaszczuk: 35-35 (-2)-(+5)

~10% swing against the March 2012 result. Newman would lose his seat on a uniform swing

http://resources.news.com.au/files/2014/02/11/1226823/080138-cm-file-galaxy-poll-2014-02-11.pdf

With how divisive he is and the fact he's in a seat that's inner city, relatively socially left and would have a disproportionate amount of public servants living there it would not surprise me in the slightest if Newman loses his seat even if the LNP won the election fairly comfortably.

 

[samFFC]

Good poll for LNP/Abbott:

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/fed...t-bill-shorten-hurt-labor-20140216-32tzn.html

LNP 44 (up 3)
Lab 33 (down 4)
Green 12 (up 1)

2PP
LNP 52-48
but 51-49 when specifically asked

Would think this might be just an anomaly however - very out of keeping with recent polls. Nevertheless, this would be welcome a month out from the SA election.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Good poll for LNP/Abbott:

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/fed...t-bill-shorten-hurt-labor-20140216-32tzn.html

Would think this might be just an anomaly however - very out of keeping with recent polls. Nevertheless, this would be welcome a month out from the SA election.

Shorten's disapproval is inline with the recent Newspoll which is surprising, I guess that the union issue is biting more than expected.

Will wait for other polls to judge the legitimacy of the TPP figure. I think the boat issue seems to be playing on voters' minds, given the swing to the Greens & LNP simultaneously (also shown in Newspoll). Labor would do well to shift focus to other policies.

 

[pjcrows]

For the first few months after the election, Abbott was having a stinker (Gonski dumping, spy scandal etc) so Opposition kept quiet and received a poll bounce. Since then, Shorten has had his mug all over the TV and his personal ratings have slumped, purely because people have now clicked that he is the leader and remember he's that union bloke who had the deciding roll in the necking of two PM's.

The decision to reinstate Rudd will be heavy baggage and is the reason why, as I've stated before, he won't ever become PM.

(I actually personally like Shorten and admire his work on the NDIS).

 

[GuruJane]

because people have now clicked that he is the leader and remember he's that union bloke who had the deciding roll in the necking of two PM's.

The decision to reinstate Rudd will be heavy baggage and is the reason why, as I've stated before, he won't ever become PM.

Could not agree more.

The folk memory of the necking has now been amplified big time by Shorten's inability to denounce corruption in the union movement, or to pass the re-establishment of ABCC through the senate - both of which would have given him the momentum over Abbott.
He can't do it, can't make the logical political moves he is intelligent enough to know are essential because he is imprisoned by Labor movement culture.

 

[Stumpy Pete]

Shorten needs to hold his nose, swallow his past statements and let the Carbon and Mining Tax repeal legislation through – he also needs to do the same thing with a range of other Coalition election commitments (ie. ABCC).

In average-voter land they are recalling all the times the ALP and Greens said that the boats could not be stopped and that turning them around was not feasible and thinking to themselves “what else did they say that was wrong?” Abbott went to the election with series of policies that were sold with some very simplistic slogans, these included abolishing the carbon and mining taxes. As voters move from the “stop the boats” slogan to the others they will start asking “what’s stopping the PM from meeting some of his other core commitments?” It will not be too hard for the Coalition to point the finger squarely at Shorten at which time his and the ALPs numbers will drop further.

Regards

S. Pete

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Shorten needs to hold his nose, swallow his past statements and let the Carbon and Mining Tax repeal legislation through – he also needs to do the same thing with a range of other Coalition election commitments (ie. ABCC).

A backflip like that would make Christopher Pyne proud. After all the fuss of supporting the taxes, it would be foolish to let it through. I expect the repeal legislation to pass through the new-look senate anyway.

Labor should probably focus on the issue of jobs. The loss of Holden, Toyota and the indifference towards SPC could see Shorten gain traction. Also thought they could have targeted Pyne over the National Curriculum review, and Dutton over the $6 doctor fee a lot more. Neither is a good minister so subjecting them to scrutiny enough would see them flounder

 

[pazza]

Indeed keep pushing the jobs issue.

They do have an online campaign which has job losses ticking over.

That will resonate.

 

[Pessimistic]

Neither is a good minister ? Maybe its intentional and a big f you to health and education

 

[Gough]

Neither is a good minister ? Maybe its intentional and a big f you to health and education

You could add Hunt in the Enviroment and Dutton in Health to that list.

 

[Stumpy Pete]

A backflip like that would make Christopher Pyne proud. After all the fuss of supporting the taxes, it would be foolish to let it through. I expect the repeal legislation to pass through the new-look senate anyway.

Labor should probably focus on the issue of jobs. The loss of Holden, Toyota and the indifference towards SPC could see Shorten gain traction. Also thought they could have targeted Pyne over the National Curriculum review, and Dutton over the $6 doctor fee a lot more. Neither is a good minister so subjecting them to scrutiny enough would see them flounder

Problem for Labor is that (I think) they have a credibility issue when it comes to attack. It all started back with the Australia day race baititng, followed up with the misogyny attack, then the $70 billion in cuts and costings debacle and has continued with the "we would have saved Holden" nonsense. They even went hard too early on the $6 co-payment issue which was nothing more than a proposal from a former Abbott Health adviser in a paper to the Commission of Audit.

Regards

S. Pete