Polls Thread Mk III

[rodney hoo]

How can they be centrist when they want to barricade the whole country up from the rest of the world? Especially SA.

The British have just barricaded themselves from Europe, time we'll tell but all inward looking people normally don't get anywhere.

 

[GreyCrow]

I am all for it. No more handouts from other States.

We don't get handouts from any other state

 

[Reynolds Number]

NT News reporting a 10 percent swing to the ALP in Solomon, if anyone cares.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

NT News reporting a 10 percent swing to the ALP in Solomon, if anyone cares.

Hank will care. Northalives too. I care (because I think Labor have better policies, but also) because I'm amazed that there seems to be a big difference between what the MSM are reporting and what may be happening. I know this has happened in QLD and VIC at State level, but I wasn't in those states at the time, so I haven't born witness to the media and bookies saying one thing, while the people do the opposite thing. Of course the NT isn't the nation.

Very interesting Mr. Scorpion.

If you reckon that the ALP can win Longman and Dickson in QLD, then Flynn and Dawson are near certainties.

I believe Macquarie in NSW has shifted a great deal to the ALP since marriage equality has became a big issue. This is probably because of the sitting members religious affiliations and her perceived narrow mindedness.

I think that whilst Mayo is probably a given for Xenophon in SA, I reckon he has more chance of grabbing Barker than Grey but if he grabs all three, that could well put him in a "king-making" position.

 

[pjcrows]

Essential Poll with a late swing
ALP 51
LNP 49

 

[pazza]

NT News reporting a 10 percent swing to the ALP in Solomon, if anyone cares.

That's massive to turn a marginal Liberal into a safe Labor...

 

[pazza]

Essential Poll with a late swing
ALP 51
LNP 49

That would give Labor Government outright by 1 on Antony Green's calculator.

 

[ep2018]

That would give Labor Government outright by 1 on Antony Green's calculator.

Its within the margin of error.

Last night one poll claimed 51-49 to the LNP.

 

[Reynolds Number]

That's massive to turn a marginal Liberal into a safe Labor...

A PET scanner for a hospital which is promised by the CLP this election and was also promised by the CLP in the last three elections and never delivered is an example of the bulldust that had put the CLP on the nose.

Economy has also gone down the shitter up here too and that always makes it hard for the incumbent Federal government to woo swinging voters on their side, especially given decisions like sellinf major infrastructure to overseas countries which does have a detrimental impact on jobs.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Newspoll state breakdowns (June):

L/NP 2PPs:
NSW: 50.0 (-3.5)
VIC: 48.0 (-1.8)
QLD: 51.0 (-6.0)
WA: 54.0 (-4.3)
SA: 51.0 (-1.4)

It also finds that the swing against the government is smaller within the state capitals:

https://theaustralianatnewscorpau.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/web_news_fed_elect_newspoll.pdf

 

[deedog2]

Newspoll state breakdowns (June):

L/NP 2PPs:
NSW: 50.0 (-3.5)
VIC: 48.0 (-1.8)
QLD: 51.0 (-6.0)
WA: 54.0 (-4.3)
SA: 49.0 (-1.4)

It also finds that the swing against the government is smaller within the state capitals:

https://theaustralianatnewscorpau.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/web_news_fed_elect_newspoll.pdf

What do those swings indicate?

 

[Hank Scorpion]

What do those swings indicate?

Swings within each state since the last election

It's generally accepted that if Labor has any chance, then it needs to be picking up reasonable swings in NSW & QLD (which is indicated)

 

[Gough]

Xenophon also benefits from a tired Labor state government, and general uselessness of the opposition in South Australia.

 

[Northalives]

NT News reporting a 10 percent swing to the ALP in Solomon, if anyone cares.

The woman that currently holds the seat of Solomon, Griggs, had a swing against her at the last election when the ALP government was routed. Taking that into account, the fact that the NT CLP are a rabble and the fact that a lot of people are very upset at the Port Of Darwin being flogged off to the Chinese means that it would be a shock if the ALP didn't pick up this seat.

 

[little graham]

Xenophon also benefits from a tired Labor state government, and general uselessness of the opposition in South Australia.

He's going to win grey. One corrupt polly replaced with another.

 

[pjcrows]

Final Ipsos/Fairfax Poll
LNP 50
ALP 50

 

[GreyCrow]

Final Ipsos/Fairfax Poll
LNP 50
ALP 50

Based on 2013 Ipsos election poll 53.5LNP - 46.5ALP there is a 3.5% swing against the LNP.

Using Antony Greens calculator we see an ALP 71 LNP 75 with 4 Independent result (understanding swings aren't consistent across each seat)

 

[pjcrows]

If you include respondent allocated preferences, as ReachTEL do, it comes out at 51-49 ALP ahead.

 

[sherb]

What do those swings indicate?

That Tasmania is no longer a state apparently.

 

[pjcrows]

Galaxy
LNP 51
ALP 49

Essential
LNP 50.5
ALP 49.5

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Galaxy
LNP 51
ALP 49

Essential
LNP 50.5
ALP 49.5

Is that a fresh Essential poll this morning? Haven't seen it anywhere yet. Pretty late swing from the one they did a couple of days ago.

Still there is Ipsos I guess.

Are the preferences for the others respondent allocated or 2013 flows?

 

[pjcrows]

Is that a fresh Essential poll this morning? Haven't seen it anywhere yet. Pretty late swing from the one they did a couple of days ago.

Still there is Ipsos I guess.

Are the preferences for the others respondent allocated or 2013 flows?

Today's Essential.

All 2013 preferences. A bit less reliable.

 

[little graham]

The British have just barricaded themselves from Europe, time we'll tell but all inward looking people normally don't get anywhere.

The british did not. The English forced the Scottish against their will out of the European union.

and you think you have democracy lol.

 

[pjcrows]

Final ReachTEL
LNP 51
ALP 49

 

[pjcrows]

Final Newspoll
LNP 50.5
ALP 49.5

State breakdowns
NSW 50-50
QLD 52-48 LNP
VIC 51-49 ALP
SA 50-50
WA 53-47 LNP

NXT with about 25 in SA.

Indicates a hung parliament.