How will the 2016 Federal Election pan out?

[Northalives]

Turnbull wont last 6 months if its close

If the Coalition are returned with a seat count of under 80, then Turnbull will be knocked off by either Abbott or Morrison; probably Morrison but people should not underestimate how much love there is for Abbott amongst the Liberals.

If they lose, well that's the end for Turnbull anyway. Either way, Turnbull is a dead duck.

 

[Forward Press]

If the Coalition are returned with a seat count of under 80, then Turnbull will be knocked off by either Abbott or Morrison; probably Morrison but people should not underestimate how much love there is for Abbott amongst the Liberals.

If they lose, well that's the end for Turnbull anyway. Either way, Turnbull is a dead duck.

A comfortable Turnbull victory will buy him more time. The Lib right would still angle for him though.

 

[JackOutback]

Don't think Morrison has the support anymore. The right of the party hate him for turning on Abbott and he doesn't seem to fit with the moderates.

 

[imadodgyumpire]

I have a gut feel labor will win.

 

[Lebbo73]

I have 4 coalition seats going to the ALP in NSW and another Coalition seat going to an Independent (Oakeshott). Joyce isn't a certainty in New England either.

In the NT I can see the ALP picking Solomon.

In QLD, I think the ALP should pick up a minimum of 3 and probably 4 seats from the LNP with the Coalition definitely getting Fairfax (Palmer's vacated seat).

South Australia is the fly in the ointment because of that unctuous little man Xenophon. Nobody really knows where his preferences will flow. I have the ALP picking up Hindmarsh and probably losing Adelaide with Xenephon picking up Mayo and probably Barker. That means a net loss of 2 seats for the Coalition.

Tasmania could well be a wipe out for the Coalition with Lyons almost definitely an ALP gain form the Coalition and Bass and Braddon distinct possibilities to change hands from the Coalition to the ALP.

In Victoria there are probably 9 seats in play but I think the ALP would do well to pick up 1 (Corangamite) from the Coalition but are in real danger of loosing Batman to the Greens. This still equates to a a 1 seat loss for the Coalition.

Over in the West, the ALP vote is looking particularly strong relative to what the ALP normally poll over there and this puts the ALP firmly in the running to pick up the new seat of Burt, which is notionally Coalition and the seats of Swan and Cowan.

If the above is accurate, then the Coalition would lose between 18 to 20 seats; 15 and up to 17 directly to the ALP with 3 to the Independents (Oakeshott x1, Xenophon x2). The Coalition will gain 2, Fairfax and Adelaide and the ALP would lose 2, one each to the Coalition and the Greens.

Where do you get your misguided information from? The ALP will lose Batman to The Greens, yes, if the Coalition preferences The Greens.
The final 2PP vote will be 52-48 in favour of the LNP. The LNP will only have a net loss of 7 seats max.

 

[Northalives]

That sounds like an absolute best case scenario for Labor and I can't see everything turning out quite so perfectly.

Yeah mate, nothing is ever cut and dried and I could be way, way off the mark.

Newspoll used to be the only poll to give a fairly accurate picture of what was going on but it's now been taken over by Galaxy and as a consequence, there have been significant changes in the polling methodology. This necessarily means that we can't be sure just how accurate the polling is or more to the point, whether it's as accurate as Newspoll used to be.

I deliberately set out to be as conservative as possible with my "projections". It's easy to let hope get in the way of hard-headedness but as I said, I could be way of the mark and all it would take, is for the Coalition to fall over the line in most of these seats by 0.1 of a percent and my predictions would be way off.

 

[aCunningPlan]

A comfortable Turnbull victory will buy him more time. The Lib right would still angle for him though.

I feel like Turnbull would be safe as leader if there was an understanding between the Libs and the likes of the NXT to negotiate all legislation on merit with him as leader otherwise the knifing of another PM would senate grind to a halt.

 

[GreyCrow]

I feel like Turnbull would be safe as leader if there was an understanding between the Libs and the likes of the NXT to negotiate all legislation on merit with him as leader otherwise the knifing of another PM would senate grind to a halt.

Wasn't this the same deal Windsor and Oakeshott were after? Or was that Wilkie?

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Don't expect too many national polls between now and Friday evening so I'll submit my prediction now too (in ridiculous depth so I look prophetic if I'm correct.)

Primaries:
L/NP: 42.5% (-3.1%)
ALP: 35.2% (+1.8%)
GRN: 11.0% (+2.3%)

2PP:
L/NP: 50.1% (-3.4%)
ALP: 49.9% (+3.4%)

Coalition swings by state:
NSW: -3.0
VIC: -2.0
QLD: -4.5
WA: -7.5
SA: -2.5
TAS: -1.0

Seats gained (Starting from ABC's pendulum):
L/NP:
ALP: Solomon (NT), Lyons (TAS), Cowan (WA), Burt (WA), Swan (WA), Petrie (QLD), Capricornia (QLD), Longman (QLD), Dickson (QLD), Eden-Monaro (NSW), Page (NSW), Macarthur (NSW) [all from L/NP]
GRN:
NXT: Mayo (SA), Grey (SA), Barker (SA) [all from Lib]
OTH: O'Connor (WA - Nationals), Cowper (NSW - Rob Oakeshott) [both from Lib]

Total Seats
L/NP: 72 (-17)
NWA: 1 (+1)
ALP: 69 (+12)
GRN: 1 (-)
NXT: 3 (+3)
OTH: 4 (+1) (Oakeshott, Katter, Wilkie, McGowan)

Notes:
- NXT should get 3 seats off the Libs. Apart from Mayo, not sure which ones they'll be.
- Despite being a Liberal marginal, Burt will be my tip for the night's biggest swing. Good Labor territory, loss of personal vote, big swing in WA.


Senate:



L/NP: 30 (-3)
NWA: 1 (+1)
ALP: 27 (+2)
GRN: 9 (-1)
NXT: 4 (+3)
OTH: 5 (-1) (Leyonhjelm, Lazarus, Lambie, Day, Hanson)

 

[Northalives]

Don't think Morrison has the support anymore. The right of the party hate him for turning on Abbott and he doesn't seem to fit with the moderates.

So maybe that other sharp-tool-in-the-box Dutton could be the one if it isn't Abbott or Morrison?

 

[Pessimistic]

Jus taking a moment to reflect on the statements from the coalition after 2010 voters would punish Oakshott and Wilkie for siding with labor from supposedly right wing elactorates

 

[Pessimistic]

So maybe that other sharp-tool-in-the-box Dutton could be the one if it isn't Abbott or Morrison?

I reckon at some point Dutton will be in the frema as potential right wing leader, but it will not come to pass

 

[Lebbo73]

Jus taking a moment to reflect on the statements from the coalition after 2010 voters would punish Oakshott and Wilkie for siding with labor from supposedly right wing elactorates

No one said Wilkie would be punished!

 

[Northalives]

Don't expect too many national polls between now and Friday evening so I'll submit my prediction now too (in ridiculous depth so I look prophetic if I'm correct.)

Primaries:
L/NP: 42.5% (-3.1%)
ALP: 35.2% (+1.8%)
GRN: 11.0% (+2.3%)

2PP:
L/NP: 50.1% (-3.4%)
ALP: 49.9% (+3.4%)

Coalition swings by state:
NSW: -3.0
VIC: -2.0
QLD: -4.5
WA: -7.5
SA: -2.5
TAS: -1.0

Seats gained (Starting from ABC's pendulum):
L/NP:
ALP: Solomon (NT), Lyons (TAS), Cowan (WA), Burt (WA), Swan (WA), Petrie (QLD), Capricornia (QLD), Longman (QLD), Dickson (QLD), Eden-Monaro (NSW), Page (NSW), Macarthur (NSW) [all from L/NP]
GRN:
NXT: Mayo (SA), Grey (SA), Barker (SA) [all from Lib]
OTH: O'Connor (WA - Nationals), Cowper (NSW - Rob Oakeshott) [both from Lib]

Total Seats
L/NP: 72 (-17)
NWA: 1 (+1)
ALP: 69 (+12)
GRN: 1 (-)
NXT: 3 (+3)
OTH: 4 (+1) (Oakeshott, Katter, Wilkie, McGowan)

Notes:
- NXT should get 3 seats off the Libs. Apart from Mayo, not sure which ones they'll be.
- Despite being a Liberal marginal, Burt will be my tip for the night's biggest swing. Good Labor territory, loss of personal vote, big swing in WA.


Senate:

View attachment 261103

L/NP: 30 (-3)
NWA: 1 (+1)
ALP: 27 (+2)
GRN: 9 (-1)
NXT: 4 (+3)
OTH: 5 (-1) (Leyonhjelm, Lazarus, Lambie, Day, Hanson)

Very interesting Mr. Scorpion.

If you reckon that the ALP can win Longman and Dickson in QLD, then Flynn and Dawson are near certainties.

I believe Macquarie in NSW has shifted a great deal to the ALP since marriage equality has became a big issue. This is probably because of the sitting members religious affiliations and her perceived narrow mindedness.

I think that whilst Mayo is probably a given for Xenophon in SA, I reckon he has more chance of grabbing Barker than Grey but if he grabs all three, that could well put him in a "king-making" position.

 

[JackOutback]

So maybe that other sharp-tool-in-the-box Dutton could be the one if it isn't Abbott or Morrison?

Christ, mate, I have to sleep tonight

 

[Forward Press]

Since Bernardi and Cormann cannot be PM, this guy could be Turnbull's successor.

Let that sink in for a while...

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Very interesting Mr. Scorpion.

If you reckon that the ALP can win Longman and Dickson in QLD, then Flynn and Dawson are near certainties.

I believe Macquarie in NSW has shifted a great deal to the ALP since marriage equality has became a big issue. This is probably because of the sitting members religious affiliations and her perceived narrow mindedness.

I think that whilst Mayo is probably a given for Xenophon in SA, I reckon he has more chance of grabbing Barker than Grey but if he grabs all three, that could well put him in a "king-making" position.

Longman & Dickson have a few things going for them over other seats:
- Anecdotally, Longman is in play
- Largest swings in the QLD state election were in Northern Brisbane/Caboolture
- Wyatt Roy is being investigated by the AFP. Dutton tried to shaft his constituents in 2010 and is generally shown in a negative media light.

I could be wrong on these two specifically, but in any case, if my prediction of Labor pulling a 4.5% swing in QLD is correct, I think 3 gains would be a minimum.

Agree on Macquarie, it would probably be the next to fall in NSW.

 

[pjcrows]

Labor won't pull a 4.5% swing in QLD.

 

[aCunningPlan]

Very interesting Mr. Scorpion.

If you reckon that the ALP can win Longman and Dickson in QLD, then Flynn and Dawson are near certainties.

I believe Macquarie in NSW has shifted a great deal to the ALP since marriage equality has became a big issue. This is probably because of the sitting members religious affiliations and her perceived narrow mindedness.

I think that whilst Mayo is probably a given for Xenophon in SA, I reckon he has more chance of grabbing Barker than Grey but if he grabs all three, that could well put him in a "king-making" position.

Can I just say, for the record, I never thought in my lifetime I never would have ever seen the day the Liberals looked at risk of losing Barker! It is about as conservative as you can get, but forever ignored. If you think the NXT will automatically side with Labor (who knows why people assume that) look at Barker, it's former Nationals candidate, and the constituents they would need to appease there. If this is a hung parliament anything could happen.

 

[Slax]

I have 4 coalition seats going to the ALP in NSW and another Coalition seat going to an Independent (Oakeshott). Joyce isn't a certainty in New England either.

In the NT I can see the ALP picking Solomon.

In QLD, I think the ALP should pick up a minimum of 3 and probably 4 seats from the LNP with the Coalition definitely getting Fairfax (Palmer's vacated seat).

South Australia is the fly in the ointment because of that unctuous little man Xenophon. Nobody really knows where his preferences will flow. I have the ALP picking up Hindmarsh and probably losing Adelaide with Xenephon picking up Mayo and probably Barker. That means a net loss of 2 seats for the Coalition.

Tasmania could well be a wipe out for the Coalition with Lyons almost definitely an ALP gain form the Coalition and Bass and Braddon distinct possibilities to change hands from the Coalition to the ALP.

In Victoria there are probably 9 seats in play but I think the ALP would do well to pick up 1 (Corangamite) from the Coalition but are in real danger of loosing Batman to the Greens. This still equates to a a 1 seat loss for the Coalition.

Over in the West, the ALP vote is looking particularly strong relative to what the ALP normally poll over there and this puts the ALP firmly in the running to pick up the new seat of Burt, which is notionally Coalition and the seats of Swan and Cowan.

If the above is accurate, then the Coalition would lose between 18 to 20 seats; 15 and up to 17 directly to the ALP with 3 to the Independents (Oakeshott x1, Xenophon x2). The Coalition will gain 2, Fairfax and Adelaide and the ALP would lose 2, one each to the Coalition and the Greens.

If Bill Shorten could of told one person to shut his mouth until after the election campaign it would of been Daniel Andrews, his CFA gaff has cost the ALP seats in Victoria for sure. The worst part of it is he hasn't even tried explaining what he is doing, which if you actually here the reasoning it is very sound and not at war with the CFA, it was about turning already paid stations into fully paid stations like the MFP and removing the volunteers. For those not familiar with Victoria the CFA actually now does the outer suburbs and places and major regional towns, it was about taking volunteers out of them and getting to join either volunteer stations or the SES.

The theory is right, the logic is right, the execution was terrible and communication pathetic.

 

[Forward Press]

Labor won't pull a 4.5% swing in QLD.

Don't see why not, swung 14% at the last State election. Obviously won't be anywhere near that large but the Kevin Rudd factor surely wasn't that large.

 

[Northalives]

Longman & Dickson have a few things going for them over other seats:
- Anecdotally, Longman is in play
- Largest swings in the QLD state election were in Northern Brisbane/Caboolture
- Wyatt Roy is being investigated by the AFP. Dutton tried to shaft his constituents in 2010 and is generally shown in a negative media light.

I could be wrong on these two specifically, but in any case, if my prediction of Labor pulling a 4.5% swing in QLD is correct, I think 3 gains would be a minimum.

Agree on Macquarie, it would probably be the next to fall in NSW.

Yeah that's it isn't it. There are a whole lot of variables in all seats and now with the rise of the "anti-political" independents, anything can happen in any seats so the days of saying, "well, if there's going to be a 3% swing this, seat and that seat will go", those days are gone I think.

Take for example the seat of Hindmarsh in South Australia. At the last election, Johnny Howard did the rounds of the ethnic communities in that seat and scared the life out of them by saying, "if you vote for Labor, then your Churches will be forced to marry homosexuals.". Three years on and the ethnic communities who freaked out then now know that it was crap and what's more, Abbott/Turnbull screwed them on pensions, schools and health and they are none too pleased. You will probably find that Hindmarsh will change hands.

 

[Northalives]

Can I just say, for the record, I never thought in my lifetime I never would have ever seen the day the Liberals looked at risk of losing Barker! It is about as conservative as you can get, but forever ignored. If you think the NXT will automatically side with Labor (who knows why people assume that) look at Barker, it's former Nationals candidate, and the constituents they would need to appease there. If this is a hung parliament anything could happen.

Agree wholeheartedly about Barker and Xenophon.

There is absolutely no guarantee that Xenophon will side with Labor, in fact, I'd be more inclined to believe that he will be more sympathetic to the Coalition but he is a bit of a **** so who knows what he could do.

 

[Jascave]

Which seat will be the most critical in deciding the election results on Saturday night?

What chance have the Coalition got of holding onto Higgins (Vic)?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[GreyCrow]

It may well come down to WA for a result to be known. But I also think it will be Monday when we can get some clarity