Polls Thread Mk III

[Father Jack]

Have the libs gone with a Victorian since Menzies? Droopy **** I suppose. They haven’t gone with Queenslanders either. They are the ACB

Is this a serious question?

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

We will have Dutton or Frydenberg as PM in the next sitting.

Both psychos.

Potato a proto-fascist, Fraudenberg a Randian loon, desperate to impose grueling austerity.

Morrison's only benefit is that he is a coward, who eventually buckles under pressure or simply does nothing at all. The two alternatives however, will aggressively pursue harm.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Newspoll 53-47 to ALP. Primaries: ALP 39 LNP 39 Greens 10 ON 3 Other 9. Morrison: Approve 51 (-4) Disapprove 45 (+4). Albanese: Approve 38 (-2) Disapprove 46 (+1). Preferred PM: Morrison 51 (-2) Albanese 33 (0).

The primary vote being square would have them worried.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

I've been thinking about why voters including majority coalition want federal quarantine it makes sense now.

Voters trust scomo to do a good job and when leaks happen they plead to get somebody more component to do the job. That is liberals.

So majority of voters want libs to run hotel not because its their job but because they are more component and trust them

You need to sub in someone more component (sic), to start authoring your spin.

 

[Power Raid]

I've been thinking about why voters including majority coalition want federal quarantine it makes sense now.

Voters trust scomo to do a good job and when leaks happen they plead to get somebody more component to do the job. That is liberals.

So majority of voters want libs to run hotel not because its their job but because they are more component and trust them

It is stupid to build a purpose built quarantine facility

Quarantine should be phased out in 2022, unless it is an election issue, as the world opens up after suitable opportunity to be vaccinated. We could achieve it in Sept-Dec this year but it will be delayed for politics.

So imagine wasted a few hundred million on a facility, that has less beds than what you could build new houses for and no longer having a quarantine purpose?

Perhaps dealing with homelessness should be a priority of the states rather than fear

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Morgan Poll:

ALP support has increased to 53.5% (up 1% point since mid-July) cf. L-NP on 46.5% (down 1% points) on a two-party preferred basis after Sydney’s month-long lockdown was extended for at least another month and third largest city Brisbane entered its fifth lockdown in late July according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention …

Primary support for the L-NP dropped 2% points since mid-July to 37% and is now dead level with the ALP, unchanged on 37%. Greens support was up 1% point to 12.5%.

Support for One Nation was unchanged at 3% while support for Independents/Others has increased by 1% point to 10.5%.

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in Australia’s two largest States of Victoria and NSW and also holding leads in both South Australia and Tasmania. The L-NP leads only in Queensland and Western Australia.

The ALP has its largest lead in Victoria on 59.5% (up 3% points since mid-July) compared to the L-NP on 40.5% (down 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Victoria recently emerged from a two-week lockdown in late July, its fifth lockdown of the pandemic so far.

This result represents a swing of 6.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP has also built on its narrow two-party preferred lead in NSW with the ALP on 51% (up 0.5% points since mid-July) cf. L-NP on 49% (down 0.5% points) which represents a swing of 2.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The L-NP has its strongest result In Queensland with the LNP on 52% (up 0.5% points since mid-July) cf. ALP 48% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. However, despite the LNP’s lead this represents a substantial swing of 6.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The L-NP has also regained the lead in Western Australia with the L-NP on 51.5% (up 4% points since mid-June) cf. ALP on 48.5% (down 4% points). Despite the L-NP regaining the advantage in Western Australia this still represents a swing of 4.1% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP holds a two-party preferred lead in the smaller States with the ALP 55.5% (up 4.5% points since mid-July) cf. L-NP 44.5% (down 4.5% points) in South Australia. This represents a swing of 4.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. In Tasmania the ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46% – a swing of 2% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election.

 

[dusty1234!]

Interesting that the support for Labor has absolutely solidified in Vic, and gone up in NSW, but gone backwards in the other states. At the end of the day as long as Labor picks up one or teach in each of Qld, WA, and Tas, the other states should take care of it IMO

 

[Hank Scorpion]

The ALP has its largest lead in Victoria on 59.5% (up 3% points since mid-July) compared to the L-NP on 40.5% (down 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Victoria recently emerged from a two-week lockdown in late July, its fifth lockdown of the pandemic so far.

This result represents a swing of 6.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

(it's still just a poll - vote, campaign, volunteer, do whatever we can to make this real)

 

[dusty1234!]

(it's still just a poll - vote, campaign, volunteer, do whatever we can to make this real)

Jesus. We are on the right track I think. But the election is just too far away. We just got to keep fighting the good fight.

 

[Fire]

WA is a reversion to norm, but I wonder what Queenslanders are looking at tbh.

Glad Victorians are seeing all the scorched earth tho.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

ALP (53.5%) increases lead over L-NP (46.5%) – largest ALP lead since the bushfires in early 2020 - Roy Morgan Research

www.roymorgan.com

 

[Burro]

WA is a reversion to norm, but I wonder what Queenslanders are looking at tbh.

Glad Victorians are seeing all the scorched earth tho.

Queenslanders now are realising that fossil fuels are not their salvation. Even iron ore will drop due to a new process to reclaim metals.

 

[Vader]

Queenslanders now are realising that fossil fuels are not their salvation. Even iron ore will drop due to a new process to reclaim metals.

Iron Ore will drop if/when they get those mines they've bought in Africa up & running.

 

[Fire]

Queenslanders now are realising that fossil fuels are not their salvation. Even iron ore will drop due to a new process to reclaim metals.

So in the wake of this realisation they increase their support for the LNP?

 

[Burro]

So in the wake of this realisation they increase their support for the LNP?

Don't misinterpret the figures.

 

[Fire]

Don't misinterpret the figures.

the LNP are in front and had a recent boost.

Like, if you have an explanation that's fine, I'd like to hear it. But the only way to misinterpret those figures is to pretend they say something different.

 

[Vindicater]

the LNP are in front and had a recent boost.

Like, if you have an explanation that's fine, I'd like to hear it. But the only way to misinterpret those figures is to pretend they say something different.

The boost is within the margin of the error.

The 6 point swing from last election is still huge and can be seen as a real swing.

If the LNP pick up another 0.5 or higher next poll we are seeing it swing back.

 

[Burro]

the LNP are in front and had a recent boost.

Like, if you have an explanation that's fine, I'd like to hear it. But the only way to misinterpret those figures is to pretend they say something different.

That would be something the LNP do with figures. Wait for the real poll. And if you are happy with the abilities of our government then great.

 

[DaRick]

I have to remind the VIC's here that QLD has some of the bluest of the blue electorates in the country (Maranoa, Groom etc.).

Also, SE QLD (working/middle-class families, tourism) is different from the Central Coast (coal, natural gas) which is different from FNQ (coal, tourism). Then there are the aforementioned interior electorates, which the LNP won't lose in a thousand years.

QLD is more reliant on small businesses than VIC, so repeated lockdowns from now until heaven knows when won't do our economy, and thus ScoMo, any favours. The final margin, though, is anyone's guess at this stage, but even a worst-case scenario should see the ALP fare better in 2019. Albanese is more liked than Shorten up here (not saying much, because Shorten was associated with knifing Queenslander Rudd), and I doubt we'll see franking credits scare off SE QLD or another Adani convoy.

Can Morrison win them all back with another round of the ol' Daggy Dad schtick? It'll have some effect, but even with voters' short memories, overcoming the baggage of botched vaccine rollouts and repeated recessions is an unusual challenge.

 

[DaRick]

Iron Ore will drop if/when they get those mines they've bought in Africa up & running.

Maybe misreading you, but iron ore is mostly irrelevant in QLD.

Coal is the big controversy.

 

[Magruder]

Both psychos.

Potato a proto-fascist, Fraudenberg a Randian loon, desperate to impose grueling austerity.

Morrison's only benefit is that he is a coward, who eventually buckles under pressure or simply does nothing at all. The two alternatives however, will aggressively pursue harm.

The nicest thing you can say about Morrison is that he has not yet accomplished anything that can’t be undone relatively easily.

(Apart from Strawberry needle safety, his signature achievement.)

All three are psychopaths, Morrison however is a malignant narcissist and so particularly dangerous.

 

[dusty1234!]

Well I guess we won’t be seeing random260 for at least a couple more weeks
54-46 Labor on newspoll. Confirmed suspicions that the age poll might have missed a mark a bit

 

[Magruder]

the LNP are in front and had a recent boost.

Like, if you have an explanation that's fine, I'd like to hear it. But the only way to misinterpret those figures is to pretend they say something different.

posted some commentary on the nine resolve poll that appears in the Costello papers a while back.

the most recent iteration showed movement in the governments favour in terms of primary vote.

Go check out its methodology. Its claim to have a 2.2% moe wand confidence interval of 95% is pretty hard to reconcile with:


1. it excluded around 400 respondents for no disclosed reason when compared to earlier published polls.
2. Applies weightings to ensure “all voting blocks” are appropriately represented.

it could be construed that the poll is adjusted to suit an agenda or frame a narrative.

because or media companies don’t do that, do they?

 

[dusty1234!]

posted some commentary on the nine resolve poll that appears in the Costello papers a while back.

the most recent iteration showed movement in the governments favour in terms of primary vote.

Go check out its methodology. Its claim to have a 2.2% moe wand confidence interval of 95% is pretty hard to reconcile with:


1. it excluded around 400 respondents for no disclosed reason when compared to earlier published polls.
2. Applies weightings to ensure “all voting blocks” are appropriately represented.

it could be construed that the poll is adjusted to suit an agenda or frame a narrative.

because or media companies don’t do that, do they?

There is no transparency in terms of polling.
How is it even done? I don't understand how you can get a accurate representation of public opinion when you are polling truly random people

 

[Magruder]

There is no transparency in terms of polling.
How is it even done? I don't understand how you can get a accurate representation of public opinion when you are polling truly random people

Their disclosed method is to weight responses, (presumably by age, education, occupation, gender, ethnicity etc) to arrive at a representative sample of the polity.

Nothing wrong with it in theory except it potentially magnifies outliers and could be open to manipulation. This seems especially plausible when you reduce your sample from 2000 to 1600.