Snuffaluphagus
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- Sep 10, 2015
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Ports 1st
Pies 1st
St Kilda 2nd
Pies 1st
St Kilda 2nd
Win Prizes Port, Pies & Saints 2024 Death Ride
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King Huskii
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Yes, even if it stuffs my tips.
Lfg Tiges!
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How good was Bolton in that quarter!
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Damn. Still plenty of time in the season for Port to fall apart though
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Fun to dream while it lasted, death ride continues next week.
King Huskii
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Port will be good this year if Butters and Rozee remain fit
Port are still mediocre defensively. They'll have to improve that significantly to be the real deal. Let the Eagles have 20 scoring shots and let the Tigers score 77 to 3QT.
Also, Dixon makes walking look difficult.
Without improvement, they are a prelim finalist at best I think. Not great for us, but pick 15 would still be a decent get.
Also, Dixon makes walking look difficult.
Without improvement, they are a prelim finalist at best I think. Not great for us, but pick 15 would still be a decent get.
Look at who they have played.
Hopefully they start losing soon
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Richmond at the MCG is no gimme.
- Nov 26, 2018
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Interesting looking back at the Port trade, I felt we gave too much at the time but maybe it looks 'ok' now.
Give: 2023 R2 Compensation (then Pick 23) and 2024 R2 Freo pick
Get: 2024 R1 Port Adelaide
There's still a big range of results but if I was to put my best guess on results it
Give: 2023 Pick 32 (after all the bids and compensation) + 2024 Pick 25-30 (prior to bids/compensation)
Get: 2024 Pick 9-16 (prior to bids/compensation)
Give: 2023 R2 Compensation (then Pick 23) and 2024 R2 Freo pick
Get: 2024 R1 Port Adelaide
There's still a big range of results but if I was to put my best guess on results it
Give: 2023 Pick 32 (after all the bids and compensation) + 2024 Pick 25-30 (prior to bids/compensation)
Get: 2024 Pick 9-16 (prior to bids/compensation)
Snuffaluphagus
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Cant lose on that trade as I posted elsewhere. Dont forget the two North priority picks push back the 2nd round two spots already. The 2nd round is cooked
- Nov 26, 2018
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Yeah the dilution between R1 and R2 is what makes the trade pretty hard to lose for us.
Insights being;
- If Port finishes 10th or below we can't lose the trade under any measure no matter where we finish
- If Freo makes the finals we can't lose the trade even when taking into account a typical upgrade premium
- If Port wins the premiership our biggest exposure is about the points equivalent of 37
2024 Bids & Compensation
- From my view only McCluggage or English could trigger R1 compensation, with it looking like only maybe English could move
- There seems to be 1-4 players forecast to be around round 1 bids, although more are possible
From a points perspective (I know, I know), for equivalency if we take the 2023 pick we gave up as 32 (after all the bids and compensation) then;
Port Pick - Freo Pick to make the points equal [+ 2023 pick 32]
22 - 51
21 - 48
20 - 46
19 - 44
18 - 42
17 - 39
16 - 37
15 - 35
14 - 32
13 - 30
12 - 28
11 - 26
10 - 23
9 - 21
Upgrade Premium
Of course that ignores the big premium needed to trade up.
Using a nominal 20% uplift required then if the Port pick ended up being 22 after bids (i.e. premiers after assumed bids) then the equivalent pick for it to be equal would be ~pick 40 which is likely a top 4-6 pick.
On the flipside because of the North compensation picks even if we finished bottom of the ladder it would be at most pick 25 we'd give up with it, resulting in a net loss of the points equivalent of pick 37.
I can't stand the ****wits but imagine being like West Coast and being that sh**e but still not having a second selection until the other side of pick 30.
As much as I hate them it isn't right in an 18 team competition.
Kind of like when we entered the comp. Picked up “free agents” with their former clubs gifted 16yo prodigies. So when we got an early pick next year all the top-end talent had already been gifted away. We were ****ed over 2 ways.
King Huskii
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I think you will find WC will receive a priority pick or three. They might get one as a second pick after their first
Agreed but TBH what I just said in my previous post and the reason behind it would probably form part of their justification.
The system has basically made it so they can’t get more than one good draft pick without the AFL intervening with an assistance package.
In the good old days we finished bottom three and got a second pick inside the top 20 and draft Nat Fyfe with it. That’s still how it should be but the AFL has ****ed it all up.
freo84
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Chris Judd was a priority pick right before our pick.
King Huskii
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No need to remind me
freo84
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Sorry for the trigger but i didn't know until today when I looked. I'm actually disgusted at how this club was treated in its infancy compared to the newer clubs.
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We were brought in to weaken West Coast, so no way they were gonna help us get good. The AFL threw us to the wolves.
