Predict the future: when will our next finals appearance be?

[Baudolino]

Lots of emotive posting about the future of the club tonight and understandably so. The question on everyone's lips seems to be "what happens from here?" I'm honestly unsure what to think myself, so I want to get a sense what others are thinking will happen in 2022 and beyond.

As we all know, Geelong has made finals in 14 of the last 15 years. Over the last decade, most of those finals appearances have been absymal, and this sour end to each season has led to a repetitive annual discourse about Geelong in which much off-season speculation is focused around whether we're about to fall off a cliff or not. However, with the one exception of 2015, every single time we have been predicted to fall out of contention over the past decade, we have made finals the next year, in defiance of the expectations of many pundits, opposition fans, and often Cats supporters. In the aftermath of yet another humiliating failure in finals, this annual discourse looks set to begin again, with many sure to predict that we're due to fall from relevance in 2022. Others will no doubt counter that such predictions have been made many times before and nearly always been wrong.

So let's canvass predictions. Will we defy expectations again or is this finally the real end of our finals era?

 

[fpm84]

We should absolutely make finals next year. Stewart back, hopefully fewer injury interruptions to Cameron and Duncan, should be a ‘normal’ season with crowds and home ground advantages back.

A more pertinent question would be when we will genuinely challenge again.

 

[Vivy]

I'm fairly confident we will make it.

I doubt there are any retirements on the horizon and we'll have 9 games at home again with crowds. We'll be fighting for top 6 I think but might be difficult to make top 4. I see a few sides who are clearly still growing with their list that will be hard to go past in the H&A in WB, Melb, and Port

 

[Wish Wellingtons]

We are the only team in the top four that will not improve next year

 

[Mad_Hatter]

Will make finals again next year, nothing surer.
Doesn't mean we are a genuine flag threat nor does it mean we'll turn up and compete, but we'll make them.

 

[Commando]

Question should be premiership.. not finals

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Next year.
Will finish in the 4, lose week 1, win week 2 and lose week 3.
It’s pretty much followed that script for the past 10 years. Why would it change next year?

 

[Baudolino]

Next year.
Will finish in the 4, lose week 1, win week 2 and lose week 3.
It’s pretty much followed that script for the past 10 years. Why would it change next year?

Idk, going by the review thread, quite a few people seem to think we're on the verge of dropping down the ladder.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Idk, going by the review thread, quite a few people seem to think we're on the verge of dropping down the ladder.

Yeah maybe. Might even be for the best if that happens.

 

[krided]

Definitely enough juice to make a finals appearance next year, despite a reasonable amount of retirees looming.
Question is what the team will do once they reach the finals?
No one can withstand this bittersweet success anymore.

 

[Turbocat]

Probably need to revisit this after the draft period... to see what we do. Do we trade off picks for someone like Sidebottom or use them in some form to accumulate youthful talent

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Yeah, need to come back after the list management period is done - see who retires, gets traded out/traded in, etc.

I think the drop begins next year, but there's still enough quality, and the home ground advantage, there that I don't think it'll be a plummet. I suspect we'll finish 12th-7th. Whether or not we make finals also depends on how much improvement is coming from those teams below us as it's unlikely we'll be improving much. If we do make finals, it'll be a first-week exit, and then we won't be making them for several years after that.

 

[winty]

Can see us finishing in the lower half of the top eight and being bundled out in the first week.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

Can see us finishing in the lower half of the top eight and being bundled out in the first week.

Unless we can win the flag, I hope this is the case. Would put the club on the spot and you'd assume they'd see that we would be on a significant downward trend.
It would no longer be top 4 over and over but scrapping just to make finals that'll push the club into making the hard decision.

 

[Chinacats]

We have 14-15 30 or over year olds on the list ? I would cut half and start getting youth in. Finals who cares!

 

[Commando]

Can see us finishing in the lower half of the top eight and being bundled out in the first week.

Yeah 6-12 log jam
The double up fixture games will probably cost us

 

[Chat Pile]

You'll play finals next year.

 

[Strange Cat]

Can see us finishing in the lower half of the top eight and being bundled out in the first week.

Pretty much this , I think we will play the kids more next year in the first half of the year and then end up in the lower area of the top 8.

if we drop out entirely it wouldn’t shock me, but either way I’ll be shocked if we challenge for the flag anytime soon

 

[And_ROOS]

We easily make top 8 especially if we get home games, and we probably take 3rd or 4th again. Maybe its not a sure thing til the second or last game of the season.

And then we bomb the QF, scrape the SF and get smashed in the PF.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

We have 14-15 30 or over year olds on the list ? I would cut half and start getting youth in. Finals who cares!

I do. Timing is all wrong. Draft this year for projected 2023 debuts.

Even if you don't think we're a shot, gutting the side right now is the wrong decision

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Hard to argue that Melbourne, Dogs, Lions and Port won't be the top 4.

Swans and Dons, love what they've done this year but they rely on a lot of young players so easy to see them drop out with a harder draw.

From outside the 8 coming in I think Freo is worth considering, but the sides coming in I think would be Richmond and saints.

I think we finish in the 8 and see off a few champions

 

[Seeds]

Yeah maybe. Might even be for the best if that happens.

Hope it happens now. Otherwise we are just depaying further into the future when we will next be seriously competitive again.

 

[Seeds]

We easily make top 8 especially if we get home games, and we probably take 3rd or 4th again. Maybe its not a sure thing til the second or last game of the season.

And then we bomb the QF, scrape the SF and get smashed in the PF.

We get less home games then every other club. That is not an advantage.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

They will make the 8 - because the competition is as weak as pisss

However i think whats going to happen - if Geel/Scott stick to the same failed short passing possession game - then the media will call out those wins for whhat they are - rubbish - pointless wins

If Geel play a completely different game plan - with quick and fast ball movement - and pile on the wins - then they are worthwhile wins - because that type of football can actually win flags

You watch Geel games - there will be a player at FB - and Duncan and Stewart are probably the worst 2 offenders - there 9-10 metres away - screaming and appealing/pleading with the bloke whose got the ball to give them a short pass

 

[grum]

You never know, out of lockdown by then, players will be all able to go to the barbers.

It will be a whole new look, no man buns, and head bands to adjust.

Opposition might have trouble with our identities.