Premiership Contenders

[cynical]

Only Geelong can beat the Pies at the MCG but they need one of Hawkins/Mooney to stand up as well as trav varcoe.

Carlton might be able to exploit Geelong with pace but they cant exploit the pies.

Hawks too many injuries.

WCE not gonna happen at the MCG, maybe next year.

 

[Jesus Baulks]

Collingwood



Everyone else

 

[detox]

I think with our injuries, whilst decimated at the moment, we could be on the up.

90% to regain Rioli, Sewell, Lewis, Lisle/Shoe, Bateman for our next game after the bye.

Stratton is apparently progressing very well and is a smokey to return before finals, which would be in insane boost.

Hale whilst not near as good as Rough is playing his forward/ruck role well, and has been kicking 2-3 per week. Hodge starting to dominate.

If we could get the above players back, Get stratts back into our defence with Gibson and Lisle (who has performed well), and manage to not loose any more, we will still be able to push anyone. IN saying that though we will probably loose 10 more to injury before then with the luck we have been having.

Right now its Collingwood,

Geelong

Carlton/Wc/Hawthorn

 

[10571z]

Collingwood are so far from certanties.

Finals is do or die. 1 bad match is all it takes for a year of hard work to come undone. Yeah we are killing this year but an off day in the finals or gf means it was all for nothing.

On a bad day Carlton, hawks or cats could beat us. I dont think west coast could at the G where we would be playing them.

we need to go back to back. We have everything at our disposal

 

[fishardansin]

The Pies seem to be the favourites.

Only Geelong have show they can match it with them.

Below the Pies it could be anyone depending on the make up of the 4. WC can beat Geelong and Carlton. WC and Hawthorn seem evenly matched.
Geelong on their day could probably beat any team but have also looked vulnerable to all mentioned.

Hawthorn have injury issues and despite having a psychological edge over Geelong come finals time probably are a more likely chance against WC and Carlton.

Carlton I reckon are at the bottom of that pack. Whilst capable of putting up a good showing against the mentioned teams, haven't shown they will yet be a genuine threat against them come finals time. This could change though.

The way I see it you could group them like this:

Collingwood

Geelong, WC, Hawthorn

Carlton

This is pretty close. With current injury worries I'd put Hawthorn in Carlton territory. That said I'll assume that Hawthorn will get many back.

Also if Geelong can get everyone back from injury and suspension then I'd go:

Collingwood>>>>Geelong>>>>>>>>>Hawthorn>>WC>>Carlton.

 

[EagleMan87]

There is never a certainty for the flag in AFL

1991 west coast dominated, 3 games clear and yet lost grand final day.
1992 geelong had an averagew winning margin of 70 plus points, was the highest scoring team in history, beat the eagles during the finals, yet lost grand final.
1993 west coast were deemed for back to back and yet out of nowhere essendon came and won.
1996 sydney smashed north during the home and away season by 80 points, and yet lost grand final day lost.
2003 the pies had the week off, beat the lions in melb, fresher, better, and seemed to take the crown off bris, come grand final day, they lost.
2008 everyone remembers that one.
geelong all set for the premiership taking, then lost it all on grand final day.

The pies are deemed certainty to get there, winning it means that our opponent need not show up.
who would have seen the lions stop essendon in 2001??

Collingwood are so far from certanties.

Finals is do or die. 1 bad match is all it takes for a year of hard work to come undone. Yeah we are killing this year but an off day in the finals or gf means it was all for nothing.

On a bad day Carlton, hawks or cats could beat us. I dont think west coast could at the G where we would be playing them.

we need to go back to back. We have everything at our disposal

Agreed on both counts.

 

[captain peanut]

Only Geelong can beat the Pies at the MCG but they need one of Hawkins/Mooney to stand up as well as trav varcoe.

Carlton might be able to exploit Geelong with pace but they cant exploit the pies.

Hawks too many injuries.

WCE not gonna happen at the MCG, maybe next year.

geelong are no different to the others in the top 5. to beat coll in a final at the G they need something to go wrong with coll. otherwise coll win on the bit

 

[Gizza]

Essendon were above us in round 1 too.

Regardless, you'd have to thrash the Saints by a large amount to make up the % (provided we beat the Dogs)

% won't come into it as you guys have the draw. Also, your guys are currently being beaten by the Dogs. A team the Eagles put away by over 20 goals.

I think it would be a very interesting finals series if the Pies weren't there and the other teams made up the top 4. Unfortunately they are there and I can't really see any of the other 4 knocking them off come finals time. Geelong however have been the only team to show they they can possibly match them.

 

[Bozo]

West Coast beat us at our lowest ebb. Plenty went wrong that day. I won't go into the details but I don't think we are that far removed from Hawthorn, Geelong or the Eagles.

How the hell could Carlton be at their lowest ebb against WCE???? They had beaten Sydney the week before by 34 points with Kreuzer killing it and then beat Richmond a week later by 100+ points? Carlton put their best available team on the park at their home ground which has less in common with the MCG than Subiaco does. Or let me guess, in finals, everything goes Carlton's way and every player is 100% fit and that is why they are better than WCE?

Ratten's explanation for the loss was the most honest, Carlton tried to play too structured and precise when going forward - they need random bombs forward where there is hopefully a contest so that the crumbers can come into the game. The problem with this "no-responsibility-for-the-coach" gameplan is that when things aren't going well, all you can do is play even more randomly and rely on "hoping for the best" being an even more integral component of kicking goals. There is no real structural move that will change the situation into your favour other than moving defenders forward so that they will provide more of a contest in bringing the ball to the ground. Then you are left with Gibbs as the second tall defender and that is wet-your-pants stuff to watch.

Collingwood appear to be nigh on certainties to play in the GF but that is where the intangibles really come into play and any team can win it. It can be a blowout like 2007 because the better team wants it more, it can be like the drawn grand final last year where the "lesser" team wants it more and would have probably taken the spoils if it weren't left to too few. It could even be the result of a tactical move that the opposition coach has kept under his hat all year which MM has no answer to eg Leigh Matthews with Jason Cloke in 2003.

Carlton are 100% desire dependent as they have no real involvement from the coach on the matchday, Geelong are mature and will probably rely on their gameplan with minor tweaks so once again desire is a major factor in the result. Hawthorn are the team that could systematically break down Collingwood but injuries are the question mark as they need the personnel to really test the press. WCE are probably not experienced enough but a handful of quality players can go a long way to winning a flag as nearly shown last year.

I rate the chances for making the GF currently as :
Collingwood 85%
Geelong 70%
Hawthorn 20%
WCE 12.5%
Carlton 10%
St Kilda 2%
Gold Coast 0.5% (I am not sure that the AFL like them getting the wooden spoon.)

(Take 5% off the bottom four if Hawthorn change their medical department tomorrow).

Once there, I would rate Collingwood as 60% and then Geelong as 60% favourites if our 15% came up before the GF.

 

[festa1234]

collingwood are the only premiership contenders this year everyone else is just making up the numbers

 

[MightyHawks]

Collingwood and Geelong clearly look the favourites to make the GF.

So we'd be pretty confident that they'll both be there on Prelim Final day.

I don't feel that the Eagles are capable of winning a Prelim in Melbourne, but believe that both Carlton and Hawthorn are capable of winning a Prelim.

 

[forwardflanker]

I think with our injuries, whilst decimated at the moment, we could be on the up.

90% to regain Rioli, Sewell, Lewis, Lisle/Shoe, Bateman for our next game after the bye.

Stratton is apparently progressing very well and is a smokey to return before finals, which would be in insane boost.

Hale whilst not near as good as Rough is playing his forward/ruck role well, and has been kicking 2-3 per week. Hodge starting to dominate.

If we could get the above players back, Get stratts back into our defence with Gibson and Lisle (who has performed well), and manage to not loose any more, we will still be able to push anyone. IN saying that though we will probably loose 10 more to injury before then with the luck we have been having.

Right now its Collingwood,

Geelong

Carlton/Wc/Hawthorn

More excuses . There should be a sub forum solely for excuses made by Hawthorn supporters.

 

[10571z]

Collingwood and Geelong clearly look the favourites to make the GF.

So we'd be pretty confident that they'll both be there on Prelim Final day.

I don't feel that the Eagles are capable of winning a Prelim in Melbourne, but believe that both Carlton and Hawthorn are capable of winning a Prelim.

Carlton havent won a final in 9 years. Why are they capable. They havent beaten anyone who will make the prelim.

 

[Gavin Excell]

no such thing as a certainty. recent teams who have appeared as dominant at this stage of the year as coll are - adel 05 didn't even make the GF, geel 08 got rolled in the GF and stk 09 got rolled in the GF. pies are obviously the team to beat and well ahead of the field right now, but it only takes 1 bad day/bad luck with injs on prelim or GF day and of course they can be beaten.

any of geel carl or haw are capable of causing the upset if things go wrong for the pies. but that is what these other teams are relying on to win a flag this year, something going wrong for the pies. if it doesn't they just win and win easily

St kilda shouldn't be mentioned in this manner. Had a good season granted but fact is Geelong after flogging Collingwood in prelim final, entered grand final day 2009 a pronounced $1.50 favourite. St kilda were the outsider.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Collingwood and Geelong clearly look the favourites to make the GF.

So we'd be pretty confident that they'll both be there on Prelim Final day.

I don't feel that the Eagles are capable of winning a Prelim in Melbourne, but believe that both Carlton and Hawthorn are capable of winning a Prelim.

Thats pretty accurate.

Week one of finals, like it did last year, may determine the grand finalists.

Probable/possible week one could be:

Collingwood v West Coast/Hawthorn
Geelong v Carlton

 

[doingthangs]

carlton no chance, look a rabble against the bulldogs

 

[He_Beast]

Collingwood aren't certainties, but are about as close as you can get. The rest depends on matchups in the finals, I reckon.

 

[weagles_fan]

Thats pretty accurate.

Week one of finals, like it did last year, may determine the grand finalists.

Probable/possible week one could be:

Collingwood v West Coast/Hawthorn
Geelong v Carlton

After the result today I am almost 100% that WC will finish ahead of Carlton. Hawthorn probably have to beat Carlton to finish 3rd otherwise West Coast will get 3rd.

 

[Blue and Silver]

We were woeful today. Not contenders if we put in these performances

 

[Burzum]

Collingwood.

That's it.

 

[Gavin Excell]

After the result today I am almost 100% that WC will finish ahead of Carlton. Hawthorn probably have to beat Carlton to finish 3rd otherwise West Coast will get 3rd.

in which case, if cats can get back to winning, would be Geelong v West Coast in week one at the MCG. Dare say second spot would be beyond West Coast to guarantee the home final.

Our finals record v West Coast makes for interesting reading - 0-4 and all in Victoria

Don't know whether Collingwood would be thrilled about meeting Carlton week one. 100k crowd - no advantage for the team finishing first

 

[gbatman]

carlton essendon collingwood and geelong were the form teams of the start of the season...

WCE, Carlton, Collingwood and geelong were the form teams in the middle and now towards the end...

Collingwood and the WCE are the form teams.

It says nothing about who will be in form come finals.

 

[Magpie_Magic]

1. Collingwood
2. West Coast

 

[Forward Press]

1. Collingwood
2. West Coast

I wish

First goal is finals. Second goal is win a final. Third goal prelim, and so on.

Just making the finals in itself is a remarkable achievement, no sane Eagles fan is talking the 2011 premiership at this stage.

 

[MWPP]

1. Collingwood





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2. Geelong

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3/4. Hawthorn = Carlton

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5/6. West Coast = Sydney
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The Rest