Review R10: The Good, Bad and the Ugly vs. Collingwood

[1990crow]

Every
Single
Week

Maybe we are the only team that can't beat everyone.
Nicks records suggests as much.

 

[GreyCrow]

Again we talk about messaging and while its the safe way to talk about an opponent I wonder if there are different ways to send a more positive message/mindset

'' we really look forward to what WC will bring and we will take on that challenge 100% ''

It recognises the idea that the opposition arent training cones and that your mindset is all in on dominating them

'' they are a really good team '' is press speak but if it gets repeated internally - because you want to keep the players focused - it can bog you down if they do start fast

Accept the challenge ( and opportunity ) to beat up on a struggling team. Never ever say they are your level

 

[Cromulant]

umm huh?

They watch games through stats sheets on their laptops, when they say who the clear favourites are theres almost zero relevance to the game itself.

 

[jenny61_99]

soooo....

First five games: avg 120 points
Last five games: avg 77 points

Our scores from Defensive half have dropped by a third since R5

Our efficiency inside 50 has dropped 10% since R5

Our disposal chains to score % has dropped by about 15% since R5

Our ball movement was short kick dominant and we averaged

237 uncontested possessions with an average +29 differential to R5

Then we started playing the good old bombing game and we averaged

200 uncontested possessions with an average -8 differential since R5

I mean, the stats dont lie and thats before the eye test, which the numbers above just confirm. I could keep digging through stats to prove the point, but I dont think I need to. Consider also all those drop offs post round 5 include absolutely belting a hopeless Carlton.

Oh, one more - in the first half last week, Collingwood switched lanes on transition 13 times. We did it twice.

Now you can keep making your flaccid little argument at me if you like, but it'll just confirm what we all suspected of you anyway.

What is the difference from the first five to the last five?

 

[feenix67]

They watch games through stats sheets on their laptops, when they say who the clear favourites are theres almost zero relevance to the game itself.

Lies, damn lies and statistics, right? I don't necessarily disagree with you to a point, but in the context of my discussion with the rubbishman, it was perfectly relevant. Also, the stats certainly reinforce what we're seeing in terms of gameplan and scoring patterns etc. They show a distinct slowing down of our ball movement, which was the exact point I originally made.

So, yeah...

 

[feenix67]

What is the difference from the first five to the last five?

legit question?

We have returned to a contested game plan, we arent scoring as heavily and our scoring efficiency and general ball security has decreased, and we continue to have inconsistent outcomes. The argument is, and it's one I agree with, the lower the scoring, the longer you keep the opposition in the game. Our strength is our forward half and our ability to rebound off half back. Our repeat inside 50 count has dropped as well - moving the ball quickly keeps the oppo disorganised. Slow and predictable allows the oppo to regroup and counter. Our change in gameplan has nullified our strengths and made us more susceptible to oppo scores from turnover in their front half, because we have become slow and predictable on transition.

The counter argument of course is that lower scoring keeps us in the game longer too. Fair enough, except why do we have $2 million + a year invested in our Forward 50 (RT, Ranks and Rash).

I reckon I'd back us 90% of the time in an open, run and gun game. I reckon I'd back us about 40% in a close slog. Just my opinion.

 

[Dangarman]

Here’s something a bit more recent in terms of premiership teams , for mine collingwood is playing the best style of the 3 ( us , GC and them ) as they are hardest to score against but still punish off turnover

View attachment 2320712

Here's the image with some net score differential contour lines. We are in 3rd, ever so slightly behind GC, their circle closer hugging the 17 line by a pixel or two.

 

[Huang LoWel]

Michalanney interview this morning on West Coast:
"Theyre a good side who can beat anyone"

A smart kid who knows Nicks better than we do.....
It would be inappropriate to say on radio, "they're a good side who could easily beat us on the day"
The Richmond game last year should give West Coast plenty of confidence.
I have enough faith in Nicks that if there was a way to lose on the weekend, he'll find it.

 

[CrowBloke]

We really need a roll eyes emoji

Really? ...

 

[GreyCrow]

Really? ...

In the drop down box

 

[AFC979810]

I reckon I'd back us 90% of the time in an open, run and gun game. I reckon I'd back us about 40% in a close slog. Just my opinion.

This!!!!

We have the best forward line in the league. Take the game on. Take risks. Caution be damned.

Nobody can stop a forward line of TT, FOG, Walker, Rach, Rankine, Keays and ANB if we move the ball quickly.

 

[adelaidecrows]

This!!!!

We have the best forward line in the league. Take the game on. Take risks. Caution be damned.

Nobody can stop a forward line of TT, FOG, Walker, Rach, Rankine, Keays and ANB if we move the ball quickly.

The best teams are able to turn it into there ideal game. We have a coach who instead of playing his ideal game, decides to defend against the oppositions ideal game and counter attack a majority of the time.

 

[AFC979810]

Yeah look if we are judging it after this round this week it’s likely we rank #1

And of course we needed to adjust our game plan , we can’t keep conceding to teams like Essendon 100 + points , as the season gets deeper in winter and games become more defensive we’d lose far too many and definitely wouldn’t build a finals brand

There’s always a pendulum of balance , we likely a little bit defensive right here right now but that could change too

Nicks isn't smart enough to adjust our gameplan correctly.

Let's just go Neil Craig style. With the list we have play to our strengths and hope for some luck come September.

 

[NSolis]

Michalanney interview this morning on West Coast:
"Theyre a good side who can beat anyone"

I never understand people getting upset about this sort of thing. This is what every team says about everyone in every situation.

What's he meant to say? They are shit and we will smash them?

 

[AFC979810]

I never understand people getting upset about this sort of thing. This is what every team says about everyone in every situation.

What's he meant to say? They are shit and we will smash them?

Agree. Have zero idea why people get upset with non-inflammatory media comments.

 

[Cromulant]

I never understand people getting upset about this sort of thing. This is what every team says about everyone in every situation.

What's he meant to say? They are shit and we will smash them?

It's a weird thing to get hung up on for sure.

 

[George CantStandYa]

I think the criticism is fair, he should have said “We are a good chance of winning unless Nicks does something stupid again”

 

[Samcro24]

Michalanney interview this morning on West Coast:
"Theyre a good side who can beat anyone"

They’ve won 11 games in 3.5 seasons ffs.

 

[maxlilly]

legit question?

We have returned to a contested game plan, we arent scoring as heavily and our scoring efficiency and general ball security has decreased, and we continue to have inconsistent outcomes. The argument is, and it's one I agree with, the lower the scoring, the longer you keep the opposition in the game. Our strength is our forward half and our ability to rebound off half back. Our repeat inside 50 count has dropped as well - moving the ball quickly keeps the oppo disorganised. Slow and predictable allows the oppo to regroup and counter. Our change in gameplan has nullified our strengths and made us more susceptible to oppo scores from turnover in their front half, because we have become slow and predictable on transition.

The counter argument of course is that lower scoring keeps us in the game longer too. Fair enough, except why do we have $2 million + a year invested in our Forward 50 (RT, Ranks and Rash).

I reckon I'd back us 90% of the time in an open, run and gun game. I reckon I'd back us about 40% in a close slog. Just my opinion.

I think the most telling stat that you put up was the one about 'changing lanes'
We only did it twice compared to Pies 13 times

We have good marking targets around centre where we can expose other teams with Dawson, Curtin and Nankervis but we don't do it.

Going down the line exposes our weaknesses where if we don't mark the ball, our ground ball is so poor, we get caught on the rebound.

So we go away from our strengths and play a game style that exposes our weaknesses, it's just crazy coaching

 

[George CantStandYa]

I think the most telling stat that you put up was the one about 'changing lanes'
We only did it twice compared to Pies 13 times

We have good marking targets around centre where we can expose other teams with Dawson, Curtin and Nankervis but we don't do it.

Going down the line exposes our weaknesses where if we don't mark the ball, our ground ball is so poor, we get caught on the rebound.

So we go away from our strengths and play a game style that exposes our weaknesses, it's just crazy coaching

Spot on

 

[CrowBloke]

I think the most telling stat that you put up was the one about 'changing lanes'
We only did it twice compared to Pies 13 times

That info (from feenix67 ) about lane-changing exposes Nicks' innate conservatism and reluctance to change or show some flair.

Going down the line exposes our weaknesses where if we don't mark the ball, our ground ball is so poor, we get caught on the rebound.

Even worse, it's predictable. Oppo teams set up for it and if they mark the kick-out or the ball goes to ground we are either out-of-position on the turnover or outnumbered.

So we go away from our strengths and play a game style that exposes our weaknesses, it's just crazy coaching

I get what you mean ie not literally 'crazy', just ineffective.
Nicks has always Coached not-to-lose
or
when he thinks we are going to lose, then don't lose by too much.
It's counter-productive because it makes our players reactive ie what do we do after the oppo gets the ball (which is a passive wait-and-see approach), rather than proactive ie what can we do to get and keep the ball and create fast transition to give our forwards best opportunities?

 

[davos44]

This information is readily available if you care to look.

View attachment 2320918

I meant time left on play clock counting down from 20 mins, that's real time as in: 9 minutes into the last quarter.

 

[feenix67]

I meant time left on play clock counting down from 20 mins, that's real time as in: 9 minutes into the last quarter.

As I said, the information is readily available if you care to look

 

[davos44]

You said it was sound strategy, now you’re saying you didn’t agree with it.

Yep. That's is exactly what I wrote, word for word. No grey area.

 

[George CantStandYa]

Yep. That's is exactly what I wrote, word for word. No grey area.

And more than once