Preview Rd 8 Geelong v Melbourne Sat May 4th 730pm @ MCG

[CatToTheFuture]

Darwin of all games, why? Ball is slipperier than a 'wet bar of soap', if not this week against Melbourne then definitely against Port Adelaide. If Chris and MC don't play Shannon Neale in either of these two games then they are becoming to Tommy Hawkins bias and prejudice, not the way to go. We also badly need games into Shannon Neale, even if it means we play him and Tommy in same game or otherwise just rest Big Tom for a game. But please play him sooner rather than later, as at the very least we can find out where we are at with Shannon regards heading towards latter part of season and who knows?......... maybe a final game or two if he comes good.

Just so we don't throw a 35 year old blue chip asset into 30 degree heat humid conditions. You cook him it could end his career

 

[Gazza Greatness]

Just so we don't throw a 35 year old blue chip asset into 30 degree heat humid conditions. You cook him it could end his career

Whether you agree or not Tommy generally likes conditions like this moreso than most big forwards as he uses his mountain of a body as a true pro but perhaps this year not so. Regardless of that fact, I'd still like to see Shannon Neale be played this week or next against quality opposition to see what he can produce, I can only see that benefitting the side either way into future.

 

[Hinkley29]

The squiggle currently have Melbourne winning 77-72. From memory it had Geelong beating Carlton and Brisbane.

Squiggle 2024

live.squiggle.com.au

Squiggle clearly hasn’t been watching the games.

Our style of play should work very well against Melbourne’s.

 

[Play it Sam]

Squiggle clearly hasn’t been watching the games.

Our style of play should work very well against Melbourne’s.

Couldn't post what Mister Squiggle really drew for Miss Jane, upside down, so........

 

[Hamingja]

Squiggle clearly hasn’t been watching the games.

Our style of play should work very well against Melbourne’s.

Getting smashed in the ruck and centre clearances not a great formula against the Dees as per 21 prelim. Given their strengths their potential still worries me more than teams like the Swans and the Pies who are never going to blow us away in those areas.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Thanks for that Debbie Downer

Just my opinion mate. Don’t like it, then ignore it.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

The squiggle currently have Melbourne winning 77-72. From memory it had Geelong beating Carlton and Brisbane.

Squiggle 2024

live.squiggle.com.au

Pretty sure it had us losing to Brisbane.
It’s all over the shop, never thought much of it.

I much prefer the “premiership window” they have on one of the footy shows.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I'm not sure I agree with that logic, though I do see where you're coming from.

If Weitering would take Cameron if Neale played, then surely he takes Cameron anyway even if Hawkins plays, because Cameron is currently a far more dangerous forward than Hawkins.

If I were an opposition coach and you offered me taking Cameron out of the game vs taking Hawkins out of the game, it's the guy who can kick five and have 20+ that I'm shutting down.

The big guys like Weitering don't play on Cameron at the moment, because he just wears them out. He's like a version of Buddy Franklin who can mark.

Yep.

Weitering is a glacier at the best of times, and he's carrying a dodgy cork at the moment (hence the heavy strapping)

He would not have taken Jezza regardless of whether Hawkins plays or not.

You don't play a guy who can hardly move on one of the best runners in the game.

Young may be a bog average footballer, but he's much better suited to playing on a guy like Cameron, hence why they've continued to do it despite him getting smashed everytime.

 

[Hinkley29]

Getting smashed in the ruck and centre clearances not a great formula against the Dees as per 21 prelim. Given their strengths their potential still worries me more than teams like the Swans and the Pies who are never going to blow us away in those areas.

Nope.

How often do team score directly from a centre clearance? It is way less than you would think.

We are not overly troubled by strong clearance teams, unless they are the cleanest clearances. Any hack kick clearance plays right into our hands because they are always kicking to our extra man behind the ball, this year we have added the ability to ruthlessly punish teams on the counter attack after this extra man wins the turnover.

We did it to Brisbane multiple times, also the bulldogs, crows and carlton.

It is the teams that play deliberate, possession football that will potentially trouble us. I am looking at Sydney, GWS, Freo.

 

[iameviljez]

Nope.

How often do team score directly from a centre clearance? It is way less than you would think.

But that does negate the clearances that lead to, say, an inside 50, and after a contest or three, a goal.

Generally speaking, I believe that winning clearances correlates to winning the game roughly 60% of the time. But don't quote me, I don't remember exactly.

 

[Finknottle]

Trend of cats having insulting odds continue:

Cats currently $1.81 (started at $1.85)
Dees $2.04

We should be $1.40-$1.50

It's being played at the MCG. Surely home ground advantage feeds into Melbourne's odds.
On Footy Classified, Craig Hutchison (who is a Geelong supporter) tipped Melbourne to win this one. I kind of like it when Geelong goes in as the underdog, it makes winning even better.

 

[iameviljez]

Trend of cats having insulting odds continue:

Cats currently $1.81 (started at $1.85)
Dees $2.04

We should be $1.40-$1.50

Eh, markets are set by the money, not by the agencies as such. You want to see more 'accurate' odds as such, drop a cool mil or two

 

[Hinkley29]

But that does negate the clearances that lead to, say, an inside 50, and after a contest or three, a goal.

Generally speaking, I believe that winning clearances correlates to winning the game roughly 60% of the time. But don't quote me, I don't remember exactly.

It would be the case against most teams.

But we are playing in such a unique way that the stats don’t apply. We almost want the other team to win the clearance because if they do and we turn it over from the kick the whole field opens up and we are off to the races. This is especially true if the clearance has started on one wing (eg from a boundary throw in), because the clearance drags so many players to one side of the field, the other side of the field is wide open and we are gone.

it is why Holmes playing half back makes so much sense, if we turn the ball over in d50, we look to get the ball in the hands of Holmes to move the ball as quickly as possible to the open side of the field and then go go go. Try and link up with Cameron, Stengle, miers, close, o Henry who are really quick but also great decision makers and ball users. Once we do it we have the other team at our mercy.

The other way to do it (ie. the non-Holmes options) is to get the ball in the hands of our elite ball users in d50 then switch the play straight away and push forward to the link up players mentioned above. Win the turnover, get the ball in the hands of Stewart, Zuthrie, Duncan have them hit one 40-50m switch kick and then we are gone.

 

[Hinkley29]

Eh, markets are set by the money, not by the agencies as such. You want to see more 'accurate' odds as such, drop a cool mil or two

They aren’t set by the money, they are set to encourage as much betting action as possible.

Betting on Geelong is boring, so they are jacking the odds to encourage more action.

 

[Hinkley29]

It's being played at the MCG. Surely home ground advantage feeds into Melbourne's odds.
On Footy Classified, Craig Hutchison (who is a Geelong supporter) tipped Melbourne to win this one. I kind of like it when Geelong goes in as the underdog, it makes winning even better.

The way we are playing at the moment, the mcg suits us better than KP. The wider wings give us way more space to exploit the opposition off d50 turnovers.

I am far more concerned about playing a good team at KP (ie. gws in 4 weeks) than I am about playing a decent Melbourne team at the mcg.

We might lose on Saturday if we just have an off night, but it won’t be because of the mcg home ground factor.

 

[_Game_]

Surely we see Hardie one of these weeks? Scott does the press conference last week naming him as one of those players who is just waiting for a spot to open up, and now Danger goes down and the spot opens... Right?

 

[Mr Meow]

Eh, markets are set by the money, not by the agencies as such. You want to see more 'accurate' odds as such, drop a cool mil or two

Could you put that one on for me? I just need to visit my bank

 

[Finknottle]

They aren’t set by the money, they are set to encourage as much betting action as possible.

Betting on Geelong is boring, so they are jacking the odds to encourage more action.

Generally I would have thought the betting drives the odds. The betting agency wouldn't want to go out on a limb to artificially promote one bet over another. However the agency does set the odds to help it get a profit.
Below is simplistic scenario based on the same number of $1 bets coming in for each team. The Agency makes a profit more often than not but not always.

 

[Mr Meow]

It would be the case against most teams.

But we are playing in such a unique way that the stats don’t apply. We almost want the other team to win the clearance because if they do and we turn it over from the kick the whole field opens up and we are off to the races. This is especially true if the clearance has started on one wing (eg from a boundary throw in), because the clearance drags so many players to one side of the field, the other side of the field is wide open and we are gone.

it is why Holmes playing half back makes so much sense, if we turn the ball over in d50, we look to get the ball in the hands of Holmes to move the ball as quickly as possible to the open side of the field and then go go go. Try and link up with Cameron, Stengle, miers, close, o Henry who are really quick but also great decision makers and ball users. Once we do it we have the other team at our mercy.

The other way to do it (ie. the non-Holmes options) is to get the ball in the hands of our elite ball users in d50 then switch the play straight away and push forward to the link up players mentioned above. Win the turnover, get the ball in the hands of Stewart, Zuthrie, Duncan have them hit one 40-50m switch kick and then we are gone.

Holmes and Duncan to half back, with Miers/Cameron/Dempsey pushing up deep as pseudo wingmen (even Close and Stengle have rolled the dice on this move more often) has been a masterclass in coaching to our personnel and their strengths.

Cameron has played dumb and said Scott just lets him do what he wants and it's all a bit random with players running on improv. Maybe there's a degree of truth in that but I think there was an element of masking tactics too.

 

[stac]

Melbourne’s mids aside from Gawn who is absolutely smashing it are not in the best of form at the moment so we just need to nullify max as best we can

I would bring in Conway and play Stanley as sub
Dees the only team you would contemplate such an approach but Gawn is a unique player

I believe we could cover all positions should we get an injury

Tell Conway go hard and then swap to Stanley for the second half unless Conway going ok then swap at 3/4 time

 

[CatToTheFuture]

It's being played at the MCG. Surely home ground advantage feeds into Melbourne's odds.
On Footy Classified, Craig Hutchison (who is a Geelong supporter) tipped Melbourne to win this one. I kind of like it when Geelong goes in as the underdog, it makes winning even better.

Hutchy is a Geelong fan ?

 

[Munich]

Hutchy is a Geelong fan ?

I didn't know that either. Thought he hated us

 

[Play it Sam]

Hutchy is a Geelong fan ?

Yep and so is John Anderson. (Hun Journo)
You'd never know it though, not like Hamish swanning around the members (before he moved overseas).

 

[Kobe Gryant]

It's being played at the MCG. Surely home ground advantage feeds into Melbourne's odds.
On Footy Classified, Craig Hutchison (who is a Geelong supporter) tipped Melbourne to win this one. I kind of like it when Geelong goes in as the underdog, it makes winning even better.

Hutchy is as much of a Geelong supporter as Tom Brady is a Carlton one, simply because they gave him a guernsey a couple months back.

He's a business man above all else, his allegiances will shift to whoever is helping him at the time, or are just nonexistent all together.

I highly doubt us winning or losing gives him any joy or pain whatsoever.

 

[feelinfeline]

Why not have both? We are hard task masters on Stanley, and rightly so given inconsistency. It's not an easy job, I don't mind his work as a disruptive tall around the ground. As for last week, Pittonett has been really firing this year and was always going to be a problem. As Scott says, sometimes it's just beaten by a better player.
Think we just live in hope until Conway can work up.

Wow, so Pittonet is actually an OK player? From what I’ve been reading on here, you’d swear he was completely hopeless and that to be beaten by him is the most shameful thing that could happen to you.