Preview Rd 1 Geelong V StKilda Sat 16th Mar 2024 730pm @ GMHBA

[CHAWKTS]

It is an objectively old average age. Nobody disputes that. But it’s not much different to what we have fielded recently. The 2022 flag side was older - 28yr 7mths.

The key difference now, if there is one, is that it is a more balanced age list profile with much higher quality bottom age talent than we have had for a decade.

I agree…although my nervousness is that we do have a hollow “mid age” which does expose us.

Can we really expect the below 24 year olds (and I am so excited about every one of them that is lining up tomorrow) to be ready to drive to a premiership when “conventional wisdom” is that it is that 25-29yo age group that drives peak performance?

It might be that Mannagh becomes inspired selection if he can become a key cog in that age group but him/miers/close who are key in that age group are forwards and zuthri/J Henry/MOC are backman…all ok but we don’t have that core age group in the engine room.

I am worried that we might have to “mind the gap” until our higher quality bottom age talent enter peak age bracket - and by then of course we lose the high quality over 30s we have now.

I think tomorrow might tell us a lot - if we have half of our best 10 being that young age group. A practise match I know but last week I reckon the top 5 for us on the ground were Holmes, Stewart, Dempsey, Stengle and maybe Bruhn… if that kind of mix carries over to the real season then I will get a little more confidence

 

[moond0g]

It is an objectively old average age. Nobody disputes that. But it’s not much different to what we have fielded recently. The 2022 flag side was older - 28yr 7mths.

The key difference now, if there is one, is that it is a more balanced age list profile with much higher quality bottom age talent than we have had for a decade.

FWIW i think you're both right to a degree; you can interpret things in different ways. But we do have a lot of >30yo players, whichever way you look at it.

And while we have some good young players, we're still a bit light on in players in the 24-29 age range. Players who should be well established, high quality AFL players but also have 5+ years of football ahead of them. More to the point, the players we do have in that age are generally role players rather than top end talent (Kolo, Bews, O'Conner, Mannagh, Parfitt, Zuthrie).

Our midfield is a good example where we have either >30yo players (Stanley, Danger, Guthrie, Blicavs) or <23yo players (Holmes, Bruhn, Clark, Conway), and the younger group are all talented, but not A grade performers yet. Atkins is probably the only midfielder in that mid age group (maybe Bowes, but he hasn't actually played as a midfielder, yet), but again he's not in the same class as top end midfielders from other clubs.

 

[numbwombat]

I agree…although my nervousness is that we do have a hollow “mid age” which does expose us.

Can we really expect the below 24 year olds (and I am so excited about every one of them that is lining up tomorrow) to be ready to drive to a premiership when “conventional wisdom” is that it is that 25-29yo age group that drives peak performance?

It might be that Mannagh becomes inspired selection if he can become a key cog in that age group but him/miers/close who are key in that age group are forwards and zuthri/J Henry/MOC are backman…all ok but we don’t have that core age group in the engine room.

I am worried that we might have to “mind the gap” until our higher quality bottom age talent enter peak age bracket - and by then of course we lose the high quality over 30s we have now.

I think tomorrow might tell us a lot - if we have half of our best 10 being that young age group. A practise match I know but last week I reckon the top 5 for us on the ground were Holmes, Stewart, Dempsey, Stengle and maybe Bruhn… if that kind of mix carries over to the real season then I will get a little more confidence

Yeah, the list posted had a fair few (minor) mistakes in ages but when Cameron turns 31 in a few weeks we will have I think 4 of this week’s best 23 players left between 26-30, and none of them IMO absolute locks longterm - Atkins, Kolo, O’Connor and Mannagh. Need a few of the younger 30+ guys to have long careers.

 

[Willo_]

does anyone think danger plays more forward line time now that hes getting a bit long in the tooth?

Personally I would hope not, he is too ball hungry and would throw the forward line right out of whack IMO.

It can be a good pinch hit type role situation depending, but he doesn't have the natural smarts and creativity of Jnr who could go back there out of the middle and be highly effective

 

[catempire]

I agree…although my nervousness is that we do have a hollow “mid age” which does expose us.

Can we really expect the below 24 year olds (and I am so excited about every one of them that is lining up tomorrow) to be ready to drive to a premiership when “conventional wisdom” is that it is that 25-29yo age group that drives peak performance?

It might be that Mannagh becomes inspired selection if he can become a key cog in that age group but him/miers/close who are key in that age group are forwards and zuthri/J Henry/MOC are backman…all ok but we don’t have that core age group in the engine room.

I am worried that we might have to “mind the gap” until our higher quality bottom age talent enter peak age bracket - and by then of course we lose the high quality over 30s we have now.

I think tomorrow might tell us a lot - if we have half of our best 10 being that young age group. A practise match I know but last week I reckon the top 5 for us on the ground were Holmes, Stewart, Dempsey, Stengle and maybe Bruhn… if that kind of mix carries over to the real season then I will get a little more confidence

Totally agree. I wrote at length about this once.

List Mgmt. - Geelong’s looming list profile crisis (it’s not what you think)

Ask the average Joe and even some thoughtful in-the-know Geelong followers what the biggest challenge is for Geelong’s list into the future and you’ll get a fairly consistent answer along the lines that it’s how we deal with a very old list. It’s true that, on average, Geelong has a fairly old...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[catempire]

FWIW i think you're both right to a degree; you can interpret things in different ways. But we do have a lot of >30yo players, whichever way you look at it.

And while we have some good young players, we're still a bit light on in players in the 24-29 age range. Players who should be well established, high quality AFL players but also have 5+ years of football ahead of them. More to the point, the players we do have in that age are generally role players rather than top end talent (Kolo, Bews, O'Conner, Mannagh, Parfitt, Zuthrie).

Our midfield is a good example where we have either >30yo players (Stanley, Danger, Guthrie, Blicavs) or <23yo players (Holmes, Bruhn, Clark, Conway), and the younger group are all talented, but not A grade performers yet. Atkins is probably the only midfielder in that mid age group (maybe Bowes, but he hasn't actually played as a midfielder, yet), but again he's not in the same class as top end midfielders from other clubs.

Yes we do have a lot of 30+ players but my point is we have consistently had that for many years.

@Lana’s point seems to be what matters now is we are no good. Well, let’s see how we go this year before concluding that shall we? I recall many writing us off after the year we had in 2015 too.

 

[God Mode]

We need the ones who have just entered that 25-29 year old bracket to have career best seasons.

Stengle, Miers, J.Henry, Zuthrie, Bowes (if he can shake injury issues), O'Connor and Atkins. Then if Kolo can roll the clock back to 2022 and Mannagh comes in to instantly add value, it could be a solid group. You can argue no superstars but Stengle, Miers and J.Henry at their absolute best have AA squad potential. If Zuthrie can take the next step, he's a good back flanker. And what we need are for some of these types to be able to push between the arcs quite a lot which is where we struggled in 2023.

That could Miers or Zuthrie on the wing sometimes, Bowes as a full time midfielder or Stengle/Mannagh giving us some classy midfield minutes.

The sweet spot would be recruiting a couple of 24-28 year olds as well.

It's for this reason I'm focusing on the development of our younger players this season. I think with the imminent retirement of 5-6 of our older brigade this off-season we have a chance to recruit strongly in that 24-28 bracket and rebalance the list. If we do that, I think we contend next year.

 

[moond0g]

Yes we do have a lot of 30+ players but my point is we have consistently had that for many years.

@Lana’s point seems to be what matters now is we are no good. Well, let’s see how we go this year before concluding that shall we? I recall many writing us off after the year we had in 2015 too.

Fair call. But I think they made exactly that point earlier in the thread, below.

Saying we have an old list isn't inherently a criticism, it's a statement of fact. Whether that's a good or bad thing is up for debate, and it's even possible that having an old list is both good and bad, depending on circumstance. Perhaps in 2016-2022 was the right thing, but having an old list in 2023-2025 will be the wrong thing, time will tell.

I think our performance dictates if we are turning over our list appropriately. If we make finals then we made the right decision to not cut too heavily (gotta to be in it to win it), but if we don't, especially if we don't get close then we should have cut further get slightly better picks feed a couple of extra players a seasons worth of games etc. We won't know if we did it right until the end. If we get it wrong it doesn't necessary mean we made bad decisions with the information at the time. For what ever it is worth I think it is very line ball. We look great everywhere but the midfield which looks atrocious on paper. Now that we are here it is up to the MC to find a way around it.

 

[catempire]

Fair call. But I think they made exactly that point earlier in the thread, below.

Saying we have an old list isn't inherently a criticism, it's a statement of fact. Whether that's a good or bad thing is up for debate, and it's even possible that having an old list is both good and bad, depending on circumstance. Perhaps in 2016-2022 was the right thing, but having an old list in 2023-2025 will be the wrong thing, time will tell.

Perhaps we are in furious agreement. I just don’t see it as particularly notable if nothing has changed.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Incredibly happy all the predictiona of clark as sub are wrong. He needs to be b22 and playing regular games.

The dissappintmemt for me is the stalling developmemt of mullin and knevitt. Both would have been huge

 

[numbwombat]

Perhaps we are in furious agreement. I just don’t see it as particularly notable if nothing has changed.

Two things have changed I think.

We continue to have a lot of 30+ players but the player “gap” is now in the prime years. 4 years ago we had a gap in players in their early 20s, but very strong prime age and 30+ groups.

The other change is that for the first time in 15+ years we don’t have any proven elite inside mids or KPFs under 30. Several promising mids but none at this stage of their development close to AA (Holmes maybe as a wing but his 2023 was nowhere near AA on ball).

 

[numbwombat]

Incredibly happy all the predictiona of clark as sub are wrong. He needs to be b22 and playing regular games.

The dissappintmemt for me is the stalling developmemt of mullin and knevitt. Both would have been huge

Mullin and Knevitt are fine IMO. Mullin looks exciting but is way too raw, only got games through injury last year.

Knevitt looked good last year, is just still developing. No shame in Clark, Dempsey and Mannagh going past him, they all have big potential.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Mullin and Knevitt are fine IMO. Mullin looks exciting but is way too raw, only got games through injury last year.

Knevitt looked good last year, is just still developing. No shame in Clark, Dempsey and Mannagh going past him, they all have big potential.

Knevitt has looked poor in his pre season game and has not been selected... Really hope he finds form and gets back into our 22

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Scotty in the presser saying Bowes will play next week, they're being cautious after a corkie he got.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Perhaps we are in furious agreement. I just don’t see it as particularly notable if nothing has changed.

With how reactionary we are, if by Monday Max Holmes is leading the Brownlow, Jhye Clark has a rising star nomination under his belt, and SDK & Bruhn have taken the leap and look like the next Taylor & Selwood, we'll be seeing very different coverage, both from ourselves in here and the media.

May as well throw in that Mannagh looks like the recruit of the year to top it all off.

I guess my point is it's never as good as it seems, and never as bad as it seems, especially when we're projecting long term like we are.

Our list could be younger, sure...but we've traversed these waters a dozen times before now, and we've done it with considerably less bottom age talent coming through than we have now.

Does that guarantee this rebirth is going to work yet again? No, it doesn't....but it should add a grain of salt to this whole argument.

If we've done it before numerous times under harder circumstances, then I'm inclined to believe it'll work this time.

I understand some in this thread aren't wired that way, but I prefer to enjoy my footy team rather than predict impending doom. It's just a game after all.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Scotty in the presser saying Bowes will play within the next 3 years, they're being ultra cautious after a corkie he got.

Classic

 

[small 4wards]

Don't know why this was the moment it sunk in but when Chris said Bowes was playing next week, I've realised footy is properly back, a cats game each weekend. God I *n love this sport

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Bowes is out?? Bugger

 

[CHAWKTS]

Incredibly happy all the predictiona of clark as sub are wrong. He needs to be b22 and playing regular games.

The dissappintmemt for me is the stalling developmemt of mullin and knevitt. Both would have been huge

Unless something changes Mannagh will be sub

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Unless something changes Mannagh will be sub

Bowes out means he should play

 

[Schmuck]

Still a lot of tickets available nearly 24 hours out from game time, the clubs hopefully chances of a sell out looks like no chance.

Yet people will still complain how they can’t get a seat in Geelong.

 

[catempire]

Two things have changed I think.

We continue to have a lot of 30+ players but the player “gap” is now in the prime years. 4 years ago we had a gap in players in their early 20s, but very strong prime age and 30+ groups.

The other change is that for the first time in 15+ years we don’t have any proven elite inside mids or KPFs under 30. Several promising mids but none at this stage of their development close to AA (Holmes maybe as a wing but his 2023 was nowhere near AA on ball).

Continuing to have a lot of 30+ year olds is not a change.

Agree the gap is now in prime years.

No proven elite mids/KPFs isn’t new either. The last time we had either would have been when Joel and Hawk were that young.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Hear him call the WNBL and can't believe we don't hear him more from the AFL.
Such a quality caller.

I was thinking this last night.
The commentary team was so bad last night I put it on mute.
It’s getting worse every year.

 

[calder_daddy]

Still a lot of tickets available nearly 24 hours out from game time, the clubs hopefully chances of a sell out looks like no chance.

Yet people will still complain how they can’t get a seat in Geelong.

Just had a Quick Look and the cheapest seats are $60
Not many people go alone so they would be up for a minimum $120
Plus card charges $130
Spend roughly $50 on food and drinks, I really don’t blame people

It is becoming unaffordable

 

[calder_daddy]

Listening to SEN before and there’s a new option called SEN SYNC

You can click on that and it sinks to your Kayo, no idea how it works but finally another option