Preview Rd 1 Geelong V StKilda Sat 16th Mar 2024 730pm @ GMHBA

[cats_09]

So why has Ticketmaster changed the look of their digital passes. Was there a problem with using screenshots?

The digital tickets on the App have a barcode & it’s a live barcode that updates/changes on a regular basis

When downloading the ticket to your phones Wallet - Apple or Google, it becomes an NFI ticket & works the same as when tapping a digital card when making a payment, your Myki card etc

One of the reasons for removing the screenshot options would be to counter scalpers - an issue that’s arisen in the past is people selling multiple copies of a single ticket & then it becomes who ever gets into the venue first is the lucky one, while the others have paid for a ticket they can’t use. Removing the use of screenshots of a tickets QR or barcode, would be designed to help prevent that form of scalping from being an easy option

 

[Lana]

Some aspects that may float your boat

Games played by age you can see the commitment we've had to the 2016 draft carrying through. Sparklines added so you can track the lumps of experience travelling through time as you go down by rows

View attachment 1928863

Same data set but comparison of games played in 2023 and the most comparable year there I could find 2016

View attachment 1928866

Also, same data set again but stacked by age cohort in year of first draft eligibility. You can see that the 2020 draft cohort has the 3rd biggest investment of games under Scott to the same age. You can also see the drafts we effectively skip.

View attachment 1928871


And lastly, and more soberly, a comparison against various "randomly selected" historic sides. You can see the sides that have hit the wall are nothing like us for experience in the 25-30 cohort. We are much, much thinner

View attachment 1928873

Great effort

That first graph, the one (that I asked for) is too granular (sorry) but following the diagonals shows the effect of dud drafts, you can see the shifting of our older players being based around 30 year old in the early 2010 to it being around 32 last year. Its funny at the time in 2011 was the oldest winning team up until that point, demographically if only we were that too old too slow

In the 2nd graph, I wonder that cohort of 24 year old is pumped up by mature aged recruits with a possibility of faster development with the trade off of lower peaks (I know that Stengle is one of them) especially the loss of the flanker to inside mid pipeline.

3rd graph, there isn't much competition for 2nd place. Other than 2016 we really struggled to get two wins at the draft in a year. Injury permitting, 2020 is only a single year behind 2016. But we'd want a 1999 - 2001 style grouping. The clubs willingness to grab a few mature aged options to flesh out the size of the group. We just need them to get selected at AFL level.

Great effort, that last graph shows what I'm worried about very clearly. The current trend is that being old is a side effect of being good. Collingwood last year were almost as old as we were in 2022. But it might just mean that teams windows are shorter.

 

[winty]

Difference in the side for tomorrow night compared to last time we played the Saints:

In: Blicavs Stanley J.Henry Clark Mannagh Dempsey
Out: Bews Bowes Neale Parfitt Ratugolea Smith

Free kick tally in the game last year was 20-5 St. Kilda's way too.

 

[feelinfeline]

He was just a bit of a non event in the practice games. I know we don't judge everything off praccys but he isn't a cemented player who can afford to coast. The likes of Clark, Dempsey, mannagh, Neale or fought for a game and knevitt...just didn't show much.
It's disappointing because he was so good in that doggies game last year and never should've been dropped. Hopefully he fires in the VFL and forces himself back in.

A bit harsh. He only played in one practice game - the first one, against Carlton. I couldn't watch it live and didn't bother watching the replay because it sounded horrendous. Maybe he was particularly bad that day, but it sounded like most players were a bit rusty (and hardly high intensity).

All the other players you mentioned played in the main preseason game against Essendon.

I agree that he lost some confidence after being dropped last year and perhaps hasn't got it back yet.

 

[Cattery]

Any word on Bews being injured, have to think if Mullin is picked ahead of him it doesn't look good for his chances.

 

[Lana]

Difference in the side for tomorrow night compared to last time we played the Saints:

In: Blicavs Stanley J.Henry Clark Mannagh Dempsey
Out: Bews Bowes Neale Parfitt Ratugolea Smith

Free kick tally in the game last year was 20-5 St. Kilda's way too.

I like the the look of that

 

[cats_09]

Any word on Bews being injured, have to think if Mullin is picked ahead of him it doesn't look good for his chances.

Bews is playing VFL - just not currently in the form they’d like to see him in for senior selection

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Great effort

That first graph, the one (that I asked for) is too granular (sorry) but following the diagonals shows the effect of dud drafts, you can see the shifting of our older players being based around 30 year old in the early 2010 to it being around 32 last year. Its funny at the time in 2011 was the oldest winning team up until that point, demographically if only we were that too old too slow

In the 2nd graph, I wonder that cohort of 24 year old is pumped up by mature aged recruits with a possibility of faster development with the trade off of lower peaks (I know that Stengle is one of them) especially the loss of the flanker to inside mid pipeline.

3rd graph, there isn't much competition for 2nd place. Other than 2016 we really struggled to get two wins at the draft in a year. Injury permitting, 2020 is only a single year behind 2016. But we'd want a 1999 - 2001 style grouping. The clubs willingness to grab a few mature aged options to flesh out the size of the group. We just need them to get selected at AFL level.

Great effort, that last graph shows what I'm worried about very clearly. The current trend is that being old is a side effect of being good. Collingwood last year were almost as old as we were in 2022. But it might just mean that teams windows are shorter.

Cheers, yeah agree too granular but bucketing the data would have involved more thinking than I was going to give it.

I think one thing about the investment in the 2020-2023 drafts is I think the investment level is going to trend up substantially regardless of whether that is good or bad. 3+ names consistently from the 2020, 2+ from 2021 once Conway is on next year, 1+ from 2022. That's 6 players mirroring what we got from 2016.

It's also why I kind of don't like the idea of drafting one first rounder a year as a kid you can be reasonably certain in plus a 50/50 second rounder and a bunch of speculative types. It doesn't create any momentum, there's no rising tide that lifts all boats. You just get better at the same speed you get worse.

You'd be better off bolstering the 2016 cohort with someone maybe marginally older, like erm, Clayton Oliver? Or bolster the 2019-2021 drafts with a player marginally older, like erm, Bailey Smith?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Difference in the side for tomorrow night compared to last time we played the Saints:

In: Blicavs Stanley J.Henry Clark Mannagh Dempsey
Out: Bews Bowes Neale Parfitt Ratugolea Smith

Free kick tally in the game last year was 20-5 St. Kilda's way too.

Holy Jesus that was a bad outing for us. I had memory holed that s*

 

[Footy Smarts]

View attachment 1928873

There's no doubt on demographics our list looks ugly. There is one thing that can defeat demographics though and that's talent.

On the basis of demographics we should've been nowhere near the 2022 premiership. The real question is whether our younger players can be developed into similar quality players to Hawkins, Duncan, Guthrie, Dangerfield, Blicavs, etc. Which sounds absurd but nobody expected those guys to replace our prior group either.

Look at North 2016. Age was one reason they feel off the cliff but talent was a bigger one. Look at the younger to mid age players getting regular games in that team.

Ziebell, Cunnington, Macmillan, Atley, Dumont, Mullet, McKenzie, Wood, McDonald, Jacobs, Brown, Anderson.

Cunnington and McDonald had good careers. Ziebell, Brown, Atley and Anderson showed a bit but fell off a cliff massively. Wood weirdly discovered his talent last year. The rest were flat out spuds which is why the team was never that good despite the excellent mature players.

If Close, Stengle, Henry x2, Zuthrie, Holmes, etc, etc end up like that group we'll be appalling in a couple of years. I'm confident they won't though.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

There's no doubt on demographics our list looks ugly. There is one thing that can defeat demographics though and that's talent.

On the basis of demographics we should've been nowhere near the 2022 premiership. The real question is whether our younger players can be developed into similar quality players to Hawkins, Duncan, Guthrie, Dangerfield, Blicavs, etc. Which sounds absurd but nobody expected those guys to replace our prior group either.

Look at North 2016. Age was one reason they feel off the cliff but talent was a bigger one. Look at the younger to mid age players getting regular games in that team.

Ziebell, Cunnington, Macmillan, Atley, Dumont, Mullet, McKenzie, Wood, McDonald, Jacobs, Brown, Anderson.

Cunnington and McDonald had good careers. Ziebell, Brown, Atley and Anderson showed a bit but fell off a cliff massively. Wood weirdly discovered his talent last year. The rest were flat out spuds which is why the team was never that good despite the excellent mature players.

If Close, Stengle, Henry x2, Zuthrie, Holmes, etc, etc end up like that group we'll be appalling in a couple of years. I'm confident they won't though.

You may notice in my last graph of the teams "about to hit the wall" was Collingwood 2020. A team that had a mass exodus, cap issues, notion 4 finish, sacked their coach and won a premiership in that order.

Our problems are a bit unique, but we have strengths to work with too

 

[Cattery]

Bews is playing VFL - just not currently in the form they’d like to see him in for senior selection

Thanks for that info, was hoping after a poor 2023 he could bounce back this year, but if he's behind Mullin in the pecking order it doesn't appear as if he has.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Something relevant about our game tomorrow here. Saints arguably have a ruck and contested ball winning advantage on us tomorrow. Pies just got smashed while winning hit outs, clearances, centre clearances, and contested possessions.

 

[Interdimensional Bigfoot]

I'm puzzled how Knevitt is suddenly now a 'second-tier guy'. I don't remember him being talked about that way last season.

Has he had a bad preseason? Or have others had much better ones? He didn't even seem to get a look-in in the AFL preseason games.

Mystifying, I've got to say.

I would hope he'd play at least 10 games this year or he may look elsewhere next year, with some justification. He's contracted for next year, but that wouldn't stop him asking.

Anyway, presumably with injuries he'll get a chance at some point, so hopefully he grabs it.

I don't know what anyone saw in him to begin with but only ever saw him play AFL, doesn't seem overly quick or strong, took a few decent grabs but nothing that was super exciting. Same as Dempsey can't for the life of me see "it". I hope I'm wrong and often am so would love to be proved wrong but can only judge based on what I've seen. You guys weren't wrong about Conway so maybe Dempsey has yet to flick that switch.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Any word on Bews being injured, have to think if Mullin is picked ahead of him it doesn't look good for his chances.

Hes playing a vfl practice match tomorrow hes not injured.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I don't know what anyone saw in him to begin with but only ever saw him play AFL, doesn't seem overly quick or strong, took a few decent grabs but nothing that was super exciting. Same as Dempsey can't for the life of me see "it". I hope I'm wrong and often am so would love to be proved wrong but can only judge based on what I've seen. You guys weren't wrong about Conway so maybe Dempsey has yet to flick that switch.

Knevitt has shown a few flashes of something but given his slender frame and being an inside mid his whole junior career I'm willing to give him a fair bit more time in the gym before I throw him out

 

[Turbocat]

Knevitt has shown a few flashes of something but given his slender frame and being an inside mid his whole junior career I'm willing to give him a fair bit more time in the gym before I throw him out

I hesitate using Haw as a reference for anything but it days past players like Tuck spent years getting ready. They will play him when he pushes past those in front of him. The only pressure on him is new talent arrives each year... as we see with Mannagh.

 

[Mr Meow]

Difference in the side for tomorrow night compared to last time we played the Saints:

In: Blicavs Stanley J.Henry Clark Mannagh Dempsey
Out: Bews Bowes Neale Parfitt Ratugolea Smith

Free kick tally in the game last year was 20-5 St. Kilda's way too.

In: Dangerfield and Cameron not being cooked from their heroic efforts (while clearly still playing injured) against Collingwood

Out: knowing the season is probably already over and surgeries are about to be booked for 10 players.

 

[thecatattack]

Knevitt has shown a few flashes of something but given his slender frame and being an inside mid his whole junior career I'm willing to give him a fair bit more time in the gym before I throw him out

Knevitt will be an amazing player for us. His poise, running and marking ability will go a long away.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I don't know what anyone saw in him to begin with but only ever saw him play AFL, doesn't seem overly quick or strong, took a few decent grabs but nothing that was super exciting. Same as Dempsey can't for the life of me see "it". I hope I'm wrong and often am so would love to be proved wrong but can only judge based on what I've seen. You guys weren't wrong about Conway so maybe Dempsey has yet to flick that switch.

Dempsey made the VFL TOTY last year as a kid in his second year.

There was a game around mid year where he just put up video game numbers. 5 goals, 30 touches with another 3 behinds to go with it.

There's no snake oil here. Nobody is trying to sell you on selective snippets of play or 'flashes' that are up to interpretation.

The facts are right in front of you. The kid dominated at VFL level and looks poised to bring some of that form to the seniors in just his third season.

The excitement is he's already as good as he is without even taking footy seriously until getting to Geelong with his basketball commitments.

You match his talent & untapped potential with the insatiable work ethic he's got and it's no surprise why folks are excited.

 

[rocker_oz33]

Knevitt has shown a few flashes of something but given his slender frame and being an inside mid his whole junior career I'm willing to give him a fair bit more time in the gym before I throw him out

He built more like Joel Corey .
He'll get stronger but he'll won't get really big imo

 

[CHAWKTS]

Difference in the side for tomorrow night compared to last time we played the Saints:

In: Blicavs Stanley J.Henry Clark Mannagh Dempsey
Out: Bews Bowes Neale Parfitt Ratugolea Smith

Free kick tally in the game last year was 20-5 St. Kilda's way too.

6 changes. And maybe rose coloured glasses every one of them an upgrade (other than Smith)

 

[dangerwood]

A bit harsh. He only played in one practice game - the first one, against Carlton. I couldn't watch it live and didn't bother watching the replay because it sounded horrendous. Maybe he was particularly bad that day, but it sounded like most players were a bit rusty (and hardly high intensity).

All the other players you mentioned played in the main preseason game against Essendon.

I agree that he lost some confidence after being dropped last year and perhaps hasn't got it back yet.

A bit harsh? Someone asked what happened to Knevitt and I said he was a bit of non event in the praccy games whilst conceding praccy games shouldn't hold too much weight.
There were lots of poor players but knevitt isn't a seasoned performer who could afford to coast, the players that went past him to earn a call up round 1 all showed something in the Carlton game. Clark, Neale, Dempsey and Mannagh all played well (Clark butchered it but he played well).
It was a fair assessment and not even that critical of Knevitt. You didn't even watch it.

 

[dazbroncos]

Game day peeps!!

Game Day - Rd 1 Geelong V StKilda Sat 16th Mar 2024 730pm @ GMHBA

After what seems weeks of games… because it’s been weeks of games lol… we are up. I’ll add more to this in a bit.. but it’s game day but he’s and as of now.. we are keeping score. A few interesting selections and omissions but that’s what we will see in 24… irs good to move forward. Go...

www.bigfooty.com

Go Catters