CatToTheFuture
Brownlow Medallist
- Aug 18, 2018
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And then they took the aged end out the back and shot it
Preview Rd 1 Geelong V StKilda Sat 16th Mar 2024 730pm @ GMHBA
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catempire
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That’s a decent sized straw to be grasping at.
That our average age was misleading due to skewness?
I was referring to your "there isn't any way to spin it. We are old" initial comment, which is very much along the lines of "the cliff is here, too many veterans, who's going to replace them all?" - and that has been hammered out every year for the last 15.
Catumpire in fact did find a way to spin it with the skewness. Grouping it into 3 blocks the way I did, or for games played, I find more enlightening than just a mean age. I'll take your word for it that North supporters used skewness as a defence. We can take a look at what they had under the hood below 30 years old in 2017. I don't think it was much.
Richmond are very much in rebuild mode - supposedly 2 years further in than us - and fielded 8 veterans aged 30 or over, the same number we will this weekend.
Wasn't being snarky, I was being literal, they would point to Boomer being 37, Petrie, Dal Santo, Waite 33 and say that it skewed their average age. I don't think it can be disputed that we field an objectively old 22 regardless of whatever your favourite method of calculating central tendency is. Our last 4 years are amoungst the top 5 oldest average (feel free to calculate the median or skewness you might prove me wrong) fielded teams in AFL history (named in the 22 not squad age) right in the middle is North from that era. But the most concerning part of the screenshot isn't the average age but that we finished 12th last year. No problem being old if you are you still winning.
I just think the age of the list has become irrelevant. I don’t think ‘list age’ would be a strong predictor of future premierships.
I don’t think anyone saw the Geelong or Magpie Premiership coming 2 years ago today.
Many other teams had more exciting list profiles than these two if you wind the clock back to March 2022.
I don’t think anyone saw the Geelong or Magpie Premiership coming 2 years ago today.
Many other teams had more exciting list profiles than these two if you wind the clock back to March 2022.
- Dec 19, 2015
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I don't think the age of list means we can't win it, I do think it means we still have work to do going forward if we want to stay competitive and I would feel more confident if some of our better players were younger.
Blitz and Guthrie both injured last year, Guthrie already injured this year. Bodies won't hold up forever and our 30+ players are genuine stars of the comp. Brownlows, multiple AAs, Coleman's they aren't run of the mill players and I think it's realistic not to expect the ones coming through will be equals.
I still think we are a chance this year but that chance still relies on some of those older players playing well and staying fit. I'm happy with how we are transitioning though.
That is what I would do…but club won’t. Mannagh will be sub.
Which, despite it being different to what I want, I think is ok. He is mature and has shown in his two practise games he can have impact immediately (which is something Dempsey has NOT shown - he seems to need to build into games, which is ok when you are not sub!).
I do think we will find Dempsey/Miers pushing right up the ground though
We're going to see more of this though. Geelong and Collingwood have set the template. Sports science has come on and clubs manage their veterans better.
Our number of 30+ in the best 22 went from 4 in 2011 (I admit, I remembered us older, but we had a lot in their late 20s) to around 7-8 as the next few years came (2012-2015). Then it shuffled back down to 4 or so 2017-2019, then the spike back to 7-9 during 2020-2024. It's naturally going to ebb back down a bit over the next two seasons.
I don't see a refusal to recruit and bed in multiple new players from the 18-23 and 24-29 year old range over the past half a dozen years. There's 2-4 new ones a season.
Anyway I guess this thread is getting off track.
Can't wait for this Saturday - I'm taking my 4-year-old son to his first game. I've trained him up so that yelling "Go Cats!" is almost second nature to him already 
- Dec 19, 2015
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That's awesome. I hope it's a great win for both of you.Can't wait for this Saturday - I'm taking my 4-year-old son to his first game. I've trained him up so that yelling "Go Cats!" is almost second nature to him already
Ok. So completely useless analysis but I have to do something as I am nervous already!
I graded who had the better “line” and Cats won’t 5 to 2. Although could be 4-3 as our half forward vs there half back is close?
What does it mean…prob nothing! But
I graded who had the better “line” and Cats won’t 5 to 2. Although could be 4-3 as our half forward vs there half back is close?
What does it mean…prob nothing! But
CatToTheFuture
Brownlow Medallist
- Aug 18, 2018
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Oh god, I just realised your test is actually Close
- Dec 19, 2015
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I think theres some Geelong bias here. Stewarts obviously elite but a stkilda supporter would argue King and Membrey trump Dekoning and Guthrie.
Interchange depends if Touhys still got it. Windhager and Phillipou could cause some damage.
On history our centre line is better and wins if Holmes has improved like we hope. Wood and Hill had better years last year but if Blitz is back to his best I'd give it to us.
Followers is a big L to us but I'm hopeful Clark in particular can show a bit and reduce it.
- Dec 19, 2015
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Think it depends on how well the likes of Holmes, Bruhn and Clark can hold up.
I think the “Dangerfield forward line saviour” is done and dusted now. He’s just too much of a shitte kick to be impactful and don’t recall him ever having a great game up forward besides that miracle game against Hawks. Far more useful as an inside bull. His best is still elite
Guilty. Hard not to be biased.
What makes me nervous is how am rating a lot on the Geelong players on what they have done rather than huge confidence that they can still do it!
Although on the flip side we do have a bunch of players who could show significant growth.
Indeed for us not only to win this game but have a good year we have to have a bunch of young players show significant development
If we can’t beat this average, middle of the road team at home then we are just making up the numbers this year.
They have a shocking record here.
They have 9 players under 50 games.
Sinclair who I’d say is there best player is out.
Their biggest asset is speed and our ground is a shape that stifles that.
If they can take us down R1 at home then good luck to them… but we are simply no good anymore if they do.
I’m all in on us winning.
They have a shocking record here.
They have 9 players under 50 games.
Sinclair who I’d say is there best player is out.
Their biggest asset is speed and our ground is a shape that stifles that.
If they can take us down R1 at home then good luck to them… but we are simply no good anymore if they do.
I’m all in on us winning.
- Dec 19, 2015
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I'm excited to see a full game from Clark and if Holmes can live up to some of the hype and really start being a bankable good player. Dempsey and Mannagh could be a real addition too.
No doubt saints supporters will be anticipating how good Phillipou, Owens, Henry, Windhager and Wilson can be for them.
CatToTheFuture
Brownlow Medallist
- Aug 18, 2018
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I don't think there's too many forward spots we could fit him in on merit
See…even though I agree…that just makes me more nervous for a loss!
catempire
Premium Platinum
It is an objectively old average age. Nobody disputes that. But it’s not much different to what we have fielded recently. The 2022 flag side was older - 28yr 7mths.
The key difference now, if there is one, is that it is a more balanced age list profile with much higher quality bottom age talent than we have had for a decade.
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