Preview Rd 8 Geelong v Melbourne Sat May 4th 730pm @ MCG

[nohairandfair]

No they don’t lose money when favourites win.

The bookies will set the odds to try and encourage as much action (on both teams) as possible. For a team like Geelong who the betting public are sick of, they need to inflate the odds to encourage more people to bet on them.

If the bookies find themselves over exposed to either result they will lay off their potential losses with other books. They will rarely be exposed to a losing position of any magnitude.

Because of the small premium built into both sides of the bet, and their ability to lay their losses off, the bookies sole goal is to increase betting turnover. They clip the ticket on every bet.

Yep, it's a combination of encouraging betting and then balancing the books. With odds of 1.81 and 2.04, the betting agency has a 4.3% margin built in.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I reckon it's time to play Conway. We're 7-0. The difference between Stanley and Conway is marginal. The chance picking Conway costs us a game is slim.

So what's the best move? Play Conway as often as his body can safely handle. And play Stanley just enough to have him cherry ripe for finals. Then decide at the end of the year who is our number 1.

 

[Play it Sam]

Wow, so Pittonet is actually an OK player? From what I’ve been reading on here, you’d swear he was completely hopeless and that to be beaten by him is the most shameful thing that could happen to you.

Originally from Hawthorn- He's come back last year from injury and is combining really well with TDK, and at times, Mc Kay.
They still run well down the rankings of individual ruckmen in the data, with Stanley somewhere in between them. Gawn by all measures, is undoubtedly the best ruck in the competition.

If you are interested, here is an article suggesting the new 2024 ruck rule adjustment is impacting players.
It may or may not have affected Stanley, but it appears we need bulls in that position now, and gets from stoppages becoming more important.

Turn off the tap: The small tweak changing ruckwork

Riley Beveridge has assessed the impact of the change in interpretation for ruck contests

www.afl.com.au

 

[iameviljez]

basically should have a couple of great runners, an offensive gun, a defensive gun, and a tall enough to play ruck, ie 5 subs

Yeah pretty much.

The issue is more so that you don't pick "wicketkeeper" type role players as subs, where you can't afford to carry too many of them on the field. So, you don't pick a third key tall as sub, you don't pick a ruckman.

 

[witsend]

Out:
Hawkins - Managed
Danger - Injured
Stanley - Managed

In:
Stewart
Conway
Neale - For Hawkins and gives us another ruck option chop out to combat Gawn. You could then have a 3 way rotation forward/ruck with the active ruck pushing back hard into d50.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[CHAWKTS]

Out:
Hawkins - Managed
Danger - Injured
Stanley - Managed

In:
Stewart
Conway
Neale - For Hawkins and gives us another ruck option chop out to combat Gawn. You could then have a 3 way rotation forward/ruck with the active ruck pushing back hard into d50.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Interesting…all makes sense. But it is so hard right now to guess what the club will do with a full list.

The over riding view I get from people watching the VFL is that Rohan should come in. I just watched the highlights of the last few weeks VFL and then Rohan highlights - what struck me is that Rohan was playing out of the square. His marks were on the lead or against very undersized defenders. It was a role more likely to replace Hawkins than anyone else. But we have Neale for that?

So to me the in is either Neale or Rohan and right now Rohan can probably add more versatility - maybe as the sub (which is frustrating for me as I think we need to get a read of Neale at AFL level for the future). Rohan has shown he can even pinch hit in the Ruck as needed

And I am not 100% Stewart is coming back this week (I don’t know anything)…so for now I just have one change…

Out Danger
In Rohan (to sub)

If Stewart is right then obviously he comes in and I think that would be to manage maybe a younger player (I reckon they keep persisting with Hawkins to get him back into form unless he has niggles)

If they don’t pick Rohan this week, that will be very interesting….and suggest the line coaches are having more influence and want youth and runners over that experience…

 

[supahoops]

Remember Rohan playing out of the goal square in u/18’s, wouldn’t be the worst option given our current game style.

 

[cats_09]

Re: Rohan

He was playing out of the square a lot last season even when Hawkins was in the team - it would often be Cameron starting at CHF, Rohan in the square and Hawkins somewhere in between

We've seen O. Henry starting from the square a bit this season, in a similar role to what Rohan played last year - if both of them are in the same side, the question may be who between them two play from the square

 

[iameviljez]

Remember Rohan playing out of the goal square in u/18’s, wouldn’t be the worst option given our current game style.

Except we already have Ollie Henry sitting deeper, which is working an absolute treat. We could change that up, but it does have other knock-on effects.

The only part of our forward line that isn't working at the moment is really the big Tomahawk, but if he goes out (whether managed or not), the obvious replacement isn't Rohan, it's Neale.

 

[CHAWKTS]

Remember Rohan playing out of the goal square in u/18’s, wouldn’t be the worst option given our current game style.

Agree in terms of structure. Issue for me is the choice then is between Henry and Rohan as both play out of the square and attack the lead. Frankly I even like Stengle getting a mismatch in the square too.

And then of course there is Neale who I want to get a game. He maybe is more versatile but can’t have him Hawkins Henry and Rohan in the same forward line - just no room.

I am sure the coaches are going to continue to have very very interesting conversations. Managing a player a week will help but at some stage that gets hard too.

 

[iameviljez]

They aren’t set by the money, they are set to encourage as much betting action as possible.

Betting on Geelong is boring, so they are jacking the odds to encourage more action.

They are set to effectively rig the game as a win-win for the agency no matter which team gets up.

Hence, if more money goes in on Geelong (for example), they push out the payout on Melbourne to encourage punters to put money on the Dees, hence insuring them against a Geelong victory.

That's why odds move in and out - they try to effectively balance the wager vs payout for all outcomes.

 

[Finknottle]

Interesting…all makes sense. But it is so hard right now to guess what the club will do with a full list.

The over riding view I get from people watching the VFL is that Rohan should come in. I just watched the highlights of the last few weeks VFL and then Rohan highlights - what struck me is that Rohan was playing out of the square. His marks were on the lead or against very undersized defenders. It was a role more likely to replace Hawkins than anyone else. But we have Neale for that?

So to me the in is either Neale or Rohan and right now Rohan can probably add more versatility - maybe as the sub (which is frustrating for me as I think we need to get a read of Neale at AFL level for the future). Rohan has shown he can even pinch hit in the Ruck as needed

And I am not 100% Stewart is coming back this week (I don’t know anything)…so for now I just have one change…

Out Danger
In Rohan (to sub)

If Stewart is right then obviously he comes in and I think that would be to manage maybe a younger player (I reckon they keep persisting with Hawkins to get him back into form unless he has niggles)

If they don’t pick Rohan this week, that will be very interesting….and suggest the line coaches are having more influence and want youth and runners over that experience…

The one thing Rohan has that none of the other medium to tall forwards at Geelong has is closing speed. Just his presence makes the defence nervous and rushed which leads to turnovers. Rohan is a weapon but alas is injury prone.

 

[Chinacats]

Good audit for our mids against Gawn , Oliver , Viney & co…. And our efficient forwards against the May & Lever led Dees defence…
Can we kick 80+ with limited I50’s and a stern defence?
Good audit….

 

[you pick one]

Remember Rohan playing out of the goal square in u/18’s, wouldn’t be the worst option given our current game style.

Imagine Rohan and Stengle isolated forward on a quick break off halfback put down the glasses.

 

[Hamingja]

Yep, it's a combination of encouraging betting and then balancing the books. With odds of 1.81 and 2.04, the betting agency has a 4.3% margin built in.

There is practically no opinion in the odds these days from the bookmakers end. Bookmaker A has a stats model which will generate the starting odds. They will compare that to what Betfair, bookmaker B, C & D are offering and adjust to be in line with the market. Then odds will change based on new info (team changes, weather forecast) and weight of money from punters. Even when you watch the races and the traders will have a "lay of the day" they still won't offer better odds than market, there is no one actually bookmaking these days.

 

[ShaunWDT]

I have no idea why there’s so much love for Hardie.
Yes he’s getting a lot of the footy but I’d prefer VFL Parfitt over VFL Hardie

I have no problem with Hardie but you do that on weak opposition not arguably the best midfield in the comp when we are already missing a mid

 

[you pick one]

Except we already have Ollie Henry sitting deeper, which is working an absolute treat. We could change that up, but it does have other knock-on effects.

The only part of our forward line that isn't working at the moment is really the big Tomahawk, but if he goes out (whether managed or not), the obvious replacement isn't Rohan, it's Neale.

Outside of the club it appears to be Neale inside the selecters will factor in which is more likely to have a bigger impact on gaining the 4 points on offer and right now it's likely Rohan v this opponent.Neale unless injured will get a game in the next month I predict and should see more service in the back half of the year as rotations go into full swing.

 

[supahoops]

Imagine Rohan and Stengle isolated forward on a quick break off halfback put down the glasses.

This is what gives me hope post-Hawkins, may not necessarily be Rohan but Neale has wheels as well as being an aerial threat, at least to bring the ball to ground. Vs Carlton a few of the entries were dump kick-last resort type entries which didn’t suit Hawkins at all and Neale may have got to a few more contests. Going forward this season absolutely Rohan & Stengle deepest would give oppo defenders and coaches nightmares. One reason why I’m happy to kick our R1 down the road this year as I feel Neale/Edwards, Mannagh/Wiltshire, Knevitt, Clark, COS, Humphries, Mullin et al give us the players in waiting to not miss it. Throw in LDU the following trade period. Plenty of ammunition to go hard for another big name acquisition.

 

[iameviljez]

the selecters will factor in which is more likely to have a bigger impact on gaining the 4 points on offer

Yes, and no. We're 7 and 0 and that takes a lot of the pressure off.

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

My word , may have been mentioned on here already but Conway in the VFL last weekend - 20 disposals, 28 hitouts, three goals.

= Absolutely we should be playing Conway !

 

[calder_daddy]

I have no problem with Hardie but you do that on weak opposition not arguably the best midfield in the comp when we are already missing a mid

I also have no problem with him but it’s a tough ask for him to come in this week or next
He’s been throwing up good VFL numbers but so he should
He’s playing against kids mainly and he’s a mature age

 

[magic_johnson!]

This is what gives me hope post-Hawkins, may not necessarily be Rohan but Neale has wheels as well as being an aerial threat, at least to bring the ball to ground. Vs Carlton a few of the entries were dump kick-last resort type entries which didn’t suit Hawkins at all and Neale may have got to a few more contests. Going forward this season absolutely Rohan & Stengle deepest would give oppo defenders and coaches nightmares. One reason why I’m happy to kick our R1 down the road this year as I feel Neale/Edwards, Mannagh/Wiltshire, Knevitt, Clark, COS, Humphries, Mullin et al give us the players in waiting to not miss it. Throw in LDU the following trade period. Plenty of ammunition to go hard for another big name acquisition.

Against north Neale won an easy 1 on 1 in the 50 from a fast break due to his speed in addition to his size and kicked a goal.

We had a a similar break in the third quarter with Hawkins against Carlton, and it ended in an intercept mark to weitering. The kick could have been more to hawkins’ advantage, but I couldn’t help but think that Neale could have manufactured a goal there.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Against north Neale won an easy 1 on 1 in the 50 from a fast break due to his speed in addition to his size and kicked a goal.

We had a a similar break in the third quarter with Hawkins against Carlton, and it ended in an intercept mark to weitering. The kick could have been more to hawkins’ advantage, but I couldn’t help but think that Neale could have manufactured a goal there.

Neale really does suit the game style we have at an attributes level. We do need to see it in action a bit more though

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

Against north Neale won an easy 1 on 1 in the 50 from a fast break due to his speed in addition to his size and kicked a goal.

We had a a similar break in the third quarter with Hawkins against Carlton, and it ended in an intercept mark to weitering. The kick could have been more to hawkins’ advantage, but I couldn’t help but think that Neale could have manufactured a goal there.

I'm with you on this. At minimum Neale would have turned it into a ball up.

 

[supahoops]

I’m not, and I don’t think any of us should be writing Hawkins off for this season but the stars seem to be aligning for Neale in regards to our game style and having a chop out ruck to support Conway in seasons to come.